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市場調查報告書

亞太已開發地區的行動服務:趨勢與預測 2016-2021年

Mobile Services in Developed Asia-Pacific: Trends and Forecasts 2016-2021

出版商 Analysys Mason 商品編碼 358248
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 34 Slides
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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亞太已開發地區的行動服務:趨勢與預測 2016-2021年 Mobile Services in Developed Asia-Pacific: Trends and Forecasts 2016-2021
出版日期: 2017年01月19日 內容資訊: 英文 34 Slides
簡介

預估亞太已開發地區 (DVAP) 的通信零售收益,將於2015年至2021年以1.5%的CAGR (複合年均成長率) 成長。來自行動裝置數據的收益將對其成長有極大貢獻,預估於整體通信零售收益中的佔比將穩定成長,並於2021年達到51%。

本報告討論亞太先進地區的行動服務市場,分析市場趨勢、全球背景、地區分析、主要4國分析,彙整近年發展趨勢與營運商的創製考察等系統性情報。

目錄

摘要整理

全球趨勢

  • 在網路展開的基礎建設投資推動下,預估行動和固定部門的收益將增加
  • 行動普及率:EMAP與SSA的行動需求及快速普及將提升全球普及率
  • 智慧型手機與4G/5G:智慧型手機佔全球裝置的69%,預估NA及WE的普及率將最高
  • 行動ARPU:高競爭水準及OTT服務替代,將持續給予ARPU向下壓力

地區趨勢

  • DVAP:行動裝置數據收益增加,在預測期中對通信收益成長至關重要
  • 行動普及率:SIM的人口普及率在所有DVAP國家中將穩定於平均123%
  • 行動連接:2G正階段性淘汰,4G及5G將在2021年佔整體行動連接的95%
  • 地區覆蓋:至2021年4G/5G將佔行動連接的90%,FTTB家庭普及率將達到93%
  • 智慧型手機和4G/5G:應用程式的利用增加及轉移至4G/5G將提升智慧型手機普及率
  • 行動ARPU:DVAP之行動ARPU將維持穩定成長,預測期結束將達每月35美元
  • DVAP-行動:2021年行動連接整體的95%將使用4G/5G技術

各國趨勢

  • 澳洲:基礎建設開發有助4G導入和零售收益成長
  • 香港:儘管服務升級,行動普及率卻下降,總服務收益下降至37億美元
  • 新加坡:第4家行動營運商的投入預估將使行動市場競爭更激烈
  • 韓國:速度升級及新費用方案將在預測期中帶來服務收益成長

預測方法和前提條件

關於作者和ANALYSYS MASON

圖表列表

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目錄

"Mobile penetration is high in developed Asia-Pacific, thanks to a well-developed and advanced infrastructure; the high penetration of mobile apps and OTT services in the region is driving up demand for mobile data."

Total telecoms retail revenue in developed Asia-Pacific (DVAP) will grow at a CAGR of 1.5% between 2015 and 2021. Revenue from mobile handset data will be the main contributor to this growth, and its share of total telecoms retail revenue will grow steadily to reach 51% in 2021.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • commentary and trend analysis to support our 5-year forecast for developed Asia-Pacific
  • an outlook for technology improvements and infrastructure developments
  • forecasts that are informed by on-the-ground market experts from our Research and Consulting divisions, and external interviews.

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE

Countries modelled individuallyDetailed country commentary
  • Australia
  • Hong Kong
  • Japan
  • Singapore
  • South Korea
  • Taiwan
  • Australia
  • Hong Kong
  • Singapore
  • South Korea

DATA COVERAGE

Mobile connections
  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G (LTE)
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone
Mobile revenue
  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Handset voice, messaging, data
Mobile ARPUc
  • SIMS, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data
Voice traffic
  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Kerem Arsal (Principal Analyst) is the lead analyst for Analysys Mason's Mobile Services research programme; he also co-leads the Convergence Strategies research programme. His work involves in-depth coverage of issues such as customer retention, mobile datapricing, MVNO strategies, and the impact of fixed-mobile convergence on telecom markets. Previously, Kerem was a research manager at Pyramid Research, where he was responsible for setting the thematic research agenda across multiple tracks and regions. He also headed numerous projects around operator strategies, as well as commercialisation of, and demand assessment for, new products in the consumerand enterprise segments. Kerem has a PhD in Information Systems from Boston University.

