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市場調查報告書

先進亞太地區的行動服務:趨勢與預測 2017-2022年

Mobile Services in Developed Asia-Pacific: Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022

出版商 Analysys Mason 商品編碼 358248
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 15 Slides
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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先進亞太地區的行動服務:趨勢與預測 2017-2022年 Mobile Services in Developed Asia-Pacific: Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022
出版日期: 2017年11月17日 內容資訊: 英文 15 Slides
簡介

先進亞太地區 (DVAP) 的通訊零售收益,預計在2015年到2021年間將以1.5%的年複合成長率 (CAGR) 增長。行動終端資料收益,對這個成長有莫大貢獻,一般認為通訊零售佔收益整體的佔有率將穩定成長,預計2021年前將達到到51%。

本報告涵括先進亞太地區的行動服務市場,提供市場趨勢分析,全球性背景,地區分析,主要4個國家分析,及近幾年的發展趨勢與業者舉措考察等系統性資訊。

目錄

摘要整理

全球趨勢

  • 預測期內服務收入將繼續增加,到2022年將達到1360億美元

地區趨勢

  • 收益·ARPU:行動終端資料及高智慧型手機普及率,預計繼續語音收益使之下降
  • 預計行動普及率:DVAP的活性行動SIM普及率的成長維持穩定性,2022年之前達到到124%
  • 行動連線數:4G行動連線數的佔有率預計到2019年持續增加,然後被調換到5G減少開始
  • 在智慧型手機·LTE:DVAP的終端總數裡(上)佔的智慧型手機的佔有率預計2016年達到到71%,2022年超過90%
  • 行動寬頻:DVAP的行動寬頻連線數,預計2022年之前達到到2,270萬,這些的99%成為4G/5G
  • 行動ARPU:DVAP地區的行動ARPU預測期間末之前每一月33美元慢慢成長
  • 資料·收益,按世代:行動數據流量預計新技術被支撐穩定成長,2022年達到到32.5EB

各國趨勢

  • 澳大利亞 - 行動:2016年終止費率下調將影響預測期間的服務收入增長
  • 香港行動:香港寬頻入場後行動市場競爭將加劇,導致ARPU下降
  • 日本 - 行動:以數據為中心的定價將推動數據收入增長,彌補語音和消息收入的下滑
  • 新加坡 - 行動:第四個MNO的入口將增加競爭,導致4G採用率的提高
  • 南韓 - 行動:預計到2022年連接4G / 5G; OTT使用量的增加將推動數據收入增長
  • 台灣 - 行動:無限數據計劃將導致每個連接的高數據使用量,但會對收入增長產生負面影響

預測手法·前提條件

著者·ANALYSYS 關於MASON

圖表清單

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目錄

"Handset data usage will be the main driver of growth in mobile service revenue, while Japanese and South Korean operators are the leaders in 5G deployment."

We expect mobile service revenue in developed Asia-Pacific will grow steadily due to operators' continual efforts to improve technology. We examine key trends and drivers in this report, and provide a comprehensive mobile telecoms market forecast for the developed Asia-Pacific region and for six individually modelled countries.

This report provides:

  • a 5-year forecast of 127 mobile KPIs for the developed Asia-Pacific region and for six key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile service, and for key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, which highlights similarities and differences between countries
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile operators.

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE

Countries modelled individually
  • Australia
  • Hong Kong
  • Japan
  • Singapore
  • South Korea
  • Taiwan

DATA COVERAGE

Mobile connections
  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone
Mobile revenue
  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Handset voice, messaging, data
Mobile ARPUc
  • SIMS, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data
Voice traffic
  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Cai Shiyu (Research Analyst) contributes to Analysys Mason's Asia-Pacific research programme, and is based in our Singapore office. He has been involved in data collection process as well as analysis of telecoms market trends in developed and emerging Asia-Pacific. Before joining Analysys Mason, he worked as an intern with business development division of SAP, and conducted qualitative and quantitative research on cloud computing market. Shiyu holds a Bachelor's degree in finance and operations management at NUS Business School, Singapore.

