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錫金屬的全球市場分析 (以季度為基礎)

Global Tin Metals Report Q4 2016

出版商 BMI Research 商品編碼 353393
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 53 Pages
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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錫金屬的全球市場分析 (以季度為基礎) Global Tin Metals Report Q4 2016
出版日期: 2016年08月31日 內容資訊: 英文 53 Pages




  • 商品市場趨勢預測


  • 產業趨勢分析


  • 全球錫礦業概況:預計持續成長率低


  • 企業簡介
  • Malaysia Smelting Corporation Berhad
  • Minsur
  • PT Timah
  • Yunnan Tin


  • 錫:生產平衡
  • 生產量的預測
  • 消費量的預測


Product Code: 2397-5180

BMI View: We maintain our tin price forecasts at USD16,500/tonne in 2016 with gradual increases to USD20,500/tonne by 2020 as the global tin market posts sustained market deficits and inventories dwindle. However, the strong rally in H116 will fade over the coming months as a narrowing deficit will ease supply constraints. As a result, we are neutral towards H216.

Latest Developments And Structural Trends

Price Forecast

  • We maintain our tin price forecast at an average of USD16,500/tonne in 2016 and USD17,500/tonne in 2017. Although the supply constraint in the tin market has eased in 2016 (we forecast a deficit of 4.6kt) as compared to 2015 (deficit of 6.7kt), the price rally has run ahead of the fundamentals. This is because of a combination of speculative trading and positive investor sentiment stemming from China's economic stabilisation in H116 and the market reacting strongly to the steep refined tin deficit in 2015, after a surplus of 13.9kt in 2014.
  • Tin prices have bottomed in 2016, although the rally in the year-to-date is not representative of the long term outlook for the metal, and cannot be sustained. Chinese refined tin production and consumption data show that there has been a rapid narrowing of the market deficit in the year-to-date, which brought us to revise our forecasts to show a smaller global deficit in 2016 than 2015. Thus, we expect the price rally will ease over the coming months as a narrower deficit will start to reflect in prices, giving way to more gradual and modest increases in the coming years owing to shrinking inventories and prolonged deficits. We expect the deficit to narrow gradually from 4.6mnt in 2016 to 2.3mnt by 2020, and are thus maintaining our price forecasts for now.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View

  • Table: Global - Tin Supply, Demand & Price Forecasts

Price Forecast

  • Commodities Forecast
    • Table: BMI Tin Price Forecast
    • Table: Tin Forecasts

Global Trends In Supply, Demand And Trade

  • Global - Tin: Market To Remain In Deficit
    • Table: Global Tin Forecasts
    • Table: Tin Production Forecasts
    • Table: Tin Consumption Forecasts

Mine Supply: Tin Ore

  • Global - Tin: Slower Production Growth Ahead
    • Table: Global Tin Ore Production Forecast (2011-2020)
    • Table: Global Selected Tin Projects

Competitive Landscape

  • Table: Global - Top 10 Tin Producers By 2015 Output
  • Table: Selected Tin Companies, 2014

Company Profile

  • Malaysia Smelting Corporation Berhad
    • Table: MSC - Key Financial Data
  • PT Timah
    • Table: PT Timah - Key Financial Data
  • Minsur
    • Table: Minsur - Latest Annual Financial Results
  • Yunnan Tin
    • Table: Yunnan Tin - Latest Annual Financial Data

Data Appendix

  • Tin Production Balance
    • Table: Global Tin Forecasts
  • Production Forecasts
    • Table: Tin Production Forecasts
  • Consumption Forecasts
    • Table: Tin Consumption Forecasts


  • Cross Checks
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