本報告已在2011年12月28日停止出版。
更改為出版
Indian Tyre Industry
出版日期 : 2011年12月
商品編碼: 227320
在印度因為景氣的復甦及雇用狀況的改善，對汽車的需求也跟著回復，2009年被迫減速的輪胎業界的業績也在進入2010年後有大幅改善。
本報告內容介紹了汽車製造商對於卡車、巴士、汽車、機車、三輪車、拖拉機、LCV等各種車輛輪胎的需求與對備胎的需求，以汽車銷售與人口動態預測為基礎建立詳細的模型，其概要如下。
實施概要
第1章 業界展望
- 印度國內市場展望
- 到2015年止印度國內市場的CAGR為9∼10%
- 汽車製造商需要的CAGR是11%
- 成長原動力是轎車與吉普車
- 備胎預估以CAGR 8%成長
- 卡車與巴士用輪胎的需求將降低對備胎的需求
- 輪胎輸入量的成長有減緩的傾向
- 國內需求的成長大幅增加，是以輸出量無法成長
- 收益性相關預測
- 主要製造商強健
- 原價上揚造成強勁利幅壓縮壓力
- 未來4∼5年的投資金額為800億∼1,000億盧比
- 原價上漲是業界的不安要素
- 未來兩年內現金的收入將減少
第2章 業界基本數據
- 業界發展狀況
- 黎明期（1920∼1935年）
- 發展期（1935∼1960年）
- 法規強化期（1961∼1991年）
- 現代化期（1991年以來）
- 輪胎的基本資料
- 業界區隔
- 主要企業與競合狀況
- 需求
- 預期有急速成長的2010年輪胎市場
- 重要性提升的輸出市場
- 供給
- 對汽車的需求順利復甦中
- 使用程度的高漲是左右製造商的決定力
- 由於國內製造商的供給壓力，輸入量增加
- 成本分析
- 原料成本
- 人事費
- 能源成本
- 販售、配送成本
- 營業獲利率
- 季度表現
- 信用狀況
- 2009年因獲利率低下，成本獲利率也受到影響
- 負債資本比例確實減少
- 有效資本管理
- 印度國內的輪胎製造商概況
- Apollo Tyres Ltd.
- CEAT Ltd.
- JK Tyres Ltd.
- MRF Ltd.
第3章 附錄
圖表清單
Abstract
Indian tyre industry is on a brink of major structural change
Domestic tyre industry has witnessed a remarkable recovery in FY10, after a
slowdown in FY09. This growth was driven by strong revival in automobile
demand on the back of resurgence in economy, rise in employment levels, and
easing of interest rate scenario. Although strong demand growth is an
encouraging scenario for the domestic industry, rising imports has become key
concern factor off-late. Conservative estimates of tyre manufactures on
automobile demand scenario for FY10, led to supply constraints in the industry
and in-turn pushing imports. The situation was graver in T&B and passenger car
category tyres as compared to any other category. However, gauging the immense
market potential almost all the major manufacturers have announced aggressive
expansion plans for next 4 - 5 years which is expected to ease out the
supply constraint situation in the industry.
The tyre industry is on a brink of a major structural change. T&B which is a
dominant segment in terms of tonnage is witnessing a gradual rise in the
proportion of radial tyres. Going by the global trend it seems that the radial
tyre demand in India is at inflection point and with almost 97 - 98 per cent
of the passenger car tyre production has been radialised, T&B tyre category is
the next major category to witness spurt in the demand for radial tyres. And
with improvement in road infrastructure and better cost economics the
proportion of radial tyres in T&B category is expected to expand by around
seven times from the current levels. Sighting this opportunity, almost all the
expansion plans for T&B category tyres are for radial category tyres.
In FY10, almost all the manufacturers reported healthy rise in their top-line,
driven by growth in both volumes and realisation. Operating margins also
observed improvement owing to sharp drop in raw material prices. Going forward
it is expected that, industry' s top-line will continue to witness healthy
growth scenario, however industry would face challenge of rising raw material
prices and increase in interest cost.
CARE Research has developed detailed model for forecasting OEMs as well as
replacement demand for all the tyre categories like Truck and Bus (T&B),
passenger vehicles, two-wheelers, three-wheelers, tractors and light
commercial vehicles (LCV). Strong understanding of automobile as well as tyre
sector is percolated down to the auto component sector and thus the demand for
tyres is forecasted as well on the basis of projected automobile sales and
population.
