中國之酪農市場 是由出版商Beijing Orient Agribusiness Consultant在2010年03月所出版的。
這份英文市場調查報告書包含134 Pages 價格從美金5900起跳。
本報告為，調查中國酪農業現況及趨勢，特別是三聚氰胺事件後對酪農業鏈整體之分析及酪農業之政策、法規、需求及供給、主要技術、酪農業相關產業、酪農規模之SWOT分析、傳染病等，以下列摘要形式闡述。
第1章 中國乳製品之市場概要
- 牛乳、乳製品加工產業之成長趨勢
- 國內經濟之酪農業有緩和改善
- 中國由牛乳產量不足轉變為牛乳生產大國
- 中國要從生產大國轉變為競合性之牛乳市場尚須時間
第2章 中國酪農業之政策、法規分析
- 國務院對酪農業持續穩健發展所發表之意見
- 乳製品之品質及安全管理相關之管理規定
- 乳製品產業之調整及振興計劃
- 乳製品加工產業之政策(2009年修正案)
- 生乳市場之法規
- 生乳之價格調整機制
- 優良品種之補助
- 農業機械之補助
- 乳牛保險
- 對乳製及動物產品進口之管理
- 生乳之價格
第3章 酪農業之主要技術分析
第4章 酪農業之供給分析
第5章 酪農業之需求分析
- 中國民眾與其他國家對乳製品消費之差別
- 中國民眾對食品營養需求之分析
第6章 酪農業之市場環境分析
第7章 中國之酪農業相關產業分析
第8章 酪農業之成本效益分析：規模別
- 酪農
- 小規模酪農
- 大規模酪農
- 三聚氰胺事件後牛乳產地之大規模酪農場效益
- 成本效益分析：酪農規模別
第9章 SWOT分析：酪農規模別
- 小規模酪農
- 酪農地區
- 酪農家之競合
- 牛乳聯盟
- 乳製品加工企業持有之農場
- 酪農風格之趨勢
第10章 酪農業之傳染病環境分析
- 傳染病之分類
- 乳牛傳染病之地區表示圖
- 傳染病及乳牛保險政策
第11章 中國三聚氰胺事件之影響分析及酪農業之金融風暴
- 對乳牛價格之影響及生乳價格趨勢
- 乳牛短期性減少
- 排除利潤低之乳牛，以利益優先
- 生乳市場之管理標準
- 持續改善，生乳規格慢慢與國際標準合作，等
第12章 酪農業之投資機會分析
- 市場需求
- 擠奶設備
- 農場管理軟體系統
- 牛奶測試設備
- 人力訓練
圖表
Abstract
Research Background
Both the national economy and the income of urban and rural residents rose
quickly in the past decade, and the dairy industry gained a substantial
development thanks to Government promotion, mobilization from the processing
industry, consumption and export demand, and rising of residents' conscience
on nutrition and health care. China grew into a big dairy country from one
that was short of milk. The national cow milk output rose from 6,011,000 tons
in 1997 to 35,127,000 tons in 2007, and dairy cattle inventory from 4,265,000
to 13,879,000 during the same period of time, up by 2.25 folds and 4.84 folds
respectively. And, the yield of the whole herd rose from 1,409,000kg to
2,531,000kg, up by 79.58%. Mengniu and Yili, the two largest dairy companies
in China, saw over 20 billion yuan of yearly sales revenue in 2008, and are in
the world top 20 of dairy companies from the perspective of scale. In general,
China' s dairy industry went through a track of quantity expansion in the past
decade, whereas there are lots of deep-rooted contradictions and problems,
which are mainly (1) low percentage of elite dairy cattle breeds and poor milk
yield level. In 2006, the dairy cattle inventory was 13.632 million in the
nation, of which pure-breed Holstein cattle around 35%, lots of the Holstein
cattle reared in the crop producing regions and pastoral regions are cross
breeds between Holstein and local cows, making up around 35-40%. In addition,
there are 2 million dairy/beef cattle reared in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang
for both milk and meat purposes, including Xinjiang Brown Cattle, Grassland
Red Cattle, Sanhe Cattle, Simmental and etc., and the cow yield is less than
2,000kg. China Holstein pure breed, the mainstream breed of dairy cattle in
China, has a big gap with developed countries in various production
performance indicators, and the milk yield (4,100kg average cow yield) is
merely 60% of the world advanced level. The percentage of elite breeds is
poor, Holstein pure-breed cattle and local cross breeds aggregate less than
80% of the total. Breeding capability with special characteristics is at a low
level, some places even suffer from degradation. (2) Low scaled farming level
and backward feeding methods. Dairy farming is based on smallholder farmers,
and 80% of the dairy cattle in the nation are reared by farmers with inventory
