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市場調查報告書

新興亞太地區的行動服務:趨勢與預測 2015-2020年

Mobile Services in Emerging Asia-Pacific: Trends and Forecasts 2016-2021

出版商 Analysys Mason 商品編碼 357202
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 34 Slides
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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新興亞太地區的行動服務:趨勢與預測 2015-2020年 Mobile Services in Emerging Asia-Pacific: Trends and Forecasts 2016-2021
出版日期: 2017年01月20日 內容資訊: 英文 34 Slides
簡介

新興亞太地區 (EMAP) 的通訊零售收益,從上年度以來上升了3.1%,2014年達到了2,690億美元。這個收益預計從2014年到2020年將以2.9%的年複合成長率 (CAGR) 成長,預計將低過從2010年到2014年歷史性低的年複合成長率7.3%。

本報告涵括新興亞太地區 (EMAP) 的行動服務,彙整全球市場背景,地區分析,及4個主要國家 (印度,印尼,馬來西亞及泰國) 的趨勢分析,EMAP的行動服務市場上近幾年的發展趨勢·業者倡議的考察,今後的市場預測等資料,為您概述為以下內容。

目錄

摘要整理

全球趨勢

  • 新興亞太地區 (EMAP) ,行動零售收益接近北美,最成長最快的市場之一
  • 行動普及率預測將受到DVAP,EMAP,及SSA地區開始提供服務而推動,到2020年增加108%
  • EMAP的智慧型手機普及率反映全球平均
  • 業者間的競爭,OTT服務及匯聚綁定套組受到ARPU的下滑的壓力

地區趨勢

  • 終端資料,寬頻及M2M地區成為成長快的行動服務
  • 擁有複數的SIM·設備預計將有助於行動普及率的成長,到2020年之前將達到102%
  • 在2020年中持續佔有率最高的4G
  • 中國4G連接的佔有率最高,馬來西亞主導寬頻普及率、其他

各國趨勢

  • 印度:3G服務範圍的擴大,預計關稅的削減,及合理的價格的設備可用性將促進市場成長
  • 印尼:業者為了推進資料收益,重視更佳4G功能的建立
  • 馬來西亞:業者應該削減用戶的客戶流失開始行銷宣傳活動
  • 泰國:由於擁有複數設備、第2SIM卡而擴大行動普及率

預測手法·前提條件

關於著者·ANALYSYS MASON

本網頁內容可能與最新版本有所差異。詳細情況請與我們聯繫。

目錄

"Total service revenue in emerging Asia-Pacific will grow rapidly, driven by network coverage expansion and service upgrades."

Growth in mobile data, fixed broadband and IPTV revenue will compensate for a decline in voice and messaging revenue in emerging Asia-Pacific during the forecast period. Total telecoms retail revenue will reach USD319 billion in 2021.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • commentary and trend analysis to support our 5-year forecast for emerging Asia-Pacific
  • an outlook for technology improvements and infrastructure developments
  • forecasts that are informed by on-the-ground market experts from our Research and Consulting divisions, and external interviews.

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE

Regions modelled

  • India
  • Indonesia
  • Malaysia
  • Thailand

Countries modelled individually

  • Bangladesh
  • China
  • India
  • Indonesia
  • Malaysia
  • Myanmar
  • Pakistan
  • Philippines
  • Sri Lanka
  • Thailand
  • Vietnam

DATA COVERAGE

Mobile connections
  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G (LTE)
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone
Mobile revenue
  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Handset voice, messaging, data
Mobile ARPU
  • SIMS, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data
Voice traffic
  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Kerem Arsal (Principal Analyst) is the lead analyst for Analysys Mason's Mobile Services research programme; he also co-leads the Convergence Strategies research programme. His work involves in-depth coverage of issues such as customer retention, mobile datapricing, MVNO strategies, and the impact of fixed-mobile convergence on telecom markets. Previously, Kerem was a research manager at Pyramid Research, where he was responsible for setting the thematic research agenda across multiple tracks and regions. He also headed numerous projects around operator strategies, as well as commercialisation of, and demand assessment for, new products in the consumerand enterprise segments. Kerem has a PhD in Information Systems from Boston University.