Table of Contents

  • 6.Executive summary
  • 7.Overall telecoms service revenue in developed Asia-Pacific will grow slowly, surpassing USD200 billion in 2022
  • 8.Worldwide trends
  • 9.Worldwide: Service revenue will continue to increase over the forecast period, reaching USD863 billion in 2022
  • 10.Regional trends
  • 11.Revenue and ARPU: Mobile handset data and high smartphone penetration will continue to depress voice revenue
  • 12.Mobile penetration: Active mobile SIM penetration growth in the DVAP region will remain steady, reaching 124% by 2022
  • 13.Mobile connections: The share of 4G mobile connections will continue to increase until 2019, and then start to decline as it is replaced by 5G
  • 14.Smartphones and LTE: The smartphone share of total handsets in DVAP reached 71% in 2016 and will surpass 90% in 2022
  • 15.Mobile broadband: The number of mobile broadband connections in DVAP will reach 22.7 million by 2022, 99% of these will be 4G/5G
  • 16.Mobile ARPU: mobile ARPU for the DVAP region will grow slowly overall to USD33 per month by the end of the forecast period
  • 17.Data and revenue by generation: Mobile data traffic will grow steadily, supported by new technologies, to reach 32.5EB in 2022
  • 18.Country-level trends
  • 19.Australia -mobile: Termination rate reduction in 2016 will affect service revenue growth in the forecast period
  • 20.Hong Kong -mobile: Competition will intensify in the mobile market after HKBN's entrance, resulting in a decline in ARPU
  • 21.Japan -mobile: Data-centric pricing will drive data revenue growth, compensating for voice and messaging revenue declines
  • 22.Singapore -mobile: The entrance of a fourth MNO will increase competition and lead to a higher rate of 4G adoption
  • 23.South Korea -mobile: Connections are expected to be on 4G/5G by 2022; increasing OTT usage will drive data revenue growth
  • 24.Taiwan -mobile: Unlimited data plans will lead to high data usage per connection, but will negatively affect revenue growth
  • 25.About the author and Analysys Mason
  • 26.About the author
  • 27.Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
  • 28.Research from Analysys Mason
  • 29.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), developed Asia-Pacific, 2012-2022
  • Figure 2: Mobile service revenue in developed Asia-Pacific and worldwide, -2022
  • Figure 3: Telecoms retail mobile revenue by service type, and mobile ARPU, developed Asia-Pacific, 2012-2022
  • Figure 4: Telecoms mobile retail revenue by service type, total mobile service revenue and growth rates, developed Asia-Pacific, 2016-2022
  • Figure 5: Connections by type, and growth rates, developed Asia-Pacific, -2022
  • Figure 6: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), developed Asia-Pacific, 2012-2022
  • Figure 7: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G, 4G and 5G's share of connections, developed Asia-Pacific, 2012-2022
  • Figure 8: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and 4G/5G's share of total connections (excluding M2M), developed Asia-Pacific, 2016 and 2022
  • Figure 9: Mobile broadband connections by screen size and technology, developed Asia-Pacific, 2012-2022
  • Figure 10: Mobile ARPU by country, developed Asia-Pacific, 2012-2022
  • Figure 11: Mobile service revenue and ARPU by technology, developed Asia-Pacific, 2012-2022
  • Figure 12: Data traffic and revenue per megabyte, developed Asia-Pacific, -2022
  • Figure 13: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Australia, 2012-2022
  • Figure 14: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Australia, 2012-2022
  • Figure 15: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Australia
  • Figure 16: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Hong Kong, 2012-2022
  • Figure 17: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Hong Kong, 2012-2022
  • Figure 18: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Hong Kong
  • Figure 19: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Japan, 2012-2022
  • Figure 20: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Japan, 2012-2022
  • Figure 21: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Japan
  • Figure 22: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Singapore, 2012-2022
  • Figure 23: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Singapore, 2012-2022
  • Figure 24: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Singapore
  • Figure 25: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, South Korea, 2012-2022
  • Figure 26: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, South Korea, 2012-2022
  • Figure 27: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions,South Korea
  • Figure 28: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Taiwan,2012-2022
  • Figure 29: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Taiwan, 2012-2022
  • Figure 30: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Taiwan
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