less than 10. (3) Poor ratio of quality coarse feed. The composition of dairy
cattle feed is not based on a scientific formula, and the conventional feed
for most of the cattle is coarse feed based on corn stalk. There is lacking of
quality coarse feed, specially quality alfalfa or other fodder. This restrains
further improvement of production performance of dairy cattle and is a crucial
factor for nutrition metabolism diseases. (4) Poor raw milk quality and low
procurement standard. Neither the physical nor the chemical indices or the
hygienic indices of raw milk quality is ideal, the hygienic indices of raw
milk are worrisome and related standards can hardly meet the international
norms. (5) There is high incidence of primary diseases of dairy cattle, and
epidemic control, quarantine or supervision system is outdated. Alongside the
rising of "popularity of dairy cattle" nationwide in recent years, there has
been "popularity of cattle trading" as well. There are outbreaks of cattle
tuberculosis, Paratuberculosis and Brucelliasis in certain places in China,
and there is a trend of proliferation. (6) The development of dairy farmers'
cooperatives is outdated, becoming a bottle neck of the sustainable
development of the dairy industry.
2008 saw the outbreak of the "Sanlu infant' s formula milk incident" or
"melamine incident". The national dairy industrial chain was seriously
affected, and the incident was attributable to raw milk. After the incident,
smallholder farmers confronted with unprecedented difficulties and elimination
by the market. Also after the incident, the dairy cattle inventory fell
noticeably, dropping to 13 million in the end of 2008, and there was a further
shrinkage to 12 million in the first quarter of 2009. The dairy farming
industry in China is about to see a profound restructuring. Since the melamine
incident in 2008, the Government has strengthened regulating and
administration over the whole dairy industrial chain, especially regulating
and administration over dairy farming has reached an unprecedented level.
Among the policies and regulations promulgated by the Government, the
representative ones are the "Administrative Rules of Dairy Product Quality,
Safety and Supervision" and the "Food Safety Law". The melamine incident
resulted to pacing up of the transition of China' s dairy farming mode, i.e.,
shifting from extensive quantity expansion to scaled and intensive farming
with quality and efficiency.
By far, the dairy industry has grown from small to big, however, compared with
the mature dairy industry of developed countries, China' s dairy farming
industry is still at an infant stage and should learn from the advanced
countries. The dairy farming industry of China has a huge demand for foreign
resource thanks to the accelerated transfer of farming mode and the related
profound reform. Based on concrete data, this report illustrates the current
status and the trend of the dairy farming industry of China after a study on
the whole dairy farming chain in the past decade and especially after the
melamine incident. This report is composed by the top think tank of China' s
dairy industry, and is a rare reference for companies, institutions or
researchers who wish to benefit from the huge development opportunity of
China' s dairy farming industry after the melamine incident.
