Abstract
REPORT HIGHLIGHTS
The U.S. Merchant hydrogen market was $3.4 billion in 2011, a value expected
to increase to $3.9 billion by the end of 2016, a compound annual growth rate
(CAGR) of 2.4%.
There are 1,200 miles of pipelines carrying hydrogen in the U.S. Pipeline
modernization, upgrades, and expansions are a significant area of investment.
Other than the space shuttle program, uses of hydrogen for transportation are
still limited. In the U.S., there are currently only 150 fuel cell vehicles,
15 active fuel cell buses, and about 50 hydrogen fueling stations.
REPORT SCOPE
INTRODUCTION
OVERVIEW
The purpose of this report is to measure and forecast the demand for hydrogen
that is sold as a commodity for end-uses that range from petroleum refining to
energy production. This commodity sale and use of hydrogen is informally
referred to as the " merchant hydrogen market." The remainder of the
hydrogen market is referred to as the " captive" segment. The report defines
individual markets and technical applications for hydrogen. In regard to
cutting-edge developments, areas such as biological processing, localized
production, and nanotechnology, where considerable research dollars have been
expended, are covered.
Hydrogen is a colorless and odorless gas and is almost insoluble in water.
The element was discovered by the English scientist Henry Cavendish in 1766.
In the laboratory hydrogen is produced by electrolysis of water or by action
of diluted acids on zinc or iron. Commercially, it is typically produced in a
two-step process, wherein in the first step carbon monoxide and hydrogen are
produced by combustion of natural gas with steam, and in the second step
carbon monoxide is converted to carbon dioxide by the water-gas reaction and
then the carbon dioxide is removed by washing. This report discusses many
alternative methods for hydrogen production, most of which are relevant to the
merchant market.
Among the key trends in the merchant hydrogen business is the drive to develop
small-scale distributed production facilities and to perfect end-use devices
and technologies such as hydrogen-powered fuel cells. In many cases, these
efforts are more strenuous in overseas markets in comparison to the U.S. In
fact, there have been significant cutbacks in government funding for
hydrogen-related research in the U.S., as the Obama Administration has
de-emphasized hydrogen-powered fuel cell vehicles in favor of electric and
hybrid vehicle development.
STILL THE FUEL OF THE FUTURE
Hydrogen has been considered to be the " fuel of the future" for quite
literally decades due to its abundance as an element and its nonpolluting
combustion products. Although 75% of the elemental matter of the entire
Universe is hydrogen, most hydrogen is bound up in compounds such as methane
or water or more complex sources such as coal, and thus energy is required to
break the hydrogen free from these compounds. Additional energy is required
to purify, compress, and/or liquefy the hydrogen for storage and
transportation to usage points. This energy input, as well as technical
issues related to storage and transport, is what prevents widespread
utilization of hydrogen. Widespread production, distribution, and use of
hydrogen will require many innovations and investments to be made in efficient
and environmentally acceptable production systems, transportation systems,
storage systems, and usage devices, particularly fuel cells. In the U.S.,
virtually all hydrogen is made from natural gas, giving rise to significant
quantities of unwanted and undesirable carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. In
particular, steam methane reforming of natural gas produces about 12 kilograms
of carbon dioxide equivalent per kg of hydrogen produced.
Hydrogen is primarily used in petroleum refining and as a chemical
intermediate, particularly in the manufacture of agricultural fertilizers.
Hydrogen is inconsequential as a fuel source in transportation, and numerous
technical and economic barriers still exist to widespread deployment of either
hydrogen-powered engines in vehicles or fuel cell-powered vehicles that use
stored hydrogen.
Despite the unfavorable economics for uses of hydrogen other than refining and
as a chemical intermediate, interest in it has always remained strong because
hydrogen in transportation would not directly generate greenhouse gases. And
if the hydrogen can be obtained via " renewable" resources such as wind or
solar power or even biological processing, it would truly be emission-free.
The cheapest way to produce hydrogen is natural gas reforming or coal
gasification at a central plant. Hydrogen, particularly high purity hydrogen,
can be obtained indirectly from electricity via water electrolysis, a usually
costly process due to the high energy input. Because all current processes to
produce hydrogen generate significant amounts of CO2 emissions, large-scale
hydrogen production from natural gas and coal would be environmentally
acceptable only if combined with carbon capture and storage technologies.
