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市場調查報告書

先進亞太地區的行動服務:趨勢與預測 2015-2020年

Mobile Services in Developed Asia-Pacific: Trends and Forecasts 2015-2020

出版商 Analysys Mason 商品編碼 358248
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 34 Slides
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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先進亞太地區的行動服務:趨勢與預測 2015-2020年 Mobile Services in Developed Asia-Pacific: Trends and Forecasts 2015-2020
出版日期: 2016年05月23日 內容資訊: 英文 34 Slides
簡介

先進亞太地區 (DVAP) 的通訊零售收益預計將達到2060億美元,2010-2014年以1%的年複合成長率成長。儘管市場環境艱難,2014-2020預測仍將以同樣的比例持續成長。DVAP各國業者在網路發展、技術進步及服務提供的創新領導業界。同時也順利地轉換到4G,預測4G將是2020年DVAP的主要技術世代。

本報告涵蓋先進亞太地區的行動服務市場,提供您市場趨勢分析,全球性背景,地區分析,主要4國分析,及近幾年的發展趨勢與業者的倡議考察等系統性資訊。

目錄

摘要整理

全球趨勢

  • DVAP市場預料將比歐洲成長快速,但北美持有最大的零售收益
  • 在行動普及率,DVAP,EMAP及SSA地區的服務採用促進下,預測在2020年前將擴大到108%
  • LTE佔連網的佔有率預計以NA (92%) ·DVAP (84%) 最高
  • 成熟地區的競爭,OTT服務及匯聚綁定套組對ARPU產生負面壓力

地區趨勢

  • 不同地區最新技術及網路升級的影響下,促進行動服務收益的成長
  • 在所有DVAP國家,SIM的人口普及率皆超過100%,香港最高,為200%以上
  • 4G預測到2020年將佔地區行動連線的大部分,業者是技術進步的先鋒
  • 預計FTTH/B及LTE將支配DVAP,商用5G服務預測在2020年前將開始
  • 在4G服務及合理價格的設備需求促進下,智慧型手機預測到2020年前將佔地區終端的87%
  • 行動ARPU在價格壓力和配套服務價格的上升之平衡下,將保持穩定
  • 智慧型手機普及率的上升及4G的高可用性,預計將推動2020年末資料APRU到23美金

各國趨勢

  • 澳洲:4G預計將佔活性SIM的46.1%,佔有率持續擴大
  • 香港:由於4G連線數持續成長,預計業者將重視進階通訊服務的提供
  • 新加坡:智慧型手機普及率·契約的市場佔有率各將擴大到71.5%和60.5%
  • 韓國:4G加入數2012年以後將成為2倍

預測手法·前提條件

關於著者·ANALYSYS MASON

圖表清單

目錄

"Handset data, broadband and M2M will be the fastest-growing mobile services in developed Asia-Pacific."

Telecoms retail revenue in developed Asia-Pacific (DVAP) reached USD206 billion, growing at a CAGR of 1% during 2010-2014, and will continue to grow at the same rate during 2014-2020, despite challenging market conditions.

Operators in DVAP countries lead the industry in terms of network deployment, technology advancement and service offering innovation. The migration to 4G is advancing smoothly and 4G will be the major technology generation in DVAP in 2020.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • commentary and trend analysis to support our 5-year forecast for DVAP
  • worldwide context, regional analysis and specific country commentary for four key countries: Australia, Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea
  • insights into recent developments and operator inititatives in the mobile services market in DVAP
  • forecasting informed by on-the-ground market experts from our Research and Consulting divisions, and external interviews.

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE

Countries modelled individuallyDetailed country commentary
  • Australia
  • Hong Kong
  • Japan
  • Singapore
  • South Korea
  • Taiwan
  • Australia
  • Hong Kong
  • Singapore
  • South Korea

DATA COVERAGE

Mobile connections
  • Handset, mobile broadband1, M2M2
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G (LTE)
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone
Mobile revenue
  • Service3, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband1, M2M2
  • Handset voice, messaging, data
Mobile ARPU
  • SIMS, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data
Voice traffic
  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

1Includes USB modem, and mid- and large-screen, though not handset-based data.

2M2M connections and revenue figures include mobile services only.

