印度的商用車業界：2011年9月 是由出版商CARE Research在2011年09月所出版的。
這份英文市場調查報告書價格從美金2500起跳。
度過了全球性經濟危機的印度商用車市場業績持續急速回復、2010年為36％、2011年也將有32％成長率。這個市場中有莫大佔有率的是貨物車輛、全體90％是國内，用剩下的10％是輸出用。現在印度的物流業界中持續導入中樞＆幅條模式、這將為商用車業界帶來巨大變化。中樞＆幅條模式是經由各地設置的卡車配送中心與物流據點將貨物送到最終的配送地，這是促進LCV(Light Commercial Vehicle)市場中的車輛小型化與HCV(Heavy Commercial Vehicle)市場中車輛大型化的重大要因。現在對印度商用車業界來說最大的隱憂是利息與燃料價格上昇、工業生產的減速。
本報告書為印度的商用車市場介紹、基於詳細的統計模式所建立的貨物車輛與乘用車的今後販售台數等預測、印度商用車業界的歷史與構造、各市場的競爭狀況、國内市場的主要趨勢、法規、輸出市場、成本分析等、國内製造商各社的簡介，概述如下。
總綱
PART I：業界展望
- 國内市場的展望
- 貨物車輛需求擴大的原動力是LCV
- LCV市場中佔有多數比例的是積載量1噸以下的車輛
- 熱烈景氣與基礎設施整被整備的進展是MCV(Medium Commercial Vehicle)以及HCV貨物車輛的成長動力
- 中樞＆幅條模式普及下變貌的商用車業界力學
- 運送事業收益率低下中，商用車業界成長率也鈍化
- 柴油燃料價格上昇中貨物運賃也上昇
- 利息上昇成為強烈的風險要因
- 對商用車業界的減速隱憂可能影響商用車購入資金的調達
- 對公共交通基礎設施的改善的政府構想喚起乘用車輛需求
- MCV以及HCV乘用車輛領導了市場
- 世界經濟的復調中，商用車輸出擴大
- 未來2∼3年度的投資額將達1,800億盧比
- 關於收益性的展望
- 大企業維持好氣勢
- 販售流通成本上昇下投入原價軟化造成正面效果被抵銷
- 負債自體資本比率上昇的另一方面，預期現金額的成長鈍化
PART II：業界基本數據
- 業界的發展與現在構造
- 法規階段（1985年前）
- 發展階段（1985∼1990年）
- 自由化階段（1992∼2001年）
- 近代化階段（2002年以降）
- 業界劃分與競争
- 貨物車輛部門是成長的原動力
- 大幅拉抬LCV貨物車輛的佔有率的SCV(Small Commercial Vehicle)の堅調な需求
- M&M的加入讓SCV市場競争激化
- HCV與ICV(Intermediate Commercial Vehicle)侵蝕了MCV市場
- 過去10年度持續順利成長的ICV需求
- 最近5∼6年度佔有率慢慢下降的MCV
- 中樞＆幅條模式的普及讓HCV需求擴大
- 對公共交通基礎佔有率需求的高漲是乘用車輛市場擴大的原動力
- 旅行業界需求擴大下LCV乘用車輛的需求急增
- 促進MCV以及HCV乘用車輛需求的公共交通機關
- 各自的市場寡占度不同
- 國内市場
- 支持旺盛需求的印度國内貨物車輛販售在2011年也穩定成長
- 現在商用車業界主流也是貨物車輛
- 牽引成長的LCV貨物車輛
- MCV以及HCV的以貨物車輛為中心的成長過程
- 對於公共交通輸送的改善作為強化中，乘用車輛的需求擴大
- 促進需求擴大的要因
- 法規
- 關於汽車的法律
- 排氣法規
- 許可
- 2007年物品輸送法
- 關稅
- 物品稅
- 車齡基準
- 外國企業直接投資
- 付加價値稅／消費稅
- 輸出
- 2011年的商用車輸出台數的驚異成長
- 商用車輸出市場的中心是貨物車輛
- 2011年中乘用車輛輸出也急增
- 斯里蘭卡是商用車輛的重要輸出目的地
- 成本分析
- 原料成本
- 鋼鐵
- 橡膠
- 專利使用費與研究開發費
- 販售流通成本
- 人事費
- 信用狀況
- 銷售量明細営業利益率
- 純利益
- 使用資本利益率(ROCE)
- 負債資本比率
- 運轉資金管理
- 國内企業的簡介
- Ashok Leyland Limited(ALL)
- Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd(M&M)
- Tata Motors Limited(TML)
PART III：附錄
圖表
Abstract
SYNOPSIS
Indian Commercial Vehicle Industry: Too many speed breakers to pull down the growth in this fiscal
The commercial vehicle (CV) industry has always been linked to the country' s
industrial activities and the overall GDP. Post the economic downturn the CV
industry posted impressive growth of 36 percent in FY10 and 32 per cent in
FY11. The Goods Carrier (GC) segment continues to dominate the CV market with
approximate share of 88 per cent in FY11. The domestic market forms 90 per
cent of the total CV market and remaining is contributed by the exports where
the share has been increasing every year.
