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市場調查報告書

西歐16個國家的通訊市場趨勢、預測:2016-2021年

Western Europe Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts (16 Countries) 2016-2021

出版商 Analysys Mason 商品編碼 337314
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 52 Slides
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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西歐16個國家的通訊市場趨勢、預測:2016-2021年 Western Europe Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts (16 Countries) 2016-2021
出版日期: 2016年09月15日 內容資訊: 英文 52 Slides
簡介

本報告提供西歐整體及主要16個國家的345個以上的行動、固定KPI的5年預測,各行動、固定服務類型及主要各國趨勢、促進要素、預測的前提條件相關詳細的分析,業者的策略的概要,及行動、固定業者的建議等彙整資料。

調查對象國家

  • 奧地利
  • 比利時
  • 丹麥
  • 芬蘭
  • 法國
  • 德國
  • 希臘
  • 愛爾蘭
  • 義大利
  • 荷蘭
  • 挪威
  • 葡萄牙
  • 西班牙
  • 瑞典
  • 瑞士
  • 英國

目錄

  • 摘要整理
  • 行動、固定市場主要趨勢,促進要素,及預測的前提條件
  • 對通訊業者來說的主要預測、建議
  • 地區的預測、各國家比較
  • 對象地區:西歐16個國家構成2015年的全球通訊收益的21%
  • 市場背景:法國,德國,及英國構成地區的總收益的半數以上
  • 收益、ARPU:行動、固定寬頻的ARPU的下降2015年鈍化,可是在預測期間持續
  • 行動普及率:西歐市場變成熟,大部分的國家行動用戶基礎減少
  • 行動連線:在2016年中4G是主導技術
  • 智慧型手機、LTE:希臘除外在全部的西歐各國,2021年的智慧型手機的終端佔有率超過90%
  • 行動寬頻:連網型平板電腦的行動寬頻用戶基礎的成長減速
  • 行動ARPU:幾個市場開始恢復,不過,整體持續下降趨勢
  • 行動語音:OTT服務傳統的語音利用的替代
  • 資料、收益,各世代:行動數據流量2015-2021年之間成長到約6倍
  • 固定服務
  • 固定寬頻
  • 各西歐市場主要促進要素
  • 主要的促進要素:調查手法
  • 各國的預測
  • 法國
  • 德國
  • 義大利
  • 西班牙
  • 英國
  • 著者、Analysys Mason

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目錄

"Operators can take advantage of growing high-speed broadband demand by rolling out NGA broadband infrastructure that justifies a price increase."

Telecoms revenue in Western Europe will continue to decline in 2016-2021, but at a substantially lower rate than in the previous 5 years. Competition from over-the-top (OTT) players will erode voice revenue, but network upgrades and growing take-up of smartphones, 4G and NGA fixed broadband will drive revenue growth in data segments in both fixed and mobile markets.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • a 5-year forecast of more than 345 mobile and fixed KPIs for Western Europe, as a whole and for 16 key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

COVERAGE

Geographical coverageKey performance indicators

Region modelled

  • Western Europe (WE)

Countries modelled individually

  • Austria
  • Belgium
  • Denmark
  • Finland
  • France
  • Germany
  • Greece
  • Ireland
  • Italy
  • Netherlands
  • Norway
  • Portugal
  • Spain
  • Sweden
  • Switzerland
  • UK

Connections

Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone

Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

Revenue

Mobile

  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Roman Orvisky (Analyst) is a member of the regional markets research team in London, contributing to the Telecoms Market Matrix, European Core Forecasts, European Country Reports and Global Telecoms Forecasts programmes. Prior to joining Analysys Mason in November 2014, he worked in the Transaction Services department of the Royal Bank of Scotland in a customer experience internship role. During his studies, Roman focused on consumer behaviour in an online context, and has experience in churn modelling in the telecoms sector, social network analysis and browsing data analysis. Roman holds a Bachelor's degree in business from Durham University, and an MSc in marketing research from the Tilburg University School of Economics and Management.

