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市場調查報告書

中東歐的行動服務的趨勢與預測:2016-2021年

Mobile Services in Central and Eastern Europe: Trends and Forecasts 2016-2021

出版商 Analysys Mason 商品編碼 346137
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 34 Slides
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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中東歐的行動服務的趨勢與預測:2016-2021年 Mobile Services in Central and Eastern Europe: Trends and Forecasts 2016-2021
出版日期: 2017年02月15日 內容資訊: 英文 34 Slides
簡介

本報告以中東歐 (CEE) 的行動服務市場為研究主題,提供全球市場及地區市場趨勢分析,及技術進步、基礎設施開發的展望等。

目錄

摘要整理

全球趨勢

  • 全球收益,由網路發展中基礎設施投資所促進,預計在行動、固定市場區隔增加
  • EMAP (新興亞太地區) 及SSA (撒哈拉以南非洲) 的需求,及普及快速,推動全球普及率至2021年達105%
  • 預計智慧型手機構成全球終端的其中69%,普及率以NA (95%) 及WE (92%) 變得最高
  • 行動ARPU:高競爭層級及OTT服務的替代,繼續增加ARPU的下方壓力

地區趨勢

  • 語音的貶值促進收益下降,不過,行動終端資料收益預計至2021年增加到80%
  • 在大部分的CEE各國行動普及率下降,2021年平均達到CEE人口的142%
  • 僅管土耳其、烏克蘭的銷售延期,4G在行動連線的佔有率預計至2021年達到50%
  • 地區涵蓋範圍:CEE的NGA寬頻上網技術具支配性,預計至2021年構成4G連接整體半數
  • 智慧型手機平均構成終端的78%,預計LTE技術構成行動連線整體半數
  • 由於價格競爭激化,平均ARPU在全CEE各國下降,不過預計至2021年降幅減緩
  • 由於價格競爭加劇,預計許多CEE國家的ARPU下降,但降幅減緩

預測手法、前提條件

著者、Analysys Mason

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目錄

"Mobile penetration in most CEE countries will decline as consumers continue to migrate from multiple-SIM ownership as contract plans become more affordable."

Obligatory prepaid registration in many countries in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) will slow the rate of mobile penetration growth, mostly in the prepaid segment. Turkey will be the only country with increasing mobile penetration during the forecast period because the market is not yet saturated and service demand is high.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • commentary and trend analysis to support our 5-year forecast for CEE
  • an outlook for technology improvements and infrastructure developments
  • forecasts that are informed by on-the-ground market experts from our Research and Consulting divisions, and external interviews.

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE

  • Bulgaria
  • Croatia
  • Czech Republic
  • Estonia
  • Hungary
  • Latvia
  • Lithuania
  • Montenegro
  • Poland
  • Romania
  • Russia
  • Serbia
  • Slovakia
  • Slovenia
  • Turkey
  • Ukraine

DATA COVERAGE

Mobile connections
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone
Mobile revenue
  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Handset voice, messaging, data
Mobile ARPU
  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data
Voice traffic
  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Lee Giet (Research Analyst) is a member of the regional markets research team in London, contributing mainly to the Telecoms Market Matrix, European Core Forecasts, European Country Reports and Global Telecoms Forecasts research programmes. Lee holds a BSc in Physics from University College London (UCL).

Kerem Arsal (Principal Analyst) is a key contributor to Analysys Mason's Mobile Services research programme, which helps operators to understand, and monetise to maximum efficiency, the interplay between voice, messaging and data services. His work involves in-depth coverage of issues such as customer retention, mobile data pricing, MVNO strategies, and the impact of regulation and roaming. Previously, Kerem was a research manager at Pyramid Research, where he was responsible for setting the thematic research agenda across multiple tracks and regions. He also headed numerous projects around operator strategies, as well as commercialisation of, and demand assessment for, new products in the consumer and enterprise segments.

Table of Contents

  • 6. Executive summary
  • 7. Worldwide trends
  • 8. Revenue worldwide will increase in the mobile and fixedsegments driven by infrastructure investments in network roll-out
  • 9. Demand for, and the fast pace of take-up of, mobile in EMAP and SSA will boost penetration to 105% worldwide by 2021Worldwide slide 3
  • 10. Smartphones will account for 69% of handsets worldwide and take-up will be highest in NA (95%) and WE (93%)
  • 11. Mobile ARPU: The high level of competition and substitution by OTT services will continue to put downward pressure on ARPU
  • 12. Regional trends
  • 13. Voice depreciation will drive revenue decline, but mobile handset data revenue will increase by 80% by 2021
  • 14. Mobile penetration will decline in most CEE countries, reaching an average of 142% of the CEE population in 2021
  • 15. The 4G share of all mobile connections will reach 50% by 2021, despite delayed launches in Turkey and Ukraine
  • 16. Geographical coverage: CEE will be dominated by NGA broadband access technology; 4G will account for half of all connections by 2021
  • 17. Smartphones will account, on average, for 78% of handsets; LTE technology will account for half of all mobile connections
  • 18. Average ARPU will decline in most CEE countries due to intense price competition, but the decline will slow down by 2021
  • 19. ARPU will decline in most countries in CEE due to intense price competition but the decline will be slow
  • 20. Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 21. Methodology slide 1
  • 22. Methodology slide 2
  • 23. Methodology slide 3
  • 24. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 25. About the authors
  • 26. About Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Central and Eastern Europe, 2011-2021
  • Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by type and country, worldwide, 2015-2021
  • Figure 3: Active mobile SIM penetration by region (excluding IoT), worldwide, 2011-2021
  • Figure 4: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and 4G/5G's share of total connections (excluding IoT), worldwide, 2015 and 2021
  • Figure 5: Mobile ARPU (excluding IoT) by region and worldwide, 2011-2021
  • Figure 6: Mobile retail revenue by service type, and ARPU, Central and Eastern Europe, 2011-2021
  • Figure 7: Mobile retail revenue by service type, and growth rates, Central and Eastern Europe, 2015-2021
  • Figure 8: Connections by type, and growth rates, Central and Eastern Europe, 2015-2021
  • Figure 9a: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding IoT), Central and Eastern Europe, 2011-2021
  • Figure 9b: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding IoT), Central and Eastern Europe, 2011-2021
  • Figure 10: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding IoT), and 3G, 4G and 5G's share of connections, Central and Eastern Europe, 2011-2021
  • Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation and NGA's share of fixed broadband connections, by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2021
  • Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding IoT), Central and Eastern Europe, 2015 and 2021
  • Figure 13a: Mobile ARPU by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2011-2021
  • Figure 13b: Mobile ARPU by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2011-2021
  • Figure 14: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Central and Eastern Europe, 2011-2021
  • Figure 15: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Central and Eastern Europe, 2011-2021
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