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市場調查報告書

中東歐的行動服務的趨勢與預測:2015-2020年

Mobile Services in Central and Eastern Europe: Trends and Forecasts 2015-2020

出版商 Analysys Mason 商品編碼 346137
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 34 Slides
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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中東歐的行動服務的趨勢與預測:2015-2020年 Mobile Services in Central and Eastern Europe: Trends and Forecasts 2015-2020
出版日期: 2015年12月02日 內容資訊: 英文 34 Slides
簡介

中東歐 (CEE) 的行動服務收益在2014年佔全球行動服務收益的5.9%,行動連線的7.9%。預測到2020年前CEE的收益佔有率將縮小5.1%,連接佔有率縮小6.0%。2014年行動零售收益佔地區整體零售收益的65%,這個比例預測到2020年前將有所變化。但行動零售收益整體的規,預計在預測期間將由486億美元減少到462億美元。

本報告提供中東歐 (CEE) 的行動服務市場上各種趨勢相關調查分析,提供您地區市場的趨勢分析,彙整全球性背景,地區的分析及4個國家相關評論,市場專家的預測等資料。

目錄

摘要整理

全球趨勢

  • 新興地區預測收益成長最高,零售收益最大則為北美
  • 行動普及率,受到SSA,EMAP,及DVAP地區的服務普及所推動,預測在2020年前擴大到108%
  • 一方面在NA (92%) 及DVAP (5%) 中LTE的連接佔有率最高,SSA則大大落後 (5%)
  • 成熟地區的競爭,OTT服務及匯聚綁定套組面臨降低ARPU的壓力

地區趨勢

  • 通訊收益雖然持續減少,但是行動終端資料預計將以10.4%的年複合成長率成長
  • 多SIM整合預計成為許多國家中行動普及率穩定或降低的原因
  • 4G發展在預測期間內加速
  • 各種模式化,俄羅斯和土耳其的總合佔14個國家地區整體收益的58%
  • 智慧型手機需求未朝4G發展的地區也持續穩定成長
  • 在預測期間內許多國家ARPU踏實減少
  • 行動收益因為終端資料收益無法填補語音·SMS損失,將減少240萬美元

各國趨勢

  • 捷克:ARPU的減少大幅減速,但競爭持續促成收益的減少
  • 波蘭:儘管價格競爭強化了基本客群,仍面臨降低ARPU的壓力
  • 俄羅斯:市場整合推動了連線數的減少和競爭加劇
  • 土耳其:2014年中行動ARPU透過法規保持穩定,加上4G的出現更進一步強化,刺激收益成長

預測手法·前提條件

著者·Analysys Mason

圖表清單

目錄

"Over-the-top services remain a key threat to mobile revenue growth in Central and Eastern Europe. Data revenue will grow strongly, but this will be offset by the decline in revenue from traditional services such as SMS and voice."

Mobile services revenue in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) accounted for 5.9% of worldwide mobile services revenue, and 7.9% of mobile connections in 2014. By 2020, we expect CEE's revenue share to shrink to 5.1%, and the connection share to 6.0%. Mobile retail revenue accounted for 65% of the region's total retail revenue in 2014, and this proportion will remain unchanged in 2020. However, total mobile retail revenue will decline during the forecast period, from USD48.6 billion to USD46.2billion.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • commentary and trend analysis to support our 5-year forecast for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)
  • worldwide context, regional analysis and commentary on four countries: Czech Republic, Poland, Russia and Turkey
  • forecasting informed by on-the-ground market experts from our Research and Consulting divisions. We also draw upon Analysys Mason's Telecoms Market Matrix, a comprehensive source of trusted quarterly data that sizes European telecoms markets.

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE

Countries modelled individuallyDetailed country commentary

 

  • Bulgaria
  • Croatia
  • Czech Republic
  • Estonia
  • Hungary
  • Latvia
  • Lithuania
  • Poland
  • Romania
  • Russia
  • Slovakia
  • Slovenia
  • Turkey
  • Ukraine

 

  • Czech Republic
  • Poland
  • Russia
  • Turkey

DATA COVERAGE

Mobile connections
  • Handset, mobile broadband1, M2M2
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G (LTE)
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone
Mobile revenue
  • Service3, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband1, M2M2
  • Handset voice, messaging, data
Mobile ARPU
  • SIMS, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data
Voice traffic
  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

1Includes USB modem, and mid- and large-screen, though not handset-based data.

2M2M connections and revenue figures include mobile services only.

