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市場調查報告書

乾旱對中國玉米栽培的影響

Influence of Drought on Corn Yield in China

出版商 CCM 商品編碼 308237
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 41 Pages
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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乾旱對中國玉米栽培的影響 Influence of Drought on Corn Yield in China
出版日期: 2014年06月25日 內容資訊: 英文 41 Pages
簡介

玉米是中國三種主要穀物之一、這60年收穫量急速增加。今後預計也會因為飼料、工業原料需要增大與高收益率、政府政策支援而讓栽種面積擴大。隨著氣候變化而產生的自然災害、特別是乾旱對玉米收穫量有很大的影響。地球暖化破壞了中國國內環境、乾旱發生頻率今後預計會更高。乾旱發生地區、時期、期間每年都相當不同、但因為玉米栽種地區也無規劃的持續擴大、造成兩者重疊使得乾旱對玉米栽種的災害更加嚴重。

本報告針對中國國內乾旱對玉米收穫量的影響進行分析、提供玉米栽種面積、收穫量、近年氣候變化、乾旱狀況、乾旱造成的玉米收穫量災害(地區分類、年度分類)、政府、農民的反應、今後預測。

第1章 摘要整理

第2章 中國國內玉米栽培狀況

  • 玉米栽培發展歷史(1949∼2012年)
  • 玉米產地分佈狀況

第3章 乾旱地區分佈狀況

第4章 乾旱對玉米收穫量影響

第5章 地方政府、農民對乾旱的反應

第6章 氣候變動造成玉米栽培的變化與未來預測

圖表一覽

目錄

Corn, first planted from the sixteenth century in China and now one of the three major grain crops in China, has witnessed fast growth in the past six decades. China's corn planting area is projected to continue expanding in the coming years, mainly driven by the robust demand from feed and industrial sectors, relatively high planting profit and strong policy support.

Climate change is one of the major factors influencing China's corn planting. Among all the natural disasters that affect corn planting, the impact of drought is considered the most significant. Under the global warming and depravation of China's ecological environment, drought occurrence in China is estimated to be on an uptrend in the future.

In China, drought usually occurs unevenly in different regions, seasons and years, while corn's planting area is sprawling irregularly during the past years. Accordingly, the overlapping or staggering of drought occurrence with corn planting by geographic distribution and seasonal distribution aggravates the impact of drought on corn yield.

In order to figure out the impact of drought on corn yield and forecast the corn planting in China, CCM carries out this research, namely Influence of Drought on Corn Yield in China, through the following aspects:

  • Corn planting history in China from 1949 to 2012, including: changes of corn planting, planting area, unit yield, output and summarization of each decade;
  • Geographic distribution of corn planting from 1978 to 2011, such as: the division of corn planting area, the top planting areas and their share changes;
  • Geographic distribution of drought area in China
  • The influence of drought on corn yield, reflected in: comparison of geographic and seasonal distribution of drought with that of corn planting, correlation analysis between these two factors in China and in the top eight corn planting regions;
  • Local governments and farmers' reaction to drought
  • Change and forecast of corn planting under the climate change

Executive summary:

China, the second largest corn production country in the world, has witnessed great changes in its corn planting in the past six decades since 1949. The fastest growth of corn planting in China took place in the XXX, XXX, and XXX~now, with policy and demand as the two most important drivers. In these three periods, both planting area and unit yield of corn increased significantly.

Corn planting has become increasingly concentrated geographically in China. Among China's six corn planting areas, XXX and XXX, with favorable climate conditions like temperature and rainfall quite suitable for corn growth, are major corn production regions, taking up about XXX% of China's total corn planting area and more than XXX% of the national output.

Although these two regions have the largest drought affected areas in China (based on annual drought affected area averaged for years 1990~2011), the seasonal distribution of drought is XXX for corn growth, as it usually occurs in seasons when XXX. At the same time, rainfall in these regions is usually seasonally concentrated in periods XXXX.

However, though the seasonal and geographic distribution of drought in China is favorable for corn growth in the major corn planting areas, CCM's correlation analysis of drought impact on corn yield finds that drought has an XXXXXXX on corn yield in China on the whole. However, the significance of impact varies from region to region.

Although XXX, XXX, XXX and XXX ranked the top four drought affected areas in China, the correlation between drought and corn yield in these four regions is not that high compared with the rest major regions and China's overall level. Reasons for each region are different.

Besides, compared with other types of natural disasters, drought has the strongest correction with corn yield, that is to say, among all disasters, drought causes the largest damage to corn yield. That's because China's major corn planting areas are also areas with the largest drought affected areas, and drought is the major natural disaster threatening their corn planting.

In China, the central and local governments play a key role in combating against drought; while farmers' efforts vary according to the size of their farms. Usually farms with large and middle farms are more willing to take actions to counteract droughts, while small farmers aren't so enthusiastic in doing this.

