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市場調查報告書

西歐的通訊市場預測:中間報告 (16個國家) 2016-2021年

Western Europe Telecoms Market: Interim Forecast Update (16 Countries) 2016-2021

出版商 Analysys Mason 商品編碼 309461
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 22 Slides
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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西歐的通訊市場預測:中間報告 (16個國家) 2016-2021年 Western Europe Telecoms Market: Interim Forecast Update (16 Countries) 2016-2021
出版日期: 2017年02月09日 內容資訊: 英文 22 Slides
簡介

本報告提供西歐整體及主要16個國家的通訊市場相關調查,提供多達345種行動及固定通訊相關KPI的5年預測,可證明預測的主要促進要素·前提條件的說明與對固定·手機業者的影響爭議,再提供上次預測後的變更點說明等資訊。

調查內容

  • 對象地區
    • 西歐
  • 觀察對象國家
    • 奧地利
    • 比利時
    • 丹麥
    • 芬蘭
    • 法國
    • 德國
    • 英國
    • 愛爾蘭
    • 義大利
    • 荷蘭
    • 挪威
    • 葡萄牙
    • 西班牙
    • 瑞典
    • 瑞士
    • 英國
  • 連線數
    • 行動
      • 終端·行動寬頻·IoT
      • 預付·契約
      • 2G·3G·4G·5G
      • 智慧型手機·非智慧型手機
    • 固定
      • 語音·寬頻·網路電視·撥接上網·BNS
      • 窄頻語音·VoBB
      • DSL·FTTH/B·電纜·BFWA·其他
    • 固定·行動語音流量
      • 發信時間,MoU
  • 收益
    • 行動
      • 服務·零售
      • 預付·契約為基礎的
      • 終端·行動寬頻·IoT
      • 終端語音·通訊·資料
    • 固定
      • 服務·零售
      • 語音·寬頻·網路電視·撥接上網·BNS
      • DSL·FTTH/B·電纜·BFWA·其他等
    • 行動ARPU
      • SIM·終端
      • 預付·契約
      • 終端語音·資料

目錄

  • 摘要整理
  • 西歐的通訊總收益在2016-2021年將持續減少,但步調預計將相當緩慢
  • 智慧型手機·4G/5G:智慧型手機預計將佔終端的93%,4G/5G的普及率在2021年之前將達到84%
  • 固定服務:NGA連線數預計將佔寬頻線路整體73%,VDSL成為2021年的主要連線技術
  • 上次預測後主要地區的變化:FBB收益促進NGA服務的普及,預測將比預計增加更快
  • 預測的修正:整體通訊零售收益的減少將比固定寬頻·網路電視的普及更加緩慢
  • 各國預測
  • 法國:多合一服務的需求擴大促進投資人對NGA網路更進一步的投資
  • 德國:過去資料的修正預測調整的主要理由
  • 義大利:固定·行動語音收益由於被OTT取代·吸引人的語音折扣而急速減少
  • 西班牙:由於光纖ARPU的緩慢減少·高網路電視支出,固定寬頻收益的成長將比預測來得更快
  • 英國:業務收益雖然大部分繼續持平,但技術發展將比預測更快

關於作者

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目錄

"Telecoms retail revenue decline in Western Europe will be slower than in previous years, falling at a CAGR of -0.5% between 2016 and 2021."

Slower revenue decline in Western Europe is a result of increasing take-up of 4G technology-based services and next-generation access (NGA) fixed broadband services. Fast, reliable and generating more revenue, fixed broadband (FBB) connections and mobile data services will help to offset declining traditional voice revenue and become key revenue contributors by 2021.

This report and data annex provide:

  • a full update of our 5-year forecast of 345 mobile and fixed key performance indicators (KPIs) for Western Europe as a whole and for 16 individual countries
  • an explanation of the key drivers and assumptions that underpin the forecasts, along with discussion of the implications for fixed and mobile operators
  • an explanation of the significant changes to our previous forecasts for the region.

Coverage

Geographical coverage Key performance indicators
Regions modelled
  • Western Europe (WE)
Countries modelled individually
  • Austria
  • Belgium
  • Denmark
  • Finland
  • France
  • Germany
  • Greece
  • Ireland
  • Italy
  • Netherlands
  • Norway
  • Portugal
  • Spain
  • Sweden
  • Switzerland
  • UK
Connections
  • Mobile
    • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
    • Prepaid, contract
    • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
    • Smartphone, non-smartphone
  • Fixed
    • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
    • Narrowband voice, VoBB
    • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other
  • Fixed and mobile voice traffic
    • Outgoing minutes, MoU
Revenue
  • Mobile
    • Service, retail
    • Prepaid, contract
    • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
    • Handset voice, messaging, data
  • Fixed
    • Service, retail
    • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS
    • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other
  • Mobile ARPU
    • SIMs, handset
    • Prepaid, contract
    • Handset voice, data

Table of Contents

  • 5. Executive summary and regional forecasts
  • 6. Total telecoms revenue growth in Western Europe will continue to decline between 2016 and 2021 but at a slower pace
  • 7. Smartphones and 4G/5G: Smartphones will account for 93% of handsets and 4G/5G penetration will reach 84% by 2021
  • 8. Fixed services: NGA connections will account for 73% of the total broadband lines and VDSL will be the leading access technology in 2021
  • 9. Key regional changes since our previous forecast: FBB revenue will increase more quickly than expected driven by NGA service take-up
  • 10. Forecast revision: Overall telecoms retail revenue decline will be slower than expected because of fixed broadband and IPTV revenue growth
  • 11. Individual country forecasts
  • 12. Finance: Increasing demand for multi-play services drive further investments in NGA networks
  • 13. Germany: Historical data revisions are the main reason behind forecast adjustments
  • 14. Italy: Fixed and mobile voice revenue will decline faster due to OTT substitution and generous voice allowances
  • 15. Spain: We expect faster fixed broadband revenue growth due to slower decline in fibre ARPU and higher IPTV spending
  • 16. UK: Service revenue will remain largely flat, but technological evolution will continue more quickly than expected
  • 17. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 18. About the authors
  • 19. About Analysys Mason

List of Figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Western Europe, 2011-2021
  • Figure 2: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and 4G/5G's share of total connections (excluding IoT), Western Europe, 2015 and 2021
  • Figure 3: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, Western Europe, 2011-2021
  • Figure 4: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast for Western Europe
  • Figure 5: Telecoms retail revenue forecast by service type and total service revenue, previous and new forecasts, Western Europe, 2016 and 2021
  • Figure 6: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Western Europe, 2015 and 2021
  • Figure 7: Connections by type, and growth rates, Western Europe, 2015 and 2021
  • Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, France, 2011-2021
  • Figure 9: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, France
  • Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Germany, 2011-2021
  • Figure 11: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Germany
  • Figure 12: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Italy, 2011-2021
  • Figure 13: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Italy
  • Figure 14: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Spain, 2011-2021
  • Figure 15: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Spain
  • Figure 16: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, UK, 2011-2021
  • Figure 17: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, UK
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