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市場調查報告書

西歐的行動服務的趨勢與預測 2016-2021年

Mobile Services in Western Europe: Trends and Forecasts 2016-2021

出版商 Analysys Mason 商品編碼 345545
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 29 Slides
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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西歐的行動服務的趨勢與預測 2016-2021年 Mobile Services in Western Europe: Trends and Forecasts 2016-2021
出版日期: 2017年02月16日 內容資訊: 英文 29 Slides
簡介

西歐的行動普及率,預計從2015年的127%到2021年的126%微幅減少。

本報告以西歐的行動服務市場為研究主題,提供各全球、地區以及各國的市場分析、5年預測。

摘要整理

全球趨勢

  • 全球收益,由網路發展中基礎設施投資所促進,預計在行動、固定市場區隔增加
  • EMAP (新興亞太地區) 及SSA (撒哈拉以南非洲) 的需求,及普及快速,推動全球普及率至2021年達105%
  • 預計智慧型手機構成全球終端的其中69%,普及率以NA (95%) 及WE (92%) 變得最高
  • 行動ARPU:高競爭層級及OTT服務的替代,繼續增加ARPU的下方壓力

地區趨勢

  • 行動寬頻ARPU的下降在2015年減速,不過,預測期間內繼續
  • 行動普及率:WE市場變成熟,行動用戶群在大部分的國家減少
  • 行動連線:2016年4G成為主導的技術
  • 地區涵蓋範圍:西歐16個國家構成2015年全球通訊收益的21%
  • 智慧型手機、LTE:預計除了希臘在全部的西歐各國,智慧型手機在2021年在終端的佔有率超過90%
  • 行動ARPU:幾個市場雖然開始恢復,但是整體平均有持續減少趨勢
  • SIM的4G普及率及OTT服務利用的增加促進終端DATA ARPU的成長

預測手法、前提條件

著者及ANALYSYS MASON

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目錄

"Mobile penetration will decline in a majority of the countries in Western Europe, with the exception of Belgium, France, Greece, Norway and Spain, where adoption of multi-SIM plans is growing."

Mobile broadband connections will continue to be the preferred choice across many markets, particularly where fixed infrastructure is limited or where the cost of fixed broadband connectivity is high. However, mobile broadband connections are being replaced quickly by smartphones in maturing data markets.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • commentary and trend analysis to support our 5-year forecast for Western Europe (WE)
  • worldwide context, regional analysis and commentary
  • forecasts that are informed by on-the-ground market experts from our Research and Consulting divisions, and external interviews. We also draw upon Analysys Mason's Telecoms Market Matrix, a comprehensive source of trusted quarterly data that sizes European telecoms markets.

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE

Countries modelled individually in the data

  • Austria
  • Belgium
  • Denmark
  • Finland
  • France
  • Germany
  • Greece
  • Ireland
  • Italy
  • Netherlands
  • Norway
  • Portugal
  • Spain
  • Sweden
  • Switzerland
  • United Kingdom (UK)

DATA COVERAGE

Mobile connections
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone
Mobile revenue
  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Handset voice, messaging, data
Mobile ARPU
  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data
Voice traffic
  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Lee Giet (Research Analyst) is a member of the regional markets research team in London, contributing mainly to the Telecoms Market Matrix, European Core Forecasts, European Country Reports and Global Telecoms Forecasts research programmes. Lee holds a BSc in Physics from University College London (UCL).

Kerem Arsal (Principal Analyst) is a key contributor to Analysys Mason's Mobile Services research programme, which helps operators to understand, and monetise to maximum efficiency, the interplay between voice, messaging and data services. His work involves in-depth coverage of issues such as customer retention, mobile data pricing, MVNO strategies, and the impact of regulation and roaming. Previously, Kerem was a research manager at Pyramid Research, where he was responsible for setting the thematic research agenda across multiple tracks and regions. He also headed numerous projects around operator strategies, as well as commercialisation of, and demand assessment for, new products in the consumer and enterprise segments.

Table of Contents

  • 5. Executive summary
  • 6. Executive summary
  • 7. Worldwide trends
  • 8. Revenue worldwide will increase in the mobile and fixed segments driven by infrastructure investments in network roll-out
  • 9. Demand for, and the fast pace of take-up of, mobile in EMAP and SSA will boost penetration to 105% worldwide by 2021
  • 10. Smartphones will account for 69% of handsets worldwide and take-up will be highest in NA (95%) and WE (93%)
  • 11. Mobile ARPU: The high level of competition and substitution by OTT services will continue to put downward pressure on ARPU
  • 12. Regional trends
  • 13. The decline in mobile broadband ARPU slowed in 2015, but will continue throughout the forecast period
  • 14. Mobile penetration: WE markets are mature and the mobile user base will decline in most of them
  • 15. Mobile connections: 4G will become the predominant technology in 2016
  • 16. Geographical coverage: 16 Western European countries comprised 21% of worldwide telecoms revenue in 2015
  • 17. Smartphones and LTE: All WE countries, except Greece, will exceed 90% smartphone share of handsets in 2021
  • 18. Mobile ARPU: Some markets will begin to recover, but the overall average will continue to trend down
  • 19. Increasing 4G penetration of SIMs and OTT service usage will drive handset data ARPU growth
  • 20. Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 21. We have a disciplined process of forecasting; our on-the-ground analysts and consultants collaborate closely to assess market dynamics
  • 22. We use a vast variety of primary and secondary research for data collection; we use five key drivers and follow strict principles in forecasts
  • 23. A robust and comparable set of historical data is the starting point for our forecasts; this involves three main activities
  • 24. About the author and Analysys Mason
  • 25. About the author
  • 26. About Analysys Mason
  • 27. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 28. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Western Europe, 2011-2021
  • Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by type and country, worldwide, 2015-2021
  • Figure 3: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding IoT), worldwide, 2011-2021
  • Figure 4: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and 4G/5G's share of total connections (excluding IoT), worldwide, 2015 and 2021
  • Figure 5: Mobile ARPU (excluding IoT) by region and worldwide, 2011-2021
  • Figure 6: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, Western Europe, 2011-2021
  • Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and growth rates, Western Europe, 2015-2021
  • Figure 8: Connections by type, and growth rates, Western Europe, 2015-2021
  • Figure 9a: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding IoT), Western Europe, 2011-2021
  • Figure 9b: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding IoT), Western Europe, 2011-2021
  • Figure 10: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding IoT), and 3G, 4G and 5G's share of connections, Western Europe, 2011-2021
  • Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, Western Europe, 2021
  • Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding IoT), Western Europe, 2015 and 2021
  • Figure 13a: Mobile ARPU by country, Western Europe, 2011-2021
  • Figure 13b: Mobile ARPU by country, Western Europe, 2011-2021
  • Figure 14: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Western Europe, 2011-2021
  • Figure 15: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Western Europe, 2011-2021
  • Figure 16: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Western Europe
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