Global Lead Metals Report Q4 2016
|出版日期||內容資訊||英文 74 Pages
BMI View: Lead prices will gradually edge higher as the global lead market will shift into deficit by 2018 as production growth will slow over the coming years.
We have revised up our lead price forecast for 2016 due to both positive investment sentiment and a tightening of the market. We expect lead prices to average USD1,800/tonne in 2016, up from our previous forecast of USD,1750/tonne. Meanwhile, we have slightly downgraded our forecast out to 2020, as we expect a less-significant recovery in prices, going forward.
The global primary lead market will shift into deficit by 2018 on the back of persistent supply cuts. Mined lead production will be hit by a global slowdown in mining capital expenditure, which will have a knock-on effect on refined lead supply growth. We forecast consumption to exceed production by 11 thousand tonnes (kt) in 2018, following a surplus of 27kt and 3kt in 2015 and 2016, respectively. As a result, the global stocks-to-use ratio will peak in 2016 at 6.3% and edge lower in subsequent years, reaching 5.6% by 2020.