東北關東大地震：對全球經濟的影響

本報告已在2012年04月18日停止出版。

簡介

Business Monitor International公司與Global Information, Inc.將本報告銷售額的全額捐給日本紅十字會。

2011年3月11日所發生的東北關東大地震及緊接著發生的福島核爆危機讓日本的GDP損失3∼5％。此外追加的財政支出、也可能讓日本的財政危機陷入緊張。在日本、所有的公共部門的負債超過GDP的200％、政府部分在處理財政紅字的削減前首先須支出復舊的部分。建設業界受到復舊需求、海運及汽車、製造、農業等產業長期性嚴苛的狀況展望、物流的混亂帶給全球供應商負面的影響之可能性。此外、受到核爆事件、不只日本，全球各國對於核能使用的危險性的重新評價的趨勢擴大、東南亞各國等所投入的資金及援助皆暫停等相繼受到影響。

本報告書內容包括:中東和北非地區的政治混亂持續中所發生的東北關東大地震對日本和全球經濟帶來深刻影響的分析、基礎架構、海運、汽車、石油瓦斯、農業等主要產業受到影響、全球的商品交易市場及亞太地區各國所受的影響等檢討、內容綱要摘記如下:

介紹

• 陷入危機狀況的日本
  • 第二次世界大戰後最慘的災害

經濟和市場的影響

• 震災後的狀況
  • 當初的計畫
  • 市場的影響

產業的影響

• 大型建設公司的股票好轉
  • 平均股價急速下降
  • 國內產業的展望
  • 對全球各種產業領域的影響

基礎架構相關業界的展望

• 持續不景氣的建設業界之復活
  • 嚴苛的財政狀況為課題

汽車產業界的展望

• 生產能力下降是不可避免的
  • 受到重害的東北地區供給企業

海運業界的展望

• 破壞海運業界的影響
  • 復舊需求跟隨的可能性
  • 6個港在幾個月間陷入功能不全的可能性
  • 海運公司的股價急速下降

石油瓦斯業界的展望

• 預計増加的LNG進口量
  • 能源基礎架構對海嘯的受害
  • 留存的紀錄中最大規模的地震
  • 對能源市場的影響
  • 緊急狀態的對應

農業的展望

• 短期間進口的減速
  • 中期的需求擴大
  • 短期的影響：進口減少和價格提升
  • 受害的報價
  • 對全球市場的短期否定影響
  • 中期的影響：肉和主要穀物進口的增加
  • 長期的影響：農產品生產能力降低、所得下降中需求也低調
  • 所預測的風險

全球的核能發電業界的展望

• 福島核能發電廠的爐心融溶事件
  • 安全性的疑問

亞洲各國對開發援助的展望

• 日本所實施的基礎架構相關之海外直接投資可能陷入危機的狀況
  • 可能受影響的大規模計劃

澳洲經濟的展望

• 鐵礦石和原料炭的出口量減少的可能性
  • 回復在2012年以後
  • 天然氣和一般碳的領域有明確的徵兆
  • 2012年以後復舊需求上會增加出口量

印尼經濟的展望

• 地震的影響
  • 對印尼直接投資的打擊
  • 日本專用出口的暫時性影響
  • 對印尼直接投資：2011年中地震的影響仍留存

菲律賓經濟的影響

• 地震的影響
  • 援助和貿易的惡劣影響
  • 日本出口的減速
  • 日本的經濟性影響力降低

圖表

目錄

Business Monitor International and Global Information Inc. will donate all proceeds from sales of this report to the Japanese Red Cross Society.

Abstract

Product Description

Business Monitor International (BMI)' s special report ‘Japan Earthquake: Global Implications’ examines the consequences of the March 11, 2011, earthquake on the Japanese and global economies. The report also analyses the impact of the crisis on key industrial sectors, including infrastructure, shipping, automotives, oil & gas, and agriculture.

