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市場調查報告書
固定行動整合市場
Fixed-Mobile Convergence: opportunities and strategies for the mass market
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本報告已在2011年07月19日停止出版。

集固定線與行動優點於一身的新服務型態已經正式登場。顧及往後 市場的成長表現,行動通訊企業也倉卒地進行相關因應措施的探討。許多企業甚至已經開始預測用戶的需求,擬定以固定 / 行動整合(FMC)為主的策略計劃。
專精通訊領域,擁有世界性評價的英國專業市調公司 Analysys Ltd.(總公司:劍橋),調查與分析 FMC 在大眾市場的市場機會與策略,並歸結未來市場預測結果,出版綜合報告書 “Fixed-Mobile Convergence: opportunities and strategies for the mass market”。
此報告書在下面的內容裡,不僅說明 FMC 的未來發展、優勢與風險、產業展望,也探討各類行動通訊企業的策略分析、至 2010 年前的西歐市場預測等。
0 摘要
1 顧客獲得競爭與固定 / 行動替代
- 通訊市場的行動服務支出
- 鎖定相同市場的固定線 / 行動通訊企業
- 固定 / 行動替代(FMS)的策略
2 技術發展與用戶需求
- FMD 規格的登場與服務發展的遲緩
- FMC 的不明確潛在需求
3 固定線專門通訊企業
- FMC 對通訊企業的威脅
- 透過 FMC 的通話替代增加與加入費用的獲利限制
- BT Fusion 的教訓
- Altnet 服務差別化
- 寬頻語音服務
- 固定線專門通訊企業的市場機會
4 整合通訊企業
- 行動成長所必須的寬頻
- 在非語音服務上有所發展的 CPE
- 整合通訊企業的課題
- 競爭壓力的影響
5 行動通訊企業
- 3G 與行動電話特定的 FMS 策略
- 行動通訊企業的課題
- 支援 FMS 策略的 FMC
6 為了產業變遷的FMC
- FMC 帶給服務提供商的影響
- 基礎建設的擁有率
- 無接縫網路下的顧客服務
- 處在絕佳位置的整合通訊企業
- 促進中小企業合併的 FMC
7 市場預測
- 在發展 FMC 上有所進展的法國、義大利、德國
- 與寬頻滲透率成正比的 FMC 發展
- 至 2007 年前在滲透率上沒有太大進展的 FMC 行動提案
Abstract
As the network and end-user technologies underpinning fixed and mobile
services become increasingly aligned around Internet Protocol, new services
are appearing that attempt to harness the best of both mobile and fixed
worlds. In response, operators have had to consider their strategic options in
their quest for future growth. Many operators are placing strategic bets on
fixed-mobile convergence (FMC) to satisfy a perceived customer demand, as
mobile becomes redefined as personalised mobility services for an
access-independent era.
But what are the prospects for FMC? What are the risks and potential rewards
for embarking down this path? How will the industry evolve? Which telcos are
best positioned to emerge as the winners and why?
Fixed-Mobile Convergence: opportunities and strategies for the mass market
answers your key questions:
- how can fixed-only operators utilise FMC as a defensive weapon against
fixed--mobile substitution (FMS) and what are the risks to their existing
businesses?
- is FMC a new opportunity for mobile carriers looking for growth beyond
maturing mobile markets with saturated penetration rates?
- what are the options for mobile operators who do not have a
fixed-broadband service in their portfolio and want to go-it-alone with a
mobile-only strategy?
- how can integrated fixed--mobile operators leverage their presence in both
markets to offer converged services that are simple to use and simple to
understand for the mass market consumer?
