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市場調查報告書

新興亞太地區的行動服務:趨勢與預測 2015-2020年

Mobile Services in Emerging Asia-Pacific: Trends and Forecasts 2015-2020

出版商 Analysys Mason 商品編碼 357202
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 33 Slides
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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新興亞太地區的行動服務:趨勢與預測 2015-2020年 Mobile Services in Emerging Asia-Pacific: Trends and Forecasts 2015-2020
出版日期: 2016年05月03日 內容資訊: 英文 33 Slides
簡介

新興亞太地區 (EMAP) 的通訊零售收益,從上年度以來上升了3.1%,2014年達到了2,690億美元。這個收益預計從2014年到2020年將以2.9%的年複合成長率 (CAGR) 成長,預計將低過從2010年到2014年歷史性低的年複合成長率7.3%。

本報告涵括新興亞太地區 (EMAP) 的行動服務,彙整全球市場背景,地區分析,及4個主要國家 (印度,印尼,馬來西亞及泰國) 的趨勢分析,EMAP的行動服務市場上近幾年的發展趨勢·業者倡議的考察,今後的市場預測等資料,為您概述為以下內容。

目錄

摘要整理

全球趨勢

  • 新興亞太地區 (EMAP) ,行動零售收益接近北美,最成長最快的市場之一
  • 行動普及率預測將受到DVAP,EMAP,及SSA地區開始提供服務而推動,到2020年增加108%
  • EMAP的智慧型手機普及率反映全球平均
  • 業者間的競爭,OTT服務及匯聚綁定套組受到ARPU的下滑的壓力

地區趨勢

  • 終端資料,寬頻及M2M地區成為成長快的行動服務
  • 擁有複數的SIM·設備預計將有助於行動普及率的成長,到2020年之前將達到102%
  • 在2020年中持續佔有率最高的4G
  • 中國4G連接的佔有率最高,馬來西亞主導寬頻普及率、其他

各國趨勢

  • 印度:3G服務範圍的擴大,預計關稅的削減,及合理的價格的設備可用性將促進市場成長
  • 印尼:業者為了推進資料收益,重視更佳4G功能的建立
  • 馬來西亞:業者應該削減用戶的客戶流失開始行銷宣傳活動
  • 泰國:由於擁有複數設備、第2SIM卡而擴大行動普及率

預測手法·前提條件

關於著者·ANALYSYS MASON

目錄

"Handset data, broadband and M2M will be the fastest growing mobile services in emerging Asia-Pacific; multiple-SIM and device ownership will contribute to the growth of mobile penetration in the region, reaching 102% by 2020."

Telecoms retail revenue in emerging Asia-Pacific (EMAP) reached USD269 billion in 2014, up by 3.1% compared with the previous year. This revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.9% during 2014-2020, which is lower than its historical CAGR of 7.3% for the period between 2010-2014.

EMAP will be one of the fastest-growing markets worldwide, with mobile retail revenue close to that of North America. Smartphone penetration rates in EMAP will mirror the worldwide average, and increasing penetration of 3G and 4G will drive mobile handset data revenue growth in the region - at a CAGR of 11.8%.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • commentary and trend analysis to support our 5-year forecast for EMAP
  • worldwide context, regional analysis and specific country commentary for four key countries: India, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand
  • insights into recent developments and operator inititatives in the mobile services market in EMAP
  • forecasting informed by on-the-ground market experts from our Research and Consulting divisions, and external interviews.

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE

Countries modelled individuallyDetailed country commentary
  • Bangladesh
  • China
  • India
  • Indonesia
  • Malaysia
  • Pakistan
  • Sri Lanka
  • Thailand
  • Vietnam
  • India
  • Indonesia
  • Malaysia
  • Thailand

DATA COVERAGE

Mobile connections
  • Handset, mobile broadband1, M2M2
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G (LTE)
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone
Mobile revenue
  • Service3, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband1, M2M2
  • Handset voice, messaging, data
Mobile ARPU
  • SIMS, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data
Voice traffic
  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

1Includes USB modem, and mid- and large-screen, though not handset-based data.

2M2M connections and revenue figures include mobile services only.