3Service revenue is the sum of retail and wholesale revenue.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Harsh Upadhyay (Analyst) Harsh contributes to Analysys Mason's Asia-Pacific research programme, and is based in our Singapore office. His research focuses on market tracking, competitive assessment, data forecasting, next-generation services and consumer behaviour analysis in the Asia-Pacific telecoms market. He also supports consulting projects and presents at industry events. Harsh's experience in the TMT industry is diverse, and he has a detailed understanding of the telecoms market in the region. He has previously worked with Frost & Sullivan and IDC as an analyst and consultant, and his clients include leading ICT firms and government bodies. Harsh holds a Master's and Bachelor's degree in Business Management from India.

Table of Contents

  • 5. Executive summary
  • 6. Executive Summary
  • 7. Worldwide trends
  • 8. Worldwide: DVAP markets will grow faster than those in Europe, but North America will have the largest retail revenue
  • 9. Worldwide: Mobile penetration will increase to 108% by 2020, driven by service take-up in the DVAP, EMAP and SSA regions
  • 10. Worldwide: LTE's share of connections will be highest in NA (92%) and DVAP (84%)
  • 11. Worldwide: Competition in mature regions, OTT services and converged bundles will have a downward pressure on ARPU
  • 12. Regional trends
  • 13. DVAP: The region's embrace of the latest technology and network upgrades will drive mobile service revenue growth
  • 14. DVAP: SIM population penetration is over 100% in all countries in DVAP, and is highest in Hong Kong - at more than 200%
  • 15. DVAP: 4G will account for most of the region's mobile connections in 2020, and operators here are pioneers in technology advancement
  • 16. DVAP: FTTH/B and LTE will dominate in DVAP, and commercial 5G services are expected to launch by 2020
  • 17. DVAP: Smartphones will account for 87% of the region's handsets by 2020, driven by the demand for 4G services and affordable devices
  • 18. DVAP: Mobile ARPU will remain stable due to balancing of price pressures and increasing bundled service value
  • 19. DVAP: Increasing smartphone penetration and high 4G availability will drive handset data ARPU up to USD23 in 2020
  • 20. Country-level trends
  • 21. Australia: 4G accounted for 46.1% of active SIMs, and its share will continue to grow
  • 22. Hong Kong: As the number of 4G connections continues to grow, operators will focus on providing rich communication services
  • 23. Singapore: Smartphone penetration and contract penetration grew to 71.5% and 60.5%, respectively
  • 24. South Korea: The number of 4G subscribers has more than doubled since 2012; MVNOs have gained the most from net adds
  • 25. Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 26. We have a disciplined process of forecasting; our on-the-ground analysts and consultants collaborate closely to assess market dynamics
  • 27. Our forecasts are informed by primary and secondary research for data collection, a rigorous methodology and our analysis of external drivers
  • 28. A robust and comparable set of historical data is the starting point for our forecasts; this involves three main activities
  • 29. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 30. About the authors
  • 31. About Analysys Mason
  • 32. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 33. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), developed Asia-Pacific, 2010-2020
  • Figure 2: CAGRs for fixed and mobile retail revenue (2014-2020) and market size by total retail revenue (2020), by region, worldwide
  • Figure 3: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), worldwide, 2010-2020
  • Figure 4: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), worldwide, 2014 and 2020
  • Figure 5: Mobile ARPU by region and worldwide, 2010-2020
  • Figure 6: Telecoms retail mobile revenue by service type and mobile ARPU, developed Asia-Pacific, 2010-2020
  • Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, developed Asia-Pacific, 2014-2020
  • Figure 8: Connections by type, and growth rates, developed Asia-Pacific, 2014-2020
  • Figure 9: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), developed Asia-Pacific, 2010-2020
  • Figure 10: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G and 4G's share of connections, developed Asia-Pacific, 2010-2020
  • Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation and fixed broadband household penetration, by country, developed Asia-Pacific, 2020
  • Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), developed Asia-Pacific, 2014 and 2020
  • Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by country, developed Asia-Pacific, 2010-2020
  • Figure 14: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, developed Asia-Pacific, 2010-2020
  • Figure 15: Mobile ARPU by type, developed Asia-Pacific, 2010-2020
  • Figure 16: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, developed Asia-Pacific
  • Figure 17: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Australia, 2014-2020
  • Figure 18: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Hong Kong, 2014-2020
  • Figure 19: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Singapore, 2014-2020
  • Figure 20: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, South Korea, 2014-2020
  • Figure 21: Data, research principles and external factors that inform our forecasting methodology
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