印度乘用車產業 是由出版商CARE Research在2011年03月所出版的。
這份英文市場調查報告書價格從美金2500起跳。
全球大型車商因印度市場極具潛力，紛紛於印度乘用車展開各種策略，並計畫於2012年止新上市50以上車種及型號之轉變。
本報告為，詳細分析印度乘用車產業現況及未來預測，並匯整市場區隔趨勢、2015年止需求預測、中古車市場、進出口趨勢、費用趨勢、財務情形、主要國內企業簡介等資訊，以下列摘要形式闡述。
實施概要
第I部：市場展望
國內市場展望
- 國內需求：2015年止平均以13-14％成長
- 小型車市場：今後5年將以年平均15-16％成長
- 車種別市場：A4-A6區隔將留在利基市場
- 多用途汽車(MPV)部門：景氣不佳之運輸基礎設施促進成長
- 汽油車及柴油車之價差雖變大，但柴油車需求增加
- 柴油車：1天行駛30公里以上更距經濟效益
- 受柴油車帶動使乘用車產業成長
- 今後2-3年預計有50億美金之投資
- 因全球經濟復甦使其出口增加
收益展望
- 銷售利益穩定成長
- EBITDA：因原料價格上揚壓力持續增加
- 原料價格上揚：產業憂心項目
- 現金流量淨額低落，債務資本比率急增
需求預測方式
- 國內市場
- 需求區隔：私人用、商用
- 擁有數量
- 家計類（已調整）
- 等級I：收入分布
- 出口
中古車市場
- 中古車市場規模將增加6倍以上
- 小型車佔大半之中古車市場
- 未組織部門仍佔有中古車市場之地位
- 組織部門持續拓展其勢力
- 金融現況
- 低成本汽車需求增加：中古車市場之重要議題
- 中古車市場於2015年止將以年平均18-20％成長
第II部：產品基本特性
產品區隔及競爭
- 乘用車佔有多數之國內休旅車市場
- 小型車佔有多數之國內乘用車市場
- 中型車市場之競爭程度緩慢增加
- 車種別區隔：A4-A6之重要性最小
- 多用途四輪驅動車(UV)：佔有大比例乘用車市場
- 多用途汽車(MPV)部門：持續留在利基市場
法規
- 汽車法規
- 排放法規
- 財政法規
- 進口法規
- 國內消費稅
- 附加價值稅／銷售稅
國內市場
- 乘用車市場於2010年將可取回優勢
- 乘用車部門：主導成長軌道
- 多用途四輪驅動車部門：由2009年之衰退中快速恢復
- 多用途汽車部門：需求強勢增加
- 需求驅力
- 經濟因素
- 產業因素
貿易現況
- 乘用車出口穩定成長
- 歐洲仍將為主要出口國家
- Hyundai及Maruti Suzuki：主導之出口企業
- 乘用車進口：順利成長，但市場佔有率仍極小
- 德國為主要出口國
費用分析
- 原料成本
- 鋼鐵
- 塑膠
- 橡膠
- 鋁
- 專利權、研發費用
- 銷售、通路費用
- 工資
財務簡介
- 營業收入
- 純利
- 投資報酬的資本率(RoCE)
- 負債資本比例
- 營運資金管理
印度國內企業簡介
- Maruti Suzuki India Ltd (MSIL)
- Hyundai Motor India Ltd (HMIL)
- Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd (M&M)
第III部：附錄
圖表一覽
Abstract
SYNOPSIS
Indian Passenger Vehicle Industry: "Intensifying Competition"
The Passenger Vehicle (PV) industry has always been a barometer for the
economic strength of a nation. The Indian PV market sentiments have been
significantly positive post the economic downturn. The economic recovery
coupled with the introduction of new models, easy availability of finance and
aggressive pricing by almost all the players helped the industry to post such
a strong growth.