3Service revenue is the sum of retail and wholesale revenue.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Harsh Upadhyay (Analyst) Harsh contributes to Analysys Mason's Asia-Pacific research programme, and is based in our Singapore office. His research focuses on market tracking, competitive assessment, data forecasting, next-generation services and consumer behaviour analysis in the Asia-Pacific telecoms market. He also supports consulting projects and presents at industry events. Harsh's experience in the TMT industry is diverse, and he has a detailed understanding of the telecoms market in the region. He has previously worked with Frost & Sullivan and IDC as an analyst and consultant, and his clients include leading ICT firms and government bodies. Harsh holds a Master's and Bachelor's degree in Business Management from India.

Table of Contents

  • 5.Executive summary
  • 6.Executive summary
  • 7.Worldwide trends
  • 8.Worldwide: EMAP will be one of the fastest-growing markets, with mobile retail revenue close to that of North America
  • 9.Worldwide: Mobile penetration will increase to 108% by 2020, driven by service take-up in the DVAP, EMAP and SSA regions
  • 10.Worldwide: Smartphone penetration rates in EMAP will mirror the worldwide average
  • 11.Worldwide: Competition among operators, OTT services and converged bundles will have a downward pressure on ARPU
  • 12.Regional trends
  • 13.EMAP: Handset data, broadband and M2M will be the fastest-growing mobile services in the region
  • 14.EMAP: Multiple-SIM and device ownership will contribute to the growth of mobile penetration, reaching 102% by 2020
  • 15.EMAP: 4G will have the highest share of connections in 2020
  • 16.EMAP: China will have the highest share of 4G connections and Malaysia will lead fixed broadband penetration
  • 17.EMAP: The number of low-cost smartphones and high-speed mobile data bundles will increase during the forecast period
  • 18.EMAP: The decline of voice and messaging will be offset by growth in the volume of data, which will alleviate the decline rate of ARPU
  • 19.EMAP: Increasing penetration of 3G and 4G contributes to mobile handset data revenue growth at a CAGR of 11.8%
  • 20.Country-level trends
  • 21.India: Expansion of 3G coverage, a reduction in tariffs and the availability of affordable devices will drive market growth
  • 22.Indonesia: Operators are focused on building better 4G capabilities to drive data revenue
  • 23.Malaysia: Operators are launching marketing campaigns to reduce subscriber churn
  • 24.Thailand: Mobile penetration increased in 2014 due to multiple device and second-SIM ownership
  • 25.Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 26.We have a disciplined process of forecasting; our on-the-ground analysts and consultants collaborate closely to assess market dynamics
  • 27.Our forecasts are informed by primary and secondary research for data collection, a rigorous methodology and our analysis of external drivers
  • 28.A robust and comparable set of historical data is the starting point for our forecasts; this involves three main activities
  • 29.About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 30.About the authors
  • 31.About Analysys Mason
  • 32.Research from Analysys Mason
  • 33.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue retail and wholesale), emerging Asia-Pacific, 2010-2020
  • Figure 2: CAGRs for fixed and mobile retail revenue (2014-2020) and market size by total retail revenue (2020), by region, worldwide
  • Figure 3: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), worldwide, 2010-2020
  • Figure 4: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), worldwide, 2014 and 2020
  • Figure 5: Mobile ARPU by region and worldwide, 2010-2020
  • Figure 6: Telecoms retail mobile revenue by service type and mobile ARPU, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2010-2020
  • Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2020
  • Figure 8: Connections by type, and growth rates, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2020
  • Figure 9: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), emerging Asia-Pacific, 2010-2020
  • Figure10: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G and 4G's share of connections, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2010-2020
  • Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation and fixed broadband household penetration, by country, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2020
  • Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014 and 2020
  • Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by country, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2010-2020
  • Figure 14: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2010-2020
  • Figure 15: Mobile ARPU by type, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2010-20201
  • Figure 16: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, emerging Asia-Pacific
  • Figure 17: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, India, 2014-2020
  • Figure 18: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Indonesia, 2014-2020
  • Figure 19: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Malaysia, 2014-2020
  • Figure 20: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Thailand, 2014-2020
  • Figure 21: Data, research principles and external factors that inform our forecasting methodology
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