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市場調查報告書

中東歐的固定通訊服務的趨勢與預測:2015-2020年

Fixed Services in Central and Eastern Europe: Trends and Forecasts 2015-2020

出版商 Analysys Mason 商品編碼 346268
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 31 Slides
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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中東歐的固定通訊服務的趨勢與預測:2015-2020年 Fixed Services in Central and Eastern Europe: Trends and Forecasts 2015-2020
出版日期: 2015年12月07日 內容資訊: 英文 31 Slides
簡介

中東歐 (CEE) 的家庭寬頻普及率預測將從2014年的46%成長到2020年的55%。光纖這個地區支配性固定寬頻技術預測將在2015年超越DSL,藉由持續發展及用戶由DSL改用光纖而持續強力成長。IPTV固定寬頻連接率預測將由2014年的11%擴大到2020年的13%,IPTV連接數的增加預測在電纜服務範圍少的各國中將呈現最強力成長。

本報告提供中東歐 (CEE) 的固定通訊服務市場上各種趨勢相關調查分析,提供您地區市場的趨勢分析,彙整全球性背景,地區性分析及4個國家相關評論,市場專家的預測等資料。

目錄

摘要整理

全球趨勢

  • 中東歐由於激烈競爭,成長預計將比其他地區來得弱
  • FTTH/B連接擴大到4億2500萬,佔固定寬頻連接整體的44%
  • 由於人口平均GDP的成長與網路發展,家庭普及率預計從39%擴大到48%

地區趨勢

  • 通訊收益雖然繼續減少,但由於固定寬頻及收費電視業務收益擴大了用戶基礎群,預計仍會成長
  • 在語音用戶加速轉換到VoBB的同時,固定寬頻的成長預計將減速
  • 預測家庭普及率將持續擴大,但速度緩慢,且不同國家差異甚大
  • 14個國家各自模式化,俄羅斯和土耳其合計佔地區整體收益的58%
  • 寬頻·網路電視的收益,因服務收益增加,將以1.9%的年複合成長率擴大

各國趨勢

  • 捷克:寬頻的費用競爭及對語音的興趣不大造成固定市場上收益低
  • 波蘭:為了提供客戶更快速的服務與移動,寬頻ASPU穩定,網路四合一服務的影響有限
  • 俄羅斯:FTTH/B的發展促進固定寬頻的擴大,ISP的地區性片斷化抑制寬頻ASPU低
  • 土耳其:在光纖發展與經濟環境的改善互相影響下,更進一步推動固定寬頻的成長

預測手法·前提條件

著者·Analysys Mason

圖表清單

目錄

"Fixed services will continue to be crucial for fixed operators' revenue in the CEE region, and speed, quality of service and customer experience will be important differentiators as demand for IP video services increases."

We expect that household broadband penetration in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) will grow from 46% in 2014 to 55% in 2020. Fibre will overtake DSL as the region's dominant fixed broadband technology in 2015, and will continue to grow strongly as roll-out continues and users migrate from DSL. IPTV will account for 13% of fixed broadband connections in 2020, up from 11% in 2014, and IPTV connection growth will be strongest in countries with poor cable coverage.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • commentary and trend analysis to support our 5-year forecast for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)
  • worldwide context, regional analysis and commentary on four countries: Czech Republic, Poland, Russia and Turkey
  • forecasting informed by on-the-ground market experts from our Research and Consulting divisions. We also draw upon Analysys Mason's Telecoms Market Matrix, a comprehensive source of trusted quarterly data that sizes European telecoms markets.

