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市場調查報告書
在美國及西歐，無線VoIP對語音市場產生的影響
Forecasting the Commercial Impact of Wireless VoIP in the USA and Western Europe
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本報告已在2012年05月03日停止出版。
各界對利用3G、WLAN、及WiMAX等各種無線技術提供VoIP服務的關注逐漸昇高，而這些服務又將為網路業者、設備銷售企業以及其他眾多企業帶來龐大商機。但這些技術和服務同時又將留下多少並廣泛地被利用，對語音服務的利用及收益是否產生影響等不確定性。
在通訊及媒體領域擁有豐富調查及顧問服務經驗的英國市調公司 Analysys Ltd.（總公司：英國劍橋），針對美國及西歐市場中無線VoIP對語音市場產生的影響進行調查分析，並將市場分析及預測整理後出版報告書 "Forecasting the Commercial Impact of Wireless VoIP in the USA and Western Europe" 。
本報告書內容包括：2006年至2015年行動及固定語音服務的通訊量、以蜂巢式網路、WLAN、BWA等技術類型別所做的收益及ARPU詳細預測，以及線路交換及VoIP別分析等。內容綱要摘記如下：
摘要
第1章 行動產業中的企業應在整體策略中評估無線VoIP所造成的影響
第2章 行動網路業者及最終使用者是決定無線VoIP成功與否的重要參與者
- 無線VoIP為通訊產業的眾多企業帶來潛在的商機與威脅
- 業界企業不應認為VoIP服務的發展歷程會與固定及行動網路的發展歷程相同
- 迫切期望銷售基礎建構、終端設備及服務的設備銷售企業是目前無線VoIP最主要的支持者
- 行動網路業者在無線VoIP發展的未來中是不可或缺的存在，但是前提是必須要更新線路交換的語音基礎建構
- 無線VoIP服務只有在對最終使用者而言是有吸引力的替代性服務時才會成功
- 無線產業中的企業若希望掌握能取得重大利益的機會，就必須將無線VoIP對整體語音市場產生的影響定量化
第3章 蜂巢式無線網路技術的提昇為針對總體市場的無線VoIP服務創造了長期的商機
- 根據美國CDMA2000 1× EV-DO之修訂的A的初期發展，蜂巢式VoIP的發展可望領先西歐
- 由於領先3G LTE的商用發展，為了改變線路交換方式語音通訊之針對W-CDMA業者的商業個案並不存在
- 3G LTE相對低廉的發訊成本、擴充的網路容量，以及更多服務的優點，創造了W-CDMA業者採用VoIP的商業個案
- 為了朝蜂巢式VoIP發展並提供充份的服務質與量，有必要投資像軟開關等IP核心網路設備
- 蜂巢式VoIP終端設備的生產比起雙模、蜂巢式／WLAN終端設備，規模經濟創造利益的效果更為明顯
- 行動業者為掌握短期及長期的套利機會，可採取相應的行動
- 蜂巢式VoIP服務日漸成熟後，行動業者為了維持ARPU，需自行將服務定位為特別超值服務才行
- 蜂巢式VoIP服務由於CDMA2000業者採用EV-DO修訂的A，在美國的發展可望超前西歐
- 至2015年為止，西歐的蜂巢式VoIP將受到更廣泛利用，創造出超過所有固定語音服務的收益
- 蜂巢式VoIP的利用程度因國家、業者不同而有相當大的差異
第4章 蜂巢式VoIP服務的優勢將牽制作為利基商機之替代性網路中的無線VoIP
- 替代性無線技術中的VoIP為了與蜂巢式語音服務競爭而陷入苦戰
- 針對住宅的VoLAN服務由於缺乏服務的多樣性、設備不足、缺乏與蜂巢式服務間的價格差異等因素影響，普及的腳步遲緩
- 公共VoWLAN無法和蜂巢式服務的無所不在特性、方便性，以及成本效益相提並論
- 針對企業的VoWLAN雖然是商業解決方案提供業者的良好商機，但WLAN的成本卻是普及的障礙
- BWA網路的有限普及，將減弱美國及西歐市場中BWA VoIP服務的影響力
行動方案
圖表
Abstract
A report identifying the triggers for mass market wireless VoIP and quantifying its impact on the fixed and mobile voice markets.
This report answers your key questions:
- What are the barriers to the adoption of wireless VoIP services? How and
when will these barriers be overcome, and what will drive adoption?
- What contribution will wireless VoIP make to the total (fixed and mobile)
voice market, in terms of traffic volume and revenues?
- What will be the relative contributions of VoIP over 3G, WLAN and BWA?
- How will wireless VoIP usage and revenues compare to fixed voice services?
- How will the evolution of 3G networks affect the migration from
circuitswitched voice services to VoIP?
- How will wireless VoIP affect the evolution of mobile voice pricing?
- What actions should operators, service providers, vendors and VoIP
software providers take to seize the opportunities that wireless VoIP presents
and overcome the risks?
Overview
Retail fixed-line VoIP services are already being adopted by both business and
residential customers, and represent a major long-term threat to incumbent
fixedtelephony revenues. There is now growing interest in delivering VoIP
services over a range of wireless technologies (including 3G, WLAN and WiMAX).
Wireless VoIP services could bring significant opportunities and risks for
network operators, service providers and equipment vendors. However, there is
still substantial uncertainty over the extent to which wireless VoIP will be
adopted and the impact it will have on the usage and revenue of voice services
in general.
Currently, wireless VoIP is being driven predominantly by cellular and BWA
equipment vendors, keen to sell new VoIPenabled capabilities. However,
widespread deployment of wireless VoIP services will demand that mobile
operators in particular see a convincing case for wireless VoIP services.
