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市場調查報告書

先進的亞太地區的通訊市場:2017年∼2022年的趨勢與預測

Developed Asia-Pacific Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022 based on 2Q 2017 data

出版商 Analysys Mason 商品編碼 298561
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 44 slides
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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先進的亞太地區的通訊市場:2017年∼2022年的趨勢與預測 Developed Asia-Pacific Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022 based on 2Q 2017 data
出版日期: 2018年01月26日 內容資訊: 英文 44 slides
簡介

本報告提供先進的亞太地區 (DVAP) 地區的通訊市場相關調查分析,提供5年預測,加上趨勢,促進因素,預測的前提條件,業者策略概要,各國專題等系統性資訊。

摘要整理

地區的預測和國家整體比較

  • 市場背景:DVAP的通訊服務收入達到1870億美元(佔該地區GDP的2.1%)。日本貢獻了一半以上
  • 主要的M&A,市場進入
  • DVAP的各市場主要促進因素
  • 市場概述:2022年DVAP的通訊服務總收入將穩定在190億美元左右
  • 行動:行動數據流量將保持快速增長,行動連接數和ARPU將停滯不前
  • 行動:香港將繼續領先行動滲透率,而日本將繼續擁有DVAP中最高的行動ARPU
  • 行動:DVAP是一個先進的行動市場,運營商不斷推動技術進步,希望能夠輕鬆移植到OTT
  • 固定:2022年FTTP / B將占固定寬頻連接的64.5%
  • 固定:香港,韓國,新加坡和新西蘭將成為固定寬頻家庭普及率的領先國家
  • 固定:DVAP地區將繼續在全球擁有最高的固定寬頻普及率
  • 企業服務:DVAP的業務收入將從5.2%(2012 - 2016年)的複合年增長率下降至0.7%(2016 - 2022年)
  • 物聯網:到2022年,DVAP的物聯網價值鏈總收入將增長到接近300億美元

各國預測

  • 澳大利亞:行動數據和固定寬頻服務將成為預測期間兩大收入貢獻者
  • 澳大利亞:VDSL將佔固定寬頻總數的最大份額
  • 澳大利亞:固定寬頻連接
  • 澳大利亞:在預測期內,行動和固定市場的競爭將會上升
  • 澳大利亞:預測的變更
  • 香港:由於市場高度飽和,預測期間電訊業務收入將下降
  • 香港:行動和固定市場競爭加劇將導致ARPU值下滑
  • 香港:運營商正在推出無限制的行動計劃,競爭水平將會提高
  • 香港:預測的變更
  • 日本:行動物聯網的連接和收入將迅速增長
  • 日本:固定寬頻和行動ARPU將保持穩定,固定語音ARPU將在預測期間減半
  • 日本:運營商面臨OTT服務提供商的威脅
  • 日本:預測的變更
  • 紐西蘭:預測期間,電信總收入將以1.9%的複合年增長率複合增長
  • 紐西蘭:客戶將從DSL遷移。到2022年,FTTP / B和BFWA將佔FBB總數的93%
  • 紐西蘭:語音網路的升級和光纖的投資
  • 新加坡:電信市場成熟,預測期內將保持穩定
  • 新加坡:到2022年,大多數固定連接將在FTTH上運行。行動數據使用量將穩步增長
  • 新加坡:第四個MNO的進入將加劇競爭
  • 新加坡:預測的變更
  • 韓國:行動手機收入將繼續成為全球電信收入的最大貢獻者
  • 韓國:到2022年,行動數據流量預計將超過每個連接10GB
  • 韓國:運營商正在關注技術發展和擁抱5G
  • 南韓:預測的變更
  • 台灣:2017-2022年手機收入增長有限,固定寬頻收入將增長2.3%
  • 台灣:台灣每月的行動數據流量是全球最高的,到2022年將達到18GB
  • 台灣:廣泛採用無限的行動數據計劃將導致行動和固定業務的收入增長有限
  • 台灣:預測的變更

預測手法

關於著者和Analysys Mason

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目錄

"Total telecoms retail revenue in developed Asia-Pacific will grow at a CAGR of less than 1% during the forecast period."

Mobile infrastructure within the telecoms markets in developed Asia-Pacific (DVAP) is advanced, and the region has a high rate of adoption of mobile services and applications. IoT retail revenue will grow quickly during the forecast period from a small base of over USD2 billion in 2022, overtaking mobile messaging retail revenue in 2021. The region will also continue to have the highest fixed broadband penetration worldwide.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • a 5-year forecast of 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for the DVAP region as a whole and seven key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.
Geographical coverageKey performance indicators

Region modelled

  • Developed Asia-Pacific (DVAP)

Countries modelled individually

  • Australia
  • Hong Kong
  • Japan
  • New Zealand
  • Singapore
  • South Korea
  • Taiwan

Connections

Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband,1 IoT2
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone

Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, 5G, other

Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

Revenue

Mobile

  • Service,3 retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband,1 IoT2
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

  • Service,3 retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, business services
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data
  • 1 Includes USB modem, and mid- and large-screen, but not handset-based data.
  • 2 IoT connections and revenue figures include mobile services only.
  • 3 Service revenue is the sum of retail and wholesale revenue.

