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市場調查報告書

全球的通訊市場未來預測:中間預測更新

Global Telecoms Market: Interim Forecast Update 2014-2019

出版商 Analysys Mason 商品編碼 324681
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 33 Slides
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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全球的通訊市場未來預測:中間預測更新 Global Telecoms Market: Interim Forecast Update 2014-2019
出版日期: 2015年02月17日 內容資訊: 英文 33 Slides
簡介

全球的通訊服務市場收益金額、2019年為止預計擴大為1兆7900億美金。作為市場成長的因素、新興國家市場的服務普及率的提升及、先進國家移動末端 (行動、手機) 檔案通訊的支出金額擴大等。無論哪一國、地區的行動末端檔案通訊佔收益額的大部分、各電信業者的趨勢及課題依照國家會有不同的差異。先進國家市場的金額層面之擴大 (手機普及率的提升及、經由LTE、智慧型電話的檔案通訊支出金額的擴大) 為主力外、新興國家市場中質量的擴大 (3G/4G智慧型電話使用者的增加) 成為主要的成長因素。

本報告書內容為分析全球各地區通訊市場 (固定回線通訊、行動通訊) 今後的展望、最新的市場調查結果及匯率的變動上、推測今後5年間的收益金額預測值及、主要電信業者的KPI (主要業績評價指標) 等內容。

實施摘要

  • 全球的通訊市場收益金額、以新興國家市場的發展和先進國家市場的行動末端檔案通訊為中心、到2019年為止會持續的成長
  • 行動末端檔案服務不管在哪一個地區都帶來很大的收益金額:有效活用的潛在市場仍舊很大
  • 零售收益金額不論在哪一個地區到2019年為止都擴大:僅只歐洲有價格的競爭外、北美在2017日圓達到頂點
  • 智慧型電話、LTE:智慧型電話普及的趨勢在新興國家中仍舊保有很大的勢力、LTE市場幾乎限定為先進國家
  • 上一次預測轉移的主要課題:在眾多的市場中LTE的普及速度比初期預測更高、促進檔案服務的轉移
  • 預測的再檢討:市場收益金額成長率的展望並無變更、匯率減價部分需要進行檔案的修訂

各地區的預測

  • 中東歐:收益金額幾乎沒有變化、語音通話到檔案通訊的轉移比預測更快
  • 中東歐:幾乎所有的國家達到收益金額的高峰、土耳其在2017年達到高峰
  • 亞太地區的新進國家:下修以前的收益金額檔案、成長展望逐漸明朗
  • 亞太地區的先進國家:收益金額到2019年為止緩慢的擴大、但IPTV帶動更迅速成長的固定回線通訊的收益金額
  • 亞太地區的新興國家:收益金額預測並無變化、加速語音通話的固定回線通訊到行動通訊的轉移
  • 亞太地區的新興國家:中國的成長率最高、收益擴大部分的69%與行動末端檔案通訊相關
  • 拉丁美洲:匯率減價之故、下修過去的市場檔案、今後的成長展望會更加明確
  • 拉丁美洲:地區內2大市場(巴西、墨西哥)的競爭激烈化之故成長率下降
  • 中東、北非:智慧型電話的普及比預測來的快、聯繫行動末端檔案通訊收益金額的擴大
  • 中東、北非:灣岸合作會議 (GCC) 各國的收益金額佔了絕大部分、尤其以卡塔爾為首位
  • 北美:檔案服務為中心、2017年為止持續市場收益金額的擴大、下修過去的固定回線收益金額
  • 北美:美國佔地區內市場的大部分、整體地區以及美國市場都在2017年迎接最高峰
  • 薩哈拉以南、非洲:匯率減價之故、過去市場檔案以及今後的檔案皆會下修
  • 撒哈拉以南、非洲:固定回線通訊仍停留在小規模、行動通訊收益金額 (目前的普及率仍低之故) 會逐漸擴大
  • 西歐:LTE/行動末端檔案通訊的使用頻率/固定回線寬頻的ARPU展望的改善、聯繫收益金額的擴大
  • 西歐:英國市場仍舊維持活躍的現況、南歐各國持續不景氣

關於筆者及Analysys Mason

圖表一覽

目錄

Worldwide telecoms service revenue will grow to USD1.79 trillion in 2019, driven by increasing service penetration in emerging markets and mobile handset data spending in developed regions.

