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通訊服務:全球趨勢·預測 2016-2021年

Communication Services: Worldwide Trends and Forecasts 2016-2021

出版商 Analysys Mason 商品編碼 362385
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 47 Slides
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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通訊服務:全球趨勢·預測 2016-2021年 Communication Services: Worldwide Trends and Forecasts 2016-2021
出版日期: 2016年07月04日 內容資訊: 英文 47 Slides



  • 通訊應用程式流量超過SMS的:2015年透過應用程式傳送了11兆以上的訊息
  • OTT訊息服務預計2021年前將有60%以上的人口利用
  • LINE和WeChat在發展中的平台提案將超越核心亞洲市場區域擴大
  • 智慧型手機持續在通訊設備上保持優勢
  • 業者的策略性支援各地區顯著不同
  • 業者將智慧型手機用戶轉移到VoLTE服務 - 預測在2021年前將有約24億用戶
  • 多數業者,為了基本性改善室內的服務範圍,而發展Wi-Fi通話
  • Google的參與促進了進階通訊服務,但利用率預計將持續偏低


  • 地區性SMS急劇減少,WhatsApp受惠、其他


  • OTT通訊應用程式日益暢銷,給業者帶來課題、其他


  • OTT服務獨佔通訊,業者無意競爭、其他


  • 社群·訊息服務成為對業者而言的成長重要促進要素、其他


  • 通訊預測將持續強力成長,對國內企業·全球性企業而言具有吸引力、其他


  • 許多業者已不參與通訊競爭,OTT壟斷市場、其他


  • 雖然OTT通訊比起其他地區較晚發展,但正在慢慢侵蝕SMS流量、其他


  • 流量轉移到OTT,SMS流量在許多國家都迎向巔峰、其他


著者·Analysys Mason



"The number of messages sent through apps overtook the number of SMS text messages in 2015, mainly due to strong adoption in Asia and Europe."

This report provides detailed forecasts for the communication services market worldwide. It provides an outlook for voice and messaging services provided by traditional service providers, and by so-called OTT service providers.

This report provides:

  • forecasts for operator services including VoLTE, Wi-Fi calling and IP messaging, as well as traditional voice and SMS services
  • quantification of the level of substitution from traditional services to OTT alternatives
  • user and traffic forecasts for communication services, including OTT voice and messaging
  • an outlook for multi-device usage across smartphones, tablets and PCs/laptops
  • detailed forecasts for 56 individual countries and 8 regions.


  • Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)
  • Developed Asia-Pacific (DVAP)
  • Emerging Asia-Pacific (EMAP)
  • Latin America (LATAM)
  • Middle East and North Africa (MENA)
  • North America (NA)
  • Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)
  • Western Europe (WE)

Key metrics

  • Non-operator/OTT services
    • Voice and messaging
    • Active user by device type
    • Outgoing traffic by device type
  • Operator traditional services
    • Handsets
    • Circuit-switched (CS) voice and SMS
    • Outgoing traffic
  • Operator IP-based services
    • Active users by service type:
      • VoLTE, Wi-Fi calling, IP messaging
    • Outgoing traffic by service type
      • VoLTE, Wi-Fi calling, IP messaging
    • Retail revenue
      • voice and messaging
      • average spend per user


Stephen Sale (Research Director) oversees Analysys Mason's consumer research and is also the lead analyst for the Future Comms and Media research programme. His primary areas of specialisation include next-generation communication services, OTT player strategies and mobile pricing. He also has extensive experience in analysing operator strategies and forecasting fixed and mobile service markets. Before joining Analysys Mason in 2004, Stephen worked in the industry on areas that include VoIP, next-generation service architecture and broadband access. He has a degree in economics and an interdisciplinary MRes from the University of London.

Michael Lane (Research Analyst) works for the Consumer Services research team, analysing the consumer surveys that underpin the Fixed Broadband and Multi-Play, Mobile Devices and Mobile Services programmes. His interests include statistical inference, forecast model fitting, auction theory and game theoretical approaches to problem solving. Michael holds a BSc in Mathematics from Imperial College London.

