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市場調查報告書

西歐的行動服務的趨勢與預測:2017-2022年

Mobile Services in Western Europe: Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022

出版商 Analysys Mason 商品編碼 345545
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 28 Slides
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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西歐的行動服務的趨勢與預測:2017-2022年 Mobile Services in Western Europe: Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022
出版日期: 2017年10月19日 內容資訊: 英文 28 Slides
簡介

西歐的行動市場正在繼續成熟,漸漸成為資料中心。預計到2022年前4G將佔行動連線的83%。

本報告網羅西歐的行動服務市場,提供全球,各地區以及各國的市場分析·5年預測。

摘要整理

全球趨勢

  • 行動服務收益,預計在預測期間將繼續成長,2022年達到8,630億美元

地區趨勢

  • 數據收入將繼續成長,行動收益預計將受傳統服務收入下降的趨勢推動
  • 普及率:用戶基礎將停滯不前,但合約中附加的SIM卡預計將限制下降
  • 連接:頻譜重組將有助於4G增長,但傳統網絡的大規模退役是不可能的
  • 智慧型手機和LTE:到2020年,智慧型手機在大多數國家的普及率將超過90%
  • 行動寬頻:智慧型手機的網路共享及連接平板電腦的吸引力不足將造成專用數據連接的下降
  • ARPU:ARPU在大多數國家將繼續下滑,歐盟法規將對盈利能力產生負面影響
  • 數據和收入來源:無限費用,網路中立性提升和漫遊費率降低將推動數據使用

各國趨勢

  • 法國:4G普及率的增加將推動數據消費,並減緩行動零售收益的下滑
  • 德國:收益雖然增長,但速度很慢
  • 意大利:Iliad的到來將推動手機的ASPU
  • 西班牙:內容服務和日益增長的LTE人口覆蓋率將保持手機數據收入的增長
  • 英國:Brexit的前景增加了經濟前景的不確定性

著者及 Analysys Mason

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目錄

"Mobile data revenue will continue to increase throughout Western Europe, but overall mobile service revenue will decline over the next 5 years, driven by falling voice revenue."

The Western European mobile market continues to mature and is becoming increasingly data-centric. 83% of mobile connections will be 4G by 2022. We examine key trends and drivers and provide a comprehensive mobile telecoms market forecast for the region and for 16 individually modelled countries in this report.

This report provides:

  • a 5-year forecast of 224 mobile KPIs for the Western European region and for sixteen key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile service, and for key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, which highlight similarities and differences between countries
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile operators.

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE

Countries modelled individuallyDetailed country commentary
  • Austria
  • Belgium
  • Denmark
  • Finland
  • France
  • Germany
  • Greece
  • Ireland
  • Italy
  • Netherlands
  • Norway
  • Portugal
  • Spain
  • Sweden
  • Switzerland
  • UK
  • France
  • Germany
  • Italy
  • Spain
  • UK

DATA COVERAGE

Mobile connections
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone
Mobile revenue
  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Handset voice, messaging, data
Mobile ARPU
  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data
Voice traffic
  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Simon Lumb (Research Analyst) is a member of the regional markets research team in London, contributing primarily to the Telecoms Market Matrix, European Core Forecasts, European Country Reports and Global Core Data research programmes. Simon holds a BSc in Physics from Durham University, and during his studies conducted research on the collision of galaxies and helped to develop a GPS tracking system for a start-up company.

Table of Contents

  • 5. Executive summary
  • 6. Revenue trends are improving in many countries, but mobile revenue will continue to decline
  • 7. Worldwide trends
  • 8. Worldwide: Mobile service revenue will continue to increase in the forecast period, reaching USD863 billion in 2022
  • 9. Regional trends
  • 10. Data revenue will continue to increase, but mobile revenue will be driven by declining traditional service revenue
  • 11. Penetration: User bases will be stagnant, but additional SIMs bundled in contracts will limit decline
  • 12. Connections: Spectrum refarming will help 4G growth, but large-scale decommissioning of legacy networks is unlikely
  • 13. Smartphones and LTE: Smartphones will exceed 90% penetration in most countries by 2020
  • 14. Mobile broadband: Smartphone tethering and lack of interest in connected tablets will drive decline in dedicated data connections
  • 15. ARPU: ARPU will continue to fall in most countries, and EU regulations will have a negative impact on profitability
  • 16. Data and revenue by generation: Unlimited tariffs, net neutrality-skirting offers, and roaming rate cuts will drive data usage
  • 17. Country-level trends
  • 18. France: Growing 4G penetration will drive data consumption and slow down the decline in mobile retail revenue
  • 19. Germany: Revenue will grow, but at a very slow pace
  • 20. Italy: The arrival of Iliad will drive down handset ASPU
  • 21. Spain: Content services and increasing LTE population coverage will keep handset data revenue growth
  • 22. UK: The prospect of Brexit adds uncertainty to the economic outlook
  • 23. About the author and Analysys Mason
  • 24. About the author
  • 25. Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
  • 26. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 27. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Western Europe, 2012-2022
  • Figure 2: Mobile service revenue in Western Europe and worldwide, 2012-2022
  • Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue by mobile service type, and mobile ARPU, Western Europe, 2012-2022
  • Figure 4: Telecoms retail revenue by mobile service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Western Europe, 2016-2022
  • Figure 5: Connections by type, and growth rates, Western Europe, 2016-2022
  • Figure 6: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Western Europe, 2012-2022
  • Figure 7: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Western Europe, 2012-2022
  • Figure 8: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G, 4G and 5G's share of connections, Western Europe, 2012-2022
  • Figure 9: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), Western Europe, 2016 and 2022
  • Figure 10: Mobile broadband connections by screen size and technology, Western Europe, 2012-2022
  • Figure 11: Mobile ARPU by country, Western Europe, 2012-2022
  • Figure 12: Mobile service revenue and ARPU by technology, Western Europe, 2012-2022
  • Figure 13: Data traffic and revenue per megabyte, Western Europe, 2012-2022
  • Figure 14: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, France, 2012-2022
  • Figure 15: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, France, 2012-2022
  • Figure 16: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, France
  • Figure 17: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Germany, 2012-2022
  • Figure 18: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Germany, 2012-2022
  • Figure 19: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Germany
  • Figure 20: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Italy, 2012-2022
  • Figure 21: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Italy, 2012-2022
  • Figure 22: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Italy
  • Figure 23: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Spain, 2012-2022
  • Figure 24: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Spain, 2012-2022
  • Figure 25: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Spain
  • Figure 26: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, UK, 2012-2022
  • Figure 27: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, UK, 2012-2022
  • Figure 28: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, UK
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