About the authors:

Sherrie Huang (Research Programme Head, Asia-Pacific) is the lead analyst for our Asia-Pacific research programme and is based in our Singapore office. Her research covers the entire Asia-Pacific region, and includes market data and forecasts for 17 key markets,as well as thematic reports covering key telecoms industry trends including IoT/M2M, video and multi-play, and enterprise services. Sherriehas extensive expertise on the telecoms industry from various angles, including strategy, market sizing and forecast, end-user research, cost modelling and regulatory issues. She previously worked at IDC, Ovum and ZTE in various Asia-Pacific countries.

Cai Shiyu (Research Analyst) contributes to Analysys Mason's Asia-Pacific research programme, and is based in our Singapore office. He had been involved in data modelling process as well as analysis of telecoms market trends in developed and emerging Asia-Pacific. Before joining Analysys Mason, he worked as an intern with business development division of SAP, and conducted qualitative and quantitative research on cloud computing market. Shiyu holds a Bachelor's degree in finance and operations management at NUS Business School, Singapore.

Table of Contents

  • 9.Executive summary
  • 10.Telecoms retail revenue will grow slowly in developed Asia-Pacific until the end of forecast period
  • 11.GDP in all countries in DVAP will grow slightly; South Korea and New Zealand will lead revenue growth, thanks to service migration
  • 12.Geographical coverage: By 2022, all DVAP countries will have a high share of 4G/5G and NGA; Australia and Japan will both reach 100%
  • 13.Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
  • 14.Key recommendations for telecoms operators
  • 15.Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
  • 16.Market context: Telecoms service revenue in DVAP reached USD187 billion (2.1% of the region's total GDP); Japan contributed more than half
  • 17.Key mergers, acquisitions and market entries
  • 18.Key drivers at a glance for each developed Asia-Pacific market
  • 19.Market overview: Total telecoms service revenue in DVAP will stabilise at around USD190 billion in 2022
  • 20.Mobile: Mobile data traffic will maintain rapid growth, while the number of mobile connections and ARPU will stagnate
  • 21.Mobile: Hong Kong will continue to lead in terms of mobile penetration, while Japan will continue to have the highest mobile ARPU in DVAP
  • 22.Mobile: DVAP is an advanced mobile market and operators continue to drive advances in technology, hoping to ease migration to OTT
  • 23.Fixed: FTTP/B will account for 64.5% of fixed broadband connections in 2022
  • 24.Fixed: Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore and New Zealand will be the leading countries in terms of fixed broadband household penetration
  • 25.Fixed: The DVAP region will continue to have the highest fixed broadband penetration worldwide
  • 26.Business services: Business revenue in DVAP will slow from a CAGR of 5.2% (2012-2016) to 0.7% (2016-2022)
  • 27.IoT: Total revenue from the IoT value chain in DVAP will grow to close to USD30 billion by 2022
  • 28.Individual country forecasts
  • 29.Australia: Mobile data and fixed broadband services will be the two largest revenue contributors during the forecast period
  • 30.Australia: VDSL will command the largest share of total fixed broadband connections
  • 31.Australia: Competition in both the mobile and fixed markets will rise during the forecast period
  • 32.Australia: Forecast changes
  • 33.Hong Kong: Telecoms revenue will decline during the forecast period because the market is highly saturated
  • 34.Hong Kong: Intensifying competition in both mobile and fixed market will result in ARPU decline
  • 35.Hong Kong: Operators are launching unlimited mobile plans and the level of competition will increase
  • 36.Hong Kong: Forecast changes
  • 37.Japan: Mobile IoT connections and revenue will grow rapidly albeit from a small base
  • 38.Japan: Fixed broadband and mobile ARPU will remain stable, while fixed voice ARPU will halve during the forecast period
  • 39.Japan: Operators are facing threats from OTT service providers
  • 40.Japan: Forecast changes
  • 41.New Zealand: Total telecoms revenue will enjoy a CAGR of 1.9% during the forecast period
  • 42.New Zealand: Customers will migrate off DSL. FTTP/B and BFWA will account for 93% of total FBB connections by 2022
  • 43.New Zealand: Spark NZ's voice network upgrades and investment in fibre and BFWA will migrate customers away from copper
  • 44.Singapore: The telecoms market is mature and will be stable during the forecast period
  • 45.Singapore: Most fixed connections will be on FTTH by 2022; mobile data usage will increase steadily
  • 46.Singapore: The entry of the fourth MNO will intensify competition
  • 47.Singapore: Forecast changes
  • 48.South Korea: Mobile handset revenue will continue to be the largest contributor to total telecoms revenue
  • 49.South Korea: Mobile data usage is expected to surpass 10GB per connection by 2022
  • 50.South Korea: Operators are focusing on technology developments and embracing 5G
  • 51.South Korea: Forecast changes
  • 52.Taiwan: Mobile handset revenue will show limited growth during 2017-2022; fixed broadband revenue will grow at a CARG of 2.3%
  • 53.Taiwan: Mobile data traffic per month in Taiwan is the highest worldwide, and will reach 18GB by 2022
  • 54.Taiwan: Wide adoption of unlimited mobile data plans will lead to limited revenue growth for both mobile and fixed services
  • 55.Taiwan: Forecast changes
  • 56.Methodology
  • 57.Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
  • 58.Examples of forecast input drivers
  • 59.Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
  • 60.Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
  • 61.About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 62.About the authors
  • 63.Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
  • 64.Research from Analysys Mason
  • 65.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue, developed Asia-Pacific, 2012-2022
  • Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP growth by country, developed Asia-Pacific, 2016-2022
  • Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and next-generation access (NGA) share of fixed broadband connections by country, developed Asia-Pacific, 2016 and 2022
  • Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for developed Asia-Pacific
  • Figure 5: Metrics for the seven countries modelled individually in developed Asia-Pacific, 2016
  • Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in developed Asia-Pacific
  • Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2016) and future trajectory (2017-2022), by country, developed Asia-Pacific
  • Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, developed Asia-Pacific (USD billion), 2012-2022
  • Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, developed Asia-Pacific (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, developed Asia-Pacific, 2012-2022
  • Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, developed Asia-Pacific (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, developed Asia-Pacific (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, developed Asia-Pacific (USD per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), developed Asia-Pacific, 2012-2022
  • Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, developed Asia-Pacific (MB per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 16: Mobile penetration by country, developed Asia-Pacific, 2012-2022
  • Figure 17: Mobile ARPU by country, developed Asia-Pacific, 2012-2022
  • Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, developed Asia-Pacific (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, developed Asia-Pacific (USD billion), 2012-2022
  • Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, developed Asia-Pacific, 2012-2022
  • Figure 21: Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, developed Asia-Pacific (GB per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 22: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, developed Asia-Pacific, 2012-2022
  • Figure 23: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, developed Asia-Pacific, 2012-2022
  • Figure 24: Total market revenue from business services, developed Asia-Pacific, 2012-2022
  • Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, developed Asia-Pacific, 2013-2022
  • Figure 26: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Australia (AUD billion), 2012-2022
  • Figure 27: Mobile connections by type, Australia (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 28: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Australia, 2012-2022
  • Figure 29: Fixed connections by type, Australia (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 30: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Australia, 2012-2022
  • Figure 31: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Australia (AUD per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 32: Mobile data traffic per connection, Australia (MB per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 33: Broadband connections by technology, Australia (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 34: Total telecoms service revenue -current and previous forecasts, Australia, 2012-2022
  • Figure 35: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Hong Kong (HKD billion), 2012-2022
  • Figure 36: Mobile connections by type, Hong Kong (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 37: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Hong Kong, 2012-2022
  • Figure 38: Fixed connections by type, Hong Kong (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 39: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Hong Kong, 2012-2022
  • Figure 40: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Hong Kong (HKD per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 41: Mobile data traffic per connection, Hong Kong (MB per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 42: Broadband connections by technology, Hong Kong (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 43: Total telecoms service revenue -current and previous forecasts, Hong Kong, 2012-2022
  • Figure 44: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Japan (JPY trillion), 2012-2022
  • Figure 45: Mobile connections by type, Japan (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 46: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Japan, 2012-2022
  • Figure 47: Fixed connections by type, Japan (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 48: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Japan, 2012-2022
  • Figure 49: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Japan (JPY per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 50: Mobile data traffic per connection, Japan (MB per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 51: Broadband connections by technology, Japan (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 52: Total telecoms service revenue -current and previous forecasts, Japan, 2012-2022
  • Figure 53: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, New Zealand (NZD billion), 2012-2022
  • Figure 54: Mobile connections by type, New Zealand (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 55: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, New Zealand, 2012-2022
  • Figure 56: Fixed connections by type, New Zealand (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 57: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, New Zealand, 2012-2022
  • Figure 58: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, New Zealand (New ZealandD per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 59: Mobile data traffic per connection, New Zealand (MB per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 60: Broadband connections by technology, New Zealand (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 61: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Singapore (SGD billion), 2012-2022
  • Figure 62: Mobile connections by type, Singapore (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 63: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Singapore, 2012-2022
  • Figure 64: Fixed connections by type, Singapore (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 65: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Singapore, 2012-2022