Cai Shiyu (Research Analyst) Shiyu contributes to Analysys Mason's Asia-Pacific research programme, and is based in our Singapore office. He had been involved in data collection process as well as analysis of telecoms market trends in developed and emerging Asia-Pacific. Before joining Analysys Mason, he worked as an intern with business development division of SAP, and conducted qualitative and quantitative research on cloud computing market. Shiyu holds a Bachelor's degree in finance and operations management at NUSBusiness School, Singapore.

Table of Contents

  • 5.Executive summary
  • 6.Executive summary
  • 7.Worldwide trends
  • 8.Worldwide: Revenue will increase in the mobile and fixed segments driven by infrastructure investments in network roll-out
  • 9.Mobile penetration: Demand for, and the fast pace of take-up of, mobile in EMAP and SSA will boost global penetration
  • 10.Smartphones and 4G/5G: Smartphones will account for 69% of handsets worldwide, and take-up will be highest in NA and WE
  • 11.Mobile ARPU: The high level of competition and substitution by OTT services will continue to put downward pressure on ARPU
  • 12.Regional trends
  • 13.DVAP: Mobile handset data revenue increase will be crucial to telecoms revenue growth in forecast period
  • 14.Mobile penetration: SIM population penetration rates across all DVAP countries will stabilise at an average of 123%
  • 15.Mobile connections: 2G is in the process of being phased out; 4G and 5G will account for 95% of all mobile connections in 2021
  • 16.Geographical coverage: By 2021, 4G/5G will account for 90% of mobile connections; FTTB household penetration will reach 93%
  • 17.Smartphones and 4G/5G: increasing usage of apps and the migration to 4G/5G will increase smartphone penetration
  • 18.Mobile ARPU: Mobile ARPU will maintain steady growth in DVAP, reaching USD35 per month by the end of the forecast period
  • 19. DVAP - mobile: 4G/5G technology will be used by 95% of all mobile connections in 2021
  • 20. Country-level trends
  • 21. Australia: Infrastructure developments will help with 4G adoption and retail revenue growth
  • 22. Hong Kong: Total service revenue will decline to USD3.7 billion, due to drops in mobile penetration, despite service upgrades
  • 23. Singapore: The entry of a fourth mobile operator is expected to increase competition in the mobile market
  • 24. South Korea: Speed upgrades and new tariff plans will lead to service revenue growth during the forecast period
  • 25. Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 26. We have a disciplined process of forecasting; our on-the-ground analysts and consultants collaborate closely to assess market dynamics
  • 27. Our forecasts are informed by primary and secondary research for data collection, a rigorous methodology and our analysis of external drivers
  • 28. A robust and comparable set of historical data is the starting point for our forecasts; this involves three main activities
  • About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • About the authors
  • About Analysys Mason
  • Research from Analysys Mason
  • Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), developed Asia-Pacific, 2011-2021
  • Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by type and country, worldwide, -2021
  • Figure 3: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding IoT), worldwide, -2021
  • Figure 4: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and 4G/5G's share of total connections (excluding IoT), worldwide, 2015 and 2021
  • Figure 5: Mobile ARPU (excluding IoT) by region and worldwide, 2011-2021
  • Figure 6: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), developed Asia-Pacific, 2011-2021
  • Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, developed Asia-Pacific, 2015-2021
  • Figure 8: Connections by type, and growth rates, developed Asia-Pacific, 2015-
  • Figure 9: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding IoT), developed Asia-Pacific, 2011-2021
  • Figure 10: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding IoT), and 3G, 4G and 5G's share of connections, developed Asia-Pacific, 2011-2021
  • Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation and NGA's share of fixed broadband connections, by country, developed Asia-Pacific, 2021
  • Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and 4G/5G's share of total connections (excluding IoT), developed Asia-Pacific, 2015 and 2021
  • Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by country, developed Asia-Pacific, 2011-2021
  • Figure 14: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, developed Asia-Pacific, 2011-2021
  • Figure 15: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, developed Asia-Pacific, 2011-20211
  • Figure 16: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, developed Asia-Pacific
  • Figure 17: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Australia, 2015-2021
  • Figure 18: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Hong Kong, 2015-2021
  • Figure 19: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Singapore, 2015-2021
  • Figure 20: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, South Korea, 2015-2021
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