Table of Contents
Research Background 1
Summary 1
1. Overview of China' s Dairy Market 5
- 1.1 Growing Trend of Processing Industry of Milk and Dairy Products 5
- 1.1.1 Dairy Cattle Inventory 5
- 1.1.2 Milk Production 5
- 1.1.3 Cow Yield 5
- 1.1.4 Dairy Cattle Farming Scale 6
- 1.1.5 Liquid Milk Production 6
- 1.1.6 Production of Dry Dairy Products 7
- 1.1.7 Per Capita Milk Possession Volume 8
- 1.1.8 Trade of Dairy Products and Dairy Animals 9
- 1.2 Gradual Improvement of Dairy Farming Industry in National Economy 11
- 1.3 China Shifted from Milk-insufficiency to Big Producer of Milk in the
World 12
- 1.4 Time Is Needed for China to Shift from A Big Milk Producer to A
Competitive Milk
2. Analysis of Policies and Regulations on Dairy Farming Industry in China 14
- 2.1 Comments on Promotion of Constant and Healthy Development of Dairy
Industry from the State Council (Guo Fa [2007] 31) 14
- 2.2 Administrative Rules on Dairy Quality and Safety Supervision 16
- 2.3 Plan on Dairy Industry Rectification and Vitalization 16
- 2.4 Industrial Policy on Dairy Processing (2009 amendment) 19
- 2.5 Regulating Raw Milk Market Order 21
- 2.6 Regulating Raw Milk Pricing Mechanism 22
- 2.7 Subsidy for Elite Breeds 23
- 2.8 Subsidy for Agro Machinery 24
- 2.9 Insurance for Dairy Cattle 25
- 2.10 Control over Import of Dairy Animal Products 26
- 2.11 Raw Milk Standard 27
3. Analysis of Major Technologies of Dairy Farming Industry 33
- 3.1 Embryo Bioengineering Technology 33
- 3.2 DHI Performance Test 37
4. Analysis of Supply of Dairy Cattle Farming Industry 39
- 4.1 Dairy Cattle Inventory 39
- 4.1.1 Dairy Cattle Breeds 39
- 4.1.2 Dairy Cattle Inventory 39
- 4.2 Milk Production 42
- 4.2.1 Gross Raw Milk Production 42
- 4.2.2 Raw Milk Production Layout of Various Places and Cow Yield 42
- 4.3 Dairy Cattle Introduction 45
- 4.3.1 Live Cattle 45
- 4.3.2 Frozen Semen 46
- 4.3.3 Embryos 47
5. Analysis of Demand of Dairy Cattle Farming Industry 49
- 5.1 Disparity in Dairy Consumption between Chinese Residents and Other
Countries 49
- 5.2 Analysis of Demand for Food Nutrition of Chinese Residents 50
6. Analysis of Marketing Environment of Dairy Cattle Farming Industry 53
- 6.1 Trading Market of Dairy Cattle and Germ Plasm 53
- 6.1.1 Importation Procedure and Supervision over Import of Dairy Cattle
and Germ Plasm 53
- 6.1.2 Major Suppliers of Dairy Cattle and Its Germ Plasm 54
- 6.1.3 Pricing Mechanism of Dairy Cattle and Germ Plasm in China 57
- 6.2 Raw Milk Trading Market in China 61
- 6.2.1 Raw Milk Pricing Mechanism 61
- 6.2.2 Composition of Raw Milk Price 61
- 6.2.3 Roles of Raw Milk Procurement Stations (milk stations) in Raw Milk
Pricing 62
- 6.2.4 Impact from Government on Raw Milk Price 63
7. Analysis of Dairy Cattle Related Industries in China 65
- 7.1 Feed 65
- 7.2 Milking and Relevant Equipment 67
- 7.2.1 Milking Equipment 67
- 7.2.2 Cooling Tanks 68
- 7.3 Vaccines 69
8. Analysis of Cost-Benefit of Dairy Farms of Different Scales 70
- 8.1 Dairy Cattle Farming Scales 70
- 8.2 Smallholder Farming 72
- 8.3 Scaled Farms 76
- 8.4 Efficiency of Some Scaled Dairy Cattle Farms in Raw Milk Producing
Regions after Melamine Incident 89
- 8.5. Analysis of Cost-Benefit of Different Farming Scales 94
9. SWOT Analysis of Different Farming Scales 97
- 9.1 Smallholder Farms 97
- 9.2 Farming Zones 98
- 9.3 Dairy Farmers' Cooperatives 99
- 9.4 Milk Unions 99
- 9.5 Farms Owned by Dairy Processing Companies 101
- 9.6 Trend of Dairy Cattle Farming Modes 102
