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西歐的行動服務的趨勢與預測 2015-2020年

Mobile Services in Western Europe: Trends and Forecasts 2015-2020

出版商 Analysys Mason 商品編碼 345545
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 35 Slides
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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西歐的行動服務的趨勢與預測 2015-2020年 Mobile Services in Western Europe: Trends and Forecasts 2015-2020
出版日期: 2015年11月24日 內容資訊: 英文 35 Slides





  • 新興地區收益成長雖然最高,但預計北美 (NA) 將展現最大的零售收益
  • 行動普及率在SSA (撒哈拉以南非洲) 、 EMAP (新興亞太地區) 及DVAP (先進亞太地區) 等地區促進下,2020年前將擴大到108%
  • LTE佔連接的佔有率是NA (92%) 及DVAP (84%) 最高,SSA僅有大幅落後的 (5%)
  • Over-the-Top (OTT) 服務及匯聚配套服務將面臨行動ARPU下滑的壓力


  • 地區的收益,由於市場成熟,價格競爭及OTT服務,將展現負1.5%的年複合成長率繼續減少
  • 整體普及率在許多國家增加,可是多數用戶計劃從預付轉向簽契
  • 預計在LTE服務的開始促進下,LTE將急速成為主導的行動技術
  • 下一代服務預計將支配西歐的行動·固定寬頻市場
  • 智慧型手機超過人口的100%,預計成為默認的終端類型
  • 費用減少及OTT服務的競爭,成為在預測期間內的ARPU降低的原因
  • ARPU的減少,由於行動數據服務收益·整合的膠印


  • 法國
  • 德國
  • 義大利
  • 西班牙
  • 英國





"Handset data revenue growth and fixed broadband revenue in Western Europe (WE) will not fully offset voice and mobile messaging revenue losses, resulting in fixed and mobile revenue decline in the region."

Mobile services revenue in Western Europe (WE) accounted for 16.6% of worldwide mobile service revenue, and 7.7% of mobile connections in 2014. By 2020, we expect the WE revenue share to shrink to 14.4% and the connection share to 5.9%. Mobile retail services accounted for 42.3% of overall WE service revenue in 2014, and this proportion will grow to 43.7% in 2020. However, mobile retail revenue will decline slightly at a CAGR of -1% during the forecast period.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • commentary and trend analysis to support our 5-year forecast for Western Europe (WE)
  • worldwide context, regional analysis and commentary on five countries: France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom (UK)
  • forecasting informed by on-the-ground market experts from our Research and Consulting divisions. We also draw upon Analysys Mason's Telecoms Market Matrix, a comprehensive source of trusted quarterly data that sizes European telecoms markets.


Countries modelled individually

  • Austria
  • Belgium
  • Denmark
  • Finland
  • France
  • Germany
  • Greece
  • Ireland
  • Italy
  • Netherlands
  • Norway
  • Portugal
  • Spain
  • Sweden
  • Switzerland
  • United Kingdom (UK)

Detailed country commentary

  • France
  • Germany
  • Italy
  • Spain
  • UK


Mobile connectionsMobile revenueMobile ARPUVoice traffic
  • Handset, mobile broadband1, M2M2
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G (LTE)
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone
  • Service3, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband1, M2M2
  • Handset voice, messaging, data
  • SIMS, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data
  • Outgoing minutes, MoU


Julia Martusewicz-Kulinska (Senior Analyst) is a member of the regional markets research team, contributing mainly to the European Core Forecasts, Telecoms Market Matrix and European Country Reports programmes. She has more than 14 years of research and telecoms industry regulations experience. Prior to joining Analysys Mason, she worked for the Polish national regulatory authority as the head of the Research Division, where she was responsible for telecoms market research, and as the leader of the Telecommunications Market Analysis Department, which was accountable for co-operation between the regulatory authority and the Information Society and Media DG of the European Commission.