Among the major factors influencing corn planting in China, climate change's impact is not so significant, but it does have some impact on China's corn planting. When only the climate change is taken into consideration, and if the drought affected areas in the coming years is below the average level of the past decade China's corn planting is expected to witness positive growth; while if it is well above that average level, negative growth is highly likely and drought resistant corn varieties will be more widely promoted in China.

XXX Commercial in Confidence.

Table of Contents

1. Executive summary

2. Corn planting in China

  • 2-1. Development of corn planting, 1949-2012
  • 2-2. Geographic distribution of corn planting

3. Geographic distribution of drought area

4. Influence of drought on corn yield

5. Reaction of local governments and farmers towards drought

6. Change and forecast of corn planting under climate change

List of Tables:

  • Table 2.2-1: Six different corn planting areas in China
  • Table 2.2-2: Planting area, yield and output of corn in major regions of China, 2012
  • Table 2.2-3: Share changes of top eight corn planting regions in China by planting area, 1949, 1978, 2007 and 2012
  • Table 4-1: Seasonal distribution of drought in China's major corn planting areas
  • Table 4-2: Correlation between drought and corn unit yield in China, 1990-2011
  • Table 5-1: Irrigated areas of China's main corn planting provinces, 2011, '000 ha

List of Figures:

  • Figure 2.1-1: World corn output share by region, 2012
  • Figure 2.1-2: Changes of corn planting area, unit yield and output in China, 1949-2012
  • Figure 2.1-3: Planting area and output changes of major grain crops in China, 1949-2012
  • Figure 2.1-4: China's corn planting area change over the past six decades
  • Figure 2.1-5: China's corn output change over the past six decades
  • Figure 2.1-6: China's corn unit yield change over the past six decades
  • Figure 2.2-1: China corn planting area segmentation
  • Figure 2.2-2: Geographic distribution of corn planting in China, 2011
  • Figure 2.2-3: Geographic distribution of soybean planting in China, 2011
  • Figure 2.2-4: Distribution of corn and soybean planting area by share in China, 2011
  • Figure 2.2-5: Planting area changes of corn and soybean in China, 1949-2011
  • Figure 2.2-6: Corn planting area change in major provinces of China, 1949-2011
  • Figure 2.2-7: Soybean planting area change in major provinces of China, 1949-2011
  • Figure 2.2-8: Share of corn planting areas in total planting areas of corn and soybean in China, 2008-2011
  • Figure 3-1: Geographic distribution of annual precipitation in China
  • Figure 3-2: Distribution of humid and acid areas in China
  • Figure 3-3: Affected area by natural disasters in China, 1990-2011, '000 ha
  • Figure 3-4: Seasonal and geographic distribution of drought in China
  • Figure 3-5: Geographic distribution of drought in China by average affected area
  • Figure 4-1: Drought affected area in China's major corn planting provinces
  • Figure 4-2: Growth periods of Spring corn and Summer corn in China
  • Figure 4-3: Changes of drought affected areas, corn yield and output in China, 1990-2011
  • Figure 4-4: Changes of drought affected areas, corn yield and output in Heilongjiang, 1990-2011
  • Figure 4-5: Changes of drought affected areas, corn yield and output in Jilin, 1990-2011
  • Figure 4-6: Changes of drought affected areas, corn yield and output in Henan, 1990-2011
  • Figure 4-7: Changes of drought affected areas, corn yield and output in Hebei, 1990-2011
  • Figure 4-8: Changes of drought affected areas, corn yield and output in Shandong, 1990-2011
  • Figure 4-9: Changes of drought affected areas, corn yield and output in Inner Mongolia, 1990-2011
  • Figure 4-10: Changes of drought affected areas, corn yield and output in Liaoning, 1990-2011
  • Figure 4-11: Changes of drought affected areas, corn yield and output in Shanxi, 1990-2011
  • Figure 4-12: Changes of drought affected areas, corn yield and output in Yunnan, 1990-2011
  • Figure 4-13: Changes of drought affected areas, corn yield and output in Sichuan, 1990-2011
  • Figure 5-1: Irrigated area changes in China, 1990-2011
  • Figure 6-1: Drought areas of China's eight major corn planting areas, 1990~2011, '000 ha
  • Figure 6-2: Drought areas of China's four major corn planting areas in northeastern China, 1990~2011, '000 ha
  • Figure 6-3: Drought areas of China's four major corn planting provinces in North China, 1990~2011, '000 ha
  • Figure 6-4: Flood areas of China's eight major corn planting provinces, 1990~2011, '000 ha
  • Figure 6-5: Flood areas of China's four major corn planting areas in northeastern China, 1990~2011, '000 ha
  • Figure 6-6: Flood areas of China's four major corn planting provinces in North China, 1990~2011, '000 ha
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