Julia Martusewicz-Kulinska (Senior Analyst) is a member of the regional markets research team, contributing mainly to the European Core Forecasts, Telecoms Market Matrix and European Country Reports programmes. She has more than 14 years of research and telecoms industry regulations experience. Prior to joining Analysys Mason, she worked for the Polish national regulatory authority as the head of the Research Division, where she was responsible for telecoms market research, and as the leader of the Telecommunications Market Analysis Department, which was accountable for co-operation between the regulatory authority and the Information Society and Media DG of the European Commission.

William Hare (Senior Analyst) is the leader of Analysys Mason's Telecoms Market Matrix research programme, which tracks and compares telecoms metrics and market shares for all the major fixed and mobile operators in Europe. He also leads the European Country Reports programme, which provides insightful reports on 30 European telecoms markets. He is a key contributor to our European Core Forecasts and Global Telecoms Forecasts programmes, specialising in business and market modelling and data analysis. William joined Analysys Mason's Research practice in 2010 after 3 years as a consultant in our Consulting practice, working directly with clients in Asia, Africa and Europe. He read mathematics at the University of Cambridge.

Table of Contents

  • 8. Executive summary
  • 9. Total telecoms revenue growth will decline much less steeply over the next 5 years, after a period of rapid decline
  • 10. Mobile and fixed data spend will mitigate the drop in voice revenue, but will not entirely compensate for it
  • 11. Different trends in retail revenue growth are beginning to emerge in European countries, after years of near-universal decline
  • 12. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
  • 13. Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators
  • 14. Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
  • 15. Geographical coverage: 16 Western European countries comprised 21% of worldwide telecoms revenue in 2015
  • 16. Market context: France, Germany and the UK account for more than half of the regional revenue total
  • 17. Revenue and ARPU: The decline in mobile and fixed broadband ARPU slowed in 2015, but will continue throughout the forecast period
  • 18. Mobile penetration: WE markets are mature and the mobile user base will decline in most of them
  • 19. Mobile connections: 4G will become the predominant technology in 2016
  • 20. Smartphones and LTE: All WE countries, except Greece, will exceed 90% smartphone share of handsets in 2021
  • 21. Mobile broadband: Growth of the mid-screen (connected tablet) mobile broadband user base will slow
  • 22. Mobile ARPU: Some markets will begin to recover, but the overall average will continue to trend down
  • 23. Mobile voice: OTT services will substitute for traditional voice usage
  • 24. Data and revenue by generation: Mobile data traffic will grow nearly six-fold between 2015 and 2021
  • 25. Fixed services: VDSL will take over as the leading fixed broadband access technology in 2019
  • 26. Fixed broadband: Italy will be the fastest growing market, as substantial network improvements are planned
  • 27. Key drivers at a glance for each Western Europe market
  • 28. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
  • 29. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
  • 30. Individual country forecasts
  • 31. France: Total service revenue will continue to decline slightly, due to continuing high revenue losses on voice services
  • 32. France - mobile: Increasing 4G coverage and high smartphone penetration will drive mobile handset data ARPU
  • 33. France - fixed: Operators will focus on growing NGA penetration and bundle take-up to protect broadband ARPU from decline
  • 34. Germany: A decline in fixed voice will be the main driver behind decreasing overall service revenue
  • 35. Germany - mobile: Revenue will return to growth late in the forecast period, as fixed-mobile convergence discounts dissipate
  • 36. Germany - fixed: VDSL will be the main driver of growth, due to Telekom's vectoring upgrades
  • 37. Italy: Total service revenue will decline to EUR24.7 billion and fixed services will represent 51% of retail revenue in 2021
  • 38. Italy - mobile: Handset ARPU decline will slow, driven by value-added services and increasing data usage
  • 39. Italy - fixed: The shift from traditional DSL network to NGA will drive broadband service take-up
  • 40. Spain: Growth in fixed broadband and mobile data revenue will prevent further significant declines in total service revenue
  • 41. Spain - mobile: Increasing smartphone take-up will stabilise handset data ARPU
  • 42. Spain - fixed: Fixed fibre roll-out and upselling of converged services will boost NGA penetration and drive ASPU growth
  • 43. UK: Despite the Brexit vote, the UK market will remain buoyant in many areas
  • 44. UK - mobile: Competition remains strong, and we expect convergence to put further pressure on mobile ARPU
  • 45. UK - fixed: Broadband take-up is high, so the focus is on increasing access speed and take-up of value-added services
  • 46. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 47. About the authors [1]
  • 48. About the authors [2]
  • 49. Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
  • 50. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 51. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Western Europe, 2011-2021
