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市場調查報告書

中東、北非行動服務動向與預測:2016年∼2021年

Mobile Services in the Middle East and North Africa: Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022

出版商 Analysys Mason 商品編碼 345106
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 28 Slides
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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中東、北非行動服務動向與預測:2016年∼2021年 Mobile Services in the Middle East and North Africa: Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022
出版日期: 2017年10月10日 內容資訊: 英文 28 Slides
簡介

中東、北非 (MENA) 行動收益成長與其他地區相比預計更為強勢。主要收益來源是行動電話數據、固定寬頻服務。

本報告針對中東、北非 (MENA) 行動服務市場進行相關調查分析、提供動向分析與5年預測、地區分類分析、國家分類分析等整體情報。

摘要整理

世界動向

  • 世界收益受到網路開始的基本建設投資帶動,行動、固定分類增加
  • 世界普及率因新興亞太地區 (EMAP)、撒哈拉以南非洲(SSA)的行動需求而急速增加、預計至2021年達105%
  • 佔世界行動電話69%的智慧手機、交易最高的是北美(NA)的95%、接著是西歐(WE)的93%
  • 行動ARPU:OTT服務競爭的激烈化與代替方案降低了ARPU

地區分類動向

  • 行動、固定數據服務收益成長中、行動語音收益佔優勢
  • 成熟市場與SIM適用讓新的行動連接數量減少
  • 至2021年3G整體連接數量達44.2%、LTE佔行動SIM (M2M以外) 約4分之1
  • 地理範圍:2021年、12項通訊市場中MENA通訊服務收益佔90.7%
  • 今後5年以色列的智慧手機普及率最高、UAE領先4G/5G使用率
  • 行動ARPU:數據增加因語音、簡訊減少而相互抵銷、使得ARPU衰退率降低
  • LTE服務區域擴大內容、OTT服務使用增加、促進行動電話數據收益成長

國家分類動向

  • 阿曼:市場滲透因用戶成長受到抑制、促進數據服務需求收益
  • 卡達:移民連接數量維持增加、契約、4G支撐了價值成長
  • 沙烏地阿拉伯:法規措施與市場競爭激烈化、市場成長預期將惡化

預測方法與前提條件

關於作者、Analysys Mason

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目錄

"Smartphone adoption remains strong across the Middle East and North Africa and is helping to increase public awareness and use of LTE, particularly in Gulf Cooperation Council countries that are already deploying pre-5G technologies."

We expect that 67.1% of total telecoms service revenue in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in 2022 will come from mobile services. In this report, we examine key trends and drivers and provide comprehensive mobile telecoms market forecasts for the MENA region and for 12 individually modelled countries, including country views for Iran, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE..

This report provides:

  • a 5-year forecast of 127 mobile KPIs for the MENA region and for 12 key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile service, and for six key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, highlighting similarities and differences between countries
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile operators.

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE

Countries modelled individuallyDetailed country commentary
  • Algeria
  • Egypt
  • Iran
  • Iraq
  • Israel
  • Kuwait
  • Morocco
  • Oman
  • Qatar
  • Saudi Arabia
  • Tunisia
  • United Arab Emirates (UAE)
  • Iran
  • Kuwait
  • Oman
  • Qatar
  • Saudi Arabia
  • United Arab Emirates (UAE)

DATA COVERAGE

Mobile connections
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone
Mobile revenue
  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Handset voice, messaging, data
Mobile ARPU
  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data
Voice traffic
  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

Table of Contents

  • 5. Executive summary
  • 6. Service revenue in MENA will grow to USD 73 billion in 2022, as competition increases despite a weaker economic outlook
  • 7. Worldwide trends
  • 8. Worldwide: Mobile service revenue will continue to increase during the forecast period, reaching USD 863 billion in 2022
  • 9. Regional trends
  • 10. Mobile data services will drive revenue growth, but mobile voice revenue will continue to dominate in MENA
  • 11. Maturing markets and enforced SIM registration policies have led to a slowdown in numbers of new mobile connections
  • 12. 42% of all connections will be 3G by 2022, while LTE will account for nearly 31% of connections (excluding M2M)
  • 13. The 4G/5G user base in the region will reach 174.4 million in 2022, with growing opportunities for data monetisation
  • 14. Growth in data and migration to postpaid connections will help to reduce the rate of decline of ARPU
  • 15. 4G connectivity and digital services will help to offset a slowdown in the growth of legacy services revenue
  • 16. Country-level trends
  • 17. Iran: Adoption of smartphones and 4G services, combined with MVNO entry in 2017, will underpin future growth
  • 18. Kuwait: Revenue growth will be hampered by market saturation and ARPU erosion, despite strong take-up of data
  • 19. Oman: Data revenue will grow strongly against the backdrop of increasingly challenging commercial conditions
  • 20. Qatar: The market still has potential for growth, provided that the regional blockade does not stretch beyond a few months
  • 21. Saudi Arabia: Revenue contracted in 2016, but will remain largely stable over the next 5 years, due to data usage
  • 22. UAE: Steady growth, driven by a healthy economy and operators' investment in infrastructure and digital initiatives
  • 23. About the author and Analysys Mason
  • 24. About the author
  • 25. About Analysys Mason
  • 26. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 27. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1. Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Middle East and North Africa, 2012-2022
  • Figure 2. Mobile service revenue in the Middle East and North Africa and worldwide, USD billions (2016), 2012-2022
  • Figure 3. Telecoms retail revenue by mobile service type, and mobile ARPU, Middle East and North Africa, 2012-2022
  • Figure 4. Telecoms retail revenue by mobile service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Middle East and North Africa, 2012-2022
  • Figure 5.Connections by type, and growth rates, Middle East and North Africa, 2012-2022
  • Figure 6. Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Middle East and North Africa, 2012-2022
  • Figure 7. Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2m), and 3G, 4g and 5G share of connections, Middle East and North Africa, 2012-2022
  • Figure 8. Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE share of total connections (excluding M2M), Middle East and North Africa, 2016 and 2022
  • Figure 9. Mobile ARPU by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2012-2022
  • Figure 10. Mobile service revenue and AEPU by technology, Middle East and North Africa, 2012-2022
  • Figure 11. Data traffic and revenue per megabyte, Middle East and North Africa, 2012-2022
  • Figure 12. Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Iran, 2012-2022
  • Figure 13. Mobile ARPU by type and overall mobile ARPU, Iran, 2012-2022
  • Figure 14. Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Iran
  • Figure 15. Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Kuwait, 2012-2022
  • Figure 16. Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Kuwait, 2012-2022
  • Figure 17. Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Kuwait
  • Figure 18. Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Oman, 2012-2022
  • Figure 19. Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Oman, 2012-2022
  • Figure 20. Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Oman
  • Figure 21. Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Qatar, 2012-2022
  • Figure 22. Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Qatar, 2012-2022
  • Figure 23. Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Qatar
  • Figure 24. Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Saudi Arabia, 2012-2022
  • Figure 25. Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Saudi Arabia, 2012-2022
  • Figure 26. Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Saudi Arabia
  • Figure 27. Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, UAE, 2012-2022
  • Figure 28. Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, UAE, 2012-2022
  • Figure 29. Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, UAE.
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