Sighting huge demand potential, almost all key manufacturers are forming
different strategies to like new model launches, promotional offers, etc in
order to enhance their market presence. It is expected that the Indian PV
market is likely to witness 50 launches including variants and new models by
FY12. Global majors like Honda, Hyundai, Volkswagen, Renault and Toyota are
likely to come up with new launches in the compact car segment thereby
intensify the competition level. Furthermore, the industry is also witnessing
a structural shift, as diesel cars are increasingly gaining ground on the back
of improvement in engine technology, which enhances fuel efficiency and lowers
emission levels. The rising gap between retail prices of diesel and petrol is
also influencing buyers to opt for diesel cars.
CARE Research believes long-term macro factors like low penetration, rising
disposable income and favourable demographics remains intact. At present, the
penetration levels for passenger cars in India is significantly lower as
compared to the emerging markets. The small car segment is likely to remain
the main stay of the industry. The competitive advantage arising out low-cost
destination, proximity to Asian markets and lower shipment costs makes India a
sourcing hub and a manufacturing base for the major Original Equipment
Manufacturers (OEM' s).
In FY10, almost all the manufacturers reported a healthy rise in their
top-line, driven by growth in both volumes and realisation. Operating margins
also observed improvement owing to drop in raw material prices. Going forward,
it is expected that the industry' s top-line will continue to witness a healthy
growth scenario; however, the industry would face challenges of rising raw
material prices and increase in interest cost, which would strain bottom-line.
CARE Research has developed a detailed statistical model that attempts to
forecast the domestic passenger vehicle sales. The sales are segregated
between personal use and commercial use based on the interaction with the
industry and analytical acumen. Vehicle sales for commercial sales is
forecasted based on the service sector GDP growth, while the vehicle sales for
personal use are forecasted based on ownership cost and the target household
that can afford to own a car. Other qualitative factors like macro-economic
outlook, consumer confidence, willingness of vehicle financers to finance
purchases, actions of OEMs like launches, aggressiveness, sales push
techniques, dealer network etc have also been quantitatively built in the
demand forecasting model.
Table of Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Passenger Vehicle (PV) industry back in top gear; growth to continue...
- Domestic demand to grow at a CAGR of 13-14 per cent till FY15
- Small would continue to dominate the Passenger Car (PC) market
- Export to remain healthy for the next five years
- Top-line growth to remain healthy, but pressure on margins foreseen...
SECTION I: INDUSTRY OUTLOOK
OUTLOOK ON DOMESTIC MARKET
- Domestic market is expected grow at a CAGR of 13-14 per cent till FY15
- Small car segment to grow at a CAGR of 15-16 per cent in next five years
- A4-A6 segment to remain niche segment
- Inadequate public transport infrastructure to fuel growth in MPV segment
- Widening gap between diesel and petrol prices, fuelling demand for diesel
cars
- Diesel vehicle becomes more economical when driven more than 30 kms/day
- Diesel vehicles to drive passenger vehicle industry
- Investments of around $5 billion expected in the next 2-3 years
- Recovery in global economy to fuel growth in exports
OUTLOOK ON PROFITABILITY
- Top-line to remain healthy
- EBITDA margins to remain under strain on the back of rise in input cost
- Rising input prices A concern for the industry
- Net cash accruals to witness drop, while debt-equity to increase marginally
DEMAND FORECASTING METHODOLOGY
- Domestic market
- Segregation of purchases for personal usage and commercial use
- Cost of ownership
- Adjusted Target Households
- Level I: Income distribution
- Exports
PRE-OWNED CAR MARKET
- The size of the second-hand car market has increased more than six-fold