During, and in many cases beyond, the forecast period of this report, some
essential technologies that could be deployed to produce hydrogen include
fossil sources with carbon sequestration (coal and natural gas), renewable
energy sources (solar, wind, and hydroelectric), biological methods (biomass
and biological), and nuclear energy.
SCOPE OF STUDY
This BCC study focuses on key hydrogen technologies and applications. It
provides data about the size and growth of both captive and merchant hydrogen
markets, company profiles, patent trends, and industry trends. Cutting-edge
developments, research priorities, and potential business opportunities are a
key focus.
The report focuses on these key areas:
- Investigation and assessment of the future use of merchant hydrogen and
on-site distributed generation
- Analysis of trends in the market, with data for 2010, estimates for 2011,
and projected compound annual growth rates (CAGRs) through 2016
- An overview of the structure of the industry and extensive company
profiles of the leading organizations
- Detailed analyses of research focuses, end-use markets, and production
technologies
- Patent and intellectual property (IP) activity
INTENDED AUDIENCE
With its broad scope and in-depth analyses, this study will prove to be a
valuable resource, particularly for anyone involved with or interested in
hydrogen production and utilization. It will be particularly useful for
researchers and laboratory and government personnel working in research or
company settings, as well as business professionals such as marketing
managers, strategic planners, forecasters, and new product and business
developers who are involved with most aspects of the hydrogen industry. It
also will be of value to potential investors and members of the general public
who are interested in acquiring a business-oriented view of the use of
hydrogen in practical applications. The projections, forecasts, and trend
analyses found in this report provide readers with the necessary data and
information for decision making.
METHODOLOGY
Both primary and secondary research methodologies were used in preparing this
study. Research methodology was both quantitative and qualitative in nature,
the latter relying on Delphi-style forecasting techniques. Initially, a
comprehensive and exhaustive search of academic literature discussing hydrogen
applications was conducted. These secondary sources include hydrogen and fuel
cell journals and related books, trade literature, marketing literature, other
product/promotional literature, annual reports, security analyst reports, and
other publications. A patent search and analysis was conducted. Other
sources include magazines, academics, technology suppliers, technical experts,
trade association officials, government officials, and consulting companies.
INFORMATION SOURCES
As is the case with most industries and economic sectors, data resources
analyzing the applications and markets for hydrogen have become vast. There
are numerous peer-reviewed, referred journals devoted solely to hydrogen
technology, not to mention environmental journals that report on larger
systems issues or strategic/economic issues in environmental management. The
number of companies involved in this business is particularly large as many
are in the developmental stage and thus account for only a tiny portion of
industry revenues.
Data sources that were employed include press releases on company websites
covering application news, company news, marketing news, and product news as
well as brochures, product literature, magazines, technical journals,
technical books, marketing and other promotional literature, annual reports,
security analyst reports, and other hydrogen-specific business digest
publications. An extensive patent analysis was conducted to gauge
technological innovation and to determine research activity as it applies to
new product development.
ANALYST'S CREDENTIALS
The author of this report, Project Analyst Kevin Gainer, holds B.A. and M.A.
degrees in quantitative economic analysis and technology forecasting and has
more than 25 years of economic, industry intelligence, and market research
experience. He is the author of six published books and dozens of technical
papers, analyses, and studies published in conference proceedings, including
many unpublished proprietary analyses within corporations. He has worked as a
Research Editor and Project Analyst at BCC Research since 1985, and has
authored numerous BCC technology market research reports and periodicals.