Fixed-Mobile Convergence: opportunities and strategies for the mass market
analyses the strategic opportunities and threats which FMC poses, by operator
type:
- fixed-only operators
- mobile-only operators
- fixed-mobile integrated operators
The report provides forecasts for fixed--mobile convergence in Western Europe,
2005-2010, including:
- Western European households with broadband and mobile, 2005--2010
- Western European households with dual-mode FMC services, 2005--2010
- Penetration of Western European households with broadband and mobile,
- 2005--2010
- FMC penetration of total households in Western Europe, 2005--2010
- Number of individual FMC handsets in Western Europe, 2005--2010
- Dual-mode FMC handset sales in Western Europe, 2005--2010
Table of Contents
- 0 Summary
- 1 Fixed--mobile substitution raises the stakes in the battle for customer ownership
- 1.1 Mobile services are taking an ever greater share of telecoms spend
- 1.2 Fixed and mobile operators are targeting the same markets in pursuit of growth
- 1.3 Some operators are responding to (and pre-empting) fixed-mobile substitution with convergence strategies
- 2 Technological advances are paving the way for fixed--mobile convergence but customer demand remains uncertain
- 2.1 FMC standards are emerging but the lack of converged handsets is delaying roll-out of services
- 2.2 Many of the potential demand-side drivers for FMC remain unproven
- 3 Fixed-only operators are driving current fixed--mobile convergence initiatives
- 3.1 FMS poses the biggest threat to operators with substantial circuit-switched telephony revenues
- 3.2 FMC encourages call substitution but could protect subscription revenues
- 3.3 Lessons can be learned from BT Fusion, the first seamless residential FMC service on the market
- 3.4 Fast-moving altnets are starting to differentiate themselves with FMC services (and are being snapped up)
- 3.5 Altnets are partnering in mobility to differentiate their services and gain market share
- 3.6 Broadband voice services provide a strong base for the launch of FMC services
- 3.7 The opportunities for most fixed-only players far outweigh the threats, if they can obtain leverage in the mobile value chain
- 4 Integrated operators are in pole position to deliver fixed--mobile convergence but must watch margins
- 4.1 Mobile is being redefined as personalised mobility services and bundled with broadband in the quest for future growth
- 4.2 CPE is also evolving to capitalise on growth in non-voice services
- 4.3 Integrated operators have to segment their market to minimise margin erosion
- 4.4 Competitive pressures will dictate when integrated operators introduce converged services
- 5 Mobile operators could go-it-alone, but will need to effectively address the broadband market
- 5.1 Cellular-only FMS strategies fit well with 3G plans but lack an adequate solution for Internet access
- 5.2 Mobile-only players are currently active in FMC through partnerships but increased interest in broadband could spur deeper involvement
- 5.3 Mobile operators may use FMC as a complementary strategy to FMS
- 6 Fixed--mobile convergence may act as a catalyst for wider industry transformation
- 6.1 Fixed--mobile convergence will drive service providers to take a greater role in the provision of end-user devices
- 6.2 Ownership of infrastructure improves the bottom line for FMC
- 6.3 Customer service will be key in a world of seamless networks
- 6.4 Integrated operators are best positioned to take advantage of the new landscape but have many challenges to overcome
- 6.5 FMC is likely to spur consolidation of smaller players exposed by a lack of broadband or mobile services
- 7 Our forecasts show that fixed--mobile convergence services will be adopted by 16% of broadband households by 2010
- 7.1 The French market is the most promising for long-term FMC adoption, followed by Italy and Germany
- 7.2 Adoption of FMC services is closely aligned with broadband penetration among the mobile subscriber base
- 7.3 FMC services are unlikely to achieve significant penetration of the addressable market until 2007
Actions
List of Figures and Tables
- Figure 4.1: An illustration of the home gateway as the centrepiece of residential convergence strategies
- Figure 7.1: Number of households with broadband and mobile subscription(s) in Western Europe, 2005--2010
- Figure 7.2: Western European FMC subscriber households as a subset of households with broadband and mobile subscriptions
- Figure 7.3: Individual subscribers associated with FMC services
- Figure 7.4: Dual-mode FMC handset sales in Western Europe, 2005-2010
- Table 2.1: Network architectures for dual-mode FMC services
- Table 3.1: Dual-mode FMC initiatives by fixed-only operators
- Table 3.2: BT Fusion service characteristics
- Table 3.3: Service characteristics of freenet.des iP1
- Table 3.4: Opportunities and threats for fixed-only operators
- Table 4.1: Mass-market dual-mode FMC initiatives (actual or planned) from integrated operators
- Table 4.2: France Telecoms residential FMC services (includes bundled services)
- Table 4.3: Opportunities and threats for integrated operators
- Table 5.1: O2 Germanys KPIs in comparison to market average at March 2005
- Table 5.2: Service characteristics of Vodafone D2s Zuhause portfolio
- Table 5.3: Opportunities and threats in dual-mode FMC for mobile-only operators
- Table 6.1: Positioning of service providers for FMC
- Table 7.1: Market prospects for FMC services in Western Europe
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