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市場調查報告書

撒哈拉以南非洲的通訊服務:趨勢、預測 2016-2021年

Communication Services in Sub-Saharan Africa: Trends and Forecasts 2016-2021

出版商 Analysys Mason 商品編碼 365855
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 30 Slides
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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撒哈拉以南非洲的通訊服務:趨勢、預測 2016-2021年 Communication Services in Sub-Saharan Africa: Trends and Forecasts 2016-2021
出版日期: 2016年08月08日 內容資訊: 英文 30 Slides
簡介

本報告提供撒哈拉以南非洲的行動通訊服務市場相關調查,傳統的語音、SMS服務,包含VoLTE,Wi-Fi通話及IP通訊的業者服務的預測,從傳統服務轉OTT替代服務等級的定量化,包含OTT語音、通訊的通訊服務的用戶、流量預測,跨智慧型手機、平板電腦、PC/筆記型電腦的多設備利用的展望,各地各國的資料,及各國的簡介等。

全球趨勢

  • 通訊應用程式流量超過SMS:2015年透過應用程式發送11兆件訊息
  • 至2021年人口有60%以上利用OTT訊息服務
  • LINE WeChat 展開的平台服務超越核心亞洲市場擴展
  • 智慧型手機仍為主導的通訊設備
  • 經營者的策略性支援在各地區有很大的不同、其他

地區趨勢

  • 撒哈拉以南非洲:社群、訊息服務預計對業者來說仍為成長的重要促進要素
  • 撒哈拉以南非洲:業者仍從行動語音的穩定成長得到利益

各國趨勢

  • 迦納:SMS依然成長,不過,預計由於智慧型手機普及率擴大調換OTT通訊
  • 肯亞:Airtel是用戶相關第2名,為了促進行動數據採用提供社群媒體配套
  • 奈及利亞:大部分經營者推薦社群媒體配套;LTE還在試驗階段,因此IP轉換是不現實的
  • 南非:Cell C由於WhatsApp的推銷大力開展年輕人市場

預測手法、前提條件

著者、ANALYSYS MASON

目錄

"Messaging apps are hugely popular in the Sub-Saharan Africa region, though their impact has been limited by relatively low smartphone penetration."

This report provides an outlook on the mobile communication services market in the Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) region, including country views for Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa. It provides forecasts for voice and messaging services provided by both mobile network operators and over-the-top (OTT) providers.

This report provides:

  • forecasts for operator services including VoLTE, Wi-Fi calling and IP messaging, as well as traditional voice and SMS services
  • quantification of the level of substitution from traditional services to OTT alternatives
  • user and traffic forecasts for communication services, including OTT voice and messaging
  • an outlook for multi-device usage across smartphones, tablets and PCs/laptops
  • data provided for the region as a whole and for Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa
  • individual profiles for Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa.
Geographical coverageKey metrics
  • Worldwide
  • SSA region
  • Countries modelled in the data annex:
    • Ghana
    • Kenya
    • Nigeria
    • South Africa
  • Non-operator/OTT services
    • Voice and messaging
    • Active users by device type
    • Outgoing traffic by device type
  • Operator traditional services
    • Handsets
    • Circuit-switched (CS) voice and SMS
    • Outgoing traffic
  • Operator IP-based services
    • Active users by service type:
      • VoLTE, Wi-Fi calling, IP messaging
    • Outgoing traffic by service type
      • VoLTE, Wi-Fi calling, IP messaging
    • Retail revenue
      • Voice and messaging
      • Average spend per user

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Stephen Sale (Research Director) oversees Analysys Mason's consumer research and is also the lead analyst for the Future Comms and Media research programme. His primary areas of specialisation include next-generation communication services, OTT player strategies and mobile pricing. He also has extensive experience in analysing operator strategies and forecasting fixed and mobile service markets. Before joining Analysys Mason in 2004, Stephen worked in the industry on areas that include VoIP, next-generation service architecture and broadband access. He has a degree in economics and an interdisciplinary MRes from the University of London.

Karim Yaici (Senior Analyst) leads Analysys Mason's The Middle East and Africa regional research programme. His primary areas of specialisation include operators' digital strategies, new telecoms opportunities and challenges, and consumer trends in growth markets. Prior to joining Analysys Mason, Karim was an associate analyst at Ovum, where he authored reports on mobile accessories and mobile applications. Prior to that, he worked as a research engineer in the Institute for Communication Systems and Vodafone. Karim holds an MSc in Information Systems Management from the University of Southampton and a PhD in human-computer interaction from the University of Surrey.

Table of Contents

  • 5. Executive summary
  • 6. Executive summary
  • 7. Worldwide trends
  • 8. Worldwide: Messaging apps have overtaken SMS in traffic - over 11 trillion messages were sent through apps in 2015
  • 9. Worldwide: OTT messaging services will be used by over 60% of the population by 2021
  • 10. Worldwide: The platform proposition advanced by LINE and WeChat is spreading beyond core Asian markets
  • 11. Worldwide: Smartphones will continue to be the dominant communication device
  • 12. Worldwide: Strategic responses from operators vary markedly in different regions
  • 13. Worldwide: Operators are migrating smartphone users to VoLTE services - nearly 2.4 billion subscribers are expected by 2021
  • 14. Worldwide: Many operators are rolling out Wi-Fi calling, principally to improve indoor coverage
  • 15. Worldwide: Google's involvement may boost Rich Communications Services, but usage is likely to remain low
  • 16. Regional trends
  • 17. Sub-Saharan Africa: Social and messaging services will continue to be an important driver of growth for operators
  • 18. Sub-Saharan Africa: Operators will continue to benefit from strong growth in mobile voice
  • 19. Country-level trends
  • 20. Ghana: SMS is still growing, but will be substituted by OTT messaging as smartphone penetration increases
  • 21. Kenya: Airtel is second in terms of subscribers and is offering social media bundles to drive mobile data adoption
  • 22. Nigeria: Most operators are pushing social media bundles; LTE is still at the trial stage, so IP transformation is distant
  • 23. South Africa: Cell C has been vigorously pursuing the youth market with a WhatsApp promotion
  • 24. Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 25. Forecast outputs and definitions
  • 26. Forecast methodology
  • 27. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 28. About the authors
  • 29. Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Messaging traffic, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2010-2021
  • Figure 2: Mobile voice traffic, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2010-2021
  • Figure 3: Messages sent by message type worldwide, 2010-2015
  • Figure 4: Messages sent by message type and number of OTT messaging active users worldwide, 2010-2021
  • Figure 5: Percentage of OTT messaging users by device worldwide, 2010-2021
  • Figure 6: Percentage of OTT voice users by device worldwide, 2010-2021
  • Figure 7: Retail revenue for operator mobile voice services worldwide , 2015-2021
  • Figure 8: Retail revenue for SMS services worldwide, 2015-2021
  • Figure 9: Active users of VoLTE services by region, 2015-2021
  • Figure 10: Wi-Fi calling service users and traffic worldwide, 2015-2021
  • Figure 11: Traffic for all mobile operator messaging services and number of operator-provided IP messaging service users worldwide, 2015-2021
  • Figure 12: Messaging traffic, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2010-2021
  • Figure 13: Mobile voice traffic, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2010-2021
  • Figure 14: Messaging traffic by message type, Ghana, 2010-2021
  • Figure 15: Messaging traffic by message type, Kenya, 2010-2021
  • Figure 16: Messaging traffic by message type, Nigeria, 2010-2021
  • Figure 17: Messaging traffic by message type, South Africa, 2010-2021
  • Figure 18: Overview of the main forecast outputs
  • Figure 19: Overview of the forecast methodology used in this report
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