Table of Contents
Chapter- 1: INTRODUCTION - Complimentary
- OVERVIEW
- STILL THE FUEL OF THE FUTURE
- SCOPE OF STUDY
- INTENDED AUDIENCE
- METHODOLOGY
- INFORMATION SOURCES
- ANALYST'S CREDENTIALS
- RELATED BCC PUBLICATIONS
- BCC ON-LINE SERVICES
- DISCLAIMER
Chapter- 2: SUMMARY
- MAJOR FINDINGS
- Table 0 : THE U.S. MERCHANT HYDROGEN MARKET, THROUGH 2016
- Figure 0 : THE U.S. MERCHANT HYDROGEN MARKET, 2010-2016
Chapter- 3: HYDROGEN OVERVIEW
- HISTORICAL CONTEXT
- WORLD PRODUCTION OF HYDROGEN
- CONSUMERS AND PRODUCERS OF MERCHANT HYDROGEN
- HYDROGEN PRODUCTION CAPACITY AT REFINERIES
- PLANT CAPITAL COSTS
- HYDROGEN ECONOMY
- INVESTMENT RISK
- MARKET DEMAND
- CURRENT HYDROGEN PRODUCTION LEVELS
- NATURAL GAS AND HYDROGEN
- HYDROGEN COST/BENEFIT EQUATION IN SPECIFIC APPLICATIONS
- ENVIRONMENTAL PROFILE OF HYDROGEN
- REGULATIONS, CODES, AND STANDARDS
- FEDERAL R&D RELATING TO HYDROGEN
- SUBSIDIES AND TAXES
- STATE LEVEL INITIATIVES
Chapter- 4: MERCHANT HYDROGEN MARKET
- DEMAND FOR MERCHANT HYDROGEN
- MERCHANT MARKET DELIVERY MODES
- HIGH PURITY HYDROGEN MARKET AND ON-SITE DEMAND
- LOCATION OF THE MERCHANT PLANTS
- LOCATION OF THE HYDROGEN REFINERY CAPACITY
- MERCHANT HYDROGEN EQUIPMENT MARKETS
Chapter- 5: MERCHANT HYDROGEN: THE END-USE MARKETS
- OVERVIEW
- FOOD INDUSTRY/EDIBLE OIL
- CHEMICAL INDUSTRY
- STEEL INDUSTRY/METALLURGY
- ELECTRONICS INDUSTRY
- EPITAXY MANUFACTURING
- GLASS PROCESSING INDUSTRY
- RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT USES OF MERCHANT HYDROGEN
- POWER INDUSTRY
- FUEL AND TRANSPORTATION MARKETS
- LARGE- SCALE HYDROGEN-POWERED GENERATING PLANTS
- Table 14 : POWER PLANT CAPITAL AND OPERATING COSTS: FUEL CELLS VERSUS
CONVENTIONAL OPTIONS, 2010
Chapter- 6: MERCHANT HYDROGEN: THE TECHNOLOGY FOCUS
- HOW RENEWABLE POWER RELATES TO MERCHANT HYDROGEN
- HOW STATIONARY POWER RELATES TO MERCHANT HYDROGEN
Chapter- 7: HYDROGEN PRODUCTION PROCESSES
- OVERVIEW
- HYDROGEN PRODUCTION - CAPTIVE VERSUS MERCHANT
- HYDROGEN PRODUCTION - SMALL-SCALE MERCHANT VERSUS LARGE-SCALE
- CURRENT STATUS OF ALL HYDROGEN PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGIES
- HYDROGEN VIA WASTEWATER REMEDIATION
- BYPRODUCT HYDROGEN
- LIQUEFACTION VERSUS GASIFICATION
- CATALYSTS
Chapter- 8: HYDROGEN STORAGE MARKET
- STORAGE UNDERPINS MERCHANT MARKET
- SIZE OF STORAGE MARKET
- OVERVIEW OF STORAGE TECHNOLOGY ISSUES
- STORAGE AND TRANSPORTATION
- DELIVERY
- RESEARCH EFFORTS
- HYDROGEN DELIVERY INFRASTRUCTURE ISSUES
- OTHER RESEARCH PRIORITIES
- METAL ORGANIC FRAMEWORK OPTIMIZED FOR HYDROGEN STORAGE
- COMPRESSIONLESS RETAIL HYDROGEN FUELING STATIONS
- POLYMER-BASED HYDROGEN STORAGE
- ALUMINUM HYDRIDE, A HIGH-CAPACITY HYDROGEN STORAGE MATERIAL
- METAL HYDRIDE CLUSTERS
- ACTIVATED CARBON STORAGE
- HYDROTHERMOLYSIS
- NANOBLADES
- LAYERED GRAPHENE SHEETS
- APPLIED ELECTRIC FIELDS
- STABLE LIQUID STORES HYDROGEN
- RECENT DOE HYDROGEN STORAGE RESEARCH GRANTS
Chapter- 9: INDUSTRY STRUCTURE AND COMPANY PROFILES
- MARKET CONCENTRATION
- PIPELINE MARKET SHARES
