Abstract
Report Summary
The global erosion of asset prices, reduction in credit availability, and
declining personal and business income will be reflected in a 19.6% drop in
semiconductor revenue in 2009. Declining confidence levels, resulting from
recent shocks and increased uncertainty about the future, will lead to more
conservative spending practices even after liquidity improves and the economic
recovery is well underway. Assuming that governments and central banks around
the world continue the aggressive fiscal and monetary actions that they began
to take in 2008, and that these actions are largely successful, growth in 2010
is forecasted to be modest, at 11.8%, followed by 9.7% in 2011 and 8.8% in
2012.
This report analyzes the overall economy and resulting underlying demand for
semiconductors and how the demand matches with projections for semiconductor
capacity, as well as other underlying factors that will affect semiconductor
demand and pricing.
All historical and forecasted data in this report are consistent with the data
in the companion report IN0904560SSF Global Semiconductor End-Use Forecast -
Is Anyone Buying?
What' s in the Report?
- In-depth discussion of economic impacts on the semi industry, by region,
as well as worldwide and regional GDP forecasts
- Semiconductor revenue forecasts by major end-use segment
- Wafer fab capacity and utilization
- Semiconductor capital expenditure and revenue forecast
- Worldwide semiconductor unit, ASP, and revenue forecasts
- Semiconductor revenue forecasts by region and WSTS product categories
Key Findings from the Report:
- Semiconductor revenue is projected to decline by 19.6% in 2009 to US$199.2
billion
- Recovery will begin slowly in 2H09
- It will be 2012 before semiconductor revenue again reaches the level of
2007
Whose Needs Does This Report Address?
- Semiconductor companies - fabless companies, manufacturers, and foundries
- Companies that serve the semiconductor companies listed above: semi
equipment companies, distributors, and material providers
- Any company that is impacted by the outlook for the building blocks of
everything that is electronic
- The financial community
What Questions Does This Report Answer?
- How will global and regional economic conditions specifically impact the
semiconductor industry?
- Under what conditions might this industry begin to turn around? When might
that be?
- What is the outlook for capacity, supply and demand?
- How is this downturn different from others?
- How is the economy affecting capital spending now, and in the future?
HIGHLIGHTS
- This is NOT your typical downturn.
- Semiconductor revenue is forecasted to decline by 19.6% in 2009 to $199.2
billion.
- A slow recovery is expected to begin in the second half of 2009;
however......
- It will be 2012 before semi-conductor revenue exceeds its 2007 level.
Methodology
The fundamental semiconductor market driver is demand for products that use
them. So, ideally, a semiconductor forecast would be the sum of the forecasts
for each of those end products, based on their bills of material, but the wide
range of products that use semiconductors make this approach unfeasible. So we
utilize the next best method and rely on forecasts for major products in each
of the end-product segments covered by In-Stat' s end-use focused services.
These key products serve as proxies for the broader markets.
These end-product forecasts are supplemented with information about overall
economic conditions, inventory levels, semiconductor industry capacity, and
investment expectations and are, ultimately, reconciled with the forecasts for
specific semiconductor product types, taking into consideration conditions
unique to specific markets to develop price forecasts and regional breakouts.
We continue to conform to the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) and
World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) categories and definitions. All
historical data in this report ties to WSTS reported data and all forecasts
are based on current WSTS category definitions. However, WSTS does
occasionally change definitions to keep its categories relevant to the
changing market. Significant changes that affect the data in this report are
as follows:
- In 2005, digital bipolar ceased to be a separate top-level category and
was moved into the MOS logic category (which was then renamed simply logic),
where it accounts for well under 1% of the total. Consistent with this change,
for 2005 and later years, we have set units and revenue in the digital bipolar
category to zero. However, consistent with our practice of not rewriting
history, we continue to treat digital bipolar as a separate product category
for 2004 and earlier years.
- Other changes in reporting categories (such as combining the programmable
logic and standard cell categories in 2005) have been relatively minor and
their effects at the level of detail of this report can generally be ignored.
Note that all data tables are generated from data with additional digits of
precision and are subject to rounding and truncating errors in the final
digit. Therefore, some “total,” “% change,” and
“% of total” figures may differ slightly from those that would
result from a direct calculation using the rounded and/or truncated numbers
contained in those tables.
Throughout the report, data associated with a year marked by an asterisk (*)
is forecasted data.
