Cover Image
市場調查報告書

無線網路資料流量:世界動向、預測 (2015-2020年)

Wireless Network Data Traffic: Worldwide Trends and Forecasts 2015-2020

出版商 Analysys Mason 商品編碼 350693
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 49 Slides
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
價格
Back to Top
無線網路資料流量:世界動向、預測 (2015-2020年) Wireless Network Data Traffic: Worldwide Trends and Forecasts 2015-2020
出版日期: 2016年01月25日 內容資訊: 英文 49 Slides
簡介

本報告針對世界主要30國無線網路資料流量進行調查、提供Cellular&Wi-Fi資料流量5年預測、地區與國家主要動向、流量成長促進因素、阻礙因素。

目錄

  • 世界動向
    • 4G促進新興經濟圈流量成長、預計行動資料流量佔有率為10%以下
    • LTE-Advanced市場流量成長非爆發性也有可能呈現S型
    • 對FTTx的投資讓新興市場急速成長但有趨緩的可能性
    • GIGABYTE的價值下滑但行動資料整體利益維持
    • 特別是先進市場流量成長與收益成長並無特別關聯
    • 4G智慧手機開始2年內達3G的3倍流量
    • Wi-Fi已是家庭用無線網路、也可能成為公共室內無線網路
    • 授權頻譜不再是判斷流量的重要依據
  • 西歐
    • 最快速成長
    • 預計流量成長率會大幅減緩
  • 中歐、東歐
    • 使用Cellular改進固定寬頻的缺點
    • 隨著西歐成長率變動但有較高的MBB使用率
  • 中東、北非
    • 所有寬頻都十分依賴行動網路
    • GCC各國以外對投資過慢、限定了流量成長
  • 撒哈拉以南非洲
    • 與可使用所得之間有很大的關係
    • 對於MNO的高需求應對能力不足的三大原因
  • 亞太地區新興國家
    • 全體流量大幅成長
    • 中國促進大幅成長
  • 亞太地區先進國家
    • 價格統一、飽和狀態阻礙成長
    • 流量成長模式穩定
  • 北美
    • 美國流量:大幅減緩
  • 拉丁美洲
    • 南美市場:在資料使用方面比墨西哥稍早開始
    • 所得不平均分佈影響地區流量成長
  • 預測方法、前提因素
  • 地區區分定義
  • 關於Analysys Mason、作者
目錄

It is an oversimplification to describe mobile data traffic growth as explosive or exponential; it is not a force of nature - growth is instead shaped by various constraints and drivers."

Wireless data traffic growth is developing in divergent ways, which reflects the differing strategic investment decisions taken by operators in different regions. This report analyses these trends, and highlights how operators' strategies and regional differences shape present and future traffic levels.

This report provides:

  • 5-year forecasts of wireless data traffic (cellular and Wi-Fi) worldwide, in eight regions and for 30 selected countries
  • analysis of the key trends in, and drivers and inhibitors of, data traffic
  • discussion of the impact of cost and pricing on data traffic
  • analysis of the trends in private and public usage, and their effect on the use of mobile and Wi-Fi connectivity.