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE

Countries modelled individuallyDetailed country commentary

 

  • Bulgaria
  • Croatia
  • Czech Republic
  • Estonia
  • Hungary
  • Latvia
  • Lithuania
  • Poland
  • Romania
  • Russia
  • Slovakia
  • Slovenia
  • Turkey
  • Ukraine

 

  • Czech Republic
  • Poland
  • Russia
  • Turkey

DATA COVERAGE

Fixed connections
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTH/B, cable, BFWA, other
Fixed revenue
  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS
  • DSL, FTTH/B, cable, BFWA, other
Fixed voice traffic
  • Outgoing minutes, MoU
Voice traffic
  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

About the author

Julia Martusewicz-Kulinska (Senior Analyst) is a member of the regional markets research team, contributing mainly to the European Core Forecasts, Telecoms Market Matrix and European Country Reports programmes. She has more than 14 years of research and telecoms industry regulations experience. Prior to joining Analysys Mason, she worked for the Polish national regulatory authority as the head of the Research Division, where she was responsible for telecoms market research, and as the leader of the Telecommunications Market Analysis Department, which was accountable for co-operation between the regulatory authority and the Information Society and Media DG of the European Commission.

Table of Contents

  • 5. Executive Summary
  • 6. Executive Summary
  • 7. Worldwide trends
  • 8. Worldwide: Central and Eastern Europe will have weaker growth than other regions to 2020, due to strong competition
  • 9. Worldwide: FTTH/B connections will increase to 425 million, accounting for 44% of total fixed broadband connections
  • 10. Worldwide: Household penetration will increase from 39% to 48% because of GDP per capita growth and network roll-out
  • 11. Regional trends
  • 12. CEE: Telecoms revenue will decline, but fixed broadband and pay-TV services revenue will grow as their user bases increase
  • 13. CEE: Migration of voice users to VoBB will accelerate, while fixed broadband growth will slow down
  • 14. CEE: Household penetration will continue to increase, but at a slower pace and with significant country-by-country variations
  • 15. CEE: 14 countries modelled individually, and Turkey and Russia together account for 58% of the entire region's revenue
  • 16. CEE: Broadband and IPTV revenue will grow at a CAGR of 1.9% as a result of increasing service take-up
  • 17. Country-level trends
  • 18. Czech Republic: Price competition in broadband and lack of interest in voice will drive down revenue in the fixed market
  • 19. Poland: Broadband ASPU will be stable as customers move to faster services, and quadruple-play's impact will be limited
  • 20. Russia: FTTH/B roll-out will drive fixed broadband growth, and regional fragmentation of ISPs will limit broadband ASPU decline
  • 21. Turkey: Fibre development, combined with an improved economic environment, will drive further fixed broadband growth
  • 22. Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 23. We have a disciplined process of forecasting; our on-the-ground analysts and consultants collaborate closely to assess market dynamics
  • 24. Our forecasts are informed by primary and secondary research for data collection, a rigorous methodology and our analysis of external drivers
  • 25. A robust and comparable set of historical data is the starting point for our forecasts; this involves three main activities
  • 26. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 27. About the author
  • 28. About Analysys Mason
  • 29. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 30. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Central and Eastern Europe, 2010-2020
  • Figure 2: CAGRs for fixed and mobile retail revenue (2014-2020) and market size by total retail revenue (2020), by region, worldwide
  • Figure 3: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, worldwide, 2010-2020
  • Figure 4: Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, worldwide, 2010-2020
  • Figure 5: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, Central and Eastern Europe, 2010-2020
  • Figure 6: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014-2020
  • Figure 7: Connections by type, and growth rates, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014-2020
  • Figure 8: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, Central and Eastern Europe, 2010-2020
  • Figure 9: Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2010-2020
  • Figure 10: Mobile connections by technology generation and NGA's share of fixed broadband connections, by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2020
  • Figure 11: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Central and Eastern Europe, 2010-2020
  • Figure 12: Fixed ASPU by service type, Central and Eastern Europe, 2010-2020
  • Figure 13: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Central and Eastern Europe
  • Figure 14: Total fixed retail revenue, fixed broadband and IPTV revenue and CAGR, Czech Republic, 2014-2020
  • Figure 15: Total fixed retail revenue, fixed broadband and IPTV revenue and CAGR, Poland, 2014-2020
  • Figure 16: Total fixed retail revenue, fixed broadband and IPTV revenue and CAGR, Russia, 2014-2020
  • Figure 17: Total fixed retail revenue, fixed broadband and IPTV revenue and CAGR, Turkey, 2014-2020
  • Figure 18: Data, research principles and external factors that inform our forecasting methodology
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