  • Figure 2: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue growth by service type, Western Europe, 2015-2021
  • Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue growth by type and country, Western Europe, 2015-2021
  • Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for Western Europe
  • Figure 5: Mobile connections by technology generation and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, Western Europe, 2021
  • Figure 6: Metrics for the 16 countries modelled individually in Western Europe, 2015
  • Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, Western Europe, 2011-2021
  • Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and growth rates, Western Europe, 2015-2021
  • Figure 9: Connections by type, and growth rates, Western Europe, 2015-2021
  • Figure 10: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Western Europe, 2011-2021
  • Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G, 4G and 5G's share of connections, Western Europe, 2011-2021
  • Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), Western Europe, 2015 and 2021
  • Figure 13: Mobile broadband connections by screen size and technology, Western Europe, 2011-2021
  • Figure 14: Mobile ARPU by country, Western Europe, 2011-2021
  • Figure 15: Average mobile minutes of use per month, Western Europe, 2011-2021
  • Figure 16: Mobile service revenue and ARPU by technology, Western Europe, 2011-2021
  • Figure 17: Data traffic per month and revenue per megabyte, Western Europe, 2011-2021
  • Figure 18: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, pay-TV and mobile broadband connections, Western Europe, 2011-2021
  • Figure 19: Residential fixed broadband penetration of households by country, Western Europe, 2011-2021
  • Figure 20: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2015) and future trajectory (2016-2021), by country, Western Europe
  • Figure 21: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
  • Figure 22: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), France, 2011-2021
  • Figure 23: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, France, 2015-2021
  • Figure 24: Connections by type, and growth rates, France, 2015-2021
  • Figure 25: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, France, 2011-2021
  • Figure 26: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, France, 2011-2021
  • Figure 27: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, France
  • Figure 28: Fixed penetration rates by service type, France, 2011-2021
  • Figure 29: Fixed ASPU by service type, France, 2011-2021
  • Figure 30: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, France
  • Figure 31: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Germany, 2011-2021
  • Figure 32: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Germany, 2015-2021
  • Figure 33: Connections by type, and growth rates, Germany, 2015-2021
  • Figure 34: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Germany, 2011-2021
  • Figure 35: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Germany, 2011-2021
  • Figure 36: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Germany
  • Figure 37: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Germany, 2011-2021
  • Figure 38: Fixed ASPU by service type, Germany, 2011-2021
  • Figure 39: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Germany
  • Figure 40: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Italy, 2011-2021
  • Figure 41: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Italy, 2015-2021
  • Figure 42: Connections by type, and growth rates, Italy, 2015-2021
  • Figure 43: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Italy, 2011-2021
  • Figure 44: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Italy, 2011-2021
  • Figure 45: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Italy
  • Figure 46: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Italy, 2011-2021
  • Figure 47: Fixed ASPU by service type, Italy, 2011-2021
  • Figure 48: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Italy
  • Figure 49: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Spain, 2011-2021
  • Figure 50: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Spain, 2015-2021
  • Figure 51: Connections by type, and growth rates, Spain, 2015-2021
  • Figure 52: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Spain, 2011-2021
  • Figure 53: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Spain, 2011-2021
  • Figure 54: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Spain
  • Figure 55: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Spain, 2011-2021
  • Figure 56: Fixed ASPU by service type, Spain, 2011-2021
  • Figure 57: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Spain
  • Figure 58: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), UK, 2011-2021
  • Figure 59: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, UK, 2015-2021
  • Figure 60: Connections by type, and growth rates, UK, 2015-2021
  • Figure 61: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, UK, 2011-2021
  • Figure 62: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, UK, 2011-2021
  • Figure 63: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, UK
  • Figure 64: Fixed penetration rates by service type, UK, 2011-2021
  • Figure 65: Fixed ASPU by service type, UK, 2011-2021
  • Figure 66: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, UK
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