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市場調查報告書

西歐的智慧型手機市場趨勢·預測:2015-2020年

Smartphones in Western Europe: Trends and Forecasts 2015-2020

出版商 Analysys Mason 商品編碼 348316
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 30 Slides
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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西歐的智慧型手機市場趨勢·預測:2015-2020年 Smartphones in Western Europe: Trends and Forecasts 2015-2020
出版日期: 2016年01月06日 內容資訊: 英文 30 Slides
簡介

西歐的智慧型手機市場形成了創造新智慧型手機需求的消費者有轉換到4G服務的趨勢,以及抗拒購買新手機的消費者所產生的僅SIM之契約形態市場的出現這二個相反的力量。

本報告提供西歐的智慧型手機的市場相關調查,提供您全球智慧型手機市場現狀,西歐整體及主要國家的趨勢,行動終端的連線數及銷售台數的變化與預測,智慧型手機的佔有率等彙整資料。

調查資料

  • 連線數
    • 行動終端 (智慧型手機·BASIC酆)
    • 智慧型手機的佔有率
  • 銷售台數
    • 行動終端 (智慧型手機·BASIC酆)
    • 智慧型手機的佔有率

目錄

  • 摘要整理
  • 全球趨勢
    • 飽和的智慧型手機市場:業者及供應商必須重新評估優先權
    • 預計銷售台數的增加將仰賴新興市場,大部分來自亞太地區
    • 業者在大部分地區都是智慧型手機的主要來源,但形勢比其他流通管道都不利
    • 供應商的融資與其說正在急劇變化不如說是業者設備策略階段性轉移的試驗指標
    • 供應商的融資計劃在用戶已接受SIMonly契約的各國中成功可能性高
    • 業者的綁定套組有需求,在從預付轉換成綁約上達到重要作用
    • Apple領導高階市場,中國供應商獲得低階需求
    • 銷售台數上iOS的市場佔有率預計到2020年前將以約15%維持穩定
  • 地區趨勢:西歐
    • 4G的轉變推動智慧型手機的銷售額,但更換循環速度減低,SIM only的契約增加
    • 主要地區趨勢
    • 通訊業者在智慧型手機的供應鏈中依然扮演中心角色,但被多少零售業者奪去佔有率
    • 除了Android為主流的西班牙,NPS對Apple用戶的行動服務評分高
  • 各國的趨勢
    • 法國
    • 德國
    • 西班牙
    • 英國
  • 預測手法·前提條件
  • 關於著者及ANALYSYS MASON
  • 圖表
目錄

"Operators need to consider ways of controlling mobile churn that are less dependent on smartphones and adapt their device financing plans to the changes in the value chain."

Western European smartphone markets are driven by the opposing forces of consumers' migration to 4G services, which generates demand for new smartphones, and the emergence of SIM-only dynamics, which are partly driven by consumers' reluctance to replace their existing smartphones. We expect smartphone distribution channels to change too as vendor financing plans become more salient in the region.

This report and accompanying data annex provide:

  • regional forecasts for, and analysis of trends that affect, smartphone sales and penetration
  • country-level forecasts and trend analysis for France, Germany, Spain and the UK
  • operator and vendor approaches in the region, and in the aforementioned list of countries.

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE

Data and commentary are provided for the following countries in Western Europe.

Data is provided for the following countriesDetailed commentary is provided for the following countries
  • Austria
  • Belgium
  • Denmark
  • Finland
  • France
  • Germany
  • Greece
  • Ireland
  • Italy
  • Netherlands
  • Norway
  • Portugal
  • Spain
  • Sweden
  • Switzerland
  • UK
  • France
  • Germany
  • Spain
  • UK

DATA COVERAGE

Connections
  • Mobile handsets (smartphone or basic phone)
  • Smartphones' share
Unit sales
  • Mobile handsets (smartphone or basic phone)
  • Smartphones' share

About the authors

Kerem Arsal (Senior Analyst) is a key contributor to Analysys Mason's Mobile Services research programme, which helps operators to understand, and monetise to maximum efficiency, the interplay between voice, messaging and data services. His work involves in-depth coverage of issues such as customer retention, mobile data pricing, MVNO strategies, and the impact of regulation and roaming. Previously, Kerem was a research manager at Pyramid Research, where he was responsible for setting the thematic research agenda across multiple tracks and regions. He also headed numerous projects around operator strategies, as well as commercialisation of, and demand assessment for, new products in the consumer and enterprise segments.