- Similar to new car market, small cars dominate the second-hand car market
as well
- Unorganised segment continue to dominate the second-hand car market
- Organised market has been gaining momentum
- Financing scenario
- Increasing demand for low cost cars A key challenge for the second-hand
car market
- Second-hand car market to grow at CAGR of 18-20 per cent till FY15
SECTION II: INDUSTRY BASICS
INDUSTRY SEGMENTS AND COMPETITION
- PC continues to dominate the domestic PV industry
- Small cars dominates domestic PC market
- Competition levels have gradually risen in mid-size segment
- A4-A6 has miniscule presence in the industry
- UV forms significant portion in PV industry
- MPV segment continue to remain niche market
REGULATIONS
- Motor vehicle Act
- Emission norms
- Fiscal regulations
- Import duty
- Excise duty
- VAT/Sales tax
DOMESTIC MARKET
- PV industry regained the growth momentum in FY10
- Passenger car segment continued to lead the growth trajectory
- Utility vehicle segment recovered strongly, after sharp drop in FY09
- Multipurpose Vans segment observed strong rise on the back of upbeat demand
- Demand Drivers
- Economic factors
- Industry factors
TRADE SCENARIO
- PV exports continued to remain strong
- Europe remained the primary market for Indian PV exports
- Hyundai and Maruti Suzuki continue to remain the leading PV exporters
- PV imports have increased at a healthy rate, though they remain
insignificant
- Germany is a major exporter of PVs to India
COST ANALYSIS
- Raw material cost
- Steel
- Plastics
- Rubber
- Aluminium
- Royalty and Research & Development Cost
- Selling and distribution costs
- Employee costs
CREDIT PROFILE
- Operating margins
- Net margins
- Return on Capital Employed (RoCE)
- Debt-Equity
- Working capital management
DOMESTIC PLAYER PROFILES
- Maruti Suzuki India Ltd (MSIL)
- Hyundai Motor India Ltd (HMIL)
- Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd (M&M)
SECTION III: ANNEXURE
ANNEXURE
LIST OF CHARTS
- Estimated Growth In PV Industry
- Outlook on PV domestic sales
- Outlook on PV exports
- Outlook on Domestic PV Industry
- Population mix across different income class
- Outlook on domestic UV industry
- Outlook on domestic MPV industry
- Movement in Diesel and Petrol Prices
- Cost Comparison pre & post de regularisation
- Cost Comparison between diesel and petrol cars
- Diesel and Petrol mix in the PV industry
- Outlook Capacity and utilization levels
- Outlook on domestic PV Industry
- Outlook on steel and aluminium prices
- Growth in second hand car market
- Proportion of organised and unorganised in the used car market
- Value chain in an unorganised segment
- Value Chain in organised segment
- Estimated growth in used car market
- Estimated share of organised market by FY15
- Trend in Domestic PV Industry
- Trend in domestic PC industry
- Trend in domestic UV industry
- Trend in domestic MPV industry
- Trend in PV export
- Overseas market wise export share in FY10
- Player wise export share in FY10
- Trend in PV import
- Trend in fixed asset turnover
LIST OF TABLES
- Outlook on PV domestic sales
- PV: Segment wise domestic sales
- Segment wise PV exports
- Key financial indicators
- Cost comparisons between new and used cars
- Passenger cars: Segment wise market share
- UV & MPV: Market Share
- Change in technology for meeting various emission norms
- Import Duty Structure in PC industry
- Excise Duty Structure
- NATRIP Centres
- Segment wise domestic sales in PC market (in units)
- income distribution of Households
- PV: Key model launches
- PV Exports from India in FY10
- Raw material cost as a percentage to net sales (%)
- Raw materials break up by weight for a passenger car
- Annual Trend in steel prices
- Monthly trend in steel prices
- Annual Trend in Aluminium prices
- Monthly Trend in Aluminium prices
- R&D and Royalty cost as a percentage to net sales (%)
- S&D cost as a percentage to net sales (%)
- Employee cost as a percentage to net sales (%)
- Trend in operating margins
- Trend in net margins
- Trend in return on capital employed (ROCE)
- Trend in debt-equity
- Key financial ratios
LIST OF EXHIBITS
- Demand forecasting model
- Industry Structure of PV industry
- Regulatory Framework
- Demand Drivers
