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市場調查報告書

西歐通訊市場:中期預測報告更新版2015-2020年

Western Europe Telecoms Market: Interim Forecast Update 2015-2020

出版商 Analysys Mason 商品編碼 309461
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 22 Slides
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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西歐通訊市場:中期預測報告更新版2015-2020年 Western Europe Telecoms Market: Interim Forecast Update 2015-2020
出版日期: 2016年01月20日 內容資訊: 英文 22 Slides
簡介

2019年通訊市場由於LTE智慧型手機的影響和對通訊業者而言的收益化機會等,行動終端資料部門預測將寫下最大的成長率記錄。LTE可用服務的擴大及多頻譜4G頻寬的利用等促進了資料流量。但通訊服務收益預測在2013年到2019年間8國會全面下滑,尤其是經濟性展望不樂觀的義大利及葡萄牙、西班牙,此外固定、行動的寬頻搭售趨勢在法國、德國、荷蘭、西班牙應會日益顯著。英國市場則預測將展現最大的耐力。

本報告提供西歐整體及主要8個國家的通訊市場相關調查,提供您行動及固定通訊相關,超過200的KPI相關資料,及5年的成長預測。

調查內容

  • 連線數
    • 行動
      • 終端·行動寬頻·M2M
      • 預付·月租型
      • 2G、3G、4G
      • 智慧手機、非智慧手機
    • 固定
      • 語音·寬頻·網路電視·撥接上網
      • 窄頻聲音·VoBB
      • DSL·FTTH/B·電纜·BFWA·其他
  • 收益
    • 行動
      • 服務·零售
      • 預付·契約型
      • 終端·行動寬頻·M2M
      • 終端語音·通訊·資料
    • 固定
      • 服務·零售
      • 語音·寬頻·網路電視·撥接上網·BNS
      • DSL·FTTH/B·電纜·BFWA·其他等

摘要整理

  • 通訊業務收益由於價格競爭和OTT的影響,預測到2019年將會下跌
  • 預計到2019年前由於LTE智慧型手機和經營者的收益化機會等因素,行動終端資料將展現最高成長率
  • 預計LTE的引進將會加速
  • 上次預測的修正:LTE連線數·固定寬頻收益·行動寬頻普及率的重新預測
  • 重新預測:2019年的業務收益

各國預測

  • 法國:通訊業務收益的預測大體不變·順利成長的固定寬頻抵消語音的壓力
  • 德國:行動普及率的擴大超過預計、劇烈競爭阻礙了固定寬頻收益的成長
  • 義大利:2019年資訊服務收益的預測大體上不變,通訊業務的成長抵消了收益的減少
  • 西班牙:儘管LTE·固定寬頻的發展超過預期,2019年前通訊業者的收益仍將持續減少
  • 英國:急速朝LTE的引進前進,有助於行動ARPU的維持

關於作者

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目錄

"We have revised the forecast expectations for Western Europe up, based on positive revenue trends in the majority of the region in 1H 2015. However, in most countries. this continues to refer to a slower decline, rather than growth."

We have revised our expectations for fixed broadband revenue in Western Europe (WE) up because ARPU trends across the region in 1H 2015 have shown that consumer spending on broadband is increasing. After an optimistic 1H 2015, we also expect a more positive trend in all aspects of mobile revenue.

This report and accompanying data annex provide:

  • an interim update of our 5-year forecast (previously published in August 2015) of more than 100 mobile and fixed KPIs for WE as a whole and for 5 key countries
  • an explanation of the significant changes in this edition, compared with our previous forecasts.

Revisions to our previous forecasts occurred mainly for the following reasons:

  • market developments -- based on recent market events and latest reported operator and regulator data (2Q 2015)
  • changes to the competitive and regulatory environment
  • changes to the macroeconomic outlook and exchange rates used to derive revenue in constant EUR
  • changes to historical data because of newly available information.

COVERAGE

Geographical coverageMajor KPIs 

Regions modelled individually

  • France
  • Germany
  • Italy
  • Spain
  • UK

Connections
Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone

Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTH/B, cable

Revenue
Mobile

  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS
  • DSL, FTTH/B, cable

 

Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Roman Orvisky (Research Analyst) is a member of the regional markets research team in London, contributing to the Telecoms Market Matrix, European Core Forecasts, European Country Reports and Global Telecoms Forecasts programmes. Prior to joining Analysys Mason in November 2014, he worked in the Transaction Services department of the Royal Bank of Scotland in a customer experience internship role. During his studies, Roman focused on consumer behaviour in an online context, and has experience in churn modelling in the telecoms sector, social network analysis and browsing data analysis. Roman holds a Bachelor's degree in business from Durham University, and an MSc in marketing research from the Tilburg University School of Economics and Management.

Julia Martusewicz-Kulinska (Senior Analyst) is a member of the regional markets research team, contributing mainly to the European Core Forecasts, Telecoms Market Matrix and European Country Reports programmes. She has more than 14 years of research and telecoms industry regulations experience. Prior to joining Analysys Mason, she worked for the Polish national regulatory authority as the head of the Research Division, where she was responsible for telecoms market research, and as the leader of the Telecommunications Market Analysis Department, which was accountable for co-operation between the regulatory authority and the Information Society and Media DG of the European Commission.