3Service revenue is the sum of retail and wholesale revenue.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Julia Martusewicz-Kulinska (Senior Analyst) is a member of the regional markets research team, contributing mainly to the European Core Forecasts, Telecoms Market Matrix and European Country Reports programmes. She has more than 14 years of research and telecoms industry regulations experience. Prior to joining Analysys Mason, she worked for the Polish national regulatory authority as the head of the Research Division, where she was responsible for telecoms market research, and as the leader of the Telecommunications Market Analysis Department, which was accountable for co-operation between the regulatory authority and the Information Society and Media DG of the European Commission.

Table of Contents

  • 5.Executive Summary
  • 6. Executive Summary
  • 7. Worldwide trends
  • 8. Worldwide: Developing regions will have the highest revenue growth, but North America will have the largest retail revenue
  • 9. Worldwide: Mobile penetration will increase to 108% by 2020, driven by service take-up in the SSA, EMAP and DVAP regions
  • 10. Worldwide: LTE's share of connections will be the highest in NA (92%) and DVAP (84%), while SSA will lag behind (5%)
  • 11. Worldwide: Competition in mature regions, OTT services and converged bundles will have a downward pressure on ARPU
  • 12. Regional trends
  • 13. CEE: Telecoms revenue will continue to decline, but mobile handset data will grow at a CAGR of 10.4%
  • 14. CEE: Multiple-SIM consolidation will cause mobile penetration to stabilise or decline in most countries
  • 15. CEE: 4G roll-out will gather pace during the forecast period
  • 16. CEE: 14 countries modelled individually, Russia and Turkey combined account for 58% of the entire region's revenue
  • 17. CEE: Smartphone demand will continue to grow strongly, even in countries where 4G is less advanced
  • 18. CEE: ARPU will decline steadily in most countries during the forecast period
  • 19. CEE: Mobile revenue will drop to USD2.4 million as handset data revenue will not fully offset voice and SMS losses
  • 20. Country-level trends
  • 21. Czech Republic: ARPU decline will significantly slow down, but competition will continue to drive down revenue
  • 22. Poland: Price competition will put downward pressure on ARPU, despite the enrichment of the customer base
  • 23. Russia: Market consolidation will drive a decline in the number of connections and stimulate competition
  • 24. Turkey: Regulation kept mobile ARPU stable in 2014 and 4G's arrival will bolster it further, fuelling revenue growth
  • 25. Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 26. We have a disciplined process of forecasting; our on-the-ground analysts and consultants collaborate closely to assess market dynamics
  • 27. Our forecasts are informed by primary and secondary research for data collection, a rigorous methodology and our analysis of external drivers
  • 28. A robust and comparable set of historical data is the starting point for our forecasts; this involves three main activities
  • 29. About the author and Analysys Mason
  • 30. About the authors
  • 31. About Analysys Mason
  • 32. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 33. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Central and Eastern Europe, 2010-2020
  • Figure 2: CAGRs for fixed and mobile retail revenue (2014-2020) and market size by total retail revenue (2020), by region, worldwide
  • Figure 3: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), worldwide, 2010-2020
  • Figure 4: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), worldwide, 2014 and 2020
  • Figure 5: Mobile ARPU by region and worldwide, 2010-2020
  • Figure 6: Telecoms retail mobile revenue by service type and mobile ARPU, Central and Eastern Europe, 2010-2020
  • Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014-2020
  • Figure 8: Connections by type, and growth rates, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014-2020
  • Figure 9a: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Central and Eastern Europe, 2010-2020
  • Figure 9b: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Central and Eastern Europe, 2010-2020
  • Figure 10: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G and 4G's share of connections, Central and Eastern Europe, 2010-2020
  • Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation and NGA's share of fixed broadband connections, by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2020
  • Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), Central and Eastern Europe, 2014 and 2020
  • Figure 13a: Mobile ARPU by country, Central Europe, 2010-2020
  • Figure 13b: Mobile ARPU by country, Eastern Europe, 2010-2020
  • Figure 14: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, CEE, 2010-2020
  • Figure 15: Mobile ARPU by type, CEE, 2010-2020
  • Figure 16: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Central and Eastern Europe
  • Figure 17: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Czech Republic, 2014-2020
  • Figure 18: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Poland, 2014-2020
  • Figure 19: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Russia, 2014-2020
  • Figure 20: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Turkey, 2014-2020
  • Figure 21: Data, research principles and external factors that inform our forecasting methodology
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