Product Code: 2398-0869
BMI View: MENA's power sector is relatively developed, with many markets having robust power project
pipelines - as governments endeavour to meet pent-up power demand. Egypt will be a key driver of this
growth as the country meets surging power demand, while regional oil exporters will rationalise their
power sector spending in light of falling oil prices.
- Lower oil prices will have a differing impact on the countries in the MENA region as net importers and net exporters of oil adjust to the new price environment. For the large oil exporting economies, this will entail rationalised infrastructure spending plans. We do stress that oil exporters such as Saudi Arabia, UAE and Kuwait hold substantial foreign reserves and fiscal buffers - meaning that infrastructure spending will remain elevated and government-driven.
- The GCC markets maintain their outperformance in our MENA RRI, owing to continued significant government investment - despite ongoing fiscal consolidation in the face of low oil prices - and their more stable investment environments. Our newly expanded regional coverage has resulted in Iraq and Lebanon entering the bottom of the ranking tables, a position we expect them to maintain over coming quarters, due to the sizeable risks facing prospective investors
- Momentum behind gas projects in the Middle East has accelerated under low oil prices as countries eye gas to boost domestic power generation and as a means of diversifying exports.
- Renewables capacity will account for only a small fraction of electricity generation in the MENA region over our 10-year forecast period due to heavy reliance on accessible and relatively economic gas- and oilfired generation in major markets. Amid the muted outlook for growth we do highlight some investment bright spots - specifically the UAE, Morocco and potentially Egypt.
Table of Contents
BMI Industry View
- Table: MENA Headline Power Forecasts
Regional Forecast Analysis
- MEA: Key Themes
- Table: UAE - Huge Bid Reductions Cements Outperformer Status
Industry Risk Reward Index
- MENA Power Risk Reward Index
- Table: MENA Power Risk/Reward Index (Scores Out Of 100)
- Middle East - Low Oil Price Supports Gas Projects
- MENA Renewables: Selective Investment Key Amid Muted Growth
- Egypt: Gas Mega-Projects And Offshore Production Underpin Forecasts
- Methodology And Sources
- Industry Forecast Methodology
- Risk/Reward Index Methodology
- Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
- Table: Weighting Of Indicators