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市場調查報告書
無線寬頻市場：市場預測（2008年至2015年）：HSPA・HSPA+・EV-DO・LTE・WiMAX
Wireless broadband forecasts for 2008-2015: HSPA, HSPA+, EV-DO, LTE and WiMAX
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無線寬頻市場：市場預測（2008年至2015年）：HSPA・HSPA+・EV-DO・LTE・WiMAX 是由出版商Analysys Mason在2008年07月所出版的。
這份英文市場調查報告書價格從美金3596起跳。
本報告書內容包括：全球無線寬頻市場的技術類型別調查分析、產業發展動向、市場發展刺激因素及阻礙因素、技術・企業競爭環 境、使用者基礎・收益預測（至2015年）先進地區・新興地區分析等。內容綱要摘記如下：
- 實施概要
- 無線寬頻總體市場
- 利用各種技術的無線寬頻
- 高度無線寬頻服務利用率：2008年的7,000萬使用者到了2015年將發展為21億
- 行動電話技術成為支援無線寬頻用戶的主流技術
- 本公司預測的參考基礎為無線寬頻利用率的成長
- 新興地域的行動電話利用顧客將從2008年的35億人成長為2015年的50億人
- 無線寬頻服務的需求及對高品質通訊的要求增加
- 通訊容量增加及高效率化等因素促進MNO朝先進技術發展
- 無線寬頻產生的年度收益：2015年將佔服務收益總額的58%
- 2015年幾乎所有的無線寬頻用戶都將來自於服務收益低的新興地區
- HSPA・HSPA+
- HSPA網路已經廣泛普及
- HSPA/HSPA+成為無線寬頻服務的主流：2015年之前全球客戶人數將達11億人
- HSPA/HSPA+全球年度服務收益：2014年將達到巔峰的4,100億美元
- 許多HSPA通訊業者都昇級為HSPA+
- 寬頻EV-DO
- EV-DO成為CDMA2000網路的利基：2015年之前客戶人數將達4億400人
- 亞洲先進國家及北美將獨佔EV-DO服務收益：2015年達到1,740億美元的規模
- LTE
- 幾乎所有的MNO都不投資WiMAX，而是將HSPA、HSPA+轉換成LTE
- 在緩慢起步後，LTE的成長速度加快，預計2015年將有4億4,000萬名顧客
- 高度ARPU水準將使2015年的LTE服務收益達到1,940億美元
- 西歐・亞洲先進國家帶動LTE的成長
- 2015年36%的LTE顧客將來自於新興地區
- 新興國家的低ARPU將影響LTE的服務收益
- HSPA+雖是重要的技術，但2015年LTE將擁有更大規模的使用者基礎
- WiMAX
- 先進國家的WiMAX面臨與固定・行動電話寬頻服務的激烈競爭
- 先進國中固定BWA的有限成功將成為WiMAX的課題
- 受到與其他技術競爭的影響，WiMAX全球顧客基礎將為有限的9,800萬人（2015年）
- 新興國將創造70%的WiMAX服務收益（2015年達到130億美元）
- 行動電話寬頻顧客：超過WiMAX 用戶人數及支出金額
- 附錄：無線寬頻技術概要
- 根據行動電話規格的一連串寬頻功能定義
- HSPA・HSPA+：大幅加強UMTS無線界面表現、等
- 圖表
Abstract
“Our report cuts through the hype to quantify the real potential of
wireless broadband technologies over the next seven years, including the
customer numbers and revenue arising from HSPA, HSPA+, EV-DO, LTE and WiMAX in
each region of the world.”
Product overview
New wireless broadband technologies potentially offer operators the ability to
support a broad range of fixed and mobile services. Over 200 HSDPA networks
have already been launched worldwide, and future enhancements, in the form of
HSPA+ and LTE, will further enhance cellular capabilities. WiMAX offers an
alternative means of providing fixed and mobile broadband services,
potentially sooner than LTE. This report provides detailed global forecasts
for wireless broadband subscriber numbers, revenue and ARPU for the period
2008 - 2015. Forecasts are broken down by wireless broadband technology (HSPA,
HSPA+, EV-DO, LTE and WiMAX) and by region (Western Europe, developed Asia,
North America, Eastern Europe, rest of the Americas, rest of Asia and rest of
world). The report quantifies and discusses the relative importance of
cellular technologies and WiMAX, the overlooked opportunities from HSPA and
HSPA+, and the growing opportunities in developing markets.
“Wireless broadband forecasts for 2008 - 2015: HSPA, HSPA+, EV-DO, LTE and
WiMAX” answers your key questions:
- How many customers will broadband wireless technologies, including HSPA,
HSPA+, EV-DO, LTE and WiMAX, attract over the period 2008 - 2015? How much
revenue and ARPU will these technologies bring in?
