Abstract
CIR has been following the beyond 10G market for more than three years now,
starting when the first rumors surfaced that the IEEE would be working on a
100G project. As a result, we have garnered significant insight into the
products that are being developed for this rapidly emerging market as well as
the thinking of the power users who will be the first to deploy 40/100 GigE.
In this report, as in its previous reports that CIR has published on the
40/100 GigE market, we examine the business opportunities for all module and
component products aimed at the 40/100 GigE space. These include transceivers,
cabling, lasers, TOSA/ROSAs, WDM devices, dispersion compensation and error
correction devices and networking silicon.
In this latest CIR study of the 40/100 Gbps market, we also provide up to the
minute commentary on the strategies of the leading players in the 40/100 Gbps
including component/module makers, OEMs and service providers. And, as with
previous CIR reports on 40/100 Gbps we include a granular eight-year volume
and value shipment projection.
However, this is not just an update of CIR' s earlier reports, but a completely
new report that reflects the fact that 2010 is the first time that equipment
makers and end users will have the chance to actually work with and deploy
40/100 GigE. The 40/100 GigE standard is supposed to be published in June 2010
and pre-standard devices are expected to be available as early as in the first
quarter 2010. In fact, we believe that the OFC/NFOEC 2010 trade show and
conference could turn out to be the “coming out party” for 40 and 100G initial
product offerings. And as CIR has long stressed, we have always viewed 40/100
GigE as a networking protocol that will eventually cater to a mass market that
will extend well beyond the high-performance computing centers and server
mega-farms that were the original impetus for the standards making in this
area. One area that receives particular attention is how 40/100 GigE will fit
into the data center environment in which InfiniBand and Fibre Channel has
often been the preferred way of doing things; not Ethernet.
However, this report goes well beyond looking at traditional datacom markets
for Ethernet and also provides extensive analysis of the market for 40/100
GigE in the carrier market. Until recently, Carrier Ethernet was close to an
oxymoron. However, many of the major carriers are now talking about near-term
100 Gbps upgrades and, because there is nothing else available, they can only
be referring to Ethernet deployment. With this in mind, the report raises and
provides preliminary answers to the question as to what the 40/100 G products
for the carrier market will look like? In providing these answers the report
also takes a look at what the new found cooperation between the ITU-T, OIF and
IEEE will really mean to carrier marketplace for 40/100 Gbps products.
The analyst for this report has had many years experience as both an engineer
and a marketing manager in the optical module and cabling business. As a
result, this report provides in depth coverage from the perspective of an
insider; someone who understands the commercialization process for this kind
of products as well as what it takes to market transceivers and components to
OEMs in today' s economic environment. Our analyst also happens to have a deep
understanding of the latest trends and requirements in large data centers, the
market that will be key to a take off in the 40/100 GigE market.
Methodology and Information Sources for this Report
CIR prides itself on its independent analysis and level-headed forecasting. We
interview representatives from not only the prominent components suppliers,
but equipment manufacturers, service providers, standards development
personnel and even end users when appropriate. Facts are gathered, analyzed
and checked with common sense and extensive secondary research.
Secondary research for this report consisted of reviewing many sources
including corporate Web sites, research journals, SEC reports, standards
information, industry trade shows, industry conferences, industry marketing
groups and previous CIR reports.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
- E.1 Market Drivers for 40G and 100G Ethernet
- E.1.1 The Emerging Ethernet Paradigm
- E.1.2 Video Everywhere
- E.1.3 Data Centers
- E.1.4 High Performance Computing (HPC)
- E.1.5 Social Medium, Cloud Computing and Managed Hosting
- E.1.6 40G and 100G Ethernet Transport
- E.2 Standards and MSAs Winners and Losers
- E.2.1 Standards Evolution
- E.2.2 MSA Evolution
- E.3 Likely Adoption Patterns for 40/100G
- E.3.1 Adoption of 40G Ethernet
- E.3.2 Adoption of OC-768
- E.3.3 Adoption of 100G Ethernet
- E.4 Technology Options for High-Speed Networking
- E.4.1 Opportunities in Parallelism
- E.4.2 Opportunities in Seriality
- E.4.3 Materials, Manufacturing Processes and Component Types for
High-Speed Networks
- E.5 Summary of Key Opportunities in 40G and 100G Ethernet
- E.5.1 Lasers, Transmitters and TOSAs
- E.5.2 Detectors, Receivers and ROSAs
- E.5.3 Modulators
- E.5.4 WDM Products
- E.5.5 Media
- E.5.6 Networking Silicon
- E.6 Summary of Forecasts
Chapter One: Introduction
- 1.1 Background to this Report
- 1.1.1 Market Support for 40- and 100G
- 1.2 Objectives of this Report
- 1.3 Scope of this Report
- 1.4 Methodology and Information Sources for Report
- 1.5 Plan of this Report
Chapter Two: Higher-Speed Ethernet and Its Applications Drivers
- 2.1 Introduction: Massively Growing Needs from Data Centers and ISPs
- 2.2 Video On the Rise: The Business to Consumer Switch
- 2.2.1 Consumer Video: The Real Video Driver for 40/100 GigE
- 2.2.2 Business Video: Not What We Thought it Would Be
- 2.3 Data Centers and Enterprise Networks: Data Rate and Bandwidth
Requirements
- 2.3.1 Aggregation and Faster Interfaces
- 2.3.2 Servers, Switches and Storage: Where Technologies Happen
First
- 2.3.3 The Impact of Convergence in the Data Center and FCoE
- 2.4 High-Performance Computing: The People Who Brought Us 100 GigE
- 2.4.1 Bandwidth Requirements for HPC
- 2.4.2 InfiniBand versus Ethernet versus Fibre Channel?