Table of Contents

  • 7.Worldwide trends
  • 8.Worldwide: 4G and emerging economies are driving traffic growth, but mobile will remain a sub-10% share of data traffic
  • 9.Worldwide: Traffic growth in advanced LTE markets looks linear - not exponential - and may even turn into s-curves
  • 10.Worldwide: Investment in FTTx may slow the very rapid growth in emerging markets
  • 11.Worldwide: The value of a gigabyte is falling by about 30% per year, but the gross margin on mobile data remains very high
  • 12.Worldwide: There is now little correlation between traffic growth and revenue growth, especially in advanced markets
  • 13.Worldwide: Within 2 years after launch, 4G smartphones generate at least 3 times more traffic than 3G
  • 14.Worldwide: Wi-Fi is already the default at-home network, and could become the default public indoor network
  • 15.Worldwide: The availability of licensed spectrum will become a less important factor in determining the volume of traffic
  • 16.Western Europe
  • 17.Western Europe: The region is just passing the point of fastest growth
  • 18.Western Europe: The rate of growth in traffic will slow considerably by the end of 2020
  • 19.Central and Eastern Europe
  • 20.Central and Eastern Europe: Deficits in fixed broadband have boosted cellular usage levels
  • 21.Central and Eastern Europe: The region will broadly follow the rates of growth in Western Europe, but with higher MBB usage
  • 22.Middle East and North Africa
  • 23.Middle East and North Africa: Most of the region remains heavily reliant on mobile networks for all broadband
  • 24.Middle East and North Africa: Outside the GCC area, underinvestment may limit traffic growth
  • 25.Sub-Saharan Africa
  • 26.Sub-Saharan Africa: Usage levels are strongly related to income in the region
  • 27.Sub-Saharan Africa: Three main factors will constrain the ability of MNOs to cater for the high demand
  • 28.Emerging Asia-Pacific
  • 29.Emerging Asia-Pacific: Traffic in the region as a whole is growing by about 80-90% per year
  • 30.Emerging Asia-Pacific: Very strong growth is driven largely by China catching up in average usage with comparable markets
  • 31.Developed Asia-Pacific
  • 32.Developed Asia-Pacific: Pricing discipline and saturation has meant subdued growth in most regional markets
  • 33.Developed Asia-Pacific: The pattern of growth in traffic will be linear not exponential
  • 34.North America
  • 35.North America: US traffic growth has slowed dramatically
  • 36.North America: It is difficult to see cellular data traffic growing more than four-fold between now and the end of the decade
  • 37.Latin America
  • 38.Latin America: South American markets are a little ahead of Mexico in terms of data usage
  • 39.Latin America: Uneven income distribution will shape traffic growth in the region
  • 40.Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 41.Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 42.Definition of geographical regions [1]
  • 43.Definition of geographical regions [2]
  • 44.About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 45.About the author
  • 46.About Analysys Mason
  • 47.Research from Analysys Mason
  • 48.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Summary of report coverage
  • Figure 2: 4G and higher device share of traffic, worldwide, emerging and developed economies, 2013 - 2020
  • Figure 3: Cellular data traffic, by region, 2013-2020
  • Figure 4: Mobile share of total worldwide Internet traffic, 2013-2015
  • Figure 5: Annual growth multiples, total mobile data traffic selected advanced LTE markets, 4Q 2011-2Q 2015
  • Figure 6: Average usage per data SIM, normalised to 4Q 2011, selected advanced LTE markets, 4Q 2011-2Q 2015
  • Figure 7: Cellular data traffic, worldwide, developed economies and emerging economies, 2013-2020, Analysys Mason 2014 and 2015 forecasts
  • Figure 8: Data revenue per used GB, handset-only, by region, 2012-2015
  • Figure 9: Typical range of network and wholesale costs, and revenue sold and consumed, Western Europe, 2015
  • Figure 10: Mobile data traffic growth, overall retail revenue growth and data revenue growth, worldwide, 2012-2015
  • Figure 11: Year-on-year retail mobile revenue growth, selected advanced LTE markets, 3Q 2013-2Q 2015
  • Figure 12: Ratio of average 4G and average 3G smartphone usage, worldwide and selected markets
  • Figure 13: US device penetration and average usage, 2010- 2014
  • Figure 14: Smartphone users who connected to Wi-Fi by category of hotspot and the average amount of their total Wi-Fi data usage attributable to that category, Android users (n = 1211)
  • Figure 15: Convergence of fibre access and mobile
  • Figure 16: Annual rate of growth, cellular data traffic, selected Western Europe markets, 2013-2016
  • Figure 17: Cellular data traffic per head of population per month, selected Western Europe markets, 2014 and 2015
  • Figure 18: Cellular data traffic, Western Europe, by market, 2013-2020
  • Figure 19: Annual rate of growth, cellular data traffic, selected Central and Eastern Europe markets, 2013-2016
  • Figure 20: Cellular data traffic per head of population per month, selected Central and Eastern Europe markets, 2014 and 2015
  • Figure 21: Cellular data traffic, Central and Eastern Europe, by market, 2013-2020
  • Figure 22: Annual rate of growth, cellular data traffic, selected MENA markets, 2013 - 2016
  • Figure 23: Cellular data traffic per head of population per month, selected MENA markets, 2014 and 2015
  • Figure 24: Cellular data traffic, MENA, by market, 2013-2020
  • Figure 25: Annual rate of growth, cellular data traffic, selected SSA markets, 2013-2016
  • Figure 26: Cellular data traffic per head of population per month, selected SSA markets, 2014 and 2015
  • Figure 27: Cellular data traffic, SSA, by market, 2013-2020
  • Figure 28: Annual rate of growth, cellular data traffic, selected emerging Asia-Pacific markets, 2013- 2016
  • Figure 29: Cellular data traffic per head of population per month, selected emerging Asia-Pacific markets, 2014 and 2015
  • Figure 30: Cellular data traffic, emerging Asia-Pacific, by market, 2013-2020
  • Figure 31: Annual rate of growth, cellular data traffic, selected developed Asia-Pacific markets, 2013-2016
  • Figure 32: Cellular data traffic per head of population per month, developed emerging Asia-Pacific markets, 2014 and 2015
  • Figure 33: Cellular data traffic, developed Asia-Pacific, by market, 2013-2020
  • Figure 34: Annual rate of growth, cellular data traffic, Canada and the USA, 2013-2016
  • Figure 35: Cellular data traffic per head of population per month, Canada and the USA, 2014 and 2015
  • Figure 36: Cellular data traffic, North America, by market, 2013-2020
  • Figure 37: Annual rate of growth, cellular data traffic, selected Latin American markets, 2013-2016
  • Figure 38: Cellular data traffic per head of population per month, Brazil and Mexico, 2014 and 2015
  • Figure 39: Cellular data traffic, Latin America, by market, 2013-2020
  • Figure 40a: Regional breakdown used in this report
  • Figure 40b: Regional breakdown used in this report
Back to Top