The CV market is set to experience significant changes primarily with the use
of hub and spoke model. By hub and spoke model, it is meant that the freight
is generated from certain regional cluster which is then transported to
various trucking centers or hubs spread across the country, where the goods
segregated and transported across the various spokes and finally through these
spokes the goods are delivered to the end consumers. It has been witnessed,
though there has been a strong volume growth in the LCV segment, the tonnage
growth has not been in the same line, depicting rising proportion of small
commercial vehicles (SCV). While in case of HCV, it is other way round, where
the growth in tonnage is higher than growth in volume terms indicating rising
proportion of heavy commercial vehicles (HCVs).
The key concerns for the industry continues in the form of rise in interest
rates and fuel prices coupled with expected slow down in the growth levels of
industrial production would affect transport operator' s business and may
curtail the current growth levels in CV demand in short term period. CARE
Research believes healthy medium to long term macro-economic outlook coupled
with increase in government focus towards development of transport
infrastructure would fade away short term concerns.
CARE Research believes most of the domestic manufacturers along with their JVs
will come out with new launches in multiple segments and use the advance
technology to gain market share in this oligopolistic
CV market. CARE Research foresees healthy growth of commercial vehicles in the
next 5 years, LCV sales are likely to outpace the medium and heavy commercial
vehicles (M&HCV) sales in terms of units and overall GC segment is estimated
to grow at a faster rate as against the passenger carriers (PC) segment.
CARE Research has developed a detailed statistical model that attempts to
forecast the domestic commercial vehicle sales separately for goods and
passenger use. The GC segment sales are forecasted on the basis of GDP growth
and thereby the growth in cargo, the existing fleet capacity and its
utilisation rate, while the PC segment sales are forecasted on the basis of
growth in population, the per capita travel depending on the income levels and
the split of travel between public and private modes of transport.
Other qualitative factors like macro-economic outlook, government actions,
consumer confidence, willingness of vehicle financers to finance purchases,
actions of OEMs like launches, aggressiveness, sales push techniques, dealer
network, etc. have also been quantitatively built in demand forecasting model.
Table of Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Commercial Vehicle (CV) industry back in top gear; growth to continue in
medium term...
- Domestic demand to grow at a CAGR of 12-13 per cent till FY16
- Goods carriers (GC) would continue to dominate the CV market
- Private operators and institutional buying to fuel demand for Passenger
Carrier (PC) segment
- Export to remain healthy for the next five years
- Top-line growth to remain healthy, but pressure on margins foreseen...
PART I INDUSTRY OUTLOOK
OUTLOOK ON DOMESTIC MARKET
- LCV to drive GC demand going forward...
- ...Sub-one tonne segment would continue to dominate LCV GC segment
- M&HCV GC to gain from healthy economic situation and infrastructure
developments
- Hub and spoke model has altered the dynamics of CV industry significantly
- Pressure on transport operators profitability to pull down growth in GC
segment 16
- Recent hike in diesel prices to push freight rate northwards; SFOs would
be more sensitive
- Interest rate hike - A bigger peril
- Concerns over slowdown in growth levels in CV industry would impact CV
financing as well
- Government initiatives towards improving public transport infrastructure
to push demand for PC
- segment
- M&HCV PC to lead the way...
