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市場調查報告書

多晶矽市場展望:∼2020年

The Polysilicon Market Outlook 2020

出版商 Bernreuter Research 商品編碼 388256
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 70 Pages
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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多晶矽市場展望:∼2020年 The Polysilicon Market Outlook 2020
出版日期: 2016年11月24日 內容資訊: 英文 70 Pages
簡介

本報告針對世界多晶矽市場展望調查、提供FBR技術開發停滯狀況、生產能力變化、需求量、供應量動向與供需平衡預測、中國商務部反傾銷稅背景、價格變化與預測、影響因素。

第1章 技術:FBR的沈靜化

  • Sunedison:FBR計畫失敗的理由
  • GCL-Poly:在測試階段停滯
  • 根本上的問題與代替方法

第2章 生產能力:供應過剩

  • 中國對自家多晶矽產業的保護
  • 中國以外的倒閉工廠、中止計畫
  • Hemlock Semiconductor:詳細的策略
  • UMG矽技術小規模復活

第3章 供應:世界情形

  • 中國市場佔有率大幅擴大
  • 可能被淘汰的候補
  • 整體徵兆
  • 電子級多晶矽的供應、規格

第4章 需求:市場展望

  • 半導體產業需求
  • PV產業需求
    • 世界PV安裝數量變化
    • 分析師預測的整合分析
    • 由下而上的分析:安裝預測
      • 中國
      • 日本
      • 印度
      • 亞太地區其他國家
        • 澳洲
        • 韓國
        • 泰國
        • 菲律賓
        • 巴基斯坦
      • 美國
      • 加拿大
      • 拉丁美洲
        • 墨西哥
        • 智利
        • 巴西
      • 歐洲
        • 英國
        • 德國
        • 法國
        • 荷蘭
        • 義大利
        • 土耳其
      • 中東、非洲
    • 驗證試驗:與其他PV安裝比較
    • 廣泛的展望:與其他3種產業相互比較
    • 多晶矽與太陽能電池製造的時差
    • 特定矽消費相關感度

第5章 供需平衡:需求與供應展望

  • 供應情形1
  • 供應情形2、3、4
  • 週期模式:變動性擴大
  • 未來展望:風雨後的短暫平靜

第6章 關稅:中國長城與漏洞

  • 處罰性關稅的報復
  • 加工貿易漏洞
  • 美國製多晶矽的中國進口

第7章 價格:深谷

  • 價格短期的回復
  • 過多的生產使價格下滑
  • 階段性下落預測

第8章 總結:為疲軟做好準備

附錄

目錄

Overview

Do you want to be up to date on the polysilicon industry? On the most recent technological developments, the decisive market trends and future price points? The Polysilicon Market Outlook 2020 provides you with all of that.

The 70-page report analyzes hundreds of data and details, presents them in a clear and compact form, and draws insightful conclusions to help you make the best strategic decisions. It covers incumbent manufacturers, new entrants and aspirants from:

  • the USA
  • Europe
  • Japan
  • South Korea
  • China
  • Taiwan
  • the Arabian Peninsula.

With individual production data on 45 manufacturers and aspirants, in-depth analysis of demand, elaborate supply/demand scenarios, precise forecasts on polysilicon prices and cash production costs through 2020 as well as the latest development of fluidized bed reactor technology, The Polysilicon Market Outlook 2020 provides comprehensive, detailed and up-to-date information on the global market for solar-grade and electronic-grade polysilicon.

The report is an ideal market guide for polysilicon, solar and semiconductor companies, equipment suppliers and engineering firms, investors, analysts and researchers alike.