This report identifies the key turning points in the growth of wireless VoIP
and quantifies the impact of cellular, WLAN and BWA VoIP on the overall voice
market over the next ten years. It identifies the actions needed by network
operators, services providers and equipment vendors to maximise the
opportunities and minimise the threats.
Table of Contents
0. Summary
1. Players in the mobile industry must assess the impact of wireless VoIP in the context of overall strategy
2. Mobile network operators and end users will be critical players in determining the success of wireless VoIP
- 2.1 Wireless VoIP brings potential opportunities and threats for many
players in the telecoms industry
- 2.2 Industry players should not assume that VoIP services will follow the
same evolutionary path on fixed and mobile networks
- 2.3 Equipment vendors, keen to sell infrastructure, handsets and services,
are the main current proponents of wireless VoIP
- 2.4 Mobile network operators are crucial to the future of wireless VoIP
but must be persuaded to replace their circuit-switched voice infrastructure
- 2.5 Wireless VoIP services will only succeed if they are an attractive
alternative to existing voice services for end users
- 2.6 Wireless industry players need to quantify the impact of wireless VoIP
on the overall voice market in order to focus on the greatest revenue
opportunities
3. Improvements to cellular radio technology will create the long-term business case for mass-market wireless VoIP services
- 3.1 Early deployment of CDMA2000 1X EV-DO Revision A in the USA will give
cellular VoIP a head start over Western Europe
- 3.2 Prior to the commercial deployment of 3G LTE, there will be no
business case for W-CDMA operators to migrate from circuit-switched voice
- 3.3 The lower cost of delivery, enhanced network capacity and increased
service benefits of 3G LTE will create the business case for W-CDMA operators
to embrace VoIP
- 3.4 Migration to cellular VoIP wi ll require investment in IP core network
equipment such as softswitches in order to provide sufficient capacity and
quality of service
- 3.5 The production of cellular VoIP handsets will benefit from greater
economies of scale than dual-mode, cellular/WLAN handsets
- 3.6 Mobile operators can take action to control arbitrage opportunities in
both the short and long term
- 3.7 When cellular VoIP services mature, mobile operators must position
them as premium voice services in order to maintain ARPU
- 3.8 Cellular VoIP services will be adopted earlier in the USA than in
Western Europe as CDMA2000 operators introduce EV-DO Rev A
- 3.9 Cellular VoIP will begin to grow rapidly in Western Europe from 2011,
following the introduction of 3G LTE
- 3.10 By 2015 cellular VoIP will carry more traffic and generate more
revenue than all fixed voice services in Western Europe
- 3.11 There will be significant differences among countries and operators
in the extent to which they embrace cellular VoIP services
4. The dominance of cellular VoIP services will constrain wireless VoIP on alternative networks to niche opportunities
- 4.1 VoIP on alternative wireless technologies will struggle to compete
with cellular voice services
- 4.2 Residential VoWLAN services will be held back by the complexity of the
service, the limitations of handsets and the lack of price differentiation
from cellular services
- 4.3 Public VoWLAN will be unable to compete with the ubiquity, simplicity
and cost effectiveness of cellular services
- 4.4 Enterprise VoWLAN will be an opportunity for business solution
providers, but WLAN costs will constrain deployment
- 4.5 The limited deployment of BWA networks will constrain the impact of
BWA VoIP services in the USA and Western Europe
- Actions
- Market intelligence services from Analysys Research
- Reports from Analysys Research
- Custom Research: meeting your information needs
- Analysys Consulting
List of Figures and Tables
- Figur e 0.1: Annual voice minutes carried by fixed and wireless networks
in the USA, 2006-15
- Figur e 0.2: Annual voice minutes carried by fixed and wireless networks
in Western Europe, 2006-15
- Table 2.1: Categories of cellular networks, WLAN and BWA technologies and
examples of wireless VoIP solutions that use these technologies
- Table 2.2: Potential opportunities and threats created by wireless VoIP
services on cellular networks, WLAN and BWA technologies
- Table 2.3: Evolution of capabilities from W-CDMA Release 99
- Table 2.4: Evolution of capabilities from CDMA2000 1X Revision 0
- Figur e 3.1: Average voice minutes per user per month in the USA for
cellular services, 2006-15
- Figur e 3.2: Annual voice minutes carried by fixed and wireless services
in the USA, 2006-15
- Figur e 3.3: Average voice revenues per user per month in the USA for
cellular services, 2006-15
- Figur e 3.4: Annual revenues generated by fixed and wireless voice
services in the USA, 2006-15
- Figur e 3.5: Average cellular voice minutes per user per month in Western
Europe, 2006-15
- Figur e 3.6: Annual voice minutes carried by fixed and wireless services
in Western Europe, 2006-15
- Figur e 3.7: Average retail revenues per outgoing call minute generated by
fixed and cellular voice services in Western Europe, 2006-15
- Figur e 3.8: Average voice revenue per user per month in Western Europe
for cellular services, 2006-15
- Figur e 3.9: Annual revenues generated by fixed and wireless voice
services in Western Europe, 2006-15
- Figur e 3.10: Penetration of fixed broadband and cellular mobile services
in the USA and Western Europe, 2006-15
- Figur e 4.1: Annual voice minutes carried by VoIP services on BWA,
cellular and WLAN networks in Western Europe and the USA, 2006-15
- Figur e 4.2: Annual revenues generated by VoIP services on cellular, WLAN
and BWA networks in Western Europe and the USA, 2006-15
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