Cai Shiyu (Research Analyst) Shiyu contributes to Analysys Mason's Asia-Pacific research programme, and is based in our Singapore office. He had been involved in data collection process as well as analysis of telecoms market trends in developed and emerging Asia-Pacific. Before joining Analysys Mason, he worked as an intern with business development division of SAP, and conducted qualitative and quantitative research on cloud computing market. Shiyu holds a Bachelor's degree in finance and operations management at NUSBusiness School, Singapore.

Table of Contents

  • 5.Executive summary
  • 6.Executive summary
  • 7.Worldwide trends
  • 8.Worldwide: Revenue will increase in the mobile and fixed segments driven by infrastructure investments in network roll-out
  • 9.Mobile penetration: Demand for, and the fast pace of take-up of, mobile in EMAP and SSA will boost global penetration
  • 10.Smartphones and 4G/5G: Smartphones will account for 69% of handsets worldwide, and take-up will be highest in NA and WE
  • 11.Mobile ARPU: The high level of competition and substitution by OTT services will continue to put downward pressure on ARPU
  • 12.Regional trends
  • 13.EMAP: Telecoms revenue increase will be driven by high mobile handset data usage due to OTT services and 4G migration
  • 14.Mobile penetration: Consumers in emerging Asia-Pacific countries will slowly move from multi-SIM to single-SIM behaviour
  • 15.Mobile connections: 4G will grow strongly, accounting for 50% of all mobile connections in EMAP by the end of the forecast period
  • 16.Geographical coverage: National broadband initiatives and advancements in 4G are driving up the number of connections
  • 17.Smartphones and LTE: Smartphone penetration will grow to 69% of all handsets in EMAP by 2021 as LTE penetration increases
  • 18.Mobile ARPU: Pricing pressure due to increasing competition in EMAP will bring down the overall ARPU
  • 19. EMAP -mobile: Increasing penetration in the highly competitive prepaid segment will reduce mobile ARPU revenue
  • 20. Country-level trends
  • 21. India: Reliance Jio's entry into the LTE market will increase competition and boost the number of 4G connections
  • 22. Indonesia: Operators are investing heavily in service upgrades, which will accelerate 4G adoption
  • 23. Malaysia: Intensified competition will lead to a decline in ARPU and service revenue during the forecast
  • 24. Thailand: Migration to 4G services will help drive an increase in data revenue during the forecast period
  • 25. Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 26. We have a disciplined process of forecasting; our on-the-ground analysts and consultants collaborate closely to assess market dynamics
  • 27. Our forecasts are informed by primary and secondary research for data collection, a rigorous methodology and our analysis of external drivers
  • 28. A robust and comparable set of historical data is the starting point for our forecasts; this involves three main activities
  • 29. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 30. About the authors
  • 31. About Analysys Mason
  • 32. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 33. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), emerging Asia-Pacific, 2011-2021
  • Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by type and country, worldwide, 2015-2021
  • Figure 3: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding IoT), worldwide, 2011-2021
  • Figure 4: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and 4G/5G's share of total connections (excluding IoT), worldwide, 2015 and 2021
  • Figure 5: Mobile ARPU (excluding IoT) by region and worldwide, 2011-2021
  • Figure 6: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), emerging Asia-Pacific, 2011-2021
  • Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2015-2021
  • Figure 8: Connections by type, and growth rates, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2015-2021
  • Figure 9: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding IoT), emerging Asia-Pacific, 2011-2021
  • Figure 10: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding IoT), and 3G, 4G and 5G's share of connections, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2011-2021
  • Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation and NGA's share of fixed broadband connections, by country, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2021
  • Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding IoT), emerging Asia-Pacific, 2015 and 2021
  • Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by country, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2011-2021
  • Figure 14: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2011-2021
  • Figure 15: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2011-2021
  • Figure 16: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, emerging Asia-Pacific
  • Figure 17: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, India, 2015-2021
  • Figure 18: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Indonesia, 2015-2021
  • Figure 19: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Malaysia, 2015-2021
  • Figure 20: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Thailand, 2015-2021
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