10. Analysis of Epidemic Environment of Dairy Cattle Farming Industry 103
- 10.1 Epidemic Categories 103
- 10.2 Regional Layout of Dairy Cattle Epidemics 103
- 10.3 Epidemic Control and Dairy Cattle Insurance Policy 105
- 10.3.1 Prevention of Dairy Cattle Disease 105
- 10.3.2 Policy Insurance 105
11. Analysis of Impacts from Melamine Incident and Financial Crisis to Dairy Cattle Farming Industry in China 124
- 11.1 Impact on Dairy Cattle Price and Raw Milk Price Trend 124
- 11.2 Short-term Decline of Dairy Cattle Inventory 125
- 11.3 Accelerated Elimination of Low-yield Dairy Cattle and Improvement of
Yield 125
- 11.4 Heightening of Threshold to Dairy Cattle Farming Industry 126
- 11.4.1 Prerequisite for Establishment of Dairy Farms and Farming Zones
126
- 11.4.2 Prerequisite for Opening Raw Fresh Milk Procurement Stations
(milk stations) 126
- 11.5 Pacing up Transition from Extensive to Scaled, Intensive and Quality
Efficiency Farming 127
- 11.6 Slowing down of Development of Dairy Cattle Farming Industry to
Become Normal 127
- 11.7 Standardization of Supervision over Raw Milk Market 128
- 11.8 Raw Milk Quality Standard Gradually Links up with International Norms
with Accelerated Improvement 128
12. Analysis of Investment Opportunities of Dairy cattle farming industry 130
- 12.1 Market Demand 131
- 12.1.1 Feed 131
- 12.1.2 Live Animals 131
- 12.1.3 Frozen Semen and Embryos 131
- 12.1.4 Vaccines 132
- 12.2 Milking Equipment 132
- 12.3 Farm Management Software System 132
- 12.4 Testing Facilities of Raw Milk 132
- 12.5 Training of Human Resources 133
Figures & Tables
- Figure 1.1 Trend of Cow Yield, 1999-2008 6
- Figure 1-2 Liquid Milk Production and Changing Trend, 2000-2008 7
- Figure 1-3 Liquid Milk Production and Changing Trend, by Month, 2000-2008 7
- Figure 1-4 Changing Trend of Production of Solid Dairy Products, 1997-2008
8
- Figure 1-5 Changing Trend of Production of Solid Dairy Products, by Month,
2006-2008 8
- Figure 4-1 Growing Trend of Dairy Cattle Inventory, 1997-2008 40
- Figure 4-2 Dairy Cattle Inventory Layout, 2008 41
- Figure 8-2 Structure of Dairy Cattle Farming Scales, by Inventory, 2007 72
- Figure 8-2 Proportion of Feed Cost in Raw Milk Price of Different Farming
Scales, 2004-2007 95
- Figure 11-1 Raw Milk Price Trend after Melamine Incident 125
- Table 1-1 Per Capita Dairy Possession Volume and Forecast, 1992-2008 9
- Table 1-2 Dairy Imports, 2007-2008 10
- Table 1-3 Structural Change of Dairy Import, by Quantity, 2007-2008 10
- Table 1-4 Dairy Export, 2008 10
- Table 1-5 Imports of Cattle, Frozen Semen and Embryos 11
- Table 1-6 Status of Dairy Farming in National Economy, 2000-2008 11
- Table 1-7 Status of China' s Dairy Farming Industry in the World, 2000-2008
12
- Table 2-1 Physical and Chemical Indices 28
- Table 2-2 Bacteria Indices 1-Total Bacteria Count (TBC) in 1 mg 28
- Table 2-3 Bacteria indices 2- methylene blue decolorization time 29
- Table 2-4 Sensual Indices 29
- Table 2-5 Physical and Chemical Indices 29
- Table 2-6 Microorganism Indices 29
- Table 2-7 Sensual Indices 31
- Table 2-8 Physical and Chemical Indices 31
- Table 2-9 Somatic Cell Count (SCC) 31
- Table 2-10 Microorganism index 32
- Table 3-1 Breeding Bull Breeds of Main Breeding Companies in China and
Inventory, 2008 34
- Table 3-2 Major Indices of Production Performance of DHI Tested Farms in
Key Provinces, 2008 37
- Table 3-3 Production Performance of Different Inventory of DHI Tested
Farms in Key Provinces, 2008 38
- Table 4-1 Dairy Cattle Inventory by Province, 2008 40
