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市場調查報告書

先進亞太地區無線網絡數據流量趨勢、預測

Wireless Network Data Traffic in Developed Asia-Pacific: Trends and Forecasts 2015-2020

出版商 Analysys Mason 商品編碼 363387
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 33 Slides
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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先進亞太地區無線網絡數據流量趨勢、預測 Wireless Network Data Traffic in Developed Asia-Pacific: Trends and Forecasts 2015-2020
出版日期: 2016年07月12日 內容資訊: 英文 33 Slides
簡介

本報告提供先進亞太地區無線網絡數據流量調查,全球市場的趨勢,先進亞太地區及主要國家的資料利用量及資料流量的變化與預測,設備區分、公共/私有等明細,主要趨勢、市場影響因素分析等彙整資料。

調查對象

  • 全球市場
  • 先進亞太地區
    • 香港
    • 日本
    • 韓國
    • 台灣

調查資料

  • 行動數據利用量、平均利用量
    • 終端
    • 中型螢幕設備
    • USB數據機&路由器
    • M2M、智慧穿戴式
  • 行動數據流量
    • 公共/私人
    • 每一智慧型手機的平均利用
    • 下游/上游產業
  • WiFi資料利用量、平均利用量
    • 終端
    • 中型螢幕設備
      • 行動連線設備
      • Wi-Fionly設備
    • 只筆記型電腦 (公共Wi-Fi連接)
  • WiFi資料流量
    • 公共/私人
  • ■目錄
  • 摘要整理
  • 全球趨勢
  • 地區趨勢
  • 國家層級趨勢
  • 預測手法、前提條件
  • 關於著者、Analysys Mason
目錄

"Pricing discipline and saturation has meant subdued growth in most markets in developed Asia-Pacific, and the linear pattern of growth in usage in the advanced markets of this region raises questions about the purpose of 5G."

Traffic growth in developed Asia-Pacific (DVAP) will be linear, and we forecast only 3.6x growth in traffic in the region between 2015 and 2020, despite sporadic boosts from LTE-A carrier aggregation and the expected launch of 5G.

This report provides:

  • 5-year forecasts of wireless data traffic for DVAP as a whole, and for selected countries
  • worldwide context and specific country commentary for four key countries: Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan
  • analysis of the key trends in, and drivers and inhibitors of, data traffic
  • a discussion of the enablers of future capacity on wireless networks and the cost of supplying that capacity
  • analysis of the trends in private and public usage, and their effect on the use of mobile and Wi-Fi connectivity.

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE

Regions modelledCountries modelled individually
  • Worldwide
  • Developed Asia-Pacific
  • Hong Kong
  • Japan
  • South Korea
  • Taiwan

DATA COVERAGE

Mobile dataWi-Fi data

Total volume and average usage for:

  • handsets
  • mid-screen devices
  • USB modems and routers
  • M2M and smart wearables

Total volume and average usage for:

  • handsets
  • mid-screen devices, split by mobile-connected and Wi-Fi-only devices
  • laptops (public Wi-Fi connectivity only)

Traffic split by:

  • public and private usage
  • median usage per smartphone
  • downstream and upstream

Traffic split by:

  • public and private usage

Table of Contents

  • 5.Executive summary
  • 6.Executive summary
  • 7.Worldwide trends
  • 8.Worldwide: 4G and emerging economies are driving traffic growth, but mobile will remain a sub-10% share of data traffic
  • 9.Worldwide: Traffic growth in advanced LTE markets looks linear - not exponential - and may even turn into s-curves
  • 10.Worldwide: Investment in FTTx may slow the very rapid growth in emerging markets
  • 11.Worldwide: The value of a gigabyte is falling by about 30% per year, but the gross margin on mobile data remains very high
  • 12.Worldwide: There is now little correlation between traffic growth and revenue growth, especially in advanced markets
  • 13.Worldwide: Within 2 years after launch, 4G smartphones generate at least 3 times more traffic than 3G
  • 14.Worldwide: Wi-Fi is already the default at-home network, and could become the default public indoor network
  • 15.Worldwide: The availability of licensed spectrum will become a less important factor in determining the volume of traffic
  • 16.Regional trends
  • 17.Developed Asia-Pacific: Pricing discipline and saturation has meant subdued growth in most regional markets
  • 18.Developed Asia-Pacific: The pattern of growth in traffic will be linear, not exponential
  • 19.Country-level trends
  • 20.Hong Kong: Volume-based pricing and limited competition has impeded the growth of LTE data traffic
  • 21.Japan: Maturity in LTE usage and the growth of HD content is driving traffic to Wi-Fi
  • 22.South Korea: The case for 5G has to go beyond just data capacity and speed
  • 23.Taiwan: Operators have increased 4G allowances, which has inflated data traffic on cellular networks
  • 24.Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 25.Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 26.Definition of geographical regions [1]
  • 27.Definition of geographical regions [2]
  • 28.About the author and Analysys Mason
  • 29.About the author
  • 30.Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
  • 31.Research from Analysys Mason
  • 32.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Summary of report coverage
  • Figure 2: Cellular data traffic, developed Asia-Pacific, by market, 2013-2020
  • Figure 3: 4G and higher device share of traffic, worldwide, emerging and developed economies, 2013 - 2020
  • Figure 4: Cellular data traffic, by region, 2013-2020
  • Figure 5: Mobile share of total worldwide Internet traffic, 2013-2015
  • Figure 6: Annual growth multiples, total mobile data traffic selected advanced LTE markets, 4Q 2011-2Q 2015
  • Figure 7: Average usage per data SIM, normalised to 4Q 2011, selected advanced LTE markets, 4Q 2011-2Q 2015
  • Figure 8: Cellular data traffic, worldwide, developed economies and emerging economies, 2013-2020, Analysys Mason 2014 and 2015 forecasts
  • Figure 9: Data revenue per used GB, handset-only, by region, 2012-2015
  • Figure 10: Typical range of network and wholesale costs, and revenue sold and consumed, Western Europe, 2015
  • Figure 11: Mobile data traffic growth, overall retail revenue growth and data revenue growth, worldwide, 2012-2015
  • Figure 12: Year-on-year retail mobile revenue growth, selected advanced LTE markets, 3Q 2013-2Q 2015
  • Figure 13: Ratio of average 4G and average 3G smartphone usage, worldwide and selected markets
  • Figure 14: US device penetration and average usage, 2010- 2014
  • Figure 15: Smartphone users who connected to Wi-Fi by category of hotspot and the average amount of their total Wi-Fi data usage attributable to that category, Android users (n = 1211)
  • Figure 16: Convergence of fibre access and mobile
  • Figure 17: Annual rate of growth, cellular data traffic, selected developed Asia-Pacific markets, 2013-2016
  • Figure 18: Cellular data traffic per head of population per month, developed emerging Asia-Pacific markets, 2014 and 2015
  • Figure 19: Cellular data traffic, developed Asia-Pacific, by market, 2013-2020
  • Figure 20: Cellular data traffic, by type, Hong Kong, 2015-2020
  • Figure 21: Cellular data traffic, by type, Japan, 2015-2020
  • Figure 22: Cellular data traffic, by type, South Korea, 2015-2020
  • Figure 23: Cellular data traffic, by type, Taiwan, 2015-2020
  • Figure 24: Regional breakdown used in this report
  • Figure 25: Regional breakdown used in this report
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