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市場調查報告書

智慧型手機:全球趨勢與預測 2015-2020年

Smartphones: Worldwide Trends and Forecasts 2015-2020

出版商 Analysys Mason 商品編碼 347792
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 49 Slides
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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智慧型手機:全球趨勢與預測 2015-2020年 Smartphones: Worldwide Trends and Forecasts 2015-2020
出版日期: 2015年12月22日 內容資訊: 英文 49 Slides
簡介

本報告涵括全球智慧型手機市場,提供您全球8地區·66個國家的智慧型手機市場預測(台數·供應商·OS),並彙整變化中的銷售額流通管道動態,供應商融資及SIMonly契約的業者策略,及全球·地區的主要趨勢。

目錄

預測摘要

全球趨勢

  • 飽和的智慧型手機市場:業者·供應商必須再評估優先順序
  • 銷售台數的增加仰賴新興市場,大部分來自亞太地區
  • 業者在許多地區中是智慧型手機的主要來源、對其他流通管道不利
  • 供應商的融資與其說是突然變化不如說是業者的設備策略中階段性變化的終點
  • 供應商的融資計劃在已備好SIMonly契約用戶的國家中成功的可能性高
  • 業者有需要綁定套組,此外綁定套組也在預付轉換到月租型中扮演重要的角色
  • Apple領導高階市場,中國的供應商獲得低階的需求
  • iOS市場銷售台數佔有率預計到2020年以約15%維持穩定

西歐

  • 轉換到4G推動了智慧型手機的銷售額,但替換循環速度減低,SIMonly契約增加
  • 主要地區趨勢

中東歐

  • 儘管主要市場上的經濟障礙,智慧型手機銷售額仍預計穩定增加
  • 主要地區趨勢

中東·北非

  • 汰換活動的劇增及潛在的初次買主多推動成長
  • 主要地區趨勢

撒哈拉以南非洲

  • 低定價模式依然對智慧型手機引進來說相當重要,但仍留有結構性的課題
  • 主要地區趨勢

新興亞太地區

  • Apple帶來高階部門成長但智慧型手機市場成長停滯
  • 主要地區趨勢

先進亞太地區

  • 為了刺激需求業者及供應商轉換到新的設備融資·升級計劃
  • 主要地區趨勢

北美

  • 為了刺激需求業者及供應商轉換到新的設備融資·升級計劃
  • 主要地區趨勢

南美

  • 由於行動數據連接·價格改善,智慧型手機需求持續穩定
  • 主要地區趨勢

預測手法·前提條件

關於著者及ANALYSYS MASON

圖表清單

目錄

"Operators in developed markets can maintain relevance as smartphone providers by adapting their device portfolios and bundles to changes in replacement cycles, while those in emerging markets will face the challenge of providing smartphones to users who are predominantly on prepaid subscriptions."

In many developed markets, it will be difficult to increase annual unit sales of smartphones because high levels of adoption will limit the number of first-time buyers, consumers are difficult to impress with incremental innovation and interest in SIM-only contracts is on the rise. Emerging markets will provide almost all of the growth in smartphone unit sales between 2015 and 2020.

This report provides:

  • forecasts for smartphone markets (units, vendors, OS) worldwide, for 8 regions and for 66 countries
  • operator strategies for changing sales channel dynamics, vendor financing and SIM-only contracts
  • key worldwide and regional trends.

DATA COVERAGE

The data annex to this report provides the following data for mobile handsets.

     Mobile connections
  • by type (smartphone or basic)
  • by region
  • by country
     Unit sales
  • by type (smartphone or basic)
  • by region
  • by country

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE

The data annex provides data for 66 countries in the following regions.

Regions

  • Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)
  • Developed Asia-Pacific (DVAP)
  • Emerging Asia-Pacific (EMAP)
  • Latin America (LATAM)
  • Middle East and North Africa (MENA)
  • North America (NA)
  • Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)
  • Western Europe (WE)

