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中東歐的通訊服務:趨勢、預測 2016-2021年

Communication Services in Central and Eastern Europe: Trends and Forecasts 2016-2021

出版商 Analysys Mason 商品編碼 365854
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 32 Slides
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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中東歐的通訊服務:趨勢、預測 2016-2021年 Communication Services in Central and Eastern Europe: Trends and Forecasts 2016-2021
出版日期: 2016年08月08日 內容資訊: 英文 32 Slides



  • 通訊應用程式流量超過SMS:2015年透過應用程式發送11兆件訊息
  • 至2021年人口有60%以上利用OTT訊息服務
  • LINE WeChat 展開的平台服務超過核心亞洲市場擴展
  • 智慧型手機接連主導的通訊設備
  • 由於經營者的策略性支援在各地區有很大不同
  • 業者將用戶轉移VoLTE服務 - 至2021年預計智慧型手機用戶約24億
  • 許多業者主要為了改善室內涵蓋範圍發展Wi-Fi通話
  • Google的投資支援進階通訊服務,不過,預計利用仍然很低


  • 中東歐:OTT通訊應用程式預計普及擴大,出示對業者的課題
  • 中東歐:VoIP尚未獲得大氣勢


  • 捷克:Facebook Messenger是主要的OTT企業;市場有成長可能性,不過大部分未開發
  • 波蘭:OTT服務還未真正替代國內行動通訊利用,WhatsApp改變這個情況
  • 俄羅斯:OTT替代仍未對俄羅斯沒帶來強大影響,提供業者絕好的機會
  • 土耳其:WhatsApp獲得廣大的青年人市場,不過,業者反應自己的計畫




"Penetration of OTT messaging services in Central and Eastern Europe is relatively low compared with other regions, but we anticipate growth: over 80% of smartphone users will be regular OTT users by 2021."

This report provides an outlook on the mobile communication services market in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), including country views for Czech Republic, Poland, Russia and Turkey. It provides forecasts for voice and messaging services provided by both mobile network operators and over-the-top (OTT) providers.

This report provides:

  • forecasts for operator services including VoLTE, Wi-Fi calling and IP messaging, as well as traditional voice and SMS services
  • quantification of the level of substitution from traditional services to OTT alternatives
  • user and traffic forecasts for communication services, including OTT voice and messaging
  • an outlook for multi-device usage across smartphones, tablets and PCs/laptops
  • data provided for the region as a whole and for Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey and Ukraine
  • individual profiles for Czech Republic, Poland, Russia and Turkey.
Geographical coverageKey metrics
  • Worldwide
  • CEE region
  • Countries modelled in the data annex:
    • Bulgaria
    • Croatia
    • Czech Republic
    • Estonia
    • Hungary
    • Latvia
    • Lithuania
    • Poland
    • Romania
    • Russia
    • Slovaka
    • Slovenia
    • Turkey
    • Ukraine
  • Non-operator/OTT services
    • Voice and messaging
    • Active users by device type
    • Outgoing traffic by device type
  • Operator traditional services
    • Handsets
    • Circuit-switched (CS) voice and SMS
    • Outgoing traffic
  • Operator IP-based services
    • Active users by service type:
      • VoLTE, Wi-Fi calling, IP messaging
    • Outgoing traffic by service type
      • VoLTE, Wi-Fi calling, IP messaging
    • Retail revenue
      • Voice and messaging
      • Average spend per user


Stephen Sale (Research Director) oversees Analysys Mason's consumer research and is also the lead analyst for the Future Comms and Media research programme. His primary areas of specialisation include next-generation communication services, OTT player strategies and mobile pricing. He also has extensive experience in analysing operator strategies and forecasting fixed and mobile service markets. Before joining Analysys Mason in 2004, Stephen worked in the industry on areas that include VoIP, next-generation service architecture and broadband access. He has a degree in economics and an interdisciplinary MRes from the University of London.

Michael Lane (Research Analyst) works for the Consumer Services research team, analysing the consumer surveys that underpin the Fixed Broadband and Multi-Play, Mobile Devices and Mobile Services programmes. His interests include statistical inference, forecast model fitting, auction theory and game theoretical approaches to problem solving. Michael holds a BSc in Mathematics from Imperial College London.

Table of Contents

  • 5. Executive summary
  • 6. Executive summary
  • 7. Worldwide trends
  • 8. Worldwide: Messaging apps have overtaken SMS in traffic - over 11 trillion messages were sent through apps in 2015
  • 9. Worldwide: OTT messaging services will be used by over 60% of the population by 2021
  • 10. Worldwide: The platform proposition advanced by LINE and WeChat is spreading beyond core Asian markets
  • 11. Worldwide: Smartphones will continue to dominate as communication devices
  • 12. Worldwide: Strategic responses from operators vary markedly in different regions
  • 13. Worldwide: Operators are migrating smartphone users to VoLTE services nearly 2.4 billion subscribers are expected by 2021
  • 14. Worldwide: Many operators are rolling out Wi-Fi calling, principally to improve indoor coverage
  • 15. Worldwide: Google's involvement may boost Rich Communications Services, but usage is likely to remain low
  • 16. Regional trends
  • 17. Central and Eastern Europe: OTT messaging apps are increasing in popularity and will pose challenges to operators
  • 18. Central and Eastern Europe: VoIP has yet to gain significant traction
  • 19. Country-level trends
  • 20. Czech Republic: Facebook Messenger is the main OTT player; there is market growth potential, but it is largely untapped
  • 21. Poland: OTT services are not yet a serious substitute for domestic mobile comms usage; WhatsApp could change this
  • 22. Russia: OTT alternatives have yet to make a strong impact in Russia, which gives operators a window of opportunity
  • 23. Turkey: WhatsApp has captured the large youth market, but operators are responding with their own initiatives
  • 24. Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 25. Forecast outputs and definitions
  • 26. Forecast methodology
  • 27.About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 28. About the authors
  • 29. About Analysys Mason
  • 30. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 31. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Messaging traffic, Central and Eastern Europe, 2010-2021
  • Figure 2: Mobile voice traffic, Central and Eastern Europe, 2010-2021
  • Figure 3: Messages sent by message type worldwide, 2010-2015
  • Figure 4: Messages sent by message type and number of OTT messaging active users worldwide, 2010-2021
  • Figure 5: Percentage of OTT messaging users by device worldwide, 2010-2021
  • Figure 6: Percentage of OTT voice users by device worldwide, 2010-2021
  • Figure 7: Retail revenue for operator mobile voice services worldwide , 2015-2021
  • Figure 8: Retail revenue for SMS services worldwide, 2015-2021
  • Figure 9: Active users of VoLTE services by region, 2015-2021
  • Figure 10: Wi-Fi calling service users and traffic worldwide, 2015-2021
  • Figure 11: Traffic for all mobile operator messaging services and number of operator-provided IP messaging service users worldwide, 2015-2021
  • Figure 12: Messaging traffic, Central and Eastern Europe, 2010-2021
  • Figure 13: Mobile voice traffic, Central and Eastern Europe, 2010-2021
  • Figure 14: Messaging traffic by message type, Czech Republic, 2010-2021
  • Figure 15: Messaging traffic by message type, Poland, 2010-2021
  • Figure 16: Messaging traffic by message type, Russia, 2010-2021
  • Figure 17: Messaging traffic by message type, Turkey, 2010-2021
  • Figure 18: Overview of the main forecast outputs
  • Figure 19: Overview of the forecast methodology used in this report
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