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市場調查報告書

無線網路數據流量:世界動向與預測

Wireless Network Data Traffic: Worldwide Trends and Forecasts 2016-2021

出版商 Analysys Mason 商品編碼 350693
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 49 Slides
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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無線網路數據流量:世界動向與預測 Wireless Network Data Traffic: Worldwide Trends and Forecasts 2016-2021
出版日期: 2017年02月07日 內容資訊: 英文 49 Slides
簡介

本報告針對世界無線網路數據流量調查分析、提供無線數據流量5年預測、主要動向、促進因素、阻礙因素、成本影響、價格動向等整體情報。

摘要整理

世界動向

  • 世界:蜂窩數據流量成長減緩
  • 世界:中國與印度急速引進4G帶動世界蜂窩數據流量成長
  • 世界:2021年所得水準與行動電話的每月使用量之間有所相關
  • 世界:Dongle/路由流量並非是新興市場流量的大部分
  • 世界:先進市場的室外流量整體公共Wi-Fi流量佔有率減少
  • 世界:蜂窩數據流量成長與業者收益無關
  • 世界:免除無限速預付數據比例後、流量雖可大幅減少但有商業影響
  • 世界:提供影音流量的無限速、影音流量不需增加、成為最大差異因素

西歐

  • 西歐:單人數據使用量比其他先進地區緩慢
  • 西歐:因競爭的限制、部份西歐市場流量成長受限

中歐、東歐

  • 中歐、東歐:波蘭數據流量成長受到固定無線LTE帶動
  • 中歐、東歐:地區全整年度成長率到2021年將穩定下來

中東、北非

  • 中東、北非:GCC市場展示穩定成長率
  • 中東、北非:地區有很大的成長可能性

撒哈拉以南非洲

  • 撒哈拉以南非洲:數據流量成長率被數據用戶使用量增加帶動
  • 撒哈拉以南非洲:數據流量、收益成長受限於設備價值問題

新興亞太地區

  • 新興亞太地區:成長率以中國、印度、印尼最高
  • 新興亞太地區:2017年持續主導世界蜂窩數據流量成長率

先進亞太地區

  • 先進亞太地區:地區市場沒有同樣特徵
  • 先進亞太地區:4G智慧手機年度成長率很低

北美

  • 北美:競爭激烈促使美國流量成長
  • 北美:美國蜂窩數據流量成長缺乏一貫性

拉丁美洲

  • 拉丁美洲:2015年流量成長率變化豐富
  • 拉丁美洲:蜂窩流量成長率2016年達頂點

預測方法與前題條件

關於作者、Analysys Mason

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目錄

"The rate of annual growth worldwide will decline persistently over the forecast period, falling from 78% in 2015 to 30% in 2021."

Cellular data traffic growth will continue to be stronger in emerging markets than in developed ones. Constraints on growth such as competitive conditions and network coverage will affect all regions worldwide, and will continue to shape the rate of cellular data traffic growth.

This report provides:

  • 5-year forecasts of wireless data traffic worldwide, in eight regions and for 33 selected countries and the Nordic region
  • analysis of the key trends in, and drivers and inhibitors of, data traffic
  • discussion of the impact of cost and pricing on data traffic
  • analysis of the trends in private and public usage, and their effect on the use of mobile and Wi-Fi connectivity.

The forecast dataset underpinning this report covers:

  • mobile data: data delivered over cellular networks to: handsets; mid-screen devices (typically tablets); USB modems, routers and other standalone data devices; median usage per smartphone; and downstream and upstream
  • Wi-Fi data: data delivered over private Wi-Fi connections (at home or work) to handsets and mid-screen devices, and data delivered to all devices using public Wi-Fi connectivity.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Stephen Wilson (Principal Analyst) contributes research to our Fixed Networks and Wireless Networks research programmes. He joined Analysys Mason as a Senior Analyst in November 2012, having previously worked for Informa Telecoms & Media. Stephen has more than 5 years of experience of covering the telecoms industry and specialises in analysing fixed broadband access technologies and strategies, as well as developments in European telecoms markets across fixed and mobile sectors. He has produced reports on DSL acceleration technologies as well as regular updates on European markets, notably in Central and Eastern Europe. Stephen is a graduate in Politics, Philosophy and Economics from St Catherine's College, Oxford University.

