光學傳送元件市場分析預測：2005 年 7 月

本報告已在2011年07月19日停止出版。

簡介

目錄

1.0 Introduction

This report chronicles some of the latest investments that have been made in the active optical components sectors in recent months and analyzes their meaning.

2.0 Why They are Investing

These new investments are encouraging, just from the point of view in that they show a renewed confidence in the components market. This market certainly needs this

boost-in total, it is probably about one-fifth of where it was five years ago and it could be another decade before it gets back to where it used to be. But why are serious VCs investing now?

CIR research indicates that the answers to these questions are symptomatic of an industry in maturity:

• Many of the deals listed above are in the tunable and/or low-cost laser space and the investments made are simply old investors coming back to provide more money for a firm that had proved it could win real customers.
• The funding for CyOptics is presumably intended to smooth over the consolidation of the old TriQuint optical business into CyOptics existing operations - consolidation being a phenomenon that inevitably is associated with industry maturity.
• The money is going to firms with established technology. This does not necessarily mean that manufacturers of OC-3 gear should jump up and down with glee and expect to see VCs fall over themselves to give them the big bucks. What is likely to get the money is not old technology, but rather those technologies that were bleeding edge during the optical era and have proved themselves since. Tunable lasers are the best example. (Sadly, its quite hard to find too many technologies that emerged during the optical boom and actually made it to commercialization.)
• Unlike the optical era, where the money was going for R&D and development work - not to mention extravagant parties at trade shows - today new investment is for ramping up production.

3.0 Future Technology Investment Outlook

As we have seen, investment money that is going into the optical components market now is primarily for sustaining purposes. This raises the question of whether there will soon be a round of new investment in new technologies. We believe that there is some possibility of this. We see two areas that are potentially important in this regard, though neither are probably short-term moneymakers:

• Low cost optics (for interconnects and FTTx)
• 40-Gbps networking.

A third area - quantum dots - which has been essentially of interest primarily in the R&D community until recently, also now looks like it might have a shot at being a commercializable technology.

Table of Contents (update July 2005)

• 1.0 Introduction
• 2.0 Why They are Investing
• 3.0 Future Technology Investment Outlook
• Exhibit 1-1
• Recent Investments in the Optical Component Sector

Table of Contents (update May 2004>

Chapter One: Introduction

• Goals of this Report
• Scope and Coverage of this Report
• Methodology of this Report
• Issues Relating to Captive Markets
• Forecasting Philosophy

Chapter Two: Key Market Trends

• Back to the Future
• Weve Got to Admit its Getting Better
• Mega-Drivers
• Return of "Cool Tech" - But This Time Its Useful
• Tunables: Back from the World of Dreams
• Optical Integration: The Time is Near
• VCSELs and Other "New" Lasers
• Diversify or Die?
• Summary of Key Technology and Other Trends

Chapter Three: Suppliers and Market Shares

• A Peek at Some Financials
• Market Share Analysis
• Expect Continued Consolidation
• Prospects for New Entrants
• Summary of Key Corporate Trends

Chapter Four: Forecasts and Market Analysis

• All Data is Worldwide for 2003 to 2008 and Broken out by Data Rate, Reach and Network Segment
• Ports Shipped by Type of Components Used
• Components by Reach, Technology and Market Segment
• Projections for FTTx Components

List of Forecasts:

• Laser Forecasts by Protocol (Ethernet, WDM, SONET/SDH, Fibre Channel)
• Laser Forecasts by Technology (DFB, DBR, ECL, widely tunable, narrowly tunable, VCSELs, other)
• Detector Forecasts by Protocol (Ethernet, WDM, SONET/SDH, Fibre Channel)
• Detector Forecasts by Technology (PIN, APD)
• Modulators by Protocol (Ethernet, WDM, SONET/SDH, Fibre Channel)
• Modulators by Technology (Optoelectronics, Electro-Absorption)

Companies Discussed in Report

• Agilent
• Agility
• Avanex
• Azna
• Bookham
• Civcom
• Cube Optics
• Eblana
• Finisar
• Fujitsu
• Hitachi
• Infineon
• iolon
• Intel
• JDS Uniphase
• Mitsubishi
• NEC
• NEL
• OCPI
• Oki
• Oplink
• OpNext
• Picolight
• Princeton Optronics
• Santur
• Syntune
• Sumitomo/Excelight
• Teralux
• Triquint

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