Table of Contents

  • 5. Executive summary
  • 6. Executive summary
  • 7. Worldwide trends
  • 8. Worldwide: Developing regions will have the highest revenue growth, but North America will have the largest retail revenue
  • 9. Worldwide: Mobile penetration will increase to 108% by 2020, driven by service take-up in the SSA, EMAP and DVAP regions
  • 10. Worldwide: LTE's share of connections will be the highest in NA (92%) and DVAP (84%), while SSA will lag behind (5%)
  • 11. Worldwide: Over-the-top (OTT) services and converged bundle services will have a downward pressure on mobile ARPU
  • 12. Regional trends
  • 13. WE: Telecoms revenue will continue to decline, at a CAGR -1.5%, due to market maturity, price competition and OTT services
  • 14. WE: Total penetration will not grow in most countries, but many users will migrate from prepaid to contract plans
  • 15. WE: LTE will rapidly become the dominant mobile technology, boosted by the launch of VoLTE services
  • 16. WE: Next-generation services will dominate the mobile and fixed broadband markets in Western Europe by 2020
  • 17. WE: Smartphones will become the default handset type, with penetration exceeding 100% of the population
  • 18. WE: Declining prices and competition from OTT services will cause ARPU to continue to fall during the forecast period
  • 19. WE: ARPU will decline, offset in part by mobile data services revenue and consolidations
  • 20. Country-level trends
  • 21. France: More smartphones and LTE in the customer base will offset the impact of converged bundles on ARPU Country 2
  • 22. Germany: Quadruple-play offers will put pressure on handset ARPU, and drive users from prepaid to contract deals
  • 23. Italy: LTE technology gained strength in 2015 and the potential merger of 3 Italia and Wind may ease price competition
  • 24. Spain: ARPU will be more resilient as LTE gains momentum, and fixed-mobile bundles may reduce churn
  • 25. UK: The pending mergers of BT and EE, as well as Three and O2, will alter the competitive landscape significantly
  • 26. Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 27. We have a disciplined process of forecasting; our on-the-ground analysts and consultants collaborate closely to assess market dynamics
  • 28. Our forecasts are informed by primary and secondary research for data collection, a rigorous methodology and our analysis of external drivers
  • 29. A robust and comparable set of historical data is the starting point for our forecasts; this involves three main activities
  • 30. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 31. About the authors
  • 32. About Analysys Mason
  • 33. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 34. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Western Europe, 2010-2020
  • Figure 2: CAGRs for fixed and mobile retail revenue (2014-2020) and market size by total retail revenue (2020), by region, worldwide
  • Figure 3: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), worldwide, 2010-2020
  • Figure 4: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), worldwide, 2014 and 2020
  • Figure 5: Mobile ARPU by region and worldwide, 2010-2020
  • Figure 6: Telecoms retail mobile revenue by service type and mobile ARPU, Western Europe, 2010-2020
  • Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Western Europe, 2014-2020
  • Figure 8: Connections by type, and growth rates, Western Europe, 2014-2020
  • Figure 9a: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), northern Europe, 2010-2020
  • Figure 9b: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), southern Europe, 2010-2020
  • Figure 10: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G and 4G's share of connections, Western Europe, 2010-2020
  • Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation and fixed broadband household penetration, by country, Western Europe, 2020
  • Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), Western Europe, 2014 and 2020
  • Figure 13a: Mobile ARPU by country, northern Europe, 2010-2020
  • Figure 13b: Mobile ARPU by country, southern Europe, 2010-2020
  • Figure 14: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Western Europe, 2010-2020
  • Figure 15: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Western Europe, 2010-2020
  • Figure 16: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Western Europe
  • Figure 17: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, France, 2014-2020
  • Figure 18: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Germany, 2014-2020
  • Figure 19: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Italy, 2014-2020
  • Figure 20: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Spain, 2014-2020
  • Figure 21: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, UK, 2014-2020
  • Figure 22: Data, research principles and external factors that inform our forecasting methodology
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