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市場調查報告書

FTTx的服務區域和Capex:全球趨勢與預測

FTTx Coverage and Capex: Worldwide Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022

出版商 Analysys Mason 商品編碼 339715
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 17 Slides
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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FTTx的服務區域和Capex:全球趨勢與預測 FTTx Coverage and Capex: Worldwide Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022
出版日期: 2017年12月15日 內容資訊: 英文 17 Slides
簡介

本報告提供全球FTTx形勢調查分析,8個地區、64個市場上的FTTx和電纜 (DOCSIS3.0/3.1)的5年預測,FTTx的網路推出的主要趨勢、促進因素、阻礙因素,Capex的等級分析等系統性資訊。

全球趨勢

  • 次世代接取 (NGA)的服務區域擴大鈍化,Capex最大化
  • 某業者1年FTTP涵蓋國家設施的最大25%
  • 部分已發展的市場FTTx的服務區域達90%以上
  • 歐洲每家庭的FTTP成本大不相同
  • 目前FTTP的服務區域及其他FTTP企業的服務區域有相關性
  • 在新興市場間纖維的利用可能性不同
  • 歐洲的業者對VDSL35b有很大興趣,深入G.fast的潛在市場
  • DOCSIS3.1升級,對電纜業者來說非常低成本

西歐

  • 西歐:各種FTTP的投資模式登場

中歐、東歐

  • 中歐、東歐:NGA的服務區域擴大相對較緩慢

中東、非洲

  • 中東、非洲:許多國家NGA的服務區域持續不足

撒哈拉以南的非洲

  • 撒哈拉以南的非洲:負擔能力抑制NGA的推出不滿設施的5%

中國和其他亞太地區的新興國家

  • 中國:下一代PON的升級
  • 其他亞太地區的新興國家:業者擴大FTTx的服務區域的機會

亞太地區的已開發國家

  • 亞太地區的已開發國家:政府支援的NGA的推出繼續發展

北美

  • 北美:加拿大的業者投資FTTP的服務區域擴大

南美

  • 南美:銅為基礎的NGA技術氣勢漸增

預測手法與前提條件

關於著者、Analysys Mason

本網頁內容可能與最新版本有所差異。詳細情況請與我們聯繫。

目錄

"The FTTx landscape is changing as sizeable roll-outs take place in important markets and new infrastructure players enter the market."

Interest in FTTx deployments remains strong - roll-outs are taking place in more markets and operators are considering how to expand and/or upgrade their initial deployments. This report analyses the global trends in FTTx coverage and capex.

This report provides:

  • 5-year forecasts for flavours of FTTx and cable (DOCSIS3.0/3.1) coverage in 8 regions and 64 individual markets
  • analysis of the key trends, drivers and inhibitors of network roll-out of FTTx
  • an assessment of the level of capital expenditure out to 2022.

KEY METRICS:

  • Coverage (premises passed)
  • Capex (split into network and connection)
  • Split by architecture/technology:
    • FTTC/VDSL or G.fast
    • FTTB/VDSL or G.fast
    • FTTB/LAN
    • FTTP (split into incumbent and alternative operator)
    • cable DOCSIS3.0 or 3.1.

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE:

RegionCountries
Western EuropeAustria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK.
Central and Eastern EuropeBulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine.
Middle East and North AfricaIsrael, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE.
Sub-Saharan AfricaGhana, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa.
Emerging Asia-PacificChina, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam.
Developed Asia-PacificAustralia, Hong Kong, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan.
North AmericaCanada, USA.
Latin AmericaArgentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Uruguay.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Stephen Wilson (Principal Analyst) works on our Network Investment Strategies and Network Traffic research programmes. His research covers the implications for different stakeholders of new wireless and fixed technologies. He is based in Analysys Mason's Singapore office, from where he closely follows market developments in the Asia-Pacific region. Stephen has more than 8 years of experience in the telecoms sector and is a graduate in Philosophy, Politics and Economics from St Catherine's College, Oxford University.