Polysilicon market outlook with unique details

  • The technology chapter analyzes why fluidized bed reactor (FBR) technology for producing polysilicon granules has recently experienced some setbacks. It explores fundamental technical challenges and an alternative approach.
  • The capacity chapter provides a concise overview of plant shutdowns, capacity expansions and greenfield projects. A comprehensive table lists all capacity additions and changes between 2014 and 2019.
  • The supply chapter presents four different scenarios of production volumes and end-of-year capacities for 45 polysilicon and UMG silicon plants and projects from 2013 through 2020. It highlights the market shares of the top ten manufacturers, points out China's growing weight among the world's polysilicon production regions, and reveals first signs of industry consolidation. The chapter also details the production volumes of electronic-grade polysilicon for each manufacturer and explains purity specifications for electronic grade.
  • The demand chapter quantifies the polysilicon demand of the semiconduc-tor and photovoltaic (PV) industries from 2013 through 2020. It uses an improved bottom-up approach, based on numerous data and forecasts for 84 countries, in order to arrive at three different scenarios of global PV demand. The 20 most important countries and regions have been portrayed individually.
  • The balance chapter compares the various demand scenarios with supply, explains consequences from the supply/demand balance for market participants, and discusses changes in the cyclical pattern of the polysilicon industry. In addition, the chapter gives an outlook on the market development through 2022.
  • The duty chapter provides background on the anti-dumping measures of the Chinese Ministry of Commerce and uses data from customs statistics to assess the effect of Chinese anti-dumping duties on polysilicon imports.
  • The price chapter examines the factors that have influenced the polysilicon spot price since 2014 and, in particular, dissects the reasons behind the price rally in the spring of 2016. Based on a diligent analysis of industry cost curves, the chapter forecasts the development of the spot price through 2020. It also provides data on cash production costs of 34 polysilicon plants from 2015 through 2020.
  • A directory of 86 web sites from manufacturers, aspirants, equipment suppliers and engineering firms supplements the polysilicon market report.

About the Author

Johannes Bernreuter, 51, head of Bernreuter Research and author of the report. Bernreuter has become one of the most reputable photovoltaic journalists in Germany because of his diligent research, clear style and unbiased approach. He has earned several awards, among others the prestigious RWTH Prize for Scientific Journalism from the RWTH Aachen University, one of the eleven elite universities in Germany. Originally an associate editor at the monthly photovoltaic magazine Photon, Bernreuter authored his first analysis of the upcoming polysilicon bottleneck and alternative production processes as early as 2001. In 2008 he founded Bernreuter Research to publish polysilicon market reports.

Table of Contents

  • Imprint
  • Executive Summary
  • List of Tables and Figures
  • Companies covered
  • Abbreviations, Chemical formulae, Silicon grades, Exchange rates

1. Technology: Fading of the FBR Hype

  • Why Sunedison's FBR project has failed
  • GCL-Poly stuck at pilot stage
  • Fundamental problems and an alternative approach

2. Capacities: Oversupply Reloaded

  • China protects its polysilicon industry
  • Closed plants and canceled projects outside China
  • Hemlock Semiconductor's rigorous strategy
  • Small revival of UMG silicon technology

3. Supply: Global Scenarios through 2020

  • China's market share is rising strongly
  • Twelve potential shakeout candidates
  • First signs of consolidation
  • Supply and specifications of electronic-grade polysilicon

4. Demand: Market Perspectives through 2020

  • 4.1. Demand from the semiconductor industry
  • 4.2. Demand from the photovoltaic industry
    • Analysis of global PV installations 2003 - 2015
    • Meta-analysis of analyst forecasts
    • Extrapolation from the guidance of major module producers
    • Bottom-up approach: Installation scenarios 2016 - 2020
      • China
      • Japan
      • India
      • Asia-Pacific: Australia - South Korea - Thailand - The Philippines - Pakistan
      • USA
      • Canada
      • Latin America: Mexico - Chile - Brazil
      • Europe: United Kingdom - Germany - France - The Netherlands - Italy - Turkey
      • Middle East & Africa (MEA)
    • Plausibility test: Comparison with other PV installation scenarios
    • A wider perspective: Cross-comparison with three other industries
    • From installation to production volumes
    • Time lag between polysilicon and solar cell production
    • Sensitivity to specific silicon consumption

5. Balance: Supply and Demand through 2022

  • Supply Scenario 1 (unconfined)
  • Supply Scenarios 2, 3 and 4 (high, base and low case)
  • Cyclical pattern: Increasing volatility
  • Outlook through 2022: Little sunshine after the thunderstorm

