印度的輪胎產業 是由出版商CARE Ratings在2011年12月所出版的。
這份英文市場調查報告書價格從美金2500起跳。
印度的輪胎產業趁著景氣的復甦和僱用水準的上升，利率的緩和，汽車的需求復甦，在2010∼2011年度大幅度恢復。
本報告提供印度的輪胎產業調查分析，卡車/公車(T&B)，小客車，二輪車，三輪車，拖拉機，輕型商用車(LCV)等資料，提供所有類型的輪胎需求相關預測，為您概述為以下內容。
摘要整理
第1章 產業的展望
- 國內市場預測
- 國內市場年複合成長率11∼12％(∼2016年度)
- OEM需求的年複合成長率10∼11％
- T&B用和小客車用輪胎提振OEM需求
- 替換用輪胎的需求CAGR預計為12％
- T&B用輪胎比替換用輪胎整體需求低的成長率
- 進口量短期性劇增,不過，從中長期來看只達到中程度
- 國內需求大幅增長，出口量沒有擴大
- 盈利相關預測
- 主要製造商穩定成長
- EBITDA獲利率2012年度雖然較低，不過2013年度慢慢復甦
- 今後2∼3年約700∼800億盧比的投資額預測
- 收購價格低，困難的市場條件下，保留一定的利潤額
- 利息覆蓋率雖然減少，但現金淨額增加
第2章 產業的基本資料
- 產業的發展情形
- 初期(1920∼1935年)
- 發展期(1935∼1960年)
- 法規強化期(1961∼1991年)
- 現代化期(1991年以後)
- 輪胎的基本資料
- 產業區分
- 主要企業競爭情形
- 需求
- 供給
- 汽車需求穩定的復甦，困難的市場條件下，2011年維持產業供應
- 藉由進口限制，確保和輪胎製造商更好的議價能力
- 國內市場供應有限，這5∼6年輪胎進口增加
- 成本分析
- 原料成本
- 人事費用
- 能源成本
- 銷售/流通成本
- 銷售額營業利潤率(OPM)
- 信用情形
- 2011年度的資本報酬率(ROCE)現象嚴重
- 負債資本比率微增
- 營運成本管理
- 國內企業簡介
- Apollo Tyres Ltd.
- CEAT Ltd.
- JK Tyres Ltd.
- MRF Ltd.
第3章 附錄
圖表
Abstract
SYNOPSIS
Slowing down growth levels in automobile sales will strain OEM demand to
some extent; replacement demand to provide cushion for tyre industry
Domestic tyre industry has witnessed a remarkable recovery in FY10 and FY11,
after a slowdown in FY09. This growth was driven by strong revival in
automobile demand on the back of resurgence in economy, rise in employment
levels, and easing of interest rate scenario. The concerns about slowdown in
the growth levels in new automobile sales would dampen the demand from OEMs in
the short term.
However, strong growth in automobile sales in last 7-8 years barring the
slowdown of FY09, have resulted in significant expansion of vehicle population
that would transform in healthy replacement demand for tyres in medium to long
term period.
The tyre industry is on a brink of a major structural change. T&B which is a
dominant segment in terms of tonnage is witnessing a gradual rise in the
proportion of radial tyres. Going by the global trend it seems that the radial
tyre demand in India is at inflection point and with almost 98 per cent of the
passenger car tyre production has been radialised, T&B tyre category is the
next major category to witness spurt in the demand for radial tyres. And with
improvement in road infrastructure and better cost economics the proportion of
radial tyres in T&B category is expected to expand by around seven times from
the current levels. Sighting this opportunity, almost all the expansion plans
for T&B category tyres are for radial category tyres.
In FY11, almost all the manufacturers reported healthy rise in their top-line,
driven by growth in both volumes and realisation. However, sharp rise in input
cost due to increase in global demand combined with adverse climate conditions
in major rubber producing countries like Indonesia and Thailand coupled with
spiraling interest cost pulled down industry's bottom line considerably in
FY11. Going forward it is expected that, softening in input prices owing to
cooling down global demand combined with stability in interest rates scenario
will benefit tyre manufacturer's bottom line.
CARE Research has developed detailed model for forecasting OEMs as well as
replacement demand for all the tyre categories like Truck and Bus (T&B),
passenger vehicles, two-wheelers, three-wheelers, tractors and light
commercial vehicles (LCV). Strong understanding of automobile as well as tyre
sector is percolated down to the auto component sector and thus the demand for
tyres is forecasted as well on the basis of projected automobile sales and
population.
