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市場調查報告書

亞太地區的新興通訊市場趨勢、預測:2015-2020年

Emerging Asia-Pacific Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2016-2021

出版商 Analysys Mason 商品編碼 344283
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 53 Pages
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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亞太地區的新興通訊市場趨勢、預測:2015-2020年 Emerging Asia-Pacific Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2016-2021
出版日期: 2016年11月21日 內容資訊: 英文 53 Pages
簡介

亞太地區的新興國家提供通訊業者絕大的市場機會。創新的服務和新世代終端,網路覆蓋範圍的擴大等成為對市場成長有大幅貢獻的要素。

本報告提供亞太地區的新興通訊市場潛力的相關調查、新興9個國家的連線數、收益等的主要KPI的5年預測、全部區域及各國主要發展趨勢、市場成長及收益擴大的因素分析等彙整資料。

調查內容

  • 調查對象國家
    • 孟加拉
    • 中國
    • 印度
    • 印尼
    • 馬來西亞
    • 巴基斯坦
    • 斯里蘭卡
    • 泰國
    • 越南
  • 主要KPI的5年預測
    • 連線數
      • 行動
        • 終端、行動寬頻、M2M
        • 以預付/契約為基礎
        • 2G、3G、4G
        • 智慧型手機、非智慧型手機
      • 固定
        • 語音、寬頻、網路電視、撥接上網
        • 窄頻語音、VoBB
        • DSL、FTTH/B、電纜、BFWA、其他
    • 收益
      • 行動
        • 服務、零售
        • 以預付/契約為基礎
        • 終端、行動寬頻、M2M
        • 終端語音、通訊、資料
      • 固定
        • 服務、零售
        • 語音、寬頻網路電視、撥接上網、BNS
        • DSL、FTTH/B、電纜、BFWA、其他
    • 語音流量
      • 固定、行動
        • 發信時間、MoU
    • ARPU
      • 行動
        • SIM、終端
        • 以預付/契約為基礎
        • 終端語音、資料

本網頁內容可能與最新版本有所差異。詳細情況請與我們聯繫。

目錄

"Total telecoms retail revenue in emerging Asia-Pacific will grow at a CAGR of 2.3%, increasing from USD278 billion in 2015 to USD319 billion in 2021."

Competition is strong in the telecoms market in emerging Asia-Pacific (EMAP) due to the presence of three or more operators in each key market (except Philippines), and pressure on pricing has restricted growth in this region. Revenue for core services (voice and messaging) will decline, but growth in mobile data, IoT, fixed broadband and IPTV services will compensate for this, generating positive overall growth during 2015-2021.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • a 5-year forecast of more than 175 mobile and fixed KPIs for EMAP, as a whole and for 11 key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

COVERAGE

Geographical coverageKey performance indicators

   Region modelled

  •    Emerging Asia-Pacific (EMAP)

   Countries modelled individually

  • Bangladesh
  • China
  • India
  • Indonesia
  • Malaysia
  • Myanmar
  • Pakistan
  • Philippines
  • Sri Lanka
  • Thailand
  • Vietnam

   Connections

   Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone

   Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

   Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

   Revenue

   Mobile

  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

   Fixed

  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

   Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Harsh Upadhyay (Analyst) contributes to Analysys Mason's Asia-Pacific research programme, and is based in our Singapore office. His research focuses on market tracking, competitive assessment, data forecasting, next-generation services and consumer behaviour analysis in the Asia-Pacific telecoms market. He also supports consulting projects and presents at industry events. Harsh's experience in the TMT industry is diverse, and he has a detailed understanding of the telecoms market in the region. He has previously worked with Frost & Sullivan and IDC as an analyst and consultant, and his clients include leading ICT firms and government bodies. Harsh holds a Master's and Bachelor's degree in Business Management from India.

Sherrie Huang (Research Programme Head, Asia-Pacific) is the lead analyst for Analysys Mason's Asia-Pacific research programme and is based in our Singapore office. Her research covers the entire Asia-Pacific region, and includes market data and forecasts for 15 key markets as well as thematic reports covering key telecoms industry trends in the region. Sherrie has extensive expertise in fixed and mobile services and has covered the telecoms industry from various angles, including strategy, market sizing and forecasting, end-user case studies, cost modelling and regulatory issues. She previously worked at IDC, Ovum and ZTE in various Asia-Pacific countries in product marketing, project management, and research and consulting roles.