Mobile handset data services will have the highest revenue growth by far in all regions worldwide, and offer significant monetisation opportunities. The market dynamics and challenges for operators vary by country. Increasing value (that is, growing adoption of bundles and data spending via LTE smartphones) will drive revenue growth in developed markets, while increasing volume (that is, the rising number of 3G and ultimately 4G smartphone users) will drive growth in emerging markets.


This forecast report provides:

  • an interim update of our 5-year forecast of more than 100 mobile and fixed KPIs for the worldwide telecoms market and eight regions
  • an explanation of the significant changes in this edition, compared with our previous forecast
  • an extension of the forecast period to 2019.

COVERAGE

Geographical coverageMajor KPIs 

Regions modelled

  • Central and Eastern Europe
  • Developed Asia-Pacific
  • Emerging Asia-Pacific
  • Latin America
  • Middle East and North Africa
  • North America
  • Sub-Saharan Africa
  • Western Europe

Connections
Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone

Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTH/B, cable, BFWA, other

Revenue
Mobile

  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS
  • DSL, FTTH/B, cable, BFWA, other

 

Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Pablo Iacopino (Senior Analyst) focuses on forecasting and analysing telecoms markets in Europe and Latin America. He leads Analysys Mason's Global Telecoms Forecasts and European Core Forecasts research programmes, and is the lead analyst for research on the Latin America region. Pablo is also a key contributor to our European Country Reports and Telecoms Market Matrix. Pablo joined Analysys Mason in 2012, after 8 years in the telecoms industry. He worked for 5 years in Strategy and Investor Relations at Telecom Italia, where he was responsible for European telecoms benchmarking, followed by 3 years in investment banking as a senior equity research analyst covering telecoms stocks. Pablo specialises in industry analysis, benchmarking, modelling, forecasts and valuation. He holds a Master's degree in business administration and a postgraduate Master's degree in statistics and economics from Università degli Studi di Roma 'La Sapienza'.

Roman Orvisky (Research Analyst) is a member of the regional markets research team in London, contributing to data collection and modelling for the Telecoms Market Matrix, European Core Forecasts and European Country Reports programmes. Prior to joining Analysys Mason in November 2014, he worked in the Transaction Services department of the Royal Bank of Scotland in a customer experience internship role, analysing various sources of organisational client feedback in order to improve client experience. During his studies, Roman focused on consumer behaviour in an online context, and has experience in churn modelling in the telecoms sector, social network analysis and browsing data analysis. Roman holds a Bachelor's degree in business from Durham University, and is on course to obtain an MSc in marketing research from the Tilburg University School of Economics and Management.

