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亞太新興地區的行動服務:趨勢與預測 2016-2021年

Mobile Services in Emerging Asia-Pacific: Trends and Forecasts 2016-2021

出版商 Analysys Mason 商品編碼 357202
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 34 Slides
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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亞太新興地區的行動服務:趨勢與預測 2016-2021年 Mobile Services in Emerging Asia-Pacific: Trends and Forecasts 2016-2021
出版日期: 2017年01月20日 內容資訊: 英文 34 Slides


本報告討論亞太新興地區 (EMAP) 的行動服務,分析全球市場背景、地區分析、以及主要4國 (印度、印尼、馬來西亞、泰國) 的趨勢,彙整EMAP行動服務市場的近年發展趨勢與營運商的創製考察、未來市場預測等。




  • 在網路展開的基礎建設投資推動下,預估行動和固定部門的收益將增加
  • 行動普及率:EMAP與SSA的行動需求及快速普及將提升全球普及率
  • 智慧型手機與4G/5G:智慧型手機佔全球裝置的69%,預估NA及WE的普及率將最高
  • 行動ARPU:高競爭水準及OTT服務替代,將持續給予ARPU向下壓力


  • EMAP (亞太新興地區):因OTT服務及4G轉移的高行動裝置數據使用率將推動通信收益增加
  • 行動普及率:EMAP消費者將慢慢由multi-SIM轉移至single-SIM
  • 行動連接:4G將強勁成長,預估在預測期結束時將佔EMAP全體行動連接數的50%
  • 地區覆蓋:4G國家的寬頻創製及發展將提升連接數
  • 智慧型手機和LTE:隨著LTE普及率提升,預估2021年EMAP的智慧型手機普及率將成長至整體裝置的69%
  • 行動ARPU:EMAP因競爭加劇的價格壓力,預估將降低整體ARPU
  • EMAP-行動:劇烈競爭的預付領域的普及擴大,將減少行動ARPU收益


  • 印度:Reliance Jio投入LTE市場將使競爭更激烈,預估將令4G連接數增加
  • 印尼:營運商大量投資服務升級將加速4G導入
  • 馬來西亞:競爭劇烈化將使預測期的ARPU及服務收益減少
  • 泰國:轉移至4G服務有助預測期的數據收益增加






"Total service revenue in emerging Asia-Pacific will grow rapidly, driven by network coverage expansion and service upgrades."

Growth in mobile data, fixed broadband and IPTV revenue will compensate for a decline in voice and messaging revenue in emerging Asia-Pacific during the forecast period. Total telecoms retail revenue will reach USD319 billion in 2021.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • commentary and trend analysis to support our 5-year forecast for emerging Asia-Pacific
  • an outlook for technology improvements and infrastructure developments
  • forecasts that are informed by on-the-ground market experts from our Research and Consulting divisions, and external interviews.


Regions modelled

  • India
  • Indonesia
  • Malaysia
  • Thailand

Countries modelled individually

  • Bangladesh
  • China
  • India
  • Indonesia
  • Malaysia
  • Myanmar
  • Pakistan
  • Philippines
  • Sri Lanka
  • Thailand
  • Vietnam


Mobile connections
  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G (LTE)
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone
Mobile revenue
  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Handset voice, messaging, data
Mobile ARPU
  • SIMS, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data
Voice traffic
  • Outgoing minutes, MoU


Kerem Arsal (Principal Analyst) is the lead analyst for Analysys Mason's Mobile Services research programme; he also co-leads the Convergence Strategies research programme. His work involves in-depth coverage of issues such as customer retention, mobile datapricing, MVNO strategies, and the impact of fixed-mobile convergence on telecom markets. Previously, Kerem was a research manager at Pyramid Research, where he was responsible for setting the thematic research agenda across multiple tracks and regions. He also headed numerous projects around operator strategies, as well as commercialisation of, and demand assessment for, new products in the consumerand enterprise segments. Kerem has a PhD in Information Systems from Boston University.

