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市場調查報告書

FTTx服務區域、轉換率、Capex:全球市場動向與預測

FTTx Coverage, Conversion and Capex: Worldwide Trends and Forecasts 2016-2021

出版商 Analysys Mason 商品編碼 339715
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 55 Slides
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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FTTx服務區域、轉換率、Capex:全球市場動向與預測 FTTx Coverage, Conversion and Capex: Worldwide Trends and Forecasts 2016-2021
出版日期: 2016年12月01日 內容資訊: 英文 55 Slides
簡介

本報告針對全球FTTx市場進行調查分析、提供8個地區、64個市場的FTTx與電纜寬頻5年預測、FTTx主要動向、促進因素、阻礙因素、Capex等級分析等有條理的情報。

摘要整理

全球市場動向

  • 服務區域的擴大減緩、轉換率安定
  • 次世代連結 (NGA) 可能被13億個場所使用
  • FTTP的可用性在新興市場更具優勢
  • 全球Capex開始轉移向第2基本建設
  • NGA連接的可用性快速接近可能使用的世代數量
  • 成本:中堅所得國家的FTTP價值基準偏高
  • FTTC將面對投資的新局面、需要平衡短期、長期的策略
  • 北美特別關注取代有線NGA的「5G」固定無線連結

西歐

  • 服務區域比目標少了12%
  • 達到50%以上的NGA連接、但並非全部都是100Mbps

中歐、東歐

  • 良好便宜的寬頻在農村地區不完全
  • FMC服務

中東、非洲

  • 幾乎沒有GCC市場外的投資誘因
  • 缺少競爭讓光纖寬頻價格很高

撒哈拉以南非洲

  • 光纖寬頻成本因低所得地區不平均而升高
  • 服務尚在初期階段

中國

  • 投資焦點在於網路升級與競爭激烈的追加基本建設
  • 多方基本建設的競爭與FMC服務讓價格下滑

亞太地區先進國家

  • 投資焦點在於新安裝光纖寬頻與升級
  • 流量急速增加更促進投資

北美

  • 投資等級低
  • 美國FTTx轉換率停滯、加拿大法規當局介入

拉丁美洲

  • 電纜業者十穩定
  • 轉換率相當保守

預測方法與前題條件

關於Analysys Mason作者

圖表

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目錄

"The number of availabile NGA connections is fast approaching the number of households worldwide that could afford such connections."

The number of premises passed by next-generation access (NGA) is fast approaching the number of premises worldwide that could afford such a connection. New competing infrastructures are emerging to meet demand, often from households that have hitherto relied only on mobile. This report analyses and forecasts coverage (premises passed), conversion (active connections as a percentage of premises passed) and capex for FTTx architecture and technologies during 2012-2021.

This report provides:

  • 5-year forecasts for flavours of FTTx and cable broadband in eight regions and in 64 individual markets
  • analysis of the key trends, drivers and inhibitors of network roll-out and of subscriber take-up of FTTx
  • an assessment of the level of capital expenditure out to 2021.

KEY METRICS

  • Coverage (premises passed)
  • Conversion (premises with active connections as a percentage of premises passed)
  • Capex (split into network and connection)

Split by architecture/technology:

  • FTTC/VDSL or G.fast
  • FTTB/VDSL or G.fast
  • FTTB/LAN
  • FTTP (split into incumbent and alternative operator)
  • cable DOCSIS3.0 or 3.1

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE

RegionCountries
Western EuropeAustria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK.
Central and Eastern EuropeBulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine.
Middle East and North AfricaIsrael, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE.
Sub-Saharan AfricaGhana, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa.
EmergingAsia-PacificChina, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam.
DevelopedAsia-PacificAustralia, Hong Kong, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan.
North AmericaCanada, USA.
Latin AmericaArgentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Uruguay.

