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市場調查報告書

通訊服務:全球趨勢·預測 2017-2022年

Communication Services: Worldwide Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022

出版商 Analysys Mason 商品編碼 362385
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 24 Slides
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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通訊服務:全球趨勢·預測 2017-2022年 Communication Services: Worldwide Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022
出版日期: 2017年12月20日 內容資訊: 英文 24 Slides
簡介

本報告提供全球通訊服務市場相關調查,提供包含VoLTE,Wi-Fi通話,及IP通訊的業者服務,以及傳統語音·SMS服務的預測,從傳統服務轉換到OTT替代服務層級的定量化,包含OTT語音·通訊的通訊服務用戶·流量預測,智慧型手機·平板電腦·PC/筆記型電腦整體多設備利用展望,全球62個國家·8地區的詳細的預測等資訊。

本報告提供市場的詳細預測,傳統的服務供應商及OTT服務供應商所提供的語音·訊息服務的展望。

全球趨勢

  • 2016年IP消息流量佔SMS流量的八倍以上
  • 到2022年,全球75%的人口將使用OTT消息服務
  • Facebook正在採用與LINE和微信在亞洲國家率先推出的類似平台
  • 智慧型手機將繼續主導通信設備
  • 不同地區運營商的戰略反應差異很大
  • 運營商正在將智能手機用戶轉移到VoLTE服務 - 預計到2022年將有36億用戶
  • 許多運營商正在推出Wi-Fi通話,主要是為了改善室內覆蓋
  • 谷歌的參與推動了豐富的通信服務,但使用率可能仍然很低

西歐

  • SMS在該地區急劇下滑,WhatsApp為主要受益者、其他

中東歐

  • OTT消息應用程序越來越受歡迎,將給運營商帶來課題、其他

中東·北非

  • OTT服務獨佔通訊,業者競爭的胃口不大、其他

撒哈拉以南非洲

  • 社群·訊息服務將繼續成為運營商增長的重要動力、其他

新興亞太地區

  • 通訊市場預計將持續強勁增長,吸引本地和全球參與者、其他

先進亞太地區

  • 許多運營商將不再競爭通訊,OTT壟斷市場、其他

北美

  • OTT消息比其他地區進一步落後,但會慢慢削弱SMS流量的主導地位、其他

南美

  • 短信流量在一些國家已經達到頂峰,因為在更大的市場中流量已經轉移到了OTT、其他

預測手法·前提條件

著者·Analysys Mason

圖表

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目錄

"Over-the-top communication apps are, by far, the most-used communication platform worldwide; the volume of IP messaging traffic was more than eight times the size of SMS traffic in 2016."

This report provides:

  • forecasts for operator services including VoLTE, Wi-Fi calling and IP messaging, as well as traditional voice and SMS services
  • quantification of the level of substitution from traditional services to OTT alternatives
  • user and traffic forecasts for communication services, including OTT voice and messaging
  • an outlook for multi-device usage across smartphones, tablets and PCs/laptops
  • detailed forecasts for 62 individual countries and eight regions.
RegionsKey metrics
  • Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)
  • Developed Asia-Pacific (DVAP)
  • Emerging Asia-Pacific (EMAP)
  • Latin America (LATAM)
  • Middle East and North Africa (MENA)
  • North America (NA)
  • Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)
  • Western Europe (WE)
  • Non-operator/OTT services
    • Voice and messaging
    • Active user by device type
    • Outgoing traffic by device type
  • Operator traditional services
    • Handsets
    • Circuit-switched (CS) voice and SMS
    • Outgoing traffic
  • Operator IP-based services
    • Active users by service type:
      • VoLTE, Wi-Fi calling, IP messaging
    • Outgoing traffic by service type
      • VoLTE, Wi-Fi calling, IP messaging
    • Retail revenue
      • voice and messaging
      • average spend per user