Table of Contents

  • 6.Worldwide trends
  • 7.Worldwide: Messaging apps have overtaken SMS in traffic - over 11 trillion messages were sent through apps in 2015
  • 8.Worldwide: OTT messaging services will be used by over 60% of the population by 2021
  • 9.Worldwide: The platform proposition advanced by LINE and WeChat is spreading beyond core Asian markets
  • 10.Worldwide: Smartphones will continue to dominate as communication devices
  • 11.Worldwide: Strategic responses from operators vary markedly in different regions
  • 12.Worldwide: Operators are migrating smartphone users to VoLTE services - nearly 2.4 billion subscribers are expected by 2021
  • 13.Worldwide: Many operators are rolling out Wi-Fi calling, principally to improve indoor coverage
  • 14.Worldwide: Google's involvement may boost Rich Communications Services, but usage is likely to remain low
  • 15.Western Europe
  • 16.Western Europe: SMS is in steep decline in the region, with WhatsApp as the main beneficiary
  • 17.Western Europe: Operators will remain dominant in voice, but will be severely challenged by alternatives
  • 18.Central and Eastern Europe
  • 19.Central and Eastern Europe: OTT messaging apps are increasing in popularity and will pose challenges to operators
  • 20.Central and Eastern Europe: VoIP has yet to gain significant traction
  • 21.Middle East and North Africa
  • 22.Middle East and North Africa: OTT services will dominate messaging and there is little appetite for operators to compete
  • 23.Middle East and North Africa: Legacy voice will continue to dominate, but VoIP will represent a persistent challenge
  • 24.Sub-Saharan Africa
  • 25.Sub-Saharan Africa: Social and messaging services will continue to be an important driver of growth for operators
  • 26.Sub-Saharan Africa: Operators will continue to benefit from strong growth in mobile voice
  • 27.Emerging Asia-Pacific
  • 28.Emerging Asia-Pacific: Continued strong growth is expected in the messaging market, attracting both local and global players
  • 29.Emerging Asia-Pacific: An extra one billion mobile users will be the principal driver of traffic growth over the forecast period
  • 30.Developed Asia-Pacific
  • 31.Developed Asia-Pacific: Many operators will no longer compete for messaging and OTTs will dominate the market
  • 32.Developed Asia-Pacific: Operators are hoping that innovation in voice will limit substitution to strong OTT players
  • 33.North America
  • 34.North America: OTT messaging is further behind than in other regions, but it will slowly eat into SMS traffic
  • 35.North America: Operator investment in new technologies will shift most voice traffic to operator IP by 2019
  • 36.Latin America
  • 37.Latin America: SMS traffic has peaked in some countries, as traffic has migrated to OTT
  • 38.Latin America: IP voice will have limited adoption in a growing market
  • 39.Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 40.Forecast outputs and definitions
  • 41.Forecast methodology
  • 42.About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 43.About the authors
  • 44.Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
  • 45.Research from Analysys Mason
  • 46.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Messages sent by message type worldwide, 2010-2015
  • Figure 2: Messages sent by message type and number of OTT messaging active users worldwide, 2010-2021
  • Figure 3: Percentage of OTT messaging users by device worldwide, 2010-2021
  • Figure 4: Percentage of OTT voice users by device worldwide, 2010-2021
  • Figure 5: Retail revenue for operator mobile voice services worldwide , 2015-2021
  • Figure 6: Retail revenue for SMS services worldwide, 2015-2021
  • Figure 7: Active users of VoLTE services by region, 2015-2021
  • Figure 8: Wi-Fi calling service users and traffic worldwide, 2015-2021
  • Figure 9: Traffic for all mobile operator messaging services and number of operator-provided IP messaging service users worldwide, 2015-2021
  • Figure 10: Messaging traffic, Western Europe, 2010-2021
  • Figure 11: Mobile voice traffic, Western Europe, 2010-2021
  • Figure 12: Messaging traffic, Central and Eastern Europe, 2010-2021
  • Figure 13: Mobile voice traffic, Central and Eastern Europe, 2010-2021
  • Figure 14: Messaging traffic, Middle East and North Africa, 2010-2021
  • Figure 15: Mobile voice traffic, Middle East and North Africa, 2010-2021,
  • Figure 16: Messaging traffic, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2010-2021
  • Figure 17: Mobile voice traffic, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2010-2021,
  • Figure 18: Messaging traffic, Emerging Asia-Pacific, 2010-2021
  • Figure 19: Mobile voice traffic, Emerging Asia-Pacific, 2010-2021
  • Figure 20: Messaging traffic, Developed Asia-Pacific, 2010-2021
  • Figure 21: Mobile voice traffic, Developed Asia-Pacific, 2010-2021
  • Figure 22: Messaging traffic, North America, 2010-2021
  • Figure 23: Mobile voice traffic, North America, 2010-2021
  • Figure 24: Messaging traffic, Latin America, 2010-2021
  • Figure 25: Mobile voice traffic, Latin America, 2010-2021
  • Figure 26: Overview of the main forecast outputs
  • Figure 27: Overview of the forecast methodology used in this report
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