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Mobile Services in Sub-Saharan Africa: Trends and Forecasts 2015-2020

出版商 Analysys Mason 商品編碼 351710
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 34 Slides
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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撒哈拉以南非洲行動服務動向與預測:2015年∼2020年 Mobile Services in Sub-Saharan Africa: Trends and Forecasts 2015-2020
出版日期: 2016年02月08日 內容資訊: 英文 34 Slides

撒哈拉以南非洲 (SSA) 地區與其他地區相比、行動收益方面預計將有所成長。2014年佔世界行動通訊服務收益6.3%。預測至2020年將增加至6.5%。

本報告針對撒哈拉以南非洲 (SSA) 行動服務市場進行調查分析、提供動向分析與5年預測、地區分類分析、國家分類分析、體系相關情報。



  • 世界:收益成長率最高的為發展中地區クゎ、零售收益以北美 (NA) 最大
  • 世界:至2020年行動SIM普及率增加至108%、帶動SSA、新興亞太地區 (EMAP) 、先進亞太地區 (DVAP) 服務
  • 世界:LTE連接數量佔有率NA92%、DVAP84%、SSA5%
  • 世界:OTT服務與融合整體服務對ARPU產生壓力


  • SSA:2020年服務整體收益達530億美元、帶動行動終端資料成長機會
  • 行動普及率:幾乎所有國家連接數量都增加、但成長遲鈍化
  • 行動連接數:SSA以2G為主要技術、LTE在2020年的行動連接數僅有5.2%
  • 地理範圍:11個通訊市場佔2020年SSA通訊服務收益70%
  • 智慧手機與LTE:南非行動LTE與智慧手機普及率很高
  • 行動ARPU:非語音服務支出可減緩所有國家的ARPU下降
  • SSA行動:普及率增加、帶動語音、網路服務需求


  • 迦納:智慧手機普及率與3G使用可能性增加、促進資料需求
  • 肯亞:對行動服務的強烈需求與行動金融服務成功促進持續成長
  • 奈及利亞:行動終端資料服務的需求急速增加、抵銷語音、簡訊收益的減少
  • 南非:競爭與MTR削減影響收益成長、但透過LTE獲益


關於作者、Analysys Mason



"Mobile handset data revenue will drive telecoms retail revenue growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, with voice remaining a key revenue contributor, but there will be greater commoditisation and bundling of large numbers of voice minutes."

The Sub-Saharan African (SSA) region will experience relatively strong growth in mobile revenue, compared with other regions. In 2014, SSA accounted for 6.3% of worldwide mobile telecoms service revenue, and we expect this to increase to 6.5% by 2020.

Connections will increase in most countries in SSA, driven by improved coverage and competition, but growth will slow down as a result of increased taxation of the telecoms industry, mobile termination rate (MTR) cuts (which will reduce the need for multiple SIMs), and the enforcement of SIM registration, which will inhibit the demand for new connections.

The greater availability of low-priced devices, expanding 3G and 4G coverage, improved service quality, and the availability of innovative mobile data offers will help support the take-up of data services.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • commentary and trend analysis to support our 5-year forecast for SSA
  • worldwide context, regional analysis and specific country commentary for four key countries: Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa
  • forecasting informed by robust historical data, as well as our unique, in-house modelling tool, which applies a rigorous methodology (including the reconciliation of different sources, standard definitions, top-down and bottom-up modelling).


Countries modelled individuallyDetailed country commentary
  • Cameroon
  • Côte d'Ivoire
  • Ghana
  • Kenya
  • Nigeria
  • Rwanda
  • South Africa
  • Sudan
  • Tanzania
  • Uganda
  • Zambia
  • Ghana
  • Kenya
  • Nigeria
  • South Africa


Mobile connections
  • Handset, mobile broadband1, M2M2
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G (LTE)
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone
Mobile revenue
  • Service3, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband1, M2M2
  • Handset voice, messaging, data
Mobile ARPU
  • SIMS, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data
Voice traffic
  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

1Includes USB modem, and mid- and large-screen, though not handset-based data.

2M2M connections and revenue figures include mobile services only.

3Service revenue is the sum of retail and wholesale revenue.


Devine Kofiloto (Senior Analyst) co-leads Analysys Mason's The Middle East and Africa research programme. His primary area of focus is the Sub-Saharan Africa region and his specialisations include operator strategies, market developments and technology trends within the sub-region. He has over 15 years' experience of the telecoms and media markets and has worked with senior management of major players within the mobile industry to provide market intelligence services, and deliver projects and commercial advisory services.