- What is the current status of the various wireless broadband technologies,
and what will drive their adoption and uptake in each region?
- How will WiMAX compare with cellular broadband technologies, in terms of
take-up and revenue over the next seven years?
- How important will HSPA+ and LTE be for cellular broadband services?
- What will be the regional differences in take-up of wireless broadband
technologies?
- Is there a big opportunity for WiMAX in developed or developing regions?
Who should read this report
- Mobile network operators: Senior executives, technology and network
managers, to understand the likely timings of different wireless technologies
and the economies of scale that will apply to each technology.
- Handset and network equipment vendors: Senior executives and product
managers, to identify the size of the opportunity for wireless broadband
technologies and the mix of technologies that will emerge in different regions.
- Analysts and investors: Senior executives, to understand the relative
importance of different types of broadband wireless technology and to identify
the different opportunities in each region of the world.
- Regulators: Senior executives, to appreciate the probable role of
different wireless broadband technologies in their regions.
Authors
Dr Alastair Brydon and Dr Mark Heath are authors of more than 40
Analysys Mason reports, including: iPhone Shows the Way for Mobile TV;
Critical Ingredients of Mobile TV: femtocells and sideloading; 3G Network
Evolution from 2007 to 2012: HSPA+, LTE, WiMAX and femtocells; The Business
Case for Picocells and Femtocells in the Enterprise Market; Femtocells in the
Consumer Market: business case and marketing plan; How to Succeed with Fixed -
Mobile Convergence; The Acceleration of Fixed - Mobile Substitution in Western
Europe: facts and figures; Seizing the Opportunities from Enterprise Mobility;
The Future of the Global Wireless Industry: scenarios for 2007 - 12; The
World' s Top Ten Non-voice Services for Mobile Operators; Mobile Operator
Strategies for Fixed Broadband; The Business Case for WiMAX; and Forecasting
the Commercial Impact of Wireless VoIP in the USA and Western Europe.
Alastair is CEO of Sound Partners Ltd. Prior to joining Sound Partners, he
reported to Nokia' s European management team and worked with many of Nokia' s
customers to implement market firsts ranging from the introduction of prepaid
mobile tariffs to new mass-market content services. Previously, Alastair
worked in a number of roles for the BT Group, focusing on the evolution of
wireless services, networks and technologies. He also contributed to
international research and standardisation of GSM, DECT and 3G. Alastair holds
BSc and PhD degrees from UMIST, where he was awarded the IEE Prize for top
student.
Mark is Director of Research at Sound Partners Ltd. In the past, he held a
number of marketing and business development roles in Nokia, ultimately
becoming responsible for strategy and business development across Europe.
Previously, Mark was responsible for business planning at BT Cellnet in the
UK, after spending six years at BT in wireless systems research and
development. He holds BSc and PhD degrees from the University of Leeds,
winning the University prize for his research in telecoms. Mark also holds an
MBA, graduating as top student from Henley Management College.
Table of Contents
- 4. Document map - Executive summary
- 5. Executive summary
- 6. Document map - Overall wireless broadband market
- 7. Wireless broadband will be delivered by a variety of technologies
- 8. High take-up of wireless broadband services will expand the user base
from 70 million in 2008 to 2.1 billion by 2015
- 9. Cellular technologies will be the dominant means of supporting wireless
broadband users
- 10. Underpinning our forecasts is growth in take-up of wireless broadband
arising from some key market drivers
- 11. Developing regions will propel the number of cellular customers from
3.5 billion in 2008 to 5.0 billion by 2015
- 12. Demand for wireless broadband services, and for higher quality, will
increase
- 13. To increase capacity and efficiency, MNOs will encourage migration to
advanced technologies
- 14. Annual revenue from wireless broadband will represent 58% of total
service revenue in 2015
- 15. Most wireless broadband users in 2015 will be in developing regions,
where service revenue will be low
- 16. Document map - HSPA and HSPA+
- 17. HSPA networks are already becoming widespread
- 18. HSPA/HSPA+ will dominate wireless broadband services, with 1.1 billion
customers worldwide by 2015
- 19. Worldwide annual service revenue from HSPA/HSPA+ will peak at USD410
billion in 2014
- 20. Many HSPA operators will upgrade to HSPA+, even once LTE becomes
available
- 21. Document map - Broadband EV-DO