The report and accompanying data annex provide forecasts for eight regions and 64 individual countries.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Rupert Wood (Research Director) is the lead analyst for Analysys Mason's Network Investment Strategies and Traffic Forecasts research programmes. His primary areas of specialisation include next-generation networks, long-term industry strategy and forecasting the dynamics of convergence and substitution across fixed and mobile platforms. Rupert regularly contributes to the international press on a wide range of telecoms subjects and has been quoted by The Times, The Economist, Business Week, Telecommunications Online and La Tribune. Rupert has a PhD from the University of Cambridge, where he was a Lecturer before joining Analysys Mason.

Table of Contents

  • 7. Worldwide trends
  • 8. Worldwide: Coverage growth will slow by 2021, but conversion will continue to grow steadily
  • 9. NGA will be available to 1.3 billion premises worldwide by 2021
  • 10. FTTP availability is increasingly dominated by emerging markets
  • 11. Global capex will start to shift to second infrastructures and to upgrades
  • 12. The availability of an NGA connection is fast approaching the number of households that could afford such a connection
  • 13. The cost:value metrics of FTTP for mid-income countries are generally better than for richer countries
  • 14. FTTC incumbents facing a new phase of investment have to balance short-term tactics and long-term
  • 15. There is interest, particularly in North America, in ‘5G' fixed wireless access as an alternative to wireline NGA
  • 16. Western Europe
  • 17. Western Europe: Coverage will fall 12% short of the 100% target set by the European Digital Agenda by the end of 2021
  • 18. Western Europe: Over 50% of Western European premises will have an NGA connection by 2020, but not all will be 100Mbps
  • 19. Central and Eastern Europe
  • 20. Central and Eastern Europe: CEE has good, inexpensive broadband, but rural areas are generally underserved
  • 21. Central and Eastern Europe: Fixed-mobile convergence may stimulate take-up
  • 22. Middle East and North Africa
  • 23. Middle East and North Africa: There is little incentive to invest outside the GCC markets
  • 24. Middle East and North Africa: Lack of competition keeps fibre broadband prices high
  • 25. Sub-Saharan Africa
  • 26. Sub-Saharan Africa: The costs of fibre-based broadband are disproportionately high for a low-income region
  • 27. Sub-Saharan Africa: Services are too embryonic for conversion rates to be meaningful
  • 28. China
  • 29. China: The focus of investment has switched to network upgrades and additional competitive infrastructures
  • 30. China: Multi-infrastructure competition and FMC is driving prices down and take-up has boomed
  • 31. Rest of emerging Asia-Pacific
  • 32. Rest of emerging Asia-Pacific: Where it exists, state-managed roll-out of fixed broadband has led to impressive results
  • 33. Rest of emerging Asia-Pacific: Where investment has occurred, take-up rates have the potential to be very good
  • 34. Developed Asia-Pacific
  • 35. Developed Asia-Pacific: Investment is now focused on new and upgraded fibre infrastructures
  • 36. Developed Asia-Pacific: Strong traffic growth and continued take-up spur the case for further investment
  • 37. North America
  • 38. North America: Investment levels are weak in North America
  • 39. North America: Unless prices fall, US conversion rates for FTTx will stagnate; in Canada, the regulator has intervened
  • 40. Latin America
  • 41. Latin America: Cable operators are already well entrenched in the main addressable markets
  • 42. Latin America: Conversion rates remain rather subdued
  • 43. Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 44. Geographical scope: Forecasts are provided for 64 countries in 8 regions
  • 45. Definitions
  • 46. We take baseline costs for each technology and then apply several context-specific variables to determine total capex
  • 47. Top-level breakdown of the relative costs of FTTx technologies: basic topologies
  • 48. Baseline unit cost assumptions for FTTC/VDSL and FTTB/dp/VDSL
  • 49. Baseline unit cost assumptions for FTTP/GPON
  • 50. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 51. About the authors
  • 52. About Analysys Mason
  • 53. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 54. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: NGA coverage by technology, worldwide, 2011-2021