Table of Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Domestic demand to witness healthy 9 - 10 per cent growth on long term
basis
- Radial tyre demand is at inflection point and set to spurt in T&B category
- Investment of around US $1.9 - 2.2 billion expected in next 5 years in
capex
- Capacity utilisation levels to remain strong
- EBDITA margins are expected to remain under pressure
- Challenging time ahead for the industry
SECTION I: INDUSTRY OUTLOOK
OUTLOOK ON DOMESTIC MARKET
- Domestic market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 9 - 10 per cent till
FY15
- OEM demand to grow at a CAGR of 11 per cent
- Cars & Jeep category to push growth in OEM offtake
- Replacement demand is expected to grow at a CAGR of 8 per cent
- Dominant T&B category to witness lower growth than the overall replacement
demand
- MAV operator can save around Re 1 per km by switching over to radial
tyres
- Radial tyres production in T&B category to increase by 50 per cent till
FY15
- Aggressive expansion lined up in T&B radial tyre category
- ......... Supply constraints may ease out
- Imports is expected to gradually slow down
- Exports to take backseat due to strong growth in domestic demand
OUTLOOK ON PROFITABILITY
- Top-line to remain healthy
- EBITDA margins to remain under strain on the back of rise in input cost
- Investment of around Rs. 8,000-10,000 crore expected in next 4-5 years
- Rising input prices - A concern for the industry
- Net cash accruals to witness drop in next two years, while interest
coverage to decline
SECTION II: INDUSTRY BASICS
EVOLUTION OF THE INDUSTRY
- Inception phase (1920 - 1935)
- Developmental phase (1935 - 1960)
- Restriction phase (1961 - 1991)
- Modernisation phase (1991 onwards)
TYRE BASICS
- Structure of the tyre
- Tread
- Casing ply
- Sidewalls
- Bead
- Performance parameters of tyres
- Tyre inflation
- Rolling resistance
- Tyre noise
- Tyre technology
INDUSTRY SEGMENTS
- Vehicle Categories
- Commercial usage
- Personal usage
- Markets
- Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs)
- Replacement Demand
- Exports
- Design
- Cross-ply tyres
- Radial Tyres
PLAYERS AND COMPETITION
- Most of the players have their respective areas of strength
- HHI indicated diversity in player concentration ratio between segments and
industry
- Apollo continued to dominate T&B category
- Apollo surpassed MRF to become leader in car & jeep category
- MRF continued to hold leadership position in LCV category
- MRF dominated two and three wheeler category tyres
- Goodyear remained market leader in tractor tyres
- MRF, CEAT and JK are the market leaders in OTR category
DEMAND
- Tyre demand registered strong growth in FY10
- T&B category witnessed strong push owing to recovery in freight demand
- Passenger cars & jeep category sales were led by favourable financing
options
- Two-wheeler tyre category also benefited from recovery in consumer
spending
- Tractor category witnessed sharp jump after decline in FY08 and FY09
- Export market gaining importance
- Strong demand from domestic market impacting exports
SUPPLY
- Strong revival in automobile demand cropped up supply constraint in tyre
industry
- Higher utilisation level ensured better pricing power with tyre
manufacturers
- Domestic supply constraints driving tyres imports
- Cars and T&B categories dominated overall imports.
- China continues to dominate overall imports
- Imposition of anti-dumping - A respite for the industry, but not for
long
COST ANALYSIS
- Raw material cost
- Rubber
- Nylon Tyre Cord Fabric (NTC)
- Carbon Black
- Employee Cost
- Energy Cost
- Selling and Distribution (S&D) Cost
- Operating margins
- Quarterly performance
CREDIT PROFILE
- Return on capital employed impacted due to lower profitability in FY09
- Debt-Equity ratio witnessed a steady decline
- Working capital management
DOMESTIC PLAYER PROFILES
- Apollo Tyres Ltd.
- CEAT Ltd.
- JK Tyres Ltd.
- MRF Ltd.