Table of Contents
- Executive Summary
- Introduction
- The Story So Far
- Environment and Assumptions
- The Economy
- The Semiconductor Industry and the Economy
- Regional Economies
- US and the Americas
- Europe
- Japan
- Asia/Pacific
- Worldwide Economy
- The Semiconductor Market
- Some Specific Semiconductor Markets
- Supply
- Capacity
- Wafer Fab Capacity and Utilization
- Capital Spending
- Worldwide Semiconductor Forecast
- Products
- Integrated Circuits and Discretes
- Discrete, Optoelectronic, and Sensor
- Integrated Circuit Products
- Digital Bipolar
- Analog
- MOS Micro
- Logic
- MOS Memory
- Regional
- Methodology
- Related In-Stat Reports
List of Tables
- Table 1. Worldwide Semiconductor Revenue, 2004 - 2013 (US$ in Billions),
Unit Shipments (in Billions), and ASP (US$)
- Table 2. Annual Changes in GDP, by Major Region, 2004 - 2013
- Table 3. Worldwide GDP Annual Growth, 2004 - 2013
- Table 4. Semiconductor Revenue by Major End-Use Market, 1996 - 2007 (US$
in Billions)
- Table 5. MOS IC Wafer Fab Statistics (Capacity and Starts in Thousands of
8-Inch Equivalent Wafers per Week), Past Three Years
- Table 6. Semiconductor Industry Equipment Capital Expenditures, and Total
Revenue, 2003 - 2012 (US$ in Billions)
- Table 7. Worldwide Semiconductor Revenue, 2004 - 2013 (US$ in Billions),
Unit Shipments (in Billions), and ASP (US$)
- Table 8. Semiconductor Revenue by Product, 2004 - 2013 (US$ in Billions)
- Table 9. Worldwide Revenue - Discrete, Optoelectronic, and Sensor and
Integrated Circuit, 2004 - 2013 (US$ in Billions)
- Table 10. Worldwide Unit Shipments - Discrete, Optoelectronic, and Sensor
and Integrated Circuit, 2004 - 2013 (Units in Billions)
- Table 11. Worldwide ASP - Discrete, Optoelectronic, and Sensor and
Integrated Circuit, 2004 - 2013 (US$)
- Table 12. Worldwide Discrete, Optoelectronic, and Sensor Revenue, 2004 -
2013 (US$ in Billions), Unit Shipments (in Billions), and Aggregate ASP (US$)
- Table 13. Discrete, Optoelectronic, and Sensor Revenue, by Region, 2004 -
2013 (US$ in Billions)
- Table 14. Discrete, Optoelectronic, and Sensor Revenue Trending, by
Sub-Product, 1998 - 2008 (US$ in Billions)
- Table 15. Worldwide Integrated Circuit Revenue, 2004 - 2013 (US$ in
Billions), Unit Shipments (in Billions), and Aggregate ASP (US$)
- Table 16. Integrated Circuit Revenue, by Region, 2004 - 2013 (US$ in
Billions)
- Table 17. Worldwide Integrated Circuit Revenue, by Product Type, 2004 -
2013 (US$ in Billions)
- Table 18. Worldwide Integrated Circuit Unit Shipments, by Product Type,
2004 - 2013 (in Billions)
- Table 19. Worldwide Integrated Circuit ASP, by Product Type, 2004 - 2013
(US$)
- Table 20. Worldwide Digital Bipolar Revenue, 2004 - 2013 (US$ in
Billions), Unit Shipments (in Billions), and Aggregate ASP (US$)
- Table 21. Digital Bipolar Revenue, by Region, 2004 - 2013 (US$ in Billions)
- Table 22. Digital Bipolar Revenue Trending, by Sub-Product, 1997 - 2004
(US$ in Billions)
- Table 23. Worldwide Analog Revenue, 2004 - 2013 (US$ in Billions), Unit
Shipments (in Billions), and Aggregate ASP (US$)
- Table 24. Analog Revenue, by Region, 2004 - 2013 (US$ in Billions)
- Table 25. Analog Revenue Trending, by Sub-Product, 1998 - 2008 (US$ in
Billions)
- Table 26. Worldwide MOS Micro Revenue, 2004 - 2013 (US$ in Billions), Unit
Shipments (in Billions), and Aggregate ASP (US$)
- Table 27. MOS Micro Revenue, by Region, 2004 - 2013 (US$ in Billions)
- Table 28. MOS Micro Revenue Trending, by Sub-Product, 1998 - 2013 (US$ in
Billions)
- Table 29. Worldwide Logic Revenue, 2004 - 2013 (US$ in Billions), Unit
Shipments (in Billions), and Aggregate ASP (US$)
- Table 30. Logic Revenue, by Region, 2004 - 2013 (US$ in Billions)
- Table 31. Logic Revenue Trending, by Sub-Product, 1998 - 2008 (US$ in
Billions)
- Table 32. Worldwide MOS Memory Revenue, 2004 - 2013 (US$ in Billions),
Unit Shipments (in Billions), and Aggregate ASP (US$)
- Table 33. MOS Memory Revenue, by Region, 2004 - 2013 (US$ in Billions)
- Table 34. MOS Memory Revenue Trending, by Sub-Product, 1998 - 2008 (US$ in
Billions)
- Table 35. Semiconductor Revenue, by Region, 2004 - 2013 (US$ in Billions)
List of Figures
- Figure 1. Worldwide Semiconductor Revenue, 2004 - 2013 (US$ in Billions),
