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市場調查報告書

中東歐通訊市場:中途預測更新 (14國) 2015-2020年

Central and Eastern Europe Telecoms Market: Interim Forecast Update (14 Countries) 2015-2020

出版商 Analysys Mason 商品編碼 351302
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 21 Slides
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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中東歐通訊市場:中途預測更新 (14國) 2015-2020年 Central and Eastern Europe Telecoms Market: Interim Forecast Update (14 Countries) 2015-2020
出版日期: 2016年02月02日 內容資訊: 英文 21 Slides
簡介

中東歐 (CEE) 地區行動終端收益成長、預計2015-2020年行動語音的損失增加、4G連結佔有率至2020年將超過3G、加速資料使用的擴大=。中東歐 (CEE) 地區整體通訊收益2015年與2016年雖然恢復、但預估2017年至2020年收益會稍稍減少。

本報告針對中東歐 (CEE) 地區14國通訊市場進行調查、提供市場動向分析與預測、對於上次預測中有較大變化的項目進行說明。

摘要整理、地區預測

  • 中東歐通訊零售收益修正:2017年下滑前2016年稍有增加
  • 行動終端資料收益上升控制了與整體通訊收益的下降但同時語音收益下滑更多
  • 智慧手機LTE:智慧手機普及率向下修正但持續成長:連結LTE佔有率達40%但傳統服務收益ゾ更加下滑
  • 預測修正:行動資料、固定
  • 上次預測的主要地區變化:終端資料收益向上修正、為改善寬頻展望、收益下滑比上次預測得少

各國預測

  • 捷克:DSL的收益除了現有企業的FTTC升級投資、也支撐固定寬頻市場
  • 波蘭:持續價格競爭讓通訊收益下滑、但也控制了終端資料收益成長下降
  • 俄羅斯
  • 土耳其:促進固定、行動網路擴大、持續安定收益成長

關於作者、Analysys Mason

圖表列表

目錄

"We expect that mobile handset data revenue growth in the CEE region will outpace mobile voice losses in the forecast period, and the share of connections for 4G will exceed 3G by 2020, further accelerating data usage growth."

Total telecoms revenue for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) was revised up for 2015 and 2016, but we expect revenue to slowly decline between 2017 and 2020.

Mobile handset data revenue growth will be the most important market driver in all countries that we have modelled individually. Mergers and market consolidation, together with increasing demand for bundles (driven by operator convergence) will facilitate improved ASPU and reduced churn. Demand for high-quality data services will drive revenue up because over-the-top (OTT) and streaming services are gaining momentum.

This report provides:

  • an interim update of our 5-year forecast (Central and Eastern Europe telecoms market: trends and forecasts (14 countries) 2015-2020, previously published in September 2015) of more than 100 mobile and fixed KPIs for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) as a whole and for four key countries.
  • an explanation of the significant changes in this edition, compared with our previous forecasts.

Revisions to our previous forecasts occurred mainly for the following reasons:

  • market developments - based on recent market events and latest reported operator and regulator data (2Q 2015)
  • changes to the competitive and regulatory environment
  • changes to the macroeconomic outlook and exchange rates used to derive revenue in constant EUR
  • changes to historical data because of newly available information.

Coverage

Geographical coverageMajor KPIs
Region modelledConnectionsRevenue
Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) Mobile
  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone
Fixed
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, pay TV
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL (ADSL/SDSL and VDSL), FTTH/B, cable, other

Mobile
  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Handset voice, messaging, data
Fixed
  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, pay TV, BNS
  • DSL, FTTH/B, cable, other

Countries modelled individuallyFixed and mobile voice trafficMobile ARPU
  • Bulgaria
  • Croatia
  • Czech Republic
  • Estonia
  • Hungary
  • Latvia
  • Lithuania
  • Poland
  • Romania
  • Russia
  • Slovakia
  • Slovenia
  • Turkey
  • Ukraine

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU
  • Mobile data

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice

Table of Contents

  • 5.Executive summary and regional forecasts
  • 6.Telecoms retail revenue in Central and Eastern Europe is revised up -increasing slightly in 2016 before it begins to decline again in 2017
  • 7.Rising mobile handset data revenue will limit the decline of overall telecoms revenue and will also outpace the decline of voice revenue
  • 8.Smartphones and LTE: Smartphone penetration is revised down, but growth continues - and LTE's share of connections will exceed 40%
  • 9.Key regional changes since our previous forecast: handset data revenue has been revised up, but traditional service revenue will decline further
  • 10.Forecast revision: revenue decline will be slower than previously expected because the mobile data and fixed broadband outlook has improved
  • 11.Individual country forecasts
  • 12.Czech Republic: Revenue from DSL will prop up the fixed broadband market as the incumbent invests in FTTC upgrades
  • 13.Poland: Price competition will continue to drive down telecoms revenue, but handset data revenue growth limits the decline
  • 14.Russia: The negative effect of a restated smartphone user base on 4G take-up will be limited by regulator decisions and investment
  • 15.Turkey: Strong revenue growth will continue, driven by fixed and mobile network expansion
  • 16.About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 17.About the authors
  • 18.About Analysys Mason
  • 19.Research from Analysys Mason
  • 20.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Central and Eastern Europe, 2010-2020
  • Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014-2020
  • Figure 3: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), Central and Eastern Europe, 2014 and 2020
  • Figure 4: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast for Central and Eastern Europe
  • Figure 5: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue, previous and new forecasts, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014 and 2020
  • Figure 6: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014-2020
  • Figure 7: Connections by type, and growth rates, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014-2020
  • Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Czech Republic, 2010-2020
  • Figure 9: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Czech Republic
  • Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Poland, 2010-2020
  • Figure 11: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Poland
  • Figure 12: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Russia, 2010-2020
  • Figure 13: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Russia
  • Figure 14: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Turkey, 2010-2020
  • Figure 15: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Turkey
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