Prior to joining Analysys Mason, Devine was previously a Principal Analyst at Informa Telecoms & Media, focusing on the Middle East and Africa (MEA). He is well travelled in the region and has deep knowledge of the Sub-Saharan African telecoms landscape. Devine holds an MSc in Management studies from the Norwegian School of Management and a Marketing degree from the Norwegian School of Marketing.

Karim Yaici (Senior Analyst) leads Analysys Mason's The Middle East and Africa regional research programme. His primary areas of specialisation include operator strategies, telecoms market developments and consumer trends in growth markets. Prior to joining Analysys Mason, Karim was an associate analyst at Informa Telecoms & Media, where he authored reports on mobile accessories and mobile applications. Prior to that, he worked as a research engineer in the Centre for Communication Systems Research (CCSR) and Vodafone. Karim holds an MSc in Information Systems Management from the University of Southampton and a PhD in human-computer interaction from the University of Surrey.

Table of Contents

  • 5. Executive summary
  • 6. Executive summary
  • 7. Worldwide trends
  • 8. Worldwide: Developing regions will have highest revenue growth, but NA will be largest retail revenue contributor by 2020
  • 9. Worldwide: Mobile SIM penetration will increase to 108% by 2020, driven by service take-up in SSA, EMAP and DVAP
  • 10. Worldwide: LTE's share of connections will be the highest in NA (92%) and DVAP (84%), while SSA will trail behind (5%)
  • 11. Worldwide: OTT services and converged bundle services will have a downward pressure on ARPU
  • 12. Regional trends
  • 13. SSA: Total service revenue will reach USD53 billion in 2020, driven by growth opportunities in mobile handset data
  • 14. Mobile penetration: Connections will increase in most countries, but growth will slow down
  • 15. Mobile connections: 2G will remain the main technology in SSA, but LTE will account for only 5.2% of mobile connections in 2020
  • 16. Geographical coverage: We model 11 telecoms markets, which will account for 70% of SSA's telecoms service revenue in 2020
  • 17. Smartphones and LTE: South Africa will have the highest mobile LTE and smartphone penetration by 2020
  • 18. Mobile ARPU: Spending on non-voice services will help to slow down ARPU decline in most of the countries
  • 19. SSA-mobile: Penetration growth will be driven by demand for voice and Internet services
  • 20. Country-level trends
  • 21. Ghana: Increasing proliferation of smartphones and 3G availability from all six operators will help drive demand for data
  • 22. Kenya: Strong demand for mobile services and success of mobile financial services will encourage continued growth
  • 23. Nigeria: Demand for mobile handset data services is set to grow fast, offsetting declining voice and messaging revenue
  • 24. South Africa: Competition and MTR cuts will impact revenue growth, while LTE take-up will benefit from new spectrum
  • 25. Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 26. We have a disciplined process of forecasting; our on-the-ground analysts and consultants collaborate closely to assess market dynamics
  • 27. Our forecasts are informed by primary and secondary research for data collection, a rigorous methodology and our analysis of external drivers
  • 28. A robust and comparable set of historical data is the starting point for our forecasts; this involves three main activities
  • 29. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 30. About the authors
  • 31. About Analysys Mason
  • 32. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 33. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Sub-Saharan Africa, 2010-2020
  • Figure 2: CAGRs for fixed and mobile retail revenue (2014-2020) and market size by total retail revenue (2020), by region, worldwide
  • Figure 3: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), worldwide, 2010-2020
  • Figure 4: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), worldwide, 2014 and 2020
  • Figure 5: Mobile ARPU by region and worldwide, 2010-2020
  • Figure 6: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Sub-Saharan Africa, 2010-2020
  • Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014-2020
  • Figure 8: Connections by type, and growth rates, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014-2020
  • Figure 9: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Sub-Saharan Africa, 2010-2020
  • Figure 10: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G and 4G's share of connections, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2010-2020
  • Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation, by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2020
  • Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014 and 2020
  • Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2010-2020
  • Figure 14: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2010-2020
  • Figure 15: Mobile ARPU by type, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2010-2020
  • Figure 16: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Sub-Saharan Africa
  • Figure 17: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Ghana, 2014-2020
  • Figure 18: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Kenya, 2014-2020
  • Figure 19: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Nigeria, 2014-2020
  • Figure 20: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, South Africa, 2014-2020
  • Figure 21: Data, research principles and external factors that inform our forecasting methodology
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