William Hare (Senior Analyst) is the leader of Analysys Mason's Telecoms Market Matrix research programme, which tracks and compares telecoms metrics and market shares for all the major fixed and mobile operators in Europe. He also leads the European Country Reports programme, which provides insightful reports on 30 European telecoms markets. He is a key contributor to our European Core Forecasts and Global Telecoms Forecasts programmes, specialising in business and market modelling and data analysis. William joined Analysys Mason's Research practice in 2010 after 3 years as a consultant in our Consulting practice, working directly with clients in Asia, Africa and Europe. He read mathematics at the University of Cambridge.

Table of Contents

  • 4.Executive summary and regional forecasts
  • 5.Telecoms retail revenue in Western Europe will continue to decline, but at a slower pace than previously expected
  • 6.Growth in handset data and fixed broadband revenue will be outpaced by a decline in fixed and mobile voice services
  • 7.Smartphones and LTE: 78% of handsets in Western Europe will be LTE smartphones by 2020
  • 8.Key regional changes since our previous forecast
  • 9.Forecast revision: Revenue will continue to decline, despite a more positive outlook in fixed broadband and handset data services
  • 10.Individual country forecasts
  • 11.France: Telecoms service revenue is almost unchanged as higher data revenue will be offset by faster mobile voice revenue decline
  • 12.Germany: Mobile revenue will return to growth as convergence discounts disappear and operators monetise 4G usage
  • 13.Italy: Telecoms service revenue will decline slower thanks to faster handset data and fixed broadband revenue growth
  • 14.Spain: There will be faster revenue stabilisation due to LTE, driven by growth in data usage and increasing fixed broadband revenue
  • 15.United Kingdom: Total service revenue will decline more slowly than expected, boosted by faster growth in fixed broadband
  • 16.About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 17.About the authors
  • 18.About Analysys Mason
  • Research from Analysys Mason
  • Consulting from Analysys Mason
  • List of figures
  • Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Western Europe, 2010-2020
  • Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, Western Europe, 2014-2020
  • Figure 3: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), Western Europe, 2014 and 2020
  • Figure 4: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast for Western Europe
  • Figure 5: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue, previous and new forecasts, Western Europe, 2014 and 2020
  • Figure 6: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Western Europe, 2014-2020
  • Figure 7: Connections by type, and growth rates, Western Europe, 2014-2020
  • Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, France, 2010-2020
  • Figure 9: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, France
  • Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Germany, 2010-2020
  • Figure 11: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Germany
  • Figure 12: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Italy, 2010-2020
  • Figure 13: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Italy
  • Figure 14: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Spain, 2010-2020
  • Figure 15: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Spain
  • Figure 16: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, UK, 2010-2020
  • Figure 17: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, UK
  • 4.Executive summary and regional forecasts
  • 5.Telecoms retail revenue in Western Europe will continue to decline, but at a slower pace than previously expected
  • 6.Growth in handset data and fixed broadband revenue will be outpaced by a decline in fixed and mobile voice services
  • 7.Smartphones and LTE: 78% of handsets in Western Europe will be LTE smartphones by 2020
  • 8.Key regional changes since our previous forecast
  • 9.Forecast revision: Revenue will continue to decline, despite a more positive outlook in fixed broadband and handset data services
  • 10.Individual country forecasts
  • 11.France: Telecoms service revenue is almost unchanged as higher data revenue will be offset by faster mobile voice revenue decline
  • 12.Germany: Mobile revenue will return to growth as convergence discounts disappear and operators monetise 4G usage
  • 13.Italy: Telecoms service revenue will decline slower thanks to faster handset data and fixed broadband revenue growth
  • 14.Spain: There will be faster revenue stabilisation due to LTE, driven by growth in data usage and increasing fixed broadband revenue
  • 15.United Kingdom: Total service revenue will decline more slowly than expected, boosted by faster growth in fixed broadband
  • 16.About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 17.About the authors
  • 18.About Analysys Mason
  • Research from Analysys Mason
  • Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Western Europe, 2010-2020
  • Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, Western Europe, 2014-2020
  • Figure 3: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), Western Europe, 2014 and 2020
  • Figure 4: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast for Western Europe
  • Figure 5: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue, previous and new forecasts, Western Europe, 2014 and 2020
  • Figure 6: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Western Europe, 2014-2020
  • Figure 7: Connections by type, and growth rates, Western Europe, 2014-2020
  • Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, France, 2010-2020
  • Figure 9: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, France
  • Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Germany, 2010-2020
  • Figure 11: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Germany
  • Figure 12: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Italy, 2010-2020
  • Figure 13: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Italy
  • Figure 14: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Spain, 2010-2020
  • Figure 15: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Spain
  • Figure 16: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, UK, 2010-2020
  • Figure 17: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, UK
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