- 2.5 Central Offices, POPs and Internet Exchanges
- 2.5.1 VSR OC-768: The Old-Fashioned Way to 40 Gbps
- 2.6 Long-Haul, Metro and Access Networks
- 2.6.1 Carrier 100G: What Will It Look Like?
- 2.7 Technical Requirements for 40G and 100G Networks
- 2.8 Design Architectures for 40G and 100G
- 2.9 Multiple PMD Types Supported by a Single Connector
Chapter Three: Evolution of Technology for 40G and 100G Networks
- 3.1 Introduction
- 3.2 40GBase-KR4 (1m Backplane) Technology
- 3.3 40GBase-CR4 and 100GBase-CR10 (10m Copper Cable) Technology
- 3.4 40GBase-SR4 and 100GBase-SR10 (100m LOMF) Technology
- 3.5 40GBase-LR4 (10km SM Fiber) Technology
- 3.6 100GBase-LR4 Technology
- 3.7 100GBase-ER4 Technology
- 3.8 Future Variants for 40G and 100G Ethernet
- 3.8.1 Future 40G Variants
- 3.8.2 Future 100G Variants
- 3.9 Basic Components for Higher-Speed Ethernet
- 3.9.1 Integration Imperative
- 3.9.2 Parallel vs. Serial Transmission
- 3.10 The Role for Optical Integration and Silicon Photonics
- 3.10.1 Materials Platforms for Optical Integration
- 3.11 Potential for Serial and Parallel Solutions for High-speed
Optical Networks
- 3.12 Lasers, TOSAs and Modulators
- 3.12.1 Advanced Modulation Schemes
- 3.13 Detectors, Receivers and ROSAs
- 3.14 WDM and Waveguide Products
- 3.15 Amplifications and Dispersion Compensation for Next-Generation
Networking
- 3.16 Media
- 3.16.1 Multi-Mode Fiber
- 3.16.2 Single-Mode Fiber
- 3.16.3 The Future of Parallel Optics
- 3.16.4 Active Optical Cabling
- 3.16.5 The Future for Copper?
Chapter Four: Evolution of Standards and MSAs Beyond 10-Gig
- 4.1 Introduction
- 4.2 The Higher Speed Ethernet Task Group
- 4.2.1 The IEEE process for 40G and 100G Ethernet
- 4.2.2 40G and 100G Ethernet Standards Development Objectives
- 4.3 Data Center Network Convergence
- 4.3.1 Converged Enhanced Ethernet
- 4.3.2 Fibre Channel over Ethernet
- 4.3.3 Higher-speed Fibre Channel
- 4.4 What Will Be the Role of ITU/Carrier Standards?
- 4.4.1 Ethernet and SONET/SDH Evolution
- 4.4.2 Ethernet in a SONET/SDH World and the OTN
- 4.5 The Role of OIF
- 4.6 Use and Evolution of MSAs for 40- and 100-Gbps Networks
- 4.6.1 CX4 Connectors
- 4.6.2 Quad Small Form Factor Pluggable (QSFP) MSA
- 4.6.3 CXP MSA
- 4.6.4 CFP MSA
Chapter Five: Five-Year Forecasts of 40-Gbps and 100-Gbps Data Networks
- 5.1 Introduction
- 5.1.1 A Note on Pre-Standard Products
- 5.1.2 A Timetable for Next-Generation Ethernet
- 5.1.3 A View on 10-Gbps Networking
- 5.2 Forecasts for Evolution of 40-Gbps and 100-Gbps Ethernet: 2010
to 2017
- 5.2.1 Server Infrastructure Growth
- 5.2.2 Server Penetration Projections
- 5.2.3 Switch Port Projections
- 5.3 Forecasts for Evolution of 40-Gbps and 100-Gbps Pricing and
Market Value
- 5.3.1 Forecasts for 40 Gbps and 100 Gbps by Application Type
- 5.4 The Future at 40 Gbps
- 5.5 A Note on Serial Solutions
- 5.6 Components Opportunity Forecast
Acronyms and Abbreviations Used in this Report
About the Author