6. Duties: Chinese Wall with Loopholes

  • Tit for tat rulings on punitive duties
  • The big loophole offered by processing trade
  • One loophole closed, others still open
  • US-made polysilicon effectively shut out of China

7. Prices: Valley's Deep and the Peak Far Away

  • 2014: Short-lived price recovery
  • 2015: Overproduction sends the spot price south
  • First half of 2016: Reasons behind the spring rally
  • 2016 - 2020: Steadily falling price trend

8. Conclusion: Preparing for Soft Demand

Appendix: Directory of Company Web Sites

  • A. Manufacturers and aspirants
  • B. CVD reactor suppliers
  • C. Providers of reactor power supply systems
  • D. Hydrochlorination technology providers
  • E. Other technology providers/consultants
  • F. Engineering, procurement & construction firms
  • About the author

List of Tables and Figures

1. Technology: Fading of the FBR Hype

  • FBR market share projections of ITRPV and Bernreuter Research for 2015 - 2026

2. Capacities: Oversupply Reloaded

  • Global polysilicon capacity expansion 2014 - 2019

3. Supply: Global Scenarios through 2020

  • Classification of polysilicon manufacturer tiers
  • Silicon production by region (in MT) 2013 - 2020 (base case)
  • Scenario 1 (unconfined): Polysilicon production by company and tier (in MT) 2013 - 2020
  • Scenario 2 (high case): Polysilicon production by company and tier (in MT) 2013 - 2020
  • Scenario 3 (base case): Polysilicon production by company and tier (in MT) 2013 - 2020
  • Scenario 4 (low case): Polysilicon production by company and tier (in MT) 2013 - 2020
  • Top ten polysilicon manufacturers in 2015
  • Top ten polysilicon manufacturers in 2016
  • Top ten polysilicon manufacturers in 2017
  • Top ten polysilicon manufacturers in 2018
  • Top ten polysilicon manufacturers in 2019
  • Top ten polysilicon manufacturers in 2020
  • Potential candidates for shakeout/stranded investment
  • Market shares of the top ten and top four manufacturers 2015 - 2020
  • Company specifications and national standards for high-purity/electronic-grade polysilicon
  • Electronic-grade polysilicon production by company and tier (in MT) 2013 - 2020

4. Demand: Market perspectives through 2020

  • Polysilicon demand from the semiconductor industry
  • Market shares of growth drivers in global PV installations 2003 - 2015
  • PV installation volumes and global growth rates 2003 - 2015
  • Deviation of the analyst forecast average from actual results 2008 - 2015
  • Analyst forecasts for global PV installations in 2016
  • Guidance accuracy of nine major module manufacturers 2008 - 2015
  • Results and guidance of nine major module manufacturers in 2015/2016
  • Market share of nine major module manufacturers 2008 - 2015
  • Sensitivity analysis of guidance extrapolation for 2016
  • 2013 scenario and result (in GW)
  • 2014 scenario and result (in GW)
  • Annual wind power and PV installations in China (in GW)
  • Global PV installations in 2013 - 2015; base-case scenario for 2016 - 2020
  • Installation scenarios of IHS, GTM and Bernreuter Research for 2016 - 2020
  • Regional scenarios of GTM 2015, IHS and Bernreuter Research for 2020
  • Annual growth rates of the semiconductor and PV industries
  • Annual growth rates of the automobile and PV industries
  • Annual growth rates of the automobile industry after 1945
  • Development of annual wind power and PV system installations (in GW)
  • Global cryst. solar cell and thin-film module production volumes (in MW) 2004 - 2015
  • Ratio between global cell/module production and PV system installation volumes
  • Scenarios of crystalline silicon cell production volumes (in GW) 2016 - 2020
  • Polysilicon shipment periods (in weeks)
  • Breakdown of time lag between polysilicon and cell production (in weeks)
  • Specific silicon consumption of cell production (in g/W) 2012 - 2021
  • Share of first quarter in full year cell/module production/shipment volumes
  • Polysilicon consumption/demand of the PV industry (in 1,000 MT) 2013 - 2015
  • Scenarios of the PV industry's polysilicon consumption/demand (in 1,000 MT) 2016 - 2020
  • Scenario variants of specific silicon consumption (in g/W) 2016 - 2021
  • Scenario variants of polysilicon demand (in 1,000 MT) 2016 - 2020
  • Details of the scenario for specific silicon consumption 2014 - 2021