Table of Contents

  • 8. Executive summary
  • 9. Telecoms retail revenue for emerging Asia-Pacific will continue to grow at a 2.3% CAGR, despite a decline in core voice and messaging revenue
  • 10. Increasing mobile data traffic and smartphone penetration will result in strong mobile data revenue growth in EMAP
  • 11. Operator strategies and government programs will determine the growth of fixed networks
  • 12. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets in EMAP
  • 13. Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators
  • 14. Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
  • 15. Geographical coverage: National broadband initiatives and advancements in 4G are driving up the number of connections in Malaysia and Thailand
  • 16. Market context: Malaysia has the highest mobile SIM population penetration and fixed broadband household penetration in EMAP
  • 17. Revenue and ARPU: Mobile data, IoT, fixed broadband and IPTV will drive telecoms retail revenue growth in EMAP
  • 18. Mobile penetration: Consumers in EMAP countries will slowly move from multi-SIM to single-SIM behaviour
  • 19. Mobile connections: 4G will grow strongly, accounting for 50% of all mobile connections in EMAP by the end of the forecast period
  • 20. Smartphones and LTE: Smartphone penetration will grow to 69% of all handsets in EMAP by 2021 as LTE penetration increases
  • 21. Mobile broadband: Mobile broadband will be relevant for countries with low fixed coverage and for mobile workers
  • 22. Mobile ARPU: Pricing pressure due to increasing competition in EMAP will bring down the overall ARPU
  • 23. Data and revenue by generation: Mobile data traffic is expected to grow faster than mobile data revenue
  • 24. Fixed services: Increased user demand drives fixed infrastructure investments, which increases the number of fixed connections
  • 25. Fixed broadband: Large fibre deployments and cable TV digitisation characterise the EMAP region
  • 26. Key drivers at a glance for each market in emerging Asia-Pacific
  • 27. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
  • 28. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
  • 29. Individual country forecasts
  • 30. China: China will remain unique because although it is an emerging market, it has world-leading advanced technologies
  • 31. China - mobile: MVNO growth will slow down and IoT will drive mobile population penetration in the long term
  • 32. China - fixed: Operators and ISPs in China will continue to carry out ambitious investment plans for NGA deployment
  • 33. Indonesia: Both mobile data and fixed broadband services will experience strong growth in Indonesia
  • 34. Indonesia - mobile: Handset data growth rate will fall due to competitive pricing pressures
  • 35. Indonesia - fixed: Entry of new players and aggressive competition will push ASPU downwards
  • 36. Malaysia: Total telecoms retail revenue will decline slowly due to market saturation in Malaysia
  • 37. Malaysia - mobile: Pricing wars are hampering the effective monetisation of 4G data
  • 38. Malaysia - fixed: Fixed network expansion in new areas will drive growth in this market
  • 39. Philippines: Telecoms retail revenue in Philippines will grow at a CAGR of 4.6% during 2015-2021
  • 40. Philippines - mobile: Operators will aggressively expand their 4G networks until 2018
  • 41. Philippines - fixed: Operators are investing in increased fibre connectivity, expanding into more villages and metro areas
  • 42. Thailand: Mobile handset data growth will be slow, despite rapidly growing data traffic, mainly due to competitive pricing
  • 43. Thailand - mobile: 2G decommissioning will help user migration to higher speeds (3G/4G)
  • 44. Thailand - fixed: Next-generation access networks will drive the growth of multi-play services
  • 45. Vietnam: The overall growth of Vietnam's telecoms market will start to decline following a period of rapid development
  • 46. Vietnam - mobile: Mobile penetration is already high and only mild growth is forecast, unless new drivers such as a 4G launch emerge
  • 47. Vietnam - fixed: The fixed broadband market in Vietnam will continue to experience healthy growth in the future
  • 48. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 49. About the authors
  • 50. About Analysys Mason
  • 51. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 52. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), emerging Asia-Pacific, 2011-2021
  • Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2015-2021
  • Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue growth by type and country, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2015-2021
  • Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for emerging Asia-Pacific
  • Figure 5: Mobile connections by technology generation and NGA's share of fixed broadband connections, by country, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2021
  • Figure 6: Metrics for the 11 countries modelled individually in emerging Asia-Pacific, 2015
  • Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2011-2021
  • Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2015-2021
  • Figure 9: Connections by type, and growth rates, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2015-2021
  • Figure 10: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding IoT), emerging Asia-Pacific, 2011-2021
  • Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding IoT), and 3G, 4G and 5G's share of connections, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2011-2021
  • Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding IoT), emerging Asia-Pacific, 2015 and 2021
  • Figure 13: Mobile broadband connections by screen size and technology, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2011-2021
  • Figure 14: Mobile ARPU by country, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2011-2021
  • Figure 15: Mobile service revenue and ARPU by technology, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2011-2021
  • Figure 16: Data traffic and revenue per megabyte, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2011-2021
  • Figure 17: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2011-2021
  • Figure 18: Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2011-2021
  • Figure 19: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2015) and future trajectory (2016-2021), by country, emerging Asia-Pacific
  • Figure 20a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
  • Figure 20b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
  • Figure 21: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), China, 2011-2021
  • Figure 22: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, China, 2015-2021
  • Figure 23: Connections by type, and growth rates, China, 2015-2021
  • Figure 24: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, China, 2011-2021
  • Figure 25: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, China, 2011-2021
  • Figure 26: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, China
  • Figure 27: Fixed penetration rates by service type, China, 2011-2021
  • Figure 28: Fixed ASPU by service type, China, 2011-2021
  • Figure 29: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, China
  • Figure 30: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Indonesia, 2011-2021
  • Figure 31: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Indonesia, 2015-2021
  • Figure 32: Connections by type, and growth rates, Indonesia, 2015-2021
  • Figure 33: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Indonesia, 2011-2021
  • Figure 34: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Indonesia, 2011-2021
  • Figure 35: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Indonesia
  • Figure 36: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Indonesia, 2011-2021
  • Figure 37: Fixed ASPU by service type, Indonesia, 2011-2021
  • Figure 38: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Indonesia
  • Figure 39: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Malaysia, 2011-2021
  • Figure 40: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Malaysia, 2015-2021
  • Figure 41: Connections by type, and growth rates, Malaysia, 2015-2021
  • Figure 42: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Malaysia, 2011-2021
  • Figure 43: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Malaysia, 2011-2021
  • Figure 44: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Malaysia
  • Figure 45: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Malaysia, 2011-2021
  • Figure 46: Fixed ASPU by service type, Malaysia, 2011-2021
  • Figure 47: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Malaysia
  • Figure 48: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Philippines, 2011-2021
  • Figure 49: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Philippines, 2015-2021
  • Figure 50: Connections by type, and growth rates, Philippines, 2015-2021
  • Figure 51: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Philippines, 2011-2021
  • Figure 52: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Philippines, 2011-2021
  • Figure 53: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Philippines
  • Figure 54: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Philippines, 2011-2021
  • Figure 55: Fixed ASPU by service type, Philippines, 2011-2021
  • Figure 56: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Philippines
  • Figure 57: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Thailand, 2011-2021
  • Figure 58: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Thailand, 2015-2021
  • Figure 59: Connections by type, and growth rates, Thailand, 2015-2021
  • Figure 60: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Thailand, 2011-2021
  • Figure 61: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Thailand, 2011-2021
  • Figure 62: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Thailand
  • Figure 63: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Thailand, 2011-2021
  • Figure 64: Fixed ASPU by service type, Thailand, 2011-2021
  • Figure 65: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Thailand
  • Figure 66: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Vietnam, 2011-2021
  • Figure 67: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Vietnam, 2015-2021
  • Figure 68: Connections by type, and growth rates, Vietnam, 2015-2021
  • Figure 69: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Vietnam, 2011-2021
  • Figure 70: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Vietnam, 2011-2021
  • Figure 71: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Vietnam
  • Figure 72: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Vietnam, 2011-2021
  • Figure 73: Fixed ASPU by service type, Vietnam, 2011-2021
  • Figure 74: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Vietnam
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