SECTION III: ANNEXURES
- Category wise Tyre Production - FY04-FY10 (Units in mn)
- Category wise Replacement Market offtakes - FY04-FY10 (Units in mn)
- Category wise OEM offtakes - FY04-FY10 (Units in mn)
- Category wise Exports - FY04-FY10 (Units in mn)
- Category Wise Estimates for Cross-ply and Radial tyre as % of total tyre
Production
- Category Wise Passenger Vehicle Production (units)
- Category Wise MHCV and LCV Production (units)
- Category Wise Two Wheelers and Three wheelers Production (units)
- Category Wise Tractor Production (units)
LIST OF CHARTS
- Expected growth in domestic tyre industry-OEM and Replacement
- Expected growth in domestic tyre industry-Category wise
- Growth in the penetration of radial tyres in T&B category production
- Estimated demand - supply gap in T&B radial tyre market in FY15
- Estimated trend in utilisation levels
- Outlook of domestic tyre industry
- Segment wise outlook on OEM offtake (in tonnes)
- Segment wise outlook on replacement off-take (in tonnes)
- Projected rise of T&B radial tyre production
- Estimates on breakeven point for the initial cost difference between
radial and cross-ply
- Evolution of radialisation in different countries
- Expected demand and supply scenario in T&B radial tyres
- Projected growth in tyre imports
- Projected growth in tyre exports
- Outlook on Indian Tyre Industry
- Expected growth in rubber prices
- Segment-wise share in commercial usage (in tonnage) for FY10
- Segment-wise share in personal usage (in tonnage) for FY10
- Share of OEM in total production for FY10 (in tonnage)
- Segment-wise share in OEM' s unit production for FY10 (per cent)
- Segment-wise share in OEM' s tonnage production for FY10 (per cent)
- Share replacement (in tonnage) for FY10
- Segment-wise share in replacement' s unit production for FY10
- Segment-wise share in replacement' s tonnage production for FY10
- Segment-wise share in exports for FY10 (in units)
- Segment-wise share in exports for FY10 (in tonnes)
- Proportion of cross-ply tyres in key segments (in tonnage) for FY10
- Segment wise share in demand of radial tyres (in tonnage) for FY10
- Player-wise market share in FY10 (units)
- Player-wise market share in FY10 (tonnes)
- Herfindahl Hirschman Index (HHI) for different segments in tyre industry
- Player-wise market share (%) - T&B tyres
- Player-wise market share (%) Cars and Jeep Tyres
- Player-wise market share (%) - LCV Tyres
- Player-wise market share (%)- Two Wheeler and Three Wheeler Tyres
- Player-wise market share (%)- Tractors Tyres
- Player-wise market share (%) - OTR
- Structure of a cross-ply tyre
- Tyre Inflation
- Trend in exports growth (Value in cr)
- Trend in exports growth (units)
- Trend in utilisation levels
- Trend in imports (in units)
- Trend in imports (in value)
- Trend in realization
- Trend in imports realisation of Chinese Tyres
- Consumption of raw materials in industry (MT)
- Annual trend in natural rubber prices
- Monthly trend in natural rubber prices
- Trend in NTC production (MT)
- Trend in Carbon Black production (MT)
- Trend in ROCE
- Trend in sales and assets
- Trend in Debt-Equity and Interest coverage
LIST OF TABLES
- Cost economics for radial and cross-ply tyres
- Key financial indicators-FY08 to FY12F
- Trend in demand (in tonnes) in T&B and LCV tyres
- Trend in demand (in tonnes) - Cars and Two wheeler tyres
- Trend in demand (in tonnes) Tractor Front and Tractor Rear
- Category-wise exports trend (in tonnes)
- Estimated Installed Capacity Trends (Units in mn)
- Key aggregates of the industry (units in million)
- Trend in Automotive Tyres Imports
- Top 10 countries from which India imports tyres
- Trend in Natural Rubber production, consumption and exports
- Trend in domestic PBR production and consumption (MT)
- Raw material cost as a percentage to sales (%)
- Employee cost as a percentage to sales (%)
- Energy cost as a percentage to sales (%)
- S&D cost as a percentage to sales (%)
- Operating margins (%)
- Key financial indicators (9 monthly)-Overall Industry
- Key Financial indicators-FY04 to FY09
- Apollo Tyre: Quarterly Financials
- CEAT: Quarterly Financials
- JK Tyres: Quarterly Financials
- MRF: Quarterly Financials
LIST OF EXHIBITS
- Evolution of Tyre Industry
- Industry segmentation
- Manufacturing process
- Demand drivers for T&B and LCV category tyres
- Demand drivers for Cars, Jeeps and Two-wheeler category tyres