Table of Contents

  • 6.Worldwide trends
  • 7.NGA coverage increases are slowing and global FTTx capex has peaked
  • 8.Benchmarks suggest that an operator can cover a maximum of 25% of a country's premises with FTTP in a single year
  • 9.FTTx coverage is above 90% in some developed markets and most others will have achieved this coverage level by 2022
  • 10.FTTP costs per home passed vary considerably across Europe driven by a number of critical variables
  • 11.Incumbent FTTP coverage and coverage from other FTTP players are closely correlated
  • 12.The availability of fibre availability varies between emerging markets and coverage is particularly low in the Indian sub-continent and North Africa
  • 13.VDSL35b has attracted considerable interest from European operators and is eating into the potential market for G.fast
  • 14.DOCSIS3.1 upgrades can be remarkably low-cost for cable operators and are beginning to increase in number
  • 15.Western Europe
  • 16.Western Europe: A variety of FTTP investment models are emerging
  • 17.Central and Eastern Europe
  • 18.Central and Eastern Europe: Increases in NGA coverage will be relatively modest during the forecast period
  • 19.Middle East and North Africa
  • 20.Middle East and North Africa: Many countries in the region will continue to lack significant NGA coverage in 2022
  • 21.Sub-Saharan Africa
  • 22.Sub-Saharan Africa: Affordability will constrain NGA roll-outs to less than 5% of premises in 2022
  • 23.China and rest of emerging Asia-Pacific
  • 24.China: Attention is beginning to shift to next-generation PON upgrades
  • 25.Rest of emerging Asia-Pacific: Operators have an opportunity to increase FTTx coverage in the Indian sub-continent
  • 26.Developed Asia-Pacific
  • 27.Developed Asia-Pacific: Government-backed NGA roll-outs in Australia and New Zealand continue to make progress
  • 28.North America
  • 29.North America: Canada's operators are investing in extending FTTP coverage
  • 30.Latin America
  • 31.Latin America: Copper-based NGA technologies have gained some traction in Latin America
  • 32.Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 33.Geographical scope: Forecasts are provided for 64 countries in 8 regions
  • 34.Definitions
  • 35.We take baseline costs for each technology and then apply several context-specific variables to determine total capex
  • 36.Top-level breakdown of the relative costs of FTTx technologies: basic topologies
  • 37.Baseline unit cost assumptions for FTTC/VDSL and FTTB/dp/VDSL
  • 38.Baseline unit cost assumptions for FTTP/GPON
  • 39.About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 40.About the authors
  • 41.About Analysys Mason
  • 42.Research from Analysys Mason
  • 43.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: NGA coverage by technology, worldwide, 2012-2022
  • Figure 2: NGA coverage by region, 2014-2022
  • Figure 3: FTTx capex, by worldwide region, 2014-2022
  • Figure 4: Year-on-year percentage point increase in FTTP coverage of total country premises
  • Figure 5: FTTx coverage of total country premises by selected market, end 2017 and end 2022
  • Figure 6: FTTP costs per home passed and incumbent FTTP coverage, selected European markets, end 2017
  • Figure 7: Incumbent and other operator FTTP coverage, end of 2017, selected major markets
  • Figure 8: FTTx coverage end 2017 and nominal GDP per capita 2016, selected emerging markets
  • Figure 9: FTTC and FTTB/dp homes passed, worldwide, 2017-2022
  • Figure 10: Cost per premises passed for DOCSIS3.1 and downstream/upstream frequency upgrades
  • Figure 11: NGA coverage by technology, Western Europe, 2015-2022
  • Figure 12: FTTx capex by technology, Western Europe, 2015-2022
  • Figure 13: NGA coverage by technology, Central and Eastern Europe, 2015-2022
  • Figure 14: FTTx capex by technology, Central and Eastern Europe, 2015-2022
  • Figure 15: NGA coverage by technology, Middle East and North Africa, 2015-2022
  • Figure 16: FTTx capex by technology, Middle East and North Africa, 2015-2022
  • Figure 17: NGA coverage by technology, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2015-2022
  • Figure 18: FTTx capex by technology, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2015-2022
  • Figure 19: NGA coverage by technology, China, 2015-2022
  • Figure 20: FTTx capex by technology, China, 2015-2022
  • Figure 21: NGA coverage by technology, rest of emerging Asia-Pacific, 2015-2022
  • Figure 22: FTTx capex by technology, rest of emerging Asia-Pacific, 2015-2022
  • Figure 23: NGA coverage by technology, developed Asia-Pacific, 2015-2022
  • Figure 24: FTTx capex by technology, developed Asia-Pacific, 2015-2022
  • Figure 25: NGA coverage by technology, North America, 2015-2022
  • Figure 26: FTTx capex by technology, North America, 2015-2022
  • Figure 27: NGA coverage by technology, Latin America, 2015-2022
  • Figure 28: FTTx capex by technology, Latin America, 2015-2022
  • Figure 29: Countries covered in this report, by region
  • Figure 30: Definitions used in this report
  • Figure 31: Capex model outline
  • Figure 32: Basic overview of FTTx network topologies and elements
  • Figure 33: Baseline capital unit cost assumptions, FTTC/VDSL and FTTB/VDSL
  • Figure 34: Baseline capital unit cost assumptions, FTTP/GPON
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