Heenu Nihalani (Research Analyst) is a member of Analysys Mason's Consumer Services research team in London, contributing to the Mobile Services, Mobile Devices, Future Comms and Media, and Digital Economy Strategies research programmes. Prior to joining Analysys Mason, she worked as a financial knowledge broker in London, and as a journalist and copywriter in Hong Kong. Heenu holds an MSc in financial analysis from the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, and a Bachelor's degree in philosophy, politics and economics from the University of Warwick.

Table of Contents

  • 5.Executive summary
  • 6.Executive summary: Smartphone sales will benefit from 4G service take-up, but SIM-only plans will limit growth
  • 7.Worldwide trends
  • 8.Worldwide: Smartphone markets are saturating - operators and vendors must reassess their priorities
  • 9.Worldwide: Growth in unit sales will depend on emerging markets and will come mostly from emerging Asia-Pacific
  • 10.Worldwide: Operators are key sources of smartphones in most regions, but they lost some ground to other channels in 2015
  • 11.Worldwide: Vendor financing is the end-point of gradual shifts in operator device strategies rather than an abrupt change
  • 12.Worldwide: Vendor financing plans are most likely to succeed in countries where users are ready for SIM-only contracts
  • 13.Worldwide: Operator bundles are in demand and play a role in prepaid-to-postpaid migration
  • 14.Worldwide: Apple leads the high-end market and Chinese vendors are capturing demand at the low end
  • 15.Worldwide: iOS's market share of unit sales will remain stable at around 15% until 2020
  • 16.Regional trends
  • 17.Western Europe: Migration to 4G boosts smartphone sales, but replacement cycles are slow and SIM-only contracts grow
  • 18.Western Europe: Key regional trends
  • 19.Western Europe: Operators have lost ground to retailers in 2015, but they are still central to the smartphone supply chain
  • 20.Western Europe: Apple users score higher NPS for mobile services, except in Spain where Android dominates
  • 21.Country-level trends
  • 22.France: Operators focus on minimising upfront payments for smartphones; Windows Phones do reasonably well
  • 23.Germany: Smartphone sales will peak at 31 million units in 2018 as accumulated demand catches up
  • 24.Spain: Android continues to dominate although iOS mildly improves market share during flagship launches
  • 25.United Kingdom: Operators place iOS at the core of their portfolios and marketing efforts
  • 26.Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 27.Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 28.About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 29.About the authors
  • 30.About Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones' share of mobile handset unit sales, Western Europe, 2012-2020
  • Figure 2: Mobile handset unit sales by type, and smartphones' share of unit sales, worldwide, 2012-2020
  • Figure 3: Smartphone unit sales by region, 2014 and 2020
  • Figure 4: Percentage of respondents who bought their most recent handset from an operator, 16 countries, and averages for 2014 and 2015
  • Figure 5: Device bundling and financing plans by type
  • Figure 6: Seven areas of consideration for operators when assessing the potential impact of SIM-only and vendor financing take-up
  • Figure 7: Choice of next mobile tariff type among those that plan to change their tariffs, by current tariff type, 6 European countries, US and South Korea
  • Figure 8: Choice of next mobile tariff type among those that plan to change their tariffs, by current tariff base, 8 countries in MEA and emerging APAC
  • Figure 9: Smartphone unit sales by manufacturer, worldwide, 2012-2020
  • Figure 10: Smartphone unit sales by operating system, worldwide, 2012-2020
  • Figure 11: Mobile handset connections by type, and smartphones' share of connections, Western Europe, 2012-2020
  • Figure 12: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones' share of mobile handset unit sales, Western Europe, 2012-2020
  • Figure 13: Key regional trends in handset markets, Western Europe
  • Figure 14: Most recent handset purchase by channel and country, 2015, and 2014 comparison for operators
  • Figure 15: Operators as a channel for smartphones and iPhones, and NPS differential of Apple users for mobile services, 2015
  • Figure 16: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones' share of mobile handset unit sales, France, 2012-2020
  • Figure 17: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones' share of mobile handset unit sales, Germany, 2012-2020
  • Figure 18: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones' share of mobile handset unit sales, Spain, 2012-2020
  • Figure 19: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones' share in total handset sales, United Kingdom, 2012-2020
  • Figure 20: Main enablers and constraints for our smartphone forecasts
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