BMI' s report asserts that the aftermath of the earthquake and the nuclear crisis represent major shocks to the global economy, especially because they have coincided with unprecedented political upheaval in the Middle East and North Africa. The report examines the impact on global commodity prices and on the most affected countries in the Asia-Pacific region.

Key Findings

• Between 3-5% will be knocked off Japan' s GDP by the March 11th earthquake and subsequent nuclear crisis, although reconstruction efforts will subsequently boost economic activity.
• Extra fiscal spending may well bring forward an eventual fiscal crisis. Japan already has the world' s highest public debt burden, in excess of 200% of GDP, but the government will prioritise spending over deficit reduction.
• Construction will receive a boost, while other industries are likely to suffer for a significant period of time. Shipping, automotives, manufacturing and agriculture are likely to be worst affected. Disruption will in turn negatively affect global supply chains.
• The nuclear crisis will prompt a reassessment of the wisdom and risks of using nuclear power, not just in Japan, but worldwide.
• Several Asia-Pacific states stand to incur economic costs as a result of the earthquake, Japan is a major investor and aid donor in South East Asia and these funds could now be redirected homeward for reconstruction.

Table of Contents

Introduction

• A Country In Crisis
  • The Worst Disaster Since World War ll

• CHART: DEVASTATING IMPACT
• Japan - Key Nuclear Facilities And Quake Zone

• CHART: TOPIX TOPS OUT
• Japan - Topix (LHS) & Daily Sector Performance (RHS)

Economic And Market Implications

• After The Earthquake
  • Our Initial Thoughts

• CHART: FURTHER WEAKNESS IN STORE
• Japan - Real GDP Growth (LHS) & Current Account (RHS)

• CHART: STILL FAVOURING A WEAKER YEN
• Japan - Exchange Rate, JPY/US$ & Weekly RSI

• Market Implications

• CHART: TOPIX TOPS OUT
• Japan - Topix (LHS) & Daily Sector Performance (RHS)

• CHART: GOOD NEAR-TERM TECHNICALS
• Japan - 10-Year JGB, % Yield

Industrial Implications

• Construction Outperforms
  • Equities Nose-Dive

• CHART: INDUSTRY SUFFERS, BUT INSURANCE IS HARDEST HIT
• TOPIX - Daily Performance of Sector Indices - 14 March 2011

• Domestic Expectations

• CHART: ANOTHER BLOW FOR EUROPEAN INSURANCE
• S&P Insurance Index and Selected European Insurers (rebased to 03/01/2011)

• CHART: THE IMPORTANCE OF DIVERSIFICATION
• Selected Australian Uranium Producers (rebased to 04/01/2011)

• Global Sector-Specific Implications

Infrastructure Outlook

• Reconstruction To Revive Dormant Industry
  • Fiscal Situation Problematic

• CHART: REVISED EXPECTATIONS
• Japanese Construction Industry Value Real Growth (%) Forecasts

• CHART: SILVER LINING?
• TOPIX Construction Index Vs Nikkei and S&P Japan 500 Industrials Index

• CHART: RECONSTRUCTION ESTIMATES BOOST CONSTRUCTION STOCKS
• Japanese Construction Equities, JPY, Tokyo Stock Exchange

• CHART: SHORT TERM BOOST, LONG TERM QUESTION-MARKS
• Japan Infrastructure, Residential and Non-Residential Construction Industry Value Forecasts

Automotive Outlook

• Production Loss Looms
  • Suppliers In North Hit Worst By Disaster

Shipping Outlook

• Quake Devastates Japan' s Shipping Sector
  • Reconstruction Offers Upside Potential

• CHART: LONG TERM UPSIDE POTENTIAL
• Port of Nagoya throughput, tonnes ‘000

• Six Seaports Out Of Operation For Months
• Japanese Shipping Lines See Stocks Nosedive

• CHART: QUAKE DRIVES PRICES DOWN
• MOL stock prices, 3 months

Oil & Gas Outlook

• LNG Imports To Rise
  • Tsunami Hits Energy Infrastructure

• CHART: MORE LNG NEEDED
• Japan' s 2009 LNG Imports By Country (bcm)