- ECONOMICS OF PIPELINE TRANSPORT
- RECENT MAJOR PIPELINE ADDITIONS
- COMPANY PROFILES
Chapter- 10: THE OVERSEAS SITUATION
- WORLD HYDROGEN MARKET OVERVIEW
- EUROPEAN MARKET SHARES
- EUROPEAN PIPELINE BUSINESS
- OTHER PRINCIPAL MARKETS - CHINA
- SUMMARY: WORLDWIDE HYDROGEN PRODUCTION CAPACITY AT REFINERIES
- Table 26 : WORLD RANKING OF HYDROGEN PRODUCTION CAPACITY AT REFINERIES,
RANKED BY CAPACITY, THROUGH 2009
- Table 27 : WORLD RANKINGS OF HYDROGEN PRODUCTION CAPACITY AT REFINERIES,
RANKED BY GROWTH RATE, THROUGH 2009
Chapter- 11: PATENT ANALYSIS
- HYDROGEN PRODUCTION, STORAGE, AND UTILIZATION
- FUEL CELL SPECIFIC PATENTS
- SAMPLE PATENTS
Chapter- 12: APPENDIX: HYDROGEN GLOSSARY AND ACRONYMS
List of Tables
- Summary Table : THE U.S. MERCHANT HYDROGEN MARKET, THROUGH 2016
- Table 1 : FUEL FLEXIBILITY OF HYDROGEN PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGIES
- Table 2 : GLOBAL HYDROGEN PRODUCTION BY RAW MATERIAL, 2010
- Table 3 : U.S. FUEL CELL BUS PROJECTS, 2011
- Table 4 : MANUFACTURING R&D CHALLENGES FOR DISTRIBUTED HYDROGEN PRODUCTION
- Table 5 : PRODUCTION CAPACITY OF OPERABLE PETROLEUM REFINERIES, HYDROGEN,
AND OTHER PRODUCTS
- Table 6 : HYDROGEN PRODUCTION DATA, 2005-2009
- Table 7 : HYDROGEN AND FUEL CELL BUDGET, 2004-2011
- Table 8 : FUNDING FOR THE HYDROGEN FUEL INITIATIVE, FISCAL YEARS 2004
THROUGH 2008
- Table 9 : U.S. MERCHANT HYDROGEN PRODUCTION, THROUGH 2016
- Table 10 : MERCHANT MARKET DELIVERY MODES, 2010
- Table 11 : MERCHANT LIQUID AND COMPRESSED GAS HYDROGEN PRODUCTION CAPACITY
IN THE U.S. AND CANADA BY COMPANY AND LOCATION, 2011
- Table 12 : U.S. REFINERY HYDROGEN PRODUCTION CAPACITY BY STATE, 2010
- Table 13 : REFINERY HYDROGEN PRODUCTION CAPACITY BY INDIVIDUAL REFINERY,
2000-2009
- Table 14 : POWER PLANT CAPITAL AND OPERATING COSTS: FUEL CELLS VERSUS
CONVENTIONAL OPTIONS, 2010
- Table 15 : USING RENEWABLE POWER TO PRODUCE HYDROGEN PROJECT CATEGORIES
- Table 16 : RENEWABLES-BASED HYDROGEN PRODUCTION PROJECTS
- Table 17 : TOP U.S. REFINERY HYDROGEN PRODUCERS BASED ON CAPACITY, 2010
- Table 18 : U.S. HYDROGEN PIPELINE MILES BY STATE, 2009
- Table 19 : U.S. HYDROGEN PIPELINE MILES BY OWNER, 2010
- Table 20 : EUROPEAN HYDROGEN PIPELINE MILES BY OWNER, 2009
- Table 21 : HYDROGEN PRODUCTION IN EUROPE, 1997-2007
- Table 22 : FORECAST HYDROGEN PRODUCTION IN EUROPE, THROUGH 2015
- Table 23 : MERCHANT LIQUID AND COMPRESSED GAS HYDROGEN PRODUCTION CAPACITY
IN EUROPE, BY COMPANY AND LOCATION, 2009
- Table 24 : EUROPEAN HYDROGEN PIPELINE MILES BY COUNTRY, 2009
- Table 25 : CONSUMPTION OF HYDROGEN IN CHINA BY END-USER INDUSTRY
- Table 26 : WORLD RANKING OF HYDROGEN PRODUCTION CAPACITY AT REFINERIES,
RANKED BY CAPACITY, THROUGH 2009
- Table 27 : WORLD RANKINGS OF HYDROGEN PRODUCTION CAPACITY AT REFINERIES,
RANKED BY GROWTH RATE, THROUGH 2009
- Table 28 : SAMPLE OF 150 HYDROGEN PATENTS BASED ON MAJOR FIELD OF
APPLICATION, OCTOBER 2010 - OCTOBER 2011
List of Figures
- Summary Figure : THE U.S. MERCHANT HYDROGEN MARKET, 2010-2016