Table of Contents

  • 7. Worldwide trends
  • 8. Worldwide: The rate of growth for cellular data traffic will slow considerably during the forecast period
  • 9. Worldwide: Rapid 4G adoption in China and India is driving worldwide growth of cellular data traffic
  • 10. Worldwide: Even in 2021, there will still be some correlation between income levels and monthly handset usage
  • 11. Worldwide: dongle and router traffic is not set to account for a large proportion of traffic across most emerging markets
  • 12. Worldwide: Public Wi-Fi traffic's share of total out-of-home traffic is declining in developed markets
  • 13. Worldwide: There continues to be little correlation between cellular data traffic growth and operator revenue
  • 14. Worldwide: Removing unlimited throttled speed prepaid data quotas can significantly reduce traffic, but its commercial impact has been mixed
  • 15. Worldwide: Offering unlimited throttled speed for video traffic need not increase video traffic and could be a significant differentiator
  • 16. Western Europe
  • 17. Western Europe: Data usage per head of population lags behind other developed regions
  • 18. Western Europe: Competitive constraints will limit traffic growth in some Western European markets
  • 19. Central and Eastern Europe
  • 20. Central and Eastern Europe: Polish cellular data traffic growth has been driven by fixed-wireless LTE
  • 21. Central and Eastern Europe: Annual growth rates across the region will converge by 2021
  • 22. Middle East and North Africa
  • 23. Middle East and North Africa: GCC markets are showing solid rates of growth
  • 24. Middle East and North Africa: There is still significant potential for traffic growth in the region
  • 25. Sub-Saharan Africa
  • 26. Sub-Saharan Africa: The rate of data traffic growth is being driven by an increase in usage per data subscriber
  • 27. Sub-Saharan Africa: Data traffic and revenue growth is constrained by device affordability issues
  • 28. Emerging Asia-Pacific
  • 29. Emerging Asia-Pacific: Growth rates have been highest in China, India and Indonesia
  • 30. Emerging Asia-Pacific: The region will continue to lead in global cellular data traffic growth rates in 2017
  • 31. Developed Asia-Pacific
  • 32. Developed Asia-Pacific: Markets in the DVAP region do not all share the same characteristics
  • 33. Developed Asia-Pacific: Annual growth rates per 4G smartphone are already quite low in the region
  • 34. North America
  • 35. North America: Increased competition will spur traffic growth in the USA; reported cellular data traffic growth in the USA has been erratic
  • 36. North America: Increased competition will spur traffic growth in the USA
  • 37. Latin America
  • 38. Latin America: The rates of traffic growth varied widely across the region in 2015
  • 39. Latin America: The rates for cellular traffic growth will peak in 2016
  • 40. Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 41. Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 42. Definition of geographical regions [1]
  • 43. Definition of geographical regions [2]
  • 44. About the author and AnalysysMason
  • 45. About the author
  • 46. AnalysysMason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
  • 47. Research from AnalysysMason
  • 48. Consulting from AnalysysMason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Cellular data traffic, by region, 2014-2021
  • Figure 2: Share of traffic over 2G/3G and 4G and higher devices, worldwide, emerging and developed economies, 2014-2021
  • Figure 3: Cellular data traffic, worldwide, developed economies and emerging economies, 2014-2021, AnalysysMason 2015 and 2016 forecasts
  • Figure 4: Monthly data traffic per handset against GDP per capita, 2021, selected countries worldwide
  • Figure 5: Dongle and router share of total cellular data traffic, selected countries, 2016 and 2021
  • Figure 6: South Korea's public Wi-Fi traffic carried through operators' networks, year-on-year growth, 1Q 2014-3Q 2016
  • Figure 7: Year-on-year mobile data traffic growth, overall retail revenue growth and data revenue growth, worldwide, 2014-2016
  • Figure 8: Year-on-year mobile data revenue and cellular data traffic by developed market region, 2015 and 2016
  • Figure 9: Telefonica Brasildata traffic and net mobile service revenue year-on-year growth, 1Q 2014-4Q 2015
  • Figure 10: Ratio of data consumption by video resolution format (144p = 1)
  • Figure 11: Annual rate of growth, cellular data traffic, selected Western Europe markets, 2014-2017
  • Figure 12: Cellular data traffic per head of population per month, selected Western Europe markets, 2015 and 2016
  • Figure 13: Cellular data traffic, Western Europe, by market, 2014-2021
  • Figure 14: Annual rate of growth, cellular data traffic, selected Central and Eastern Europe markets, 2014-2017
  • Figure 15: Cellular data traffic per head of population per month, selected Central and Eastern Europe markets, 2015 and 2016
  • Figure 16: Cellular data traffic, Central and Eastern Europe, by market, 2014-2021
  • Figure 17: Annual rate of growth, cellular data traffic, selected MENA markets, 2014-2017
  • Figure 18: Cellular data traffic per head of population per month, selected MENA markets, 2015 and 2016
  • Figure 19: Cellular data traffic, MENA, by market, 2014-2021
  • Figure 20: Annual rate of growth, cellular data traffic, selected SSA markets, 2014-2017
  • Figure 21: Cellular data traffic per head of population per month, selected SSA markets, 2015 and 2016
  • Figure 22: Cellular data traffic, SSA, by market, 2014-2021
  • Figure 23: Annual rate of growth, cellular data traffic, selected emerging Asia-Pacific markets, 2014-2017
  • Figure 24: Cellular data traffic per head of population per month, selected emerging Asia-Pacific markets, 2015 and 2016
  • Figure 25: Cellular data traffic, emerging Asia-Pacific, by market, 2014-2021
  • Figure 26: Annual rate of growth, cellular data traffic, selected developed Asia-Pacific markets, 2014-2017
  • Figure 27: Cellular data traffic per head of population per month, selected developed Asia-Pacific markets, 2015 and 2016
  • Figure 28: Cellular data traffic, developed Asia-Pacific, by market, 2014-2021
  • Figure 29: Annual rate of growth, cellular data traffic, Canada and the USA, 2014-2017
  • Figure 30: Cellular data traffic per head of population per month, Canada and North America, 2015 and 2016
  • Figure 31: Cellular data traffic, North America, by market, 2014-2021
  • Figure 32: Annual rate of growth, cellular data traffic, selected Latin American markets, 2014-2017
  • Figure 33: Cellular data traffic per head of population per month, selected Latin American markets, 2015 and 2016
  • Figure 34: Cellular data traffic, Latin America, by market, 2014-2021
  • Figure 35a: Regional breakdown used in this report
  • Figure 35b: Regional breakdown used in this report
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