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市場調查報告書

撒哈拉以南非洲行動服務動向與預測:2015年∼2020年

Mobile Services in Sub-Saharan Africa: Trends and Forecasts 2016-2021

出版商 Analysys Mason 商品編碼 351710
出版日期 內容資訊 英文
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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撒哈拉以南非洲行動服務動向與預測:2015年∼2020年 Mobile Services in Sub-Saharan Africa: Trends and Forecasts 2016-2021
出版日期: 2017年02月20日 內容資訊: 英文
簡介

撒哈拉以南非洲 (SSA) 地區與其他地區相比、行動收益方面預計將有所成長。2014年佔世界行動通訊服務收益6.3%。預測至2020年將增加至6.5%。

本報告針對撒哈拉以南非洲 (SSA) 行動服務市場進行調查分析、提供動向分析與5年預測、地區分類分析、國家分類分析、體系相關情報。

摘要整理

世界動向

  • 世界:收益成長率最高的為發展中地區クゎ、零售收益以北美 (NA) 最大
  • 世界:至2020年行動SIM普及率增加至108%、帶動SSA、新興亞太地區 (EMAP) 、先進亞太地區 (DVAP) 服務
  • 世界:LTE連接數量佔有率NA92%、DVAP84%、SSA5%
  • 世界:OTT服務與融合整體服務對ARPU產生壓力

地區分類動向

  • SSA:2020年服務整體收益達530億美元、帶動行動終端資料成長機會
  • 行動普及率:幾乎所有國家連接數量都增加、但成長遲鈍化
  • 行動連接數:SSA以2G為主要技術、LTE在2020年的行動連接數僅有5.2%
  • 地理範圍:11個通訊市場佔2020年SSA通訊服務收益70%
  • 智慧手機與LTE:南非行動LTE與智慧手機普及率很高
  • 行動ARPU:非語音服務支出可減緩所有國家的ARPU下降
  • SSA行動:普及率增加、帶動語音、網路服務需求

國家分類動向

  • 迦納:智慧手機普及率與3G使用可能性增加、促進資料需求
  • 肯亞:對行動服務的強烈需求與行動金融服務成功促進持續成長
  • 奈及利亞:行動終端資料服務的需求急速增加、抵銷語音、簡訊收益的減少
  • 南非:競爭與MTR削減影響收益成長、但透過LTE獲益

預測方法與前提條件

關於作者、Analysys Mason

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目錄

"Demand for mobile content services and operators' bundled offers are driving smartphone take-up and will push the smartphone share of handsets up to 39.8% in 2021."

The convenience of mobile Internet access in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) will drive the demand for handset connections, particularly because many users have little or no access to fixed infrastructure.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • commentary and trend analysis to support our 5-year forecast for SSA
  • worldwide context, regional analysis and commentary
  • forecasting informed by on-the-ground market experts from our Research and Consulting divisions.

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE

Countries modelled individuallyDetailed country commentary
  • Cameroon
  • Côte d'Ivoire
  • Ghana
  • Kenya
  • Nigeria
  • Rwanda
  • South Africa
  • Sudan
  • Tanzania
  • Uganda
  • Zambia
  • Ghana
  • Kenya
  • Nigeria
  • South Africa

DATA COVERAGE

Mobile connections
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone
Mobile revenue
  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Handset voice, messaging, data
Mobile ARPU
  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data
Voice traffic
  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Lee Giet (Research Analyst) is a member of the regional markets research team in London, contributing mainly to the Telecoms Market Matrix, European Core Forecasts, European Country Reports and Global Telecoms Forecasts research programmes. Lee holds a BSc in Physics from University College London (UCL).