Cai Shiyu (Research Analyst) Shiyu contributes to Analysys Mason's Asia-Pacific research programme, and is based in our Singapore office. He had been involved in data collection process as well as analysis of telecoms market trends in developed and emerging Asia-Pacific. Before joining Analysys Mason, he worked as an intern with business development division of SAP, and conducted qualitative and quantitative research on cloud computing market. Shiyu holds a Bachelor's degree in finance and operations management at NUSBusiness School, Singapore.

Table of Contents

  • 5.Executive summary
  • 6.Executive summary
  • 7.Worldwide trends
  • 8.Worldwide: Revenue will increase in the mobile and fixed segments driven by infrastructure investments in network roll-out
  • 9.Mobile penetration: Demand for, and the fast pace of take-up of, mobile in EMAP and SSA will boost global penetration
  • 10.Smartphones and 4G/5G: Smartphones will account for 69% of handsets worldwide, and take-up will be highest in NA and WE
  • 11.Mobile ARPU: The high level of competition and substitution by OTT services will continue to put downward pressure on ARPU
  • 12.Regional trends
  • 13.EMAP: Telecoms revenue increase will be driven by high mobile handset data usage due to OTT services and 4G migration
  • 14.Mobile penetration: Consumers in emerging Asia-Pacific countries will slowly move from multi-SIM to single-SIM behaviour
  • 15.Mobile connections: 4G will grow strongly, accounting for 50% of all mobile connections in EMAP by the end of the forecast period
  • 16.Geographical coverage: National broadband initiatives and advancements in 4G are driving up the number of connections
  • 17.Smartphones and LTE: Smartphone penetration will grow to 69% of all handsets in EMAP by 2021 as LTE penetration increases
  • 18.Mobile ARPU: Pricing pressure due to increasing competition in EMAP will bring down the overall ARPU
  • 19. EMAP -mobile: Increasing penetration in the highly competitive prepaid segment will reduce mobile ARPU revenue
  • 20. Country-level trends
  • 21. India: Reliance Jio's entry into the LTE market will increase competition and boost the number of 4G connections
  • 22. Indonesia: Operators are investing heavily in service upgrades, which will accelerate 4G adoption
  • 23. Malaysia: Intensified competition will lead to a decline in ARPU and service revenue during the forecast
  • 24. Thailand: Migration to 4G services will help drive an increase in data revenue during the forecast period
  • 25. Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 26. We have a disciplined process of forecasting; our on-the-ground analysts and consultants collaborate closely to assess market dynamics
  • 27. Our forecasts are informed by primary and secondary research for data collection, a rigorous methodology and our analysis of external drivers
  • 28. A robust and comparable set of historical data is the starting point for our forecasts; this involves three main activities
  • 29. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 30. About the authors
  • 31. About Analysys Mason
  • 32. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 33. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), emerging Asia-Pacific, 2011-2021
  • Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by type and country, worldwide, 2015-2021
  • Figure 3: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding IoT), worldwide, 2011-2021
  • Figure 4: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and 4G/5G's share of total connections (excluding IoT), worldwide, 2015 and 2021
  • Figure 5: Mobile ARPU (excluding IoT) by region and worldwide, 2011-2021
  • Figure 6: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), emerging Asia-Pacific, 2011-2021
  • Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2015-2021
  • Figure 8: Connections by type, and growth rates, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2015-2021
  • Figure 9: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding IoT), emerging Asia-Pacific, 2011-2021
  • Figure 10: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding IoT), and 3G, 4G and 5G's share of connections, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2011-2021
  • Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation and NGA's share of fixed broadband connections, by country, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2021
  • Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding IoT), emerging Asia-Pacific, 2015 and 2021
  • Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by country, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2011-2021
  • Figure 14: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2011-2021
  • Figure 15: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2011-2021
  • Figure 16: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, emerging Asia-Pacific
  • Figure 17: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, India, 2015-2021
  • Figure 18: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Indonesia, 2015-2021
  • Figure 19: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Malaysia, 2015-2021
  • Figure 20: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Thailand, 2015-2021
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