- Recovery in global economy to fuel growth in exports
- Investments of around Rs.180 billion are expected in next 2-3 years
OUTLOOK ON PROFITABILITY
- Top-line to remain healthy
- Rise in S&D expenditure to negate the positives from softening in input
cost
- Net cash accruals to witness slowdown, while debt-equity to increase
marginally
PART II INDUSTRY BASICS
EVOLUTION AND CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE INDUSTRY
- Regulatory phase (upto 1985)
- Developmental phase (1985-1990)
- Liberalization phase (1992 - 2001)
- Modernization phase (2002 onwards)
INDUSTRY SEGMENTS AND COMPETITION
- GC segment has been the primary growth driver for the industry
- Strong demand from SCV segment led to considerable rise in its share in
LCV GC market
- M&M entry intensified the competitive scenario in the SCV segment
- HCVs and ICVs cannibalizing the market of MCVs
- ICVs witnessed healthy rise in demand during last one decade
- MCVs observing gradual drop in its share over last 5-6 years
- Increasing application of hub and spoke concept led to rise in the demand
for HCVs
- Increasing need for public transport infrastructure fuelled growth in PC
segment 35
- Rise in demand from tour operators and corporate have led to spurt in the
demand for LCV PC
- Institutional buying pushing the demand for M&HCV PCs
- HHI indicated diversity in player concentration ratio in different segments
DOMESTIC MARKET
- Buoyant freight demand kept CV domestic sales strong in FY11
- GC remained dominant segment in CV industry
- LCV GC lead the growth trajectory
- M&HCV GC continued to maintain healthy growth scenario
- Renewed government rigour towards improving public transport fuelled
growth in PC demand
- Demand Drivers
REGULATIONS
- Motor Vehicle Act
- Emission Norms
- Permits
- Carriage of Goods Act, 2007
- Custom Duty
- Excise Duty
- Age Norms
- Foreign direct investments
- VAT/Sales tax
EXPORTS
- CV exports witnessed a staggering rise in FY11
- GC continues to dominate CV exports
- PC also observed strong rise in exports during FY11
- Sri Lanka has emerged key export destination for CVs
COST ANALYSIS
- Raw Material Cost
- Steel
- Rubber
- Royalty and Research & Development Cost
- Selling and distribution costs
- Employee costs
CREDIT PROFILE
- Operating margins
- Net margins
- Return on Capital Employed (RoCE)
- Debt-Equity
- Working capital management
DOMESTIC PLAYER PROFILES
- Ashok Leyland Limited (ALL)
- Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd (M&M)
- Tata Motors Limited (TML)
PART III ANNEXURE
LIST OF CHARTS
- Estimated Growth In CV Industry
- Outlook on CV domestic sales
- Outlook on CV exports
- Outlook on Domestic CV Industry
- Outlook on Domestic GC Industry
- Trend in average freight rates and diesel prices
- Trend in repo rate during last 2 years
- Outlook on Finance Penetration in new CV sales
- Outlook on domestic sales of PC segment
- Outlook CV Exports
- Outlook on Capacity and Utilization Levels
- Outlook of Sales Revenue, Volume Growth and Realization Growth
- Outlook on input prices and EBITDA
- Key financial indicators
- Break up GC and PC industry in FY11
- Break up of GC industry (FY11)
- Trend in share of different sub-segments in LCV GC segment
- Trend in share of key players in less than 3.5 tonne market
- Trend in share of different sub-segments in M&HCV GC segment
- Trend in share of key players in ICVs segment
- Trend in share of key players in MCVs segment
- Trend in share of key players in HCVs segment
- Break up of PC industry (FY1)
- Trend in share of key players in LCV PC segment
- Trend in share of key players in M&HCV PC segment
- Herfindahl Hirschman Index (HHI) for different segments in CV industry
- Trend in domestic CV industry
- Trend in domestic GC industry
- Trend in domestic PC industry
- Trend in CV exports
- Trend in GC exports
- Trend in PC exports
- GC Exports - Destination wise export share (Value) in FY10
- Trend in Fixed asset turnover
LIST OF TABLES
- LCV - GC sub segment wise domestic sales forecast
- M&HCV GC sub segment wise domestic sales forecast
- PC sub segment wise domestic sales forecast
- LCV GC Sub-segment wise domestic sales
- M&HCV GC Sub-segment wise domestic sales
- PC Sub-segment wise domestic sales
- Trend in Emission Norms
- Excise and Custom duty on CV
- Raw material cost as a percentage to net sales (%)
- Annual Trend in steel prices
- Monthly trend in steel prices
- Annual Trend in Rubber prices
- Monthly Trend in Rubber prices
- R&D and Royalty cost as a percentage to net sales (%)
- Marketing and S&D cost as a percentage to net sales (%)
- Employee cost as a percentage to net sales (%)
- Trend in operating margins
- Trend in net margins
- Trend in return on capital employed (ROCE)
- Trend in debt-equity
- Key financial ratios
LIST OF EXHIBITS
- Hub and Spoke Model
- Comparison business model for LFO and SFO
- Evolution of CV industry
- Structure of CV Industry
- Demand Drivers