Table of Contents

  • 7.Forecast summary
  • 8.Executive summary
  • 9.Worldwide trends
  • 10.Smartphone markets are saturating - operators and vendors must reassess their priorities
  • 11.Growth in unit sales will depend on emerging markets and will come mostly from emerging Asia-Pacific
  • 12.Operators are key sources of smartphones in most regions, but they lost some ground to other channels in 2015
  • 13.Vendor financing is the end-point of gradual shifts in operator device strategies rather than an abrupt change
  • 14.Vendor financing plans are most likely to succeed in countries where users are ready for SIM-only contracts
  • 15.Operator bundles are in demand and play a role in prepaid-to-postpaid migration
  • 16.Apple leads the high-end market and Chinese vendors are capturing demand at the low end
  • 17.iOS's market share of unit sales will remain stable at around 15% until 2020
  • 18.Western Europe
  • 19.Migration to 4G boosts smartphone sales, but replacement cycles are slow and SIM-only contracts grow
  • 20.Key regional trends
  • 21.Central and Eastern Europe
  • 22.Smartphone sales will grow strongly despite economic obstacles in key markets
  • 23.Key regional trends
  • 24.Middle East and North Africa
  • 25.Surges in replacement activity and a large pool of potential first-time buyers will drive growth
  • 26.Key regional trends
  • 27.Sub-Saharan Africa
  • 28.Low-cost models are still critical to smartphone adoption, but structural challenges remain
  • 29.Key regional trends
  • 30.Emerging Asia-Pacific
  • 31.Low penetration rates and demand for mobile data usage will boost smartphone sales
  • 32.Key regional trends
  • 33.Developed Asia-Pacific
  • 34.Apple provides growth in the high-end segment in an otherwise stalling smartphone market
  • 35.Key regional trends
  • 36.North America
  • 37.Operators and vendors switch to new device financing and upgrade plans to stimulate demand
  • 38.Key regional trends
  • 39.Latin America
  • 40.Demand for smartphones remains strong as mobile data connectivity and prices improve
  • 41.Key regional trends
  • 42.Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 43.Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 44.About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 45.About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 46.About Analysys Mason
  • 47.Research from Analysys Mason
  • 48.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Mobile handset unit sales by type, and smartphones' share of unit sales, worldwide, 2012-2020
  • Figure 2: Mobile handset unit sales by type, and smartphones' share of unit sales, worldwide, 2012-2020
  • Figure 3: Smartphone unit sales by region, 2014 and 2020
  • Figure 4: Percentage of respondents who bought their most recent handset from an operator, 16 countries, and averages for 2014 and 2015
  • Figure 5: Device bundling and financing plans by type
  • Figure 6: Seven areas of consideration for operators when assessing the potential impact of SIM-only and vendor financing take-up
  • Figure 7: Choice of next mobile tariff by type among those who plan to change their tariffs, by current tariff type, 6 European countries, USA and South Korea
  • Figure 8: Choice of next mobile tariff by type among those who plan to change their tariffs, by current tariff type, 8 countries in MEA and emerging APAC
  • Figure 9: Smartphone unit sales by manufacturer, worldwide, 2012-2020
  • Figure 10: Smartphone unit sales by operating system, worldwide, 2012-2020
  • Figure 11: Mobile handset connections by type, and smartphones' share of connections, Western Europe, 2012-2020
  • Figure 12: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones' share of mobile handset unit sales, Western Europe, 2012-2020
  • Figure 13: Key regional trends in handset markets, Western Europe
  • Figure 14: Mobile handset connections by type, and smartphones' share of connections, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012-2020
  • Figure 15: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones' share of mobile handset unit sales, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012-2020
  • Figure 16: Key regional trends in handset markets, Central and Eastern Europe
  • Figure 17: Mobile handset connections by type, and smartphones' share of connections, Middle East and North Africa, 2012-2020
  • Figure 18: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones' share of mobile handset unit sales, Middle East and North Africa, 2012-2020
  • Figure 19: Key regional trends in handset markets, Middle East and North Africa
  • Figure 20: Mobile handset connections by type, and smartphones' share of connections, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012-2020
  • Figure 21: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones' share of mobile handset unit sales, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012-2020
  • Figure 22: Key regional trends in handset markets, Sub-Saharan Africa
  • Figure 23: Mobile handset connections by type, and smartphones' share of connections, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2012-2020
  • Figure 24: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones' share of mobile handset unit sales, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2012-2020
  • Figure 25: Key regional trends in handset markets, emerging Asia-Pacific
  • Figure 26: Mobile handset connections by type, and smartphones' share of connections, developed Asia-Pacific, 2012-2020
  • Figure 27: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones' share of mobile handset unit sales, developed Asia-Pacific, 2012-2020
  • Figure 28: Key regional trends in handset markets, developed Asia-Pacific
  • Figure 29: Mobile handset connections by type, and smartphones' share of connections, North America, 2012-2020
  • Figure 30: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones' share of mobile handset unit sales, North America, 2012-2020
  • Figure 31: Key regional trends in handset markets, North America
  • Figure 32: Mobile handset connections by type, and smartphones' share of connections, Latin America, 2012-2020
  • Figure 33: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones' share of mobile handset unit sales, Latin America, 2012-2020
  • Figure 34: Key regional trends in handset markets, Latin America
  • Figure 35: Main enablers and constraints for our smartphone forecasts
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