Table of Contents

  • 6. Executive summary
  • 7. Global telecoms revenue will continue to grow through 2019, driven by emerging markets and mobile handset data in developed regions
  • 8. Mobile handset data services will have the highest revenue growth by far in all regions and offer significant monetisation opportunities
  • 9. Retail revenue will grow in all regions through 2019 except Europe where price competition and regulation is more intense; NA will peak in 2017
  • 10. Smartphones and LTE: Smartphone adoption will maintain momentum in emerging markets, but LTE will be mainly confined to developed markets
  • 11. Key changes since our previous forecast: LTE take-up is faster than anticipated in many markets and will accelerate the shift to data services
  • 12. Forecast revision: The revenue growth outlook is almost unchanged, but currency depreciation drove a revision to the 2013 revenue base
  • 13. Individual regional forecasts
  • 14. Central and Eastern Europe: The revenue forecast is almost unchanged, but the shift from voice to data is faster than expected
  • 15. Central and Eastern Europe: Revenue has already peaked in most markets - Turkey will be the last to peak, in 2017
  • 16. Developed Asia-Pacific: Historical revenue has been revised downwards, but the growth outlook has improved
  • 17. Developed Asia-Pacific: Revenue will grow in most markets through 2019; IPTV take-up is fast and will drive fixed revenue
  • 18. Emerging Asia-Pacific: The revenue forecast is almost unchanged, but fixed-mobile voice substitution will accelerate
  • 19. Emerging Asia-Pacific: China will have the fastest-growing market and handset data will generate 69% of its revenue growth
  • 20. Latin America: Revenue has been revised downwards because of currency depreciation, but the outlook for growth has improved
  • 21. Latin America: The two largest markets, Brazil and Mexico, will grow slowly because of competition
  • 22. Middle East and North Africa: Smartphone take-up is accelerating and will drive handset data revenue growth faster than anticipated
  • 23. Middle East and North Africa: GCC countries will account for most of the region's revenue growth through 2019, led by Qatar
  • 24. North America: Revenue will grow until 2017, driven by data services, but we have revised historical fixed revenue downwards
  • 25. North America: The USA dominates the NA telecoms market, and both markets will grow until 2017
  • 26. Sub-Saharan Africa: Historical revenue figures and forecasts have been revised down because of currency depreciation
  • 27. Sub-Saharan Africa: Fixed telecoms will remain insignificant, but mobile revenue will grow further because penetration is still low
  • 28. Western Europe: The improved outlook for LTE, handset data usage and fixed broadband ARPU has helped to boost revenue
  • 29. Western Europe: The UK market will be the most resilient, while southern European countries will continue to under-perform
  • 30. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 31. About the authors
  • 32. About Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Summary of report coverage
  • Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue, worldwide, 2009-2019
  • Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, worldwide, 2013-2019
  • Figure 4: CAGRs for fixed and mobile retail revenue (2013-2019) and market size by total retail revenue (2019), by region, worldwide
  • Figure 5: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), worldwide, 2013 and 2019
  • Figure 6: Summary of major changes compared with our June 2014 worldwide forecast
  • Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue, worldwide, 2013 and 2018
  • Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, worldwide, 2013-2018
  • Figure 9: Connections by type, and growth rates, worldwide, 2013-2018
  • Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Central and Eastern Europe, 2009-2019
  • Figure 11: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Central and Eastern Europe
  • Figure 12: CAGRs for telecoms service revenue by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2019
  • Figure 13: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, developed Asia-Pacific, 2009-2019
  • Figure 14: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, developed Asia-Pacific
  • Figure 15: CAGRs for telecoms service revenue by country, developed Asia-Pacific, 2013-2019
  • Figure 16: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2009-2019
  • Figure 17: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, emerging Asia-Pacific
  • Figure 18: CAGRs for telecoms service revenue by country, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2013-2019
  • Figure 19: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Latin America, 2009-2019
  • Figure 20: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Latin America
  • Figure 21: CAGRs for telecoms service revenue by country, Latin America, 2013-2019
  • Figure 22: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Middle East and North Africa, 2009-2019
  • Figure 23: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Middle East and North Africa
  • Figure 24: CAGRs for telecoms service revenue by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2013-2019
  • Figure 25: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, North America, 2009-2019
  • Figure 26: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, North America
  • Figure 27: Telecoms service revenue by country, North America, 2009-2019
  • Figure 28: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2009-2019
  • Figure 29: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Sub-Saharan Africa
  • Figure 30: CAGRs for telecoms service revenue by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013-2019
  • Figure 31: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Western Europe, 2009-2019
  • Figure 32: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Western Europe
  • Figure 33: CAGRs for telecoms service revenue by country, Western Europe, 2013-2019
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