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市場調查報告書

亞太地區的新興通訊市場趨勢、預測:2015-2020年

Emerging Asia-Pacific Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022

出版商 Analysys Mason 商品編碼 344283
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 37 Slides
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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亞太地區的新興通訊市場趨勢、預測:2015-2020年 Emerging Asia-Pacific Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022
出版日期: 2017年11月16日 內容資訊: 英文 37 Slides
簡介

亞太地區的新興國家提供通訊業者絕大的市場機會。創新的服務和新世代終端,網路覆蓋範圍的擴大等成為對市場成長有大幅貢獻的要素。

本報告提供亞太地區的新興通訊市場潛力的相關調查、新興9個國家的連線數、收益等的主要KPI的5年預測、全部區域及各國主要發展趨勢、市場成長及收益擴大的因素分析等彙整資料。

調查內容

  • 調查對象國家
    • 孟加拉
    • 中國
    • 印度
    • 印尼
    • 馬來西亞
    • 巴基斯坦
    • 斯里蘭卡
    • 泰國
    • 越南
  • 主要KPI的5年預測
    • 連線數
      • 行動
        • 終端、行動寬頻、M2M
        • 以預付/契約為基礎
        • 2G、3G、4G
        • 智慧型手機、非智慧型手機
      • 固定
        • 語音、寬頻、網路電視、撥接上網
        • 窄頻語音、VoBB
        • DSL、FTTH/B、電纜、BFWA、其他
    • 收益
      • 行動
        • 服務、零售
        • 以預付/契約為基礎
        • 終端、行動寬頻、M2M
        • 終端語音、通訊、資料
      • 固定
        • 服務、零售
        • 語音、寬頻網路電視、撥接上網、BNS
        • DSL、FTTH/B、電纜、BFWA、其他
    • 語音流量
      • 固定、行動
        • 發信時間、MoU
    • ARPU
      • 行動
        • SIM、終端
        • 以預付/契約為基礎
        • 終端語音、資料

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目錄

"The main services contributing to telecoms retail revenue will continue to be mobile voice and handset data, followed by fixed broadband and IPTV."

We forecast that fixed and mobile telecoms retail revenue will grow at similar CAGRs of around 2% in emerging Asia-Pacific during 2016-2022, driven by rapid growth in 4G connections and fixed broadband network developments.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • a 5-year forecast of more than 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for emerging Asia-Pacific as a whole and for 12 key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

COVERAGE

Geographical coverageKey performance indicators

Region modelled

  • Emerging Asia-Pacific (EMAP)

Countries modelled individually

  • Bangladesh
  • Cambodia
  • China
  • India
  • Indonesia
  • Malaysia
  • Myanmar
  • Pakistan
  • Philippines
  • Sri Lanka
  • Thailand
  • Vietnam

Connections

Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone

Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

Revenue

Mobile

  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data

ABOUT THE AUTHORS:

Sherrie Huang (Research Programme Head, Asia-Pacific) is the lead analyst for our Asia-Pacific research programme and is based in our Singapore office. Her research covers the entire Asia-Pacific region, and includes market data and forecasts for 17 key markets,as well as thematic reports covering key telecoms industry trends including IoT/M2M, video and multi-play, and enterprise services. Sherriehas extensive expertise on the telecoms industry from various angles, including strategy, market sizing and forecast, end-user research, cost modelling and regulatory issues. She previously worked at IDC, Ovum and ZTE in various Asia-Pacific countries.

Cai Shiyu (Research Analyst) contributes to Analysys Mason's Asia-Pacific research programme, and is based in our Singapore office. He had been involved in data modelling process as well as analysis of telecoms market trends in developed and emerging Asia-Pacific. Before joining Analysys Mason, he worked as an intern with business development division of SAP, and conducted qualitative and quantitative research on cloud computing market. Shiyu holds a Bachelor's degree in finance and operations management at NUS Business School, Singapore.