Table of Contents

  • 6.Worldwide trends
  • 7.Worldwide: IP messaging traffic accounted for more than eight times the volume of SMS traffic in 2016
  • 8.Worldwide: OTT messaging services will be used by 75% of the global population by 2022
  • 9.Worldwide: Facebook is adopting a similar platform proposition to the one pioneered in Asian countries by LINE and WeChat
  • 10.Worldwide: The smartphone will continue to be the dominant communication device
  • 11.Worldwide: Strategic responses from operators vary significantly in different regions
  • 12.Worldwide: Operators are migrating smartphone users to VoLTE services -nearly 3.6 billion subscribers are expected by 2022
  • 13.Worldwide: Many operators are rolling out Wi-Fi calling, principally to improve indoor coverage
  • 14.Worldwide: Google's involvement has boosted Rich Communications Services, but usage is likely to remain low
  • 15.Western Europe
  • 16.Western Europe: SMS is in steep decline in the region, with WhatsApp as the main beneficiary
  • 17.Western Europe: Operators will remain dominant in voice, but will be severely challenged by alternatives
  • 18.Central and Eastern Europe
  • 19.Central and Eastern Europe: OTT messaging apps are increasing in popularity and will pose challenges to operators
  • 20.Central and Eastern Europe: VoIP has yet to gain significant traction
  • 21.Middle East and North Africa
  • 22.Middle East and North Africa: OTT services will dominate messaging and there is little appetite for operators to compete
  • 23.Middle East and North Africa: Legacy voice will continue to dominate, but VoIP will represent a persistent challenge
  • 24.Sub-Saharan Africa
  • 25.Sub-Saharan Africa: Social and messaging services will continue to be an important driver of growth for operators
  • 26.Sub-Saharan Africa: Operators will continue to benefit from strong growth in mobile voice
  • 27.Emerging Asia-Pacific
  • 28.Emerging Asia-Pacific: Continued strong growth is expected in the messaging market, attracting both local and global players
  • 29.Emerging Asia-Pacific: An extra one billion mobile users will be the principal driver of traffic growth over the forecast period
  • 30.Developed Asia-Pacific
  • 31.Developed Asia-Pacific: Many operators will no longer compete for messaging and OTTs will dominate the market
  • 32.Developed Asia-Pacific: Operators are hoping that innovation in voice will limit migration to strong OTT players
  • 33.North America
  • 34.North America: OTT messaging is further behind than in other regions, but it will slowly erode the dominance of SMS traffic
  • 35.North America: Operator investment in new technologies will shift most voice traffic to operator IP by 2019
  • 36.Latin America
  • 37.Latin America: SMS traffic has peaked in some countries, as traffic has migrated to OTT in the larger markets
  • 38.Latin America: traditional voice services are expected to remain dominant for the entire forecast period
  • 39.Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 40.Forecast outputs and definitions
  • 41.Forecast methodology
  • 42.About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 43.About the authors
  • 44.About Analysys Mason
  • 45.Research from Analysys Mason
  • 46.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Messages sent by message type worldwide, 2011-2016
  • Figure 2: Messages sent by message type and number of OTT messaging active users worldwide, 2011-2022
  • Figure 3: OTT messaging users by device worldwide, 2011-2022
  • Figure 4: OTT voice users by device worldwide, 2011-2022
  • Figure 5: Retail revenue for operator mobile voice services worldwide, 2016-
  • Figure 6: Retail revenue for SMS services worldwide, 2016-2022
  • Figure 7: Active users of VoLTE services by region, 2016-2022
  • Figure 8: Wi-Fi calling service users and traffic worldwide, 2015-2022
  • Figure 9: Traffic for all mobile operator messaging services and number of operator-provided IP messaging service users worldwide, 2011-2022
  • Figure 10: Messaging traffic, Western Europe, 2011-2022
  • Figure 11: Mobile voice traffic, Western Europe, 2011-2022
  • Figure 12: Messaging traffic, Central and Eastern Europe, 2011-2022
  • Figure 13: Mobile voice traffic, Central and Eastern Europe, 2011-2022
  • Figure 14: Messaging traffic, Middle East and North Africa, 2011-2022
  • Figure 15: Mobile voice traffic, Middle East and North Africa, 2011-2022
  • Figure 16: Messaging traffic, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2011-2022
  • Figure 17: Mobile voice traffic, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2011-2022
  • Figure 18: Messaging traffic, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2011-2022
  • Figure 19: Mobile voice traffic, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2011-2022
  • Figure 20: Messaging traffic, developed Asia-Pacific, 2011-2022
  • Figure 21: Mobile voice traffic, developed Asia-Pacific, 2011-2022
  • Figure 22: Messaging traffic, North America, 2011-2022
  • Figure 23: Mobile voice traffic, North America, 2011-2022
  • Figure 24: Messaging traffic, Latin America, 2011-2022
  • Figure 25: Mobile voice traffic, Latin America, 2011-2022
  • Figure 26: Overview of the main forecast outputs
  • Figure 27: Overview of the forecast methodology used in this report
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