5. Balance: Supply and Demand through 2022

  • Demand of the PV and semiconductor industries (in 1,000 MT) 2013 - 2015
  • Scenarios for the demand of the PV and semiconductor industries (in 1,000 MT) 2016 - 2020
  • Balance of silicon supply and demand (in 1,000 MT) 2010 - 2015
  • Unconfined silicon supply by tiers (Scenario 1) and demand scenarios 2013 - 2020
  • Scenarios of the supply/demand balance with unconfined supply (in 1,000 MT) 2016 - 2020
  • Market-clearing demand variants 2016 - 2020 (Supply Scenario 1)
  • PV installations in the base, high-case and market-clearing demand scenarios 2016 - 2020
  • Silicon supply by tiers (Scenario 3, base case) and demand 2013 - 2020
  • Scenarios of the silicon supply/demand balance (low, base and high case) 2016 - 2020
  • Intervals between contract price peaks and troughs 1977 - 2015
  • Preliminary scenario of supply/demand balance 2020 - 2022

6. Duties: Chinese Wall with Loopholes

  • Duty rates for imports from the USA, South Korea and the EU into China
  • Annual import volumes into China from main importers 2010 - 2015
  • Shares of processing trade and main importers in imports 2013 - Q2 2016

7. Prices: Valley's Deep and the Peak Far Away

  • Expansion of Chinese wafer production capacities (in GW) in 2015 and 2016
  • Development of the polysilicon spot and contract prices in 2014
  • Development of the polysilicon spot and contract prices in 2015
  • Monthly polysilicon supply in China from January 2015 through May 2016
  • Development of the polysilicon spot prices in and outside China in 2016
  • Jiangsu Zhongneng's external polysilicon shipments Q1 2014 - Q2 2016
  • Solar-grade polysilicon industry cost curves 2015 - 2017 (base-case scenario)
  • Solar-grade polysilicon industry cost curves 2018 - 2020 (base-case scenario)
  • Scenarios of the year-end polysilicon spot price (in $/kg) 2016 - 2020
  • Exchange rates for US$1 in 2013 and from January through October 2016
  • Cash costs of polysilicon manufacturers (in $/kg) 2015 - 2020 (base case)

Companies covered

USA

  • Hemlock Semiconductor
  • REC Silicon
  • MEMC Pasadena
  • Mitsubishi Polysilicon America
  • Wacker Polysilicon North America

Germany

  • Wacker Chemie
  • Silicon Products Bitterfeld
  • Sitec

Japan

  • Tokuyama
  • Osaka Titanium technologies
  • Mitsubishi Materials
  • M.Setek

South Korea

  • OCI Company
  • Hankook Silicon
  • Hanwha Chemical
  • SMP

Ukraine

  • Semiconductor Plant

Arabian Peninsula

  • Polysilicon Technology Company
  • Qatar Solar Technologies

China

  • Jiangsu Zhongneng (GCL)
  • Xinte Energy (TBEA)
  • Luoyang China Silicon
  • Sichuan Yongxiang
  • Xinjiang Daqo
  • Asia Silicon
  • LDK PV Silicon
  • Inner Mongolia Dunan
  • Yichang CSG
  • Inner Mongolia Shenzhou
  • Sichuan Renesola
  • Guodian Jingyang
  • Kunming Yeyan
  • Inner Mongolia Fengwei
  • Qinghai Huanghe Hydropower
  • Shaanxi Tianhong
  • Xinjiang Hejing
  • Hubei Jingxing
  • Zhejiang Zhongning
  • Shaanxi Non-ferrous Tianhong REC
  • Xinjiang Dongming
  • Erdos Polysilicon
  • Jiangsu Xinhua Semiconductor (GCL)

Taiwan

  • Taiwan Polysilicon
  • Powertec Energy

UMG silicon manufacturers

  • Elkem Solar
  • Jaco Solarsi
  • Ferroatlántica
  • Silicor Materials
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