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西歐的通訊服務:趨勢、預測 2016-2021年

Communication Services in Western Europe: Trends and Forecasts 2016-2021

出版商 Analysys Mason 商品編碼 365856
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 30 Slides
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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西歐的通訊服務:趨勢、預測 2016-2021年 Communication Services in Western Europe: Trends and Forecasts 2016-2021
出版日期: 2016年08月08日 內容資訊: 英文 30 Slides



  • 通訊應用程式流量超過SMS:2015年透過應用程式發送11兆件訊息
  • 至2021年人口有60%以上利用OTT訊息服務
  • LINE WeChat 展開的平台服務超越核心亞洲市場擴展
  • 智慧型手機仍為主導的通訊設備
  • 經營者的策略性支援在各地區有很大的不同、其他


  • 西歐:SMS在地區中大幅下降,主要是WhatsApp獲得利益
  • 西歐:業者在語音中維持優勢,不過,受到替代服務激烈挑戰


  • 法國:由於IP型的創新,業者有強化自身通訊服務的機會
  • 德國:WhatsApp支配德國;業者對於自身的IP型服務差異化苦戰惡鬥
  • 西班牙:靠近WhatsApp的普遍存在的有效半徑,顯現業者所提供的語音服務的大威脅
  • 英國:業者Wi-Fi重視通話及VoLTE,不過,辛苦遏制VoIP




"OTT voice services will gain traction in Western Europe, led by WhatsApp and supported by an increasingly open approach to third-party services from Apple (iOS) and Google (Android)."

This report provides an outlook on the mobile communication services market in Western Europe, including country views for France, Germany, Spain and the United Kingdom. It provides forecasts for voice and messaging services provided by both mobile network operators and over-the-top (OTT) providers.

This report provides:

  • forecasts for operator services including VoLTE, Wi-Fi calling and IP messaging, as well as traditional voice and SMS services
  • quantification of the level of substitution from traditional services to OTT alternatives
  • user and traffic forecasts for communication services, including OTT voice and messaging
  • an outlook for multi-device usage across smartphones, tablets and PCs/laptops
  • data for the region as a whole and for 16 countries
  • individual profiles for France, Germany, Spain and the United Kingdom.
Geographical coverageKey metrics
  • Worldwide
  • WE region
  • Countries modelled in the data annex:
    • Austria
    • Belgium
    • Denmark
    • Finland
    • France
    • Germany
    • Greece
    • Ireland
    • Italy
    • Netherlands
    • Norway
    • Portugal
    • Spain
    • Sweden
    • Switzerland
    • United Kingdom
  • Non-operator/OTT services
    • Voice and messaging
    • Active users by device type
    • Outgoing traffic by device type
  • Operator traditional services
    • Handsets
    • Circuit-switched (CS) voice and SMS
    • Outgoing traffic
  • Operator IP-based services
    • Active users by service type:
      • VoLTE, Wi-Fi calling, IP messaging
    • Outgoing traffic by service type
      • VoLTE, Wi-Fi calling, IP messaging
    • Retail revenue
      • Voice and messaging
      • Average spend per user


Stephen Sale (Research Director, Consumer Services) oversees Analysys Mason's consumer research and is also the lead analyst for the Future Comms and Media research programme. His primary areas of specialisation include next-generation communication services, over-the-top (OTT) player strategies and mobile pricing. He also has extensive experience in analysing operator strategies and forecasting fixed and mobile service markets. Before joining Analysys Mason in 2004, Stephen worked in the industry on areas that include VoIP, next-generation service architecture and broadband access. He has a degree in economics and an interdisciplinary MRes from the University of London.

Michael Lane (Research Analyst) works for the Consumer Services research team, analysing the consumer surveys that underpin the Fixed Broadband and Multi-Play, Mobile Devices and Mobile Services programmes. His interests include statistical inference, forecast model fitting, auction theory and game theoretical approaches to problem solving. Michael holds a BSc in Mathematics from Imperial College London.

Table of Contents

  • 5. Executive summary
  • 6. Executive summary
  • 7. Worldwide trends
  • 8. Worldwide: Messaging apps have overtaken SMS in traffic - over 11 trillion messages were sent through apps in 2015
  • 9. Worldwide: OTT messaging services will be used by over 60% of the population by 2021
  • 10. Worldwide: The platform proposition advanced by LINE and WeChat is spreading beyond core Asian markets
  • 11. Worldwide: Smartphones will continue to be the dominant communication device
  • 12. Worldwide: Strategic responses from operators vary markedly in different regions
  • 13. Worldwide: Operators are migrating smartphone users to VoLTE services - nearly 2.4 billion subscribers are expected by 2021
  • 14. Worldwide: Many operators are rolling out Wi-Fi calling, principally to improve indoor coverage
  • 15. Worldwide: Google's involvement may boost Rich Communications Services, but usage is likely to remain low
  • 16. Regional trends
  • 17. Western Europe: SMS is in steep decline in the region, with WhatsApp as the main beneficiary
  • 18. Western Europe: Operators will remain dominant in voice, but will be severely challenged by alternatives
  • 19. Country-level trends
  • 20. France: Operators have an opportunity to strengthen their communication services with IP-based innovation
  • 21. Germany: WhatsApp dominates in Germany; operators will struggle to differentiate their own IP-based offerings
  • 22. Spain: The near-ubiquitous reach of WhatsApp poses a major threat to operator-provided voice services
  • 23. United Kingdom: Operators are focusing on Wi-Fi calling and VoLTE, but they will struggle to contain VoIP
  • 24. Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 29. Forecast outputs and definitions
  • 30. Forecast methodology
  • 31. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 32. About the authors
  • 33. About Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Messaging traffic, Western Europe, 2010-2021
  • Figure 2: Mobile voice traffic, Western Europe, 2010-2021
  • Figure 3: Messages sent by message type worldwide, 2010-2015
  • Figure 4: Messages sent by message type and number of OTT messaging active users worldwide, 2010-2021
  • Figure 5: OTT messaging users by device worldwide, 2010-2021
  • Figure 6: OTT voice users by device worldwide, 2010-2021
  • Figure 7: Retail revenue for operator mobile voice services worldwide, 2015-2021
  • Figure 8: Retail revenue for SMS services worldwide, 2015-2021
  • Figure 9: Active users of VoLTE services by region, 2015-2021
  • Figure 10: Wi-Fi calling service users and traffic worldwide, 2015-2021
  • Figure 11: Traffic for all mobile operator messaging services and number of operator-provided IP messaging service users worldwide, 2015-2021
  • Figure 12: Messaging traffic, Western Europe, 2010-2021
  • Figure 13: Mobile voice traffic, Western Europe, 2010-2021
  • Figure 14: Messaging traffic by message type, France, 2010-2021
  • Figure 15: Messaging traffic by message type, Germany, 2010-2021
  • Figure 16: Messaging traffic by message type, Spain, 2010-2021
  • Figure 17: Messaging traffic by message type, United Kingdom, 2010-2021
  • Figure 18: Overview of the main forecast outputs
  • Figure 19: Overview of the forecast methodology used in this report
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