• Biggest Earthquake On Record

• CHART: BACK TO BLACK?
• TEPCO Power Generation, By Capacity, mn kW

• Energy Market Impacts

• CHART: UPSIDE RISKS
• Japan' s Oil Consumption, Refining Capacity And Product Exports

• Emergency Operations

Agricultural Outlook

• Short-Term Import Slowdown
  • Medium Term Demand To Hold Up

• CHART: AFF ECTING AGRICULTURE
• Japan - Agriculture Map & Tohoku Earthquake Epicentre

• Short-Term Impact: Lower Imports, Higher Prices
• Assessing The Damage

• CHART: AGRICULTURE SUFF ERING THE MOST
• TOPIX - Performance of Sector Indices (March 11-16, 2011)

• Negative Short-Term Impact On Global Markets
• Medium Term Impact: More Imports Of Meat, Key Grains

• CHART: HITTING THE GRAINS
• Normalised Grains Spot Prices

• Long Term Impact: Fall In Agriculture Productivity, Demand Destruction

• TABLE: JAPAN - THE BIG FOOD IMPORTER
• AGRICULTURE PRODUCTS: CORN, PORK, CHEESE, BEEF, BARLEY, POULTRY, WHEAT, SOYBEAN, RICE

• CHART: MORE GRAINS, LESS MEAT IN FUTURE?
• Japan - Income Elasticity of Selected Agriculture Products

• Risks To Outlook

Global Nuclear Power Outlook

• Fukushima Nuclear Meltdown
  • Questions On Its Legacy

• CHART: SENTIMENT CHANGES AGAINST NUCLEAR NEW BUILDS
• Number of nuclear reactors under construction

• CHART: REACTING TO JAPAN
• Global Utilities Indices/ Utitility Stock Prices Normalised as of March 1st 2011

• CHART: FURTHER DOWNSIDE UNTIL THE LEAK IS CONTAINED
• Japanese Utilities Companies Stock Prices, Normalised As of March 1st 2011

Asia Development Aid Outlook

• Japanese FDI For Infrastructure In Jeopardy?
  • Major Projects Could Be Hit

• CHART: EARTHQUAKE LIKELY TO WEIGH DOWN FDI
• Japan' s FDI Outflows Into Asia, 2010 Provisional, US$mn

• TABLE: MAJOR CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS IN ASIA INVOLVING JAPAN
• COUNTRY: BANGLADESH, INDIA, INDONESIA, THAILAND, VIETNAM

Australia Economic Outlook

• Iron Ore And Coking Coal Shipments To Suffer
  • Recovery Expected In 2012
  • Silver Lining Seen In Natural Gas, Thermal Coal

• CHART: A MIXED BAG
• Australia - Exports To Japan By Product, % Of Total Exports To Japan

• Reconstruction To Further Improve Trade In 2012

Indonesia Economic Outlook

• Implications Of Japanese Earthquake
  • FD1 To Take A Hit

• CHART: ALL ABOUT COMMODITIES
• Indonesia - Breakdown Of Exports To Japan, % Total Exports To Japan

• Japanese Demand: Impact Only Temporary

• CHART: LOSING A BIG INVESTMENT SUPPORTER?
• Indonesia - Foreign Direct Investment, US$mn

• FDI: Tempering Expectations For 2011

Philippines Economic Outlook

• Reverberations Of The Japan Quake
  • Aid And Trade To Suffer

• CHART: NON-ESSENTIAL GOODS DEMAND TO TAKE A HIT
• Philippines - Breakdown Of Philippine Exports To Japan, % Of Total Exports To Japan

• Exports: Slowed By Japan

• CHART: FDI FROM JAPAN MAY DROP
• Philippines - Breakdown Of 2010 Inward FDI, %

• Losing Japan' s Financial Might

Press Release

關於Global Information, Inc.對東北關東大地震受災者的支援

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