- 22. EV-DO will be limited to the niche of CDMA2000 networks and will reach
404 million customers by 2015
- 23. Developed Asia and North America will dominate EV-DO service revenue
of USD174 billion in 2015
- 24. Document map - LTE
- 25. Most MNOs will not invest in WiMAX, but will evolve to LTE from HSPA
and HSPA+
- 26. After a slow start, LTE growth will accelerate to gain 440 million
customers by 2015
- 27. High ARPU levels will cause LTE service revenue to reach USD194
billion in 2015
- 28. Western Europe and developed Asia will lead the growth of LTE
- 29. Developing regions will account for 36% of LTE customers by 2015
- 30. Low ARPU in developing regions will limit their contribution to LTE
service revenue
- 31. HSPA+ is an important technology, but LTE will have a larger user base
by 2015
- 32. Document map - WiMAX
- 33. In developed markets, WiMAX will face intense competition from fixed
and cellular broadband services
- 34. The limited success of fixed BWA in developed markets highlights the
challenge for WiMAX
- 35. Competition from other technologies will limit WiMAX' s global customer
base to 98 million in 2015
- 36. Developing regions will generate 70% of the total WiMAX service
revenue of USD13 billion in 2015
- 37. Cellular broadband customers will outnumber and outspend WiMAX users
- 38. Annex - Wireless broadband technology overview
- 39. Cellular standards define a series of broadband capabilities
- 40. HSPA and HSPA+ significantly enhance UMTS radio interface performance
- 41. HSPA+ employs higher-order modulation and smart antennas to boost the
performance of HSPA
- 42. EV-DO provides CDMA2000 operators with a similar evolution path to HSPA
- 43. LTE is a major development by 3GPP that will be commercially available
towards the end of 2009
- 44. WiMAX IEEE 802.16e-2005 supports mobile broadband services
- 45. Document map - Authors, copyright and key to acronyms
- 46. Authors
- 47. Acknowledgements
- 48. Copyright and disclaimer
- 49. Key to acronyms
- 50. Document map - Lists of figures and tables
- 51. List of figures and tables [1]
- 52. List of figures and tables [2]
- 53. Document map - About Analysys Mason reports and services
- 54. About Analysys Mason
- 55. Reports from Analysys Mason
- 56. Market intelligence services from Analysys Mason
- 57. Custom Research from Analysys Mason
List of figures and tables[1]
- Figure 1: Technologies that deliver wide-area wireless broadband services
- Figure 2: Wireless customers worldwide, 2008 - 2015
- Figure 3: Wireless broadband customers worldwide, by technology, 2008 -
2015
- Figure 4: Key factors driving the take-up of wireless broadband services
- Figure 5: Cellular customers worldwide, by region, 2008 - 2015
- Figure 6: Service and quality drivers for wireless broadband services
- Figure 7: Estimated network capacities for W-CDMA, HSPA, HSPA+ and LTE for
a typical deployment of 10 000 base stations
- Figure 8: Wireless service revenue worldwide, 2008 - 2015
- Figure 9: Proportion of wireless broadband customers in developed and
developing regions, 2008 - 2015
- Figure 10: Proportion of wireless broadband service revenue from developed
and developing regions, 2008 - 2015
- Figure 11: W-CDMA and HSPA active commercial networks worldwide, December
2005 to June 2008
- Figure 12: HSPA/HSPA+ customers worldwide, by region, 2008 - 2015
- Figure 13: HSPA/HSPA+ service revenue worldwide, by region, 2008 - 2015
- Figure 14: Split between HSPA and HSPA+ customers, 2008 - 2015
- Figure 15: Broadband EV-DO customers worldwide, by region, 2008 - 2015
List of figures and tables [2]
- Figure 16: Broadband EV-DO service revenue worldwide, by region, 2008 -
2015
- Figure 17: LTE customers worldwide, by region, 2008 - 2015
- Figure 18: LTE service revenue worldwide, by region, 2008 - 2015
- Figure 19: LTE customers in developed regions, 2008 - 2015
- Figure 20: LTE customers in developing regions, 2008 - 2015
- Figure 21: Proportion of LTE customers in developed and developing
regions, 2012 - 2015
- Figure 22: Proportion of LTE service revenue from developed and developing
regions, 2012 - 2015
- Figure 23: Number of customers worldwide using HSPA+ or LTE technology,
2008 - 2015
- Figure 24: Properties of fixed and cellular broadband services that will
allow them to squeeze WiMAX services in developed regions
- Figure 25: Actual broadband connection penetration of population in
Western European countries, by service type, March 2008
- Figure 26: WiMAX customers worldwide, by region, 2008 - 2015
- Figure 27: WiMAX service revenue worldwide, by region, 2008 - 2015
- Figure 28: Wireless broadband customers worldwide, by technology, 2008 -
2015
- Figure 29: ARPU from cellular broadband and WiMAX services worldwide, 2008
- 2015
- Table 1: Summary of advanced wireless broadband technologies
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