Table of Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Domestic market to grow at a CAGR of 11 - 12 per cent till FY16
- Healthy replacement market to support industry growth
- Radial tyres penetration to increase sharply in T&B segment
- Exports initiatives to increase from all key players, however domestic
market to remain the primary
- preference
- Investment of around Rs. 7,000- 8,000 crore expected in next 2-3 years
- EBITDA margins to remain under strain in FY12; but gradually recover in
FY13
SECTION I: INDUSTRY OUTLOOK
OUTLOOK ON DOMESTIC MARKET
- Domestic market to grow at a CAGR of 11-12 per cent till FY16
- OEM demand to grow at a CAGR of 10-11 per cent
- T&B and passenger car segment tyre to drive OEM demand
- Replacement demand is expected to grow at a CAGR of 12 per cent
- Dominant T&B category to witness lower growth than the overall replacement
demand
- MAV operator can save around Rs.1.3 per km by switching over to radial
tyres
- Radial tyres penetration
- Aggressive expansion lined up in T&B radial tyre category
- Imports are expected to rise sharply in near term; but moderate in medium
to long term
- Exports to take backseat due to strong growth in domestic demand
OUTLOOK ON PROFITABILITY
- Top-line to remain healthy
- EBITDA margins to remain under strain in FY12; but gradually recover in
FY13
- Investment of around Rs. 7,000- 8,000 crore expected in next 2-3 years
- Softening in input prices would lead to ease margins pressure to some
extent under tough market
- condition
- Net cash accruals to improve, while the interest coverage ratio to drop
SECTION II: INDUSTRY BASICS
EVOLUTION OF THE INDUSTRY
- Inception phase (1920 - 1935)
- Developmental phase (1935 - 1960)
- Restriction phase (1961 - 1991)
- Modernisation phase (1991 onwards)
TYRE BASICS
- Structure of the tyre
- Tread
- Casing ply
- Sidewalls
- Bead
- Performance parameters of tyres
- Tyre inflation
- Rolling resistance
- Tyre noise
- Tyre technology
INDUSTRY SEGMENTS
- Vehicle Categories
- Commercial usage
- Personal usage
- Markets
- Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs)
- Replacement Demand
- Exports
- Design
- Cross-ply tyres
- Radial Tyres
PLAYERS AND COMPETITION
- Tyre manufacturers have their respective areas of strength
- HHI indicated diversity in player concentration ratio between segments and
industry
- Apollo continued to dominate T&B category
- Apollo continued to maintain its market dominance in passenger cars and
jeeps segment
- MRF continued to hold leadership position in LCV category
- MRF continues to dominate two and three wheeler segment
- Goodyear maintained dominance in tractor tyre segment
- JK piped MRF to lead OTR tyre segment in FY11
DEMAND
- Tyre demand registered strong growth in FY11
- Buoyancy in freight movement led the growth in sales of T&B category
- Passenger cars & jeep category sales were led by favourable financing
options
- Two-wheeler tyre category too benefited from strong demand scenario
- Tractor category witnessed sharp jump after decline in FY08 and FY09
- Export market gaining importance
SUPPLY
- Buoyant demand from automobile kept industry supplies under pressure in
FY11
- Restriction on imports ensured better bargaining power with tyre
manufacturers
- Supply constraints from domestic market fuelled tyre imports in last 5-6
years
- Restriction on imports of TBR tyres curtailed the import value growth
substantially in last fiscal
- Curb on TBR imports have pulled down the import realisation levels of
Chinese tyres considerably
- Recent relaxation on anti-dumping duties to intensify competition level
in the industry
COST ANALYSIS
- Raw material cost
- Employee Cost
- Energy Cost
- Selling and Distribution (S&D) Cost
- Operating margins
CREDIT PROFILE
- Return on capital employed strained profitability pressure in FY11
- Debt-Equity ratio observes a marginal rise
- Working capital management
DOMESTIC PLAYER PROFILES
- Apollo Tyres Ltd.
- CEAT Ltd.
- JK Tyres Ltd.
- MRF Ltd.
SECTION III: ANNEXURES
- Category wise Tyre Production - FY05-FY11
- Category wise Replacement Market offtakes - FY05-FY11
- Category wise Exports - FY05-FY11
- Category wise OEM offtakes - FY05-FY11
- Category Wise Passenger Vehicle Production
- Category Wise MHCV and LCV Production
- Category Wise Two Wheelers and Three wheelers Production
- Category Wise Tractor Production