Unit Shipments (in Billions), and ASP (US$)
- Figure 2. Annual Percent Changes in Worldwide Semiconductor Revenues, Unit
Shipments, Equipment CapEx, and Worldwide Real GDP, 1986 - 2007
- Figure 3. Annual Percent Changes in Worldwide Semiconductor Revenues and
Worldwide Real GDP, 1978 - 2007
- Figure 4. Distribution of World GDP, by Major Region (2007)
- Figure 5. Distribution of Worldwide Semiconductor Revenue, by Major Region
(2007)
- Figure 6. Annual Changes in GDP, by Major Region, 1993 - 2013
- Figure 7. Worldwide GDP Annual Growth, 1980 - 2013
- Figure 8. Semiconductor Revenue Share by Major End-Use Market, 1996 - 2007
- Figure 9. Trending of Silicon Wafer Shipments, IC Wafer Starts, and IC
Unit Shipments
- Figure 10. MOS IC Wafer Fab Utilization (%)
- Figure 11. IC Wafer Fab Utilization (%), and IC ASP (US$)
- Figure 12. MOS IC Wafer Fabs Capacity and Wafer Starts
- Figure 13. MOS IC Wafer Capacity by Process Geometry
- Figure 14. Semiconductor Industry Capital Equipment Expenditures and
Revenue, 2003 - 2012 (US$ in Billions)
- Figure 15. Semiconductor Equipment Book-to-Bill Ratio (North America)
- Figure 16. North America Semiconductor Equipment Capital Spending (US$ in
Millions)
- Figure 17. Worldwide Semiconductor Revenue, 2004 - 2013 (US$ in Billions),
Unit Shipments (in Billions), and ASP (US$)
- Figure 18. Semiconductor Revenue, by Product, 2004 - 2013 (US$ in Billions)
- Figure 19. Semiconductor Revenue Share, by Product, 2004 - 2013
- Figure 20. Worldwide Revenues - Discrete, Optoelectronic, and Sensor and
Integrated Circuit, 2004 - 2013 (US$ in Billions)
- Figure 21. Worldwide Unit Shipments - Discrete, Optoelectronic, and Sensor
and Integrated Circuit, 2004 - 2013 (Units in Billions)
- Figure 22. Worldwide ASP - Discrete, Optoelectronic, and Sensor and
Integrated Circuit, 2004 - 2013 (US$)
- Figure 23. Worldwide Discrete, Optoelectronic, and Sensor Revenue, 2004 -
2013 (US$ in Billions), Unit Shipments (in Billions), and Aggregate ASP (US$)
- Figure 24. Discrete, Optoelectronic, and Sensor Revenue, by Region, 2004 -
2013 (US$ in Billions)
- Figure 25. Discrete, Optoelectronic, and Sensor Revenue Trending, by
Sub-Product, 1998 - 2008
- Figure 26. Worldwide Integrated Circuit Revenue, 2004 - 2013 (US$ in
Billions), Unit Shipments (in Billions), and Aggregate ASP (US$)
- Figure 27. Integrated Circuit Revenue, by Region, 2004 - 2013 (US$ in
Billions)
- Figure 28. Worldwide Integrated Circuit Revenue, by Product Type, 2004 -
2013 (US$ in Billions)
- Figure 29. Worldwide Integrated Circuit Unit Shipments, by Product Type,
2004 - 2013 (in Billions)
- Figure 30. Worldwide Integrated Circuit ASP, by Product Type, 2004 - 2013
(US$)
- Figure 31. Worldwide Digital Bipolar Revenue, 2004 - 2013 (US$ in
Billions), Unit Shipments (in Billions), and Aggregate ASP (US$)
- Figure 32. Digital Bipolar Revenue, by Region, 2004 - 2013 (US$ in
Billions)
- Figure 33. Digital Bipolar Revenue Trending, by Sub-Product, 1997 - 2004
- Figure 34. Worldwide Analog Revenue, 2004 - 2013 (US$ in Billions), Unit
Shipments (in Billions), and Aggregate ASP (US$)
- Figure 35. Analog Revenue, by Region, 2004 - 2013 (US$ in Billions)
- Figure 36. Analog Revenue Trending, by Sub-Product, 1998 - 2008
- Figure 37. Worldwide MOS Micro Revenue, 2004 - 2013 (US$ in Billions),
Unit Shipments (in Billions), and Aggregate ASP (US$)
- Figure 38. MOS Micro Revenue, by Region, 2004 - 2013 (US$ in Billions)
- Figure 39. MOS Micro Revenue Trending, by Sub-Product, 1998 - 2008
- Figure 40. Worldwide Logic Revenue, 2004 - 2013 (US$ in Billions), Unit
Shipments (in Billions), and Aggregate ASP (US$)
- Figure 41. Logic Revenue, by Region, 2004 - 2013 (US$ in Billions)
- Figure 42. Logic Revenue Trending, by Sub-Product, 1998 - 2008
- Figure 43. Worldwide MOS Memory Revenue, 2004 - 2013 (US$ in Billions),
Unit Shipments (in Billions), and Aggregate ASP (US$)
- Figure 44. MOS Memory Revenue by Region, 2004 - 2013 (US$ in Billions)
- Figure 45. MOS Memory Revenue Trending, by Sub-Product, 1998 - 2008
- Figure 46. Semiconductor Revenue, by Region, 2004 - 2013 (US$ in Billions)
- Figure 47. Semiconductor Revenue, by Region, 2004 - 2013 (%)
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