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市場調查報告書

中東、北非行動服務動向與預測:2016年∼2021年

Mobile Services in the Middle East and North Africa: Trends and Forecasts 2016-2021

出版商 Analysys Mason 商品編碼 345106
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 32 Slides
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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中東、北非行動服務動向與預測:2016年∼2021年 Mobile Services in the Middle East and North Africa: Trends and Forecasts 2016-2021
出版日期: 2017年02月17日 內容資訊: 英文 32 Slides
簡介

中東、北非 (MENA) 行動收益成長與其他地區相比預計更為強勢。主要收益來源是行動電話數據、固定寬頻服務。

本報告針對中東、北非 (MENA) 行動服務市場進行相關調查分析、提供動向分析與5年預測、地區分類分析、國家分類分析等整體情報。

摘要整理

世界動向

  • 世界收益受到網路開始的基本建設投資帶動,行動、固定分類增加
  • 世界普及率因新興亞太地區 (EMAP)、撒哈拉以南非洲(SSA)的行動需求而急速增加、預計至2021年達105%
  • 佔世界行動電話69%的智慧手機、交易最高的是北美(NA)的95%、接著是西歐(WE)的93%
  • 行動ARPU:OTT服務競爭的激烈化與代替方案降低了ARPU

地區分類動向

  • 行動、固定數據服務收益成長中、行動語音收益佔優勢
  • 成熟市場與SIM適用讓新的行動連接數量減少
  • 至2021年3G整體連接數量達44.2%、LTE佔行動SIM (M2M以外) 約4分之1
  • 地理範圍:2021年、12項通訊市場中MENA通訊服務收益佔90.7%
  • 今後5年以色列的智慧手機普及率最高、UAE領先4G/5G使用率
  • 行動ARPU:數據增加因語音、簡訊減少而相互抵銷、使得ARPU衰退率降低
  • LTE服務區域擴大內容、OTT服務使用增加、促進行動電話數據收益成長

國家分類動向

  • 阿曼:市場滲透因用戶成長受到抑制、促進數據服務需求收益
  • 卡達:移民連接數量維持增加、契約、4G支撐了價值成長
  • 沙烏地阿拉伯:法規措施與市場競爭激烈化、市場成長預期將惡化

預測方法與前提條件

關於作者、Analysys Mason

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目錄

"The number of 3G connections will continue to increase in MENA and will represent 44.2% of the region's connections by 2021."

Mobile revenue growth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) will be relatively strong compared to that in other regions. Mobile handset data and fixed broadband services will be the main source of revenue growth in the region.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • commentary and trend analysis to support our 5-year forecast for MENA
  • worldwide context, regional analysis and commentary
  • forecasts that are informed by on-the-ground market experts from our Research and Consulting divisions, and external interviews.

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE

Countries modelled individuallyDetailed country commentary
  • Algeria
  • Egypt
  • Iran
  • Iraq
  • Israel
  • Kuwait
  • Morocco
  • Oman
  • Qatar
  • Saudi Arabia
  • Tunisia
  • United Arab Emirates (UAE)
  • Oman
  • Qatar
  • Saudi Arabia
  • UAE

DATA COVERAGE

Mobile connections
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone
Mobile revenue
  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Handset voice, messaging, data
Mobile ARPU
  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data
Voice traffic
  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Karim Yaici (Senior Analyst) works on Analysys Mason's The Middle East and Africa regional research programme. His primary areas of specialisation include operators' digital strategies, new telecoms opportunities and challenges and consumer trends in MEA. Prior to joining Analysys Mason, Karim was an associate analyst at Ovum, where he authored reports on mobile accessories and mobile applications. Prior to that, he worked as a research engineer at Vodafone. Karim holds an MSc in Information Systems Management and a PhD in human-computer interaction.

Lee Giet (Research Analyst) is a member of the regional markets research team in London, contributing mainly to the Telecoms Market Matrix, European Core Forecasts, European Country Reports and Global Telecoms Forecasts research programmes. Lee holds a BSc in Physics from University College London (UCL).

Table of Contents

  • 6. Executive summary
  • 7. Worldwide trends
  • 8. Revenue worldwide will increase in the mobile and fixed segments driven by infrastructure investments in network roll-out
  • 9. Demand for, and the fast pace of take-up of, mobile in EMAP and SSA will boost penetration to 105% worldwide by 2021
  • 10. Smartphones will account for 69% of handsets worldwide and take-up will be highest in NA (95%) and WE (93%)
  • 11. Mobile ARPU: The high level of competition and substitution by OTT services will continue to put downward pressure on ARPU
  • 12. Regional trends
  • 13. Mobile and fixed data services will drive revenue growth in the region, but mobile voice revenue will continue to dominate
  • 14. Maturing markets and enforced SIM registration have already led to a slow down in the number of new mobile connections
  • 15. 44.2% of all connections will be 3G by 2021, while LTE will account for nearly a quarter of mobile SIMs (excluding M2M)
  • 16. Geographical coverage: We model twelve telecoms markets, which will account for 90.7% of telecoms service revenue in MENA in 2021
  • 17. Israel will have the highest smartphone penetration and UAEwill lead 4G/5G take-up rates over the next 5years
  • 18. Mobile ARPU: Growth in data will offset the decline from voice and messaging, thereby lessening the rate of decline of ARPU
  • 19. Increasing content and OTT service usage due to wide LTE coverage will boost handset data revenue growth
  • 20. Country-level trends
  • 21. Oman: Market saturation will subdue subscriber growth,while demand for data services will help boost revenue
  • 22. Qatar: Migrants will sustain connections growth, whilecontract and 4G segments will support value growth
  • 23. Saudi Arabia: Regulatory measures and intensified market competition, are weighing down market growth prospects
  • 24. UAE: Smartphone penetration and data usage will driverevenue growth, helping to slow ARPU erosion
  • 25. Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 26. Methodology slide 1
  • 27. Methodology slide 2
  • 28. Methodology slide 3
  • 29. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 30. About the authors
  • 31. About Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Middle East and North Africa, 2011-2021
  • Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by type and country, worldwide, -2021
  • Figure 3: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding IoT), worldwide, -2021
  • Figure 4: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and 4G/5G's share of total connections (excluding IoT), worldwide, 2015 and 2021
  • Figure 5: Mobile ARPU (excluding IoT) by region and worldwide, 2011-2021
  • Figure 6: Telecoms retail revenue by mobile service type, and mobile ARPU, Middle East and North Africa, 2011-2021
  • Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by mobile service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Middle East and North Africa, 2015-2021
  • Figure 8: Connections by type, and growth rates, Middle East and North Africa, -2021
  • Figure 9: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Middle East and North Africa, 2011-2021
  • Figure 10: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G, 4G and 5G's share of connections, Middle East and North Africa, 2011-2021
  • Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation and NGA penetration of fixed broadband connections by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2021
  • Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and 4G/5G share of total connections (excluding M2M), Middle East and North Africa, 2015 and 2021
  • Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2011-2021
  • Figure 14: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Middle East and North Africa, 2011-2021
  • Figure 15: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Middle East and North Africa, 2011-2021
  • Figure 16: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Middle East and North Africa
  • Figure 17: Mobile service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Oman, 2015-2021
  • Figure 18: Mobile service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Qatar, 2015-2021
  • Figure 19: Mobile service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Saudi Arabia, -2021
  • Figure 20: Mobile service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, UAE, 2015-2021
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