  • Figure 2: Fixed broadband active connections, by technology, and NGA share of connections worldwide, 2011-2021
  • Figure 3: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTX, worldwide, 2011-2021
  • Figure 4: NGA coverage by region, 2013-2021
  • Figure 5: NGA subscriptions by region, 2013-2021
  • Figure 6: NGA subscriptions as a proportion of premises passed, by region, 2013-2021
  • Figure 7: FTTP coverage by region, 2013-2021
  • Figure 8: FTTP subscriptions by region, 2013-2021
  • Figure 9: FTTP subscriptions as a proportion of premises passed, by region, 2013-2021
  • Figure 10: FTTx capex, by worldwide region, 2013-2021
  • Figure 11: NGA affordability, availability and adoption, worldwide, 2013-2021
  • Figure 12: Benchmark cost per premises passed, FTTP deployments worldwide
  • Figure 13: NGA coverage by technology, Western Europe, 2014-2021
  • Figure 14: FTTx capex by technology, Western Europe, 2014-2021
  • Figure 15: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx , Western Europe, 2014-2021
  • Figure 16: Active connections per premises, by technology, Western Europe, 2014-2021
  • Figure 17: NGA coverage by technology, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014-2021
  • Figure 18: FTTx capex by technology, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014-2021
  • Figure 19: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx , Central and Eastern Europe, 2014-2021
  • Figure 20: Active connections per premises, by technology, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014-2021
  • Figure 21: NGA coverage by technology, Middle East and North Africa, 2014-2021
  • Figure 22: FTTx capex by technology, Middle East and North Africa, 2014-2021
  • Figure 23: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx , Middle East and North Africa, 2014-2021
  • Figure 24: Active connections per premises, by technology, Middle East and North Africa, 2014-2021
  • Figure 25: NGA coverage by technology, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014-2021
  • Figure 26: FTTx capex by technology, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014-2021
  • Figure 27: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx , Middle East and North Africa, 2014-2021
  • Figure 28: Active connections per premises, by technology, Middle East and North Africa, 2014-2021
  • Figure 29: NGA coverage by technology, China, 2014-2021
  • Figure 30: FTTx capex by technology, China, 2014-2021
  • Figure 31: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx, China, 2014-2021
  • Figure 32: Active connections per premises, by technology, China, 2014-2021
  • Figure 33: NGA coverage by technology, rest of emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2021
  • Figure 34: FTTx capex by technology, rest of emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2021
  • Figure 35: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx, rest of emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2021
  • Figure 36: Active connections per premises, by technology, rest of emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2021
  • Figure 37: NGA coverage by technology, developed Asia-Pacific, 2014-2021
  • Figure 38: FTTx capex by technology, developed Asia-Pacific, 2014-2021
  • Figure 39: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx, developed Asia-Pacific, 2014-2021
  • Figure 40: Active connections per premises, by technology, developed Asia-Pacific, 2014-2021
  • Figure 41: NGA coverage by technology, North America, 2014-2021
  • Figure 42: FTTx capex by technology, North America, 2014-2021
  • Figure 43: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx, North America, 2014-2021
  • Figure 44: Active connections per premises, by technology, North America, 2014-2021
  • Figure 45: NGA coverage by technology, Latin America, 2014-2021
  • Figure 46: FTTx capex by technology, Latin America, 2014-2021
  • Figure 47: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx, Latin America, 2014-2021
  • Figure 48: Active connections per premises, by technology, Latin America, 2014-2021
  • Figure 49: Countries covered in this report, by region
  • Figure 50: Definitions used in this report
  • Figure 51: capex model outline
  • Figure 52: Basic overview of FTTx network topologies and elements
  • Figure 53: Baseline capital unit cost assumptions, FTTC/VDSL and FTTB/VDSL
  • Figure 54: Baseline capital unit cost assumptions, FTTH/GPON
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