- Table 4-2 Gross Raw Milk Production, Cow Milk Production and Growth,
1996-2008 42
- Table 4-3 Milk Production and Average Cow Yield of Different Provinces,
2008 43
- Table 4-4 Top 10 Provinces in Cow Milk Production in 2008 44
- Table 4-5 Top 10 Cities in Cow Milk Production in 2008 44
- Table 4-6 City at Prefecture Level with Cow Milk Production Over 500,000
Tons in 2008 44
- Table 4-7 Origins of Introduction of Cattle for Breed Improvement
(H.S.01021000), 2006-2008 45
- Table 4-8 Destinations of Introduction of Cattle for Breed Improvement,
2006-2008 46
- Table 4-9 Origins of Frozen Bull Semen Import (H.S.05111000), 2006-2008 46
- Table 4-10 Importing Regions of Frozen Bull Semen, 2006-2008 47
- Table 4-11 Origins of Cattle Embryo Import (HS05119920), 2006-2008 48
- Table 4-12 Importing Provinces of Cattle Embryos, 2006-2008 48
- Table 5-1 Comparison of Consumption of Liquid Milk and Dairy Products
between China and Some Asian Countries, 2008 49
- Table 5-2 Comparison of Growth of GDP, Growth of Per Capita Disposable
Income and Dairy Consumption of Urban Resident, 2002-2008 51
- Table 6-1 Extension Scale of Well-bred Frozen Semen by Major Domestic
Breeding Companies, 2008 55
- Table 6-2 Proportion of Top 10 Companies in Frozen Semen Extension in
National Total, 2008 56
- Table 6-3 Foreign-funded Breeding Agencies in China 57
- Table 6-4 Price of Holstein Dairy Cattle, 2008 58
- Table 6-5 Price of Frozen Bull Semen of Beijing Dairy Cattle Center 58
- (valid from August 1st, 2008 to December 31st, 2008) 58
- Table 6-6 Price of Gender-control Separated Semen and Imported Frozen Bull
Semen of Beijing Dairy Cattle Center 59
- Table 6-7 Price of Holstein Embryos of Beijing Dairy Cattle Center, 2006 60
- Table 7-1 Average Demand for Feed of Different Stages of Dairy Cattle in A
year (kg) 65
- Table 7-2 Imports of Forage Grass Seeds, 2006-2008 66
- Table 8-1 Changes of Dairy Cattle Farming Scales, 2002-2007 71
- Table 8-2 Changes of Dairy Cattle Production Cost and Benefit under
Smallholder (1) Farming Mode, 2001-2007 73
- Table 8-3 Comparison between Cost and Benefit of Smallholder Farming in
Some Key Raw Milk Producing Regions, 2007 74
- Table 8-4 Changes of Cost and Benefit of Scaled Farming, 2001-2003 77
- Table 8-5 Changes of Cost and Benefit of Small-scale Farming, 2004-2007 79
- Table 8-6 Comparison between Cost and Benefit of Small-scale Farming in
Some Key Raw Milk Producing Regions, 2007 81
- Table 8-7 Changes of Cost and Benefit of Medium-scale Farming, 2004-2007 83
- Table 8-8 Comparison between Cost and Benefit of Medium-scale Farming in
Some Key Raw Milk Producing Regions, 2007 84
- Table 8-9 Changes of Cost and Benefit of Large-scale Farming, 2004-2007 86
- Table 8-10 Comparison between Cost and Benefit of Large-scale Farming in
Some Key Raw Milk Producing Regions, 2007 87
- Table 8-11 Cost-benefit of Some Scaled Dairy Cattle Farms in Raw Milk
Producing Regions after Melamine Incident 90
- Table 8-12 Changes of Feed Cost for Per KG Raw Milk and Raw Milk Price of
Different Farming Scales, 2004-2007 94
- Table 8-13 Comparison of Gross Profit Rate, Cost Profit Rate and Sales
Profit Rate of Different Farming Scales, 2004-2007 95
- Table 8-14 Unit Cost of Dairy Cattle Production of Different Farming
Scales in Heilongjiang, 2003-2007 95
- Table 10-1 Epidemics, Prevention and Control of Some Dairy Farming Regions
103
- Annex: Supply and Demand Balance of Raw Milk Market 134
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