Karim Yaici (Senior Analyst) leads Analysys Mason's The Middle East and Africa regional research programme. His primary areas of specialisation include operator strategies, telecoms market developments and consumer trends in growth markets. Prior to joining Analysys Mason, Karim was an associate analyst at Informa Telecoms & Media, where he authored reports on mobile accessories and mobile applications. Prior to that, he worked as a research engineer in the Centre for Communication Systems Research (CCSR) and Vodafone. Karim holds an MSc in Information Systems Management from the University of Southampton and a PhD in human-computer interaction from the University of Surrey.

Table of Contents

  • 5. Executive summary
  • 6. Executive summary
  • 7. Worldwide trends
  • 8. Revenue worldwide will increase in the mobile and fixed segments driven by nfrastructure investments in network roll-out
  • 9. Demand for, and the fast pace of take-up of, mobile in EMAP and SSA will boost penetration to 105% worldwide by 2021
  • 10. Smartphones will account for 69% of handsets worldwide and take-up will be highest in NA (95%) and WE (93%)
  • 11. The high level of competition and substitution by OTT services will continue to put downward pressure on ARPU
  • 12. Regional trends
  • 13. Total service revenue will reach USD51.1 billion in 2021, driven by growth opportunities in mobile handset data
  • 14. Connections will increase in most countries, driven by improved coverage and competition -but growth will slow down
  • 15. 2G will remain the predominant technology in SSA, while 4G will account for only 7.3% of mobile connections in 2021
  • 16. Geographical coverage: We model eleven telecoms markets, which will account for 65.8% of SSA's overall telecoms service revenue in 2021
  • 17. South Africa will have the highest mobile 4G, and smartphone share of handsets by 2021 -at 21.9% and 55.9% respectively
  • 18. Spending on non-voice services will help to slow down ARPU decline in most countries to a -2.1% CAGR through 2021
  • 19. Penetration will increase, driven by the high level of demand for, and increasing affordability of, services
  • 20. Country-level trends
  • 21. Ghana: Increasing numbers of smartphones and the availabilityof 3G services from all six operators will help drive data demand
  • 22. Kenya: Strong demand for mobile services and the success of mobile financial services will encourage continued growth
  • 23. Nigeria: Demand for mobile handset data services is set to grow quickly, offsetting declining voice and messaging revenue
  • 24. South Africa: Competition and MTR cuts will affect revenue growth, while LTE take-up will benefit from new spectrum
  • 25. Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 26. We have a disciplined process of forecasting; our on-the-ground analysts and consultants collaborate closely to assess market dynamics
  • 27. We use a vast variety of primary and secondary research for data collection
  • 28. A robust and comparable set of historical data is the starting point for our forecasts; this involves three main activities
  • 29. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 30. About the authors
  • 31. About Analysys Mason
  • 32. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 33. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Sub-Saharan Africa, 2011-2021
  • Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by type and country, worldwide, 2015-2021
  • Figure 3: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding IoT), worldwide, 2011-2021
  • Figure 4: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and 4G/5G's share of total connections (excluding IoT), worldwide, 2015 and 2021
  • Figure 5: Mobile ARPU (excluding IoT) by region and worldwide, 2011-2021
  • Figure 6: Telecoms retail revenue by mobile service type and mobile ARPU, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2011-2021
  • Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by mobile service type, mobile service revenue and growth rates, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2015-2021
  • Figure 8: Connections by type, and growth rates, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2015-2021
  • Figure 9: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Sub-Saharan Africa, 2011-2021
  • Figure 10: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G, 4G and 5G's share of connections, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2011-2021
  • Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation and fixed broadband household penetration, by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2021
  • Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), Sub-Saharan Africa, 2015 and 2021
  • Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2011-2021
  • Figure 14: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2011-2021
  • Figure 15: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2011-2021
  • Figure 16: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Sub-Saharan Africa
  • Figure 17: Mobile service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Ghana, 2015-2021
  • Figure 18: Mobile service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Kenya, 2015-2021
  • Figure 19: Mobile service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Nigeria, 2015-2021
  • Figure 20: Mobile service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, South Africa, 2015-2021
  • Figure 21: Data, research principles and external factors that inform our forecasting methodology
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