Table of Contents

  • 8.Executive summary
  • 9.Telecoms retail revenue for EMAP will increase over the forecast period, but the CAGR will fall from 5.3% (2012-2016) to 2.0% (2016-2022)
  • 10.Telecoms retail revenue growth in EMAP over the forecast period will mainly be driven by mobile handset data, fixed broadband andIPTV
  • 11.Fixed and mobile telecoms retail revenue will see similar CAGRs of around 2% in EMAP over 2016-2022
  • 12.Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
  • 13.Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators
  • 14.Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
  • 15.Geographical coverage: 4G launches in Myanmar, Nepal and Vietnam in 2016 and 2017 will further increase the 4G share of connections in EMAP
  • 16.Market context: Malaysia had the highest SIM population penetration and China the highest fixed broadband household penetration in 2016
  • 17.Revenue and ARPU: An increase in subscriber numbers will compensate for a slight decline in ARPU, leading to stable growth in retail revenue
  • 18.Mobile penetration: Active mobile SIM penetration in EMAP will grow from 85% in 2016 to 99% in 2022
  • 19.Mobile connections: 4G will become the dominant technology over the forecast period, accounting for 64% of mobile connections in 2022
  • 20.Smartphones and LTE: Smartphone penetration in EMAP will grow from 52% in 2016 to 81% in 2022 due to technology improvements
  • 21.Mobile broadband: Technology migration and improvements will drive the rapid growth of mobile broadband connections
  • 22.Mobile ARPU: Overall ARPU will continue to fall at a CAGR of -2.2% during the forecast period and stabilise around USD5 towards the end
  • 23.Data and revenue by generation: Mobile network construction and upgrades will drive revenue growth and boost data traffic
  • 24.Fixed services: There will be over 472 million fixed broadband connections in EMAP by 2022 and FTTP/B will account for 87% of these
  • 25.Fixed broadband: Fixed broadband will grow strongly due to operator investments, government initiatives and service bundles
  • 26.Key drivers at a glance for each emerging Asia-Pacific market
  • 27.Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
  • 28.Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
  • 29.Individual country forecasts
  • 30.China: China will continue to lead technology improvements in EMAP
  • 31.China -mobile: Fast 4G take-up and innovative products drive cellular data usage, and 5G is expected to launch around 2020
  • 32.China -fixed: China Mobile's entrance to the fixed market has stimulated subscriber growth, but affected fixed ASPU
  • 33.Indonesia: Fixed broadband and mobile data services will be the main contributors to total service revenue growth
  • 34.Indonesia -mobile: Intensified competition will lead to more innovative product offerings and result in 4G penetration growth
  • 35.Indonesia -fixed: Broadband and IPTV revenue will grow due to increases in subscriber numbers and upgraded services
  • 36.Malaysia: Total telecoms retail revenue will decline slowly due to market saturation in Malaysia
  • 37.Malaysia -mobile: Intense competition limits data revenue growth -operators focus on postpaidofferings for higher margins
  • 38.Malaysia -fixed: Operators focus on higher speed plans and more convergence bundles
  • 39.Philippines: Total service revenue will grow at a CAGR of 1.3% during the forecast period due to data revenue growth
  • 40.Philippines -mobile: Intensified competition will hamper operators' profitability and revenue growth will be marginal
  • 41.Philippines -fixed: Fixed broadband connections will grow strongly, due to operators' efforts to expand coverage
  • 42.Thailand: Rapid adoption of 4G and increasing FTTP penetration will be the main contributors to total service revenue growth
  • 43.Thailand -mobile: Improved network speeds will drive growth in 4G mobile subscriber numbers and data revenue
  • 44.Thailand -fixed: National initiatives will contribute to coverage expansion and increase broadband penetration
  • 45.Vietnam: Technology improvements will drive growth in both mobile and fixed markets
  • 46.Vietnam -mobile: The number of 4G subscribers will grow exponentially after the launch of the technology in 2017
  • 47.Vietnam -fixed: Both fixed broadband connections and revenue will increase during 2017-2022, due to an extensive FTTP roll-out
  • 48.About the authors and AnalysysMason
  • 49.About the authors
  • 50.AnalysysMason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
  • 51.Research from AnalysysMason
  • 52.Consulting from AnalysysMason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), emerging Asia-Pacific, 2012-2022
  • Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, emerging Asia-Pacific, -2022
  • Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue growth by type and country, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2016-2022
  • Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for emerging Asia-Pacific
  • Figure 5: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2022
  • Figure 6: Metrics for the 13 countries modelled individually in emerging Asia-Pacific, 2016
  • Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2012-2022
  • Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2016-2022
  • Figure 9: Connections by type, and growth rates, emerging Asia-Pacific, -2022
  • Figure 10: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding IoT), emerging Asia-Pacific, 2012-2022
  • Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G, 4G and 5G's share of connections, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2012-2022
  • Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), emerging Asia-Pacific, 2016 and 2022
  • Figure 13: Mobile broadband connections by screen size and technology, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2012-2022
  • Figure 14: Mobile ARPU by country, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2012-2022
  • Figure 15: Mobile service revenue and ARPU by technology, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2012-2022
  • Figure 16: Data traffic and revenue per megabyte, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2012-2022
  • Figure 17: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2012-2022
  • Figure 18: Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2012-2022
  • Figure 19: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2012) and future trajectory (2017-2022) by country, emerging Asia-Pacific
  • Figure 20: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
  • Figure 21: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), China, 2012-2022
  • Figure 22: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, China, 2016-2022
  • Figure 23: Connections by type, and growth rates, China, 2016-2022
  • Figure 24: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, China, 2012-2022
  • Figure 25: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, China, 2012-2022
  • Figure 26: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, China
  • Figure 27: Fixed penetration rates by service type, China, 2012-2022
  • Figure 28: Fixed ASPU by service type, China, 2012-2022
  • Figure 29: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, China
  • Figure 30: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Indonesia, 2012-2022
  • Figure 31: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Indonesia, 2016-2022
  • Figure 32: Connections by type, and growth rates, Indonesia, 2016-2022
  • Figure 33: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Indonesia, 2012-2022
  • Figure 34: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Indonesia, 2012-2022
  • Figure 35: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Indonesia
  • Figure 36: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Indonesia, 2012-2022
  • Figure 37: Fixed ASPU by service type, Indonesia, 2012-2022
  • Figure 38: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Indonesia
  • Figure 39: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Malaysia, 2012-2022
  • Figure 40: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Malaysia, 2016-2022
  • Figure 41: Connections by type, and growth rates, Malaysia, 2016-2022
  • Figure 42: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Malaysia, 2012-2022
  • Figure 43: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Malaysia, 2012-2022
  • Figure 44: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Malaysia
  • Figure 45: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Malaysia, 2012-2022
  • Figure 46: Fixed ASPU by service type, Malaysia, 2012-2022
  • Figure 47: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Malaysia
  • Figure 48: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Philippines, 2012-2022
  • Figure 49: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Philippines, 2016-2022
  • Figure 50: Connections by type, and growth rates, Philippines, 2016-2022
  • Figure 51: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Philippines, 2012-2022
  • Figure 52: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Philippines, 2012-2022
  • Figure 53: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Philippines
  • Figure 54: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Philippines, 2012-2022
  • Figure 55: Fixed ASPU by service type, Philippines, 2012-2022
  • Figure 56: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Philippines
  • Figure 57: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Thailand, 2012-2022
  • Figure 58: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Thailand, 2016-2022
  • Figure 59: Connections by type, and growth rates, Thailand, 2016-2022
  • Figure 60: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Thailand, 2012-2022
  • Figure 61: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Thailand, 2012-2022
  • Figure 62: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Thailand
  • Figure 63: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Thailand, 2012-2022
  • Figure 64: Fixed ASPU by service type, Thailand, 2012-2022
  • Figure 65: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Thailand
  • Figure 66: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Vietnam, 2012-2022
  • Figure 67: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Vietnam, 2016-2022
  • Figure 68: Connections by type, and growth rates, Vietnam, 2016-2022
  • Figure 69: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Vietnam, 2012-2022
  • Figure 70: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Vietnam, 2012-2022
  • Figure 71: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Vietnam
  • Figure 72: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Vietnam, 2012-2022
  • Figure 73: Fixed ASPU by service type, Vietnam, 2012-2022
  • Figure 74: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Vietnam
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