Abstract
Report Summary
The Chinese government has awarded 3G licenses for TD-SCDMA, WCDMA, and CDMA
2000 to China Mobile, China Unicom, and China Telecom, respectively,
effectively bringing China into the 3G era. From the point of view of
technical evolution, what' s next for 3G? In China, the situation is clear, as
both the Chinese government and the three principal telecommunication
operators have announced their support of LTE. However, the LTE strategy of
each operator varies according to their current positions in the
telecommunications market and their currently adopted 3G technologies.
In this report, we first provide an overview of the current mobile
telecommunications market both globally and in China, followed by a brief
introduction to LTE technology and In-Stat' s analysis of the Chinese
government' s possible spectrum allocation plan for LTE. The report then
analyzes in detail the driving forces behind LTE and the challenges it faces
in penetrating the Chinese market. We also analyze the LTE strategies of each
of China' s three principal operators. Finally, we provide forecasts for LTE
terminal shipments and subscribers in China for the years 2009 to 2013.
The report also provides a brief introduction to infrastructure, terminal, and
chipset vendors who are involved in the LTE industrial chain.
Whose needs does this report address?
- Mobile telecommunications operators
- LTE infrastructure vendors
- LTE terminal and chipset vendors
- Value-added services provided by mobile broadband operators
What issues does this report address?
- The current status of the mobile telecommunications market worldwide and
in China
- The current state of LTE technology
- The spectrum assignment for LTE in China
- Driving forces and challenges for LTE in China
- The current status of China' s mobile telecommunications operators and
their strategies on LTE
- LTE subscriber forecasts
- LTE terminal shipment forecasts
HIGHLIGHTS
- LTE is the only route to 4G in China. TD-LTE, one of the LTE
technologies, will receive much more support than LTEFDD.
- In 2010, China Mobile will use TD-LTE to construct a precommercial LTE
network. In 2011, it will launch commercial LTE network construction on a
small scale.
- China Unicom and China Telecom will begin LTE network construction later
than China Mobile, likely in 2012.
- In-Stat predicts that China' s LTE subscribers will number no more than
500,000 by 2013, and that 80% of these will be China Mobile subscribers.
Table of Contents
- Executive Summary
- Mobile Telecommunications Market Overview
- GSM Still Dominates Mobile World
- Bright Future of Mobile Broadband
- Telecom Industry Benefits From Government Investment
- Technology Adoptions in China After 3G Launch
- 3G Accelerating in China
- Analysis of LTE Technology
- Definition
- Key Characteristics
- LTE-FDD: Widely Supported Worldwide
- TD-LTE: Chinese for LTE-TDD
- Architecture Evolution from 3G to LTE/SAE
- Possible Routes to LTE
- Different Ways, Similar Cost
- Option 1: TD-SCDMA to LTE
- Option 2: GSM to LTE
- Option 3: CDMA One to LTE
- Spectrum Analysis
- Global Spectrum Allocation Overview
- Analysis of China' s LTE Spectrum Allocation
- China' s Spectrum Allocation Overview
- Three in Five Frequency Bands Assigned to LTE?
- Driving Forces and Challenges for LTE in China
- Driving Forces
- Fast Growth of Mobile Internet Use and Data Traffic
- Increasing Bandwidth Attracts Subscribers
- Vendors Proactively Promoting LTE
- China' s Concern With IPR
- Challenges
- Spectrum Allocation
- Government Attitudes to TD-SCDMA Performance and Operator Market Share
- Huge Investment in 3G
- LTE Industrial Chain
- Operator LTE Strategy
- China Mobile
- Current Status
- LTE Strategy
- China Unicom
- Current Status
- LTE Strategy
- China Telecom
- Current Status
- LTE Strategy
- Market Forecasts for LTE in China
- Vendor Profiles
- Alcatel-Lucent
- Ericsson
- Huawei
- Nokia Siemens Networks
- Qualcomm
- ZTE
- Methodology
- Glossary
- Related In-Stat Reports
List of Tables
- Table 1. China' s Radio Technology Adoptions After 3G Launch
- Table 2. Detailed Spectrum Allocation for 2G in China
List of Figures
- Figure 1. China' s LTE Subscriber Forecast, 2009 - 2013 (Subscribers in
Thousands)
- Figure 2. Subscribers Connected by Air Link as of End of 2008
- Figure 3. China' s Subscriber Distribution by Air Link
- Figure 4. China' s Mobile 2G and 3G Subscriber Forecasts, 2009 - 2013
(Subscribers in Millions)
- Figure 5. Relationship Between LTE FDD/TDD and TD-LTE
- Figure 6. Architecture Evolution from 3G to LTE/SAE
- Figure 7. Possible Routes to LTE
- Figure 8. Spectrum Allocated to IMT and/or Mobile Use in WRC07
- Figure 9. Spectrum Allocation for 3G in China
- Figure 10. Possible Spectrum Allocation for LTE in China
- Figure 11. Mobile Internet Users in China (in Millions)
- Figure 12. Broadband Technology Uplink/Downlink Speed Comparison
- Figure 13. China' s Mobile GSM Subscriber Growth (Subscribers in Millions)
- Figure 14. China Mobile' s Revenue Growth by Service
- Figure 15. China Mobile' s TD-LTE Work Plan
- Figure 16. China Unicom Subscriber Growth (Subscribers in Millions)
- Figure 17. China Unicom Revenue Growth
- Figure 18. China Telecom Subscriber Growth (Subscribers in Millions)
- Figure 19. China' s LTE Subscriber Forecast, 2009 - 2013 (Subscribers in
Thousands)
- Figure 20. Ericsson' s Evolved Packet Core for Multi-Access
- Figure 21. Roadmap of Ericsson' s Unified HW and SW Solution for LTE
- Figure 22. Nokia Siemens Networks Proposed Roadmap for Radio Evolution to
LTE
- Figure 23. Nokia Siemens Flexi BTS Modules for GSM/EDGE, WCDMA/HSPA, and
LTE
- Figure 24. ZTE' s SDR Base Station Platform
- Figure 25. Evolution of ZTE' s SDR to LTE
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