Cover Image


Mobile Services in Sub-Saharan Africa: Trends and Forecasts 2016-2021

出版商 Analysys Mason 商品編碼 351710
出版日期 內容資訊 英文
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
Back to Top
撒哈拉以南非洲行動服務動向與預測:2016年∼2021年 Mobile Services in Sub-Saharan Africa: Trends and Forecasts 2016-2021
出版日期: 2017年02月20日 內容資訊: 英文


本報告針對撒哈拉以南非洲 (SSA) 行動服務市場調查分析、提供動向分析與5年預測、地區分類分析、國家分類分析整體情報。



  • 世界收益受到網路開始的基本建設投資帶動,行動、固定分類增加
  • 世界普及率因新興亞太地區 (EMAP)、撒哈拉以南非洲(SSA)的行動需求而急速增加、預計至2021年達105%
  • 佔世界行動電話69%的智慧手機、交易最高的是北美(NA)的95%、接著是西歐(WE)的93%
  • 行動ARPU:OTT服務競爭的激烈化與代替方案降低了ARPU


  • 服務總收益因行動電話終端數據成長機會擴大、2021年達511億美元
  • 因幾乎所有國家接續數量都增加使成長緩慢
  • SSA依然以2G為主要技術、2021年4G佔行動連接數量的7.3%
  • 地理範圍:11項通訊市場中、2021年SSA通訊服務總收益佔65.8%
  • 南非行動4G最高 (21.9%)、電話終端智慧手機佔有率至2021年約55.9%
  • 非語音服務支出讓大部分國家ARPU下滑、至2021年的CAGR為2.1%
  • 服務需求與性價比增加讓普及率上升


  • 迦納:智慧手機數量增加與3G使用可能性讓數據需求增加
  • 肯亞:對行動服務的強烈需求與行動金融服務的成功促進持續成長
  • 奈及利亞:行動電話終端數據服務需求急速增加、語音、簡訊收益減少相抵消
  • 南非:競爭與MTR的減少影響收益成長、使用LTE可獲利


關於作者、Analysys Mason




"Demand for mobile content services and operators' bundled offers are driving smartphone take-up and will push the smartphone share of handsets up to 39.8% in 2021."

The convenience of mobile Internet access in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) will drive the demand for handset connections, particularly because many users have little or no access to fixed infrastructure.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • commentary and trend analysis to support our 5-year forecast for SSA
  • worldwide context, regional analysis and commentary
  • forecasting informed by on-the-ground market experts from our Research and Consulting divisions.


Countries modelled individuallyDetailed country commentary
  • Cameroon
  • Côte d'Ivoire
  • Ghana
  • Kenya
  • Nigeria
  • Rwanda
  • South Africa
  • Sudan
  • Tanzania
  • Uganda
  • Zambia
  • Ghana
  • Kenya
  • Nigeria
  • South Africa


Mobile connections
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone
Mobile revenue
  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Handset voice, messaging, data
Mobile ARPU
  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data
Voice traffic
  • Outgoing minutes, MoU


Lee Giet (Research Analyst) is a member of the regional markets research team in London, contributing mainly to the Telecoms Market Matrix, European Core Forecasts, European Country Reports and Global Telecoms Forecasts research programmes. Lee holds a BSc in Physics from University College London (UCL).

Karim Yaici (Senior Analyst) leads Analysys Mason's The Middle East and Africa regional research programme. His primary areas of specialisation include operator strategies, telecoms market developments and consumer trends in growth markets. Prior to joining Analysys Mason, Karim was an associate analyst at Informa Telecoms & Media, where he authored reports on mobile accessories and mobile applications. Prior to that, he worked as a research engineer in the Centre for Communication Systems Research (CCSR) and Vodafone. Karim holds an MSc in Information Systems Management from the University of Southampton and a PhD in human-computer interaction from the University of Surrey.

Table of Contents

  • 5. Executive summary
  • 6. Executive summary
  • 7. Worldwide trends
  • 8. Revenue worldwide will increase in the mobile and fixed segments driven by nfrastructure investments in network roll-out
  • 9. Demand for, and the fast pace of take-up of, mobile in EMAP and SSA will boost penetration to 105% worldwide by 2021
  • 10. Smartphones will account for 69% of handsets worldwide and take-up will be highest in NA (95%) and WE (93%)
  • 11. The high level of competition and substitution by OTT services will continue to put downward pressure on ARPU
  • 12. Regional trends
  • 13. Total service revenue will reach USD51.1 billion in 2021, driven by growth opportunities in mobile handset data
  • 14. Connections will increase in most countries, driven by improved coverage and competition -but growth will slow down
  • 15. 2G will remain the predominant technology in SSA, while 4G will account for only 7.3% of mobile connections in 2021
  • 16. Geographical coverage: We model eleven telecoms markets, which will account for 65.8% of SSA's overall telecoms service revenue in 2021
  • 17. South Africa will have the highest mobile 4G, and smartphone share of handsets by 2021 -at 21.9% and 55.9% respectively
  • 18. Spending on non-voice services will help to slow down ARPU decline in most countries to a -2.1% CAGR through 2021
  • 19. Penetration will increase, driven by the high level of demand for, and increasing affordability of, services
  • 20. Country-level trends
  • 21. Ghana: Increasing numbers of smartphones and the availabilityof 3G services from all six operators will help drive data demand
  • 22. Kenya: Strong demand for mobile services and the success of mobile financial services will encourage continued growth
  • 23. Nigeria: Demand for mobile handset data services is set to grow quickly, offsetting declining voice and messaging revenue
  • 24. South Africa: Competition and MTR cuts will affect revenue growth, while LTE take-up will benefit from new spectrum
  • 25. Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 26. We have a disciplined process of forecasting; our on-the-ground analysts and consultants collaborate closely to assess market dynamics
  • 27. We use a vast variety of primary and secondary research for data collection
  • 28. A robust and comparable set of historical data is the starting point for our forecasts; this involves three main activities
  • 29. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 30. About the authors
  • 31. About Analysys Mason
  • 32. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 33. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Sub-Saharan Africa, 2011-2021
  • Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by type and country, worldwide, 2015-2021
  • Figure 3: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding IoT), worldwide, 2011-2021
  • Figure 4: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and 4G/5G's share of total connections (excluding IoT), worldwide, 2015 and 2021
  • Figure 5: Mobile ARPU (excluding IoT) by region and worldwide, 2011-2021
  • Figure 6: Telecoms retail revenue by mobile service type and mobile ARPU, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2011-2021
  • Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by mobile service type, mobile service revenue and growth rates, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2015-2021
  • Figure 8: Connections by type, and growth rates, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2015-2021
  • Figure 9: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Sub-Saharan Africa, 2011-2021
  • Figure 10: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G, 4G and 5G's share of connections, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2011-2021
  • Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation and fixed broadband household penetration, by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2021
  • Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), Sub-Saharan Africa, 2015 and 2021
  • Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2011-2021
  • Figure 14: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2011-2021
  • Figure 15: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2011-2021
  • Figure 16: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Sub-Saharan Africa
  • Figure 17: Mobile service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Ghana, 2015-2021
  • Figure 18: Mobile service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Kenya, 2015-2021
  • Figure 19: Mobile service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Nigeria, 2015-2021
  • Figure 20: Mobile service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, South Africa, 2015-2021
  • Figure 21: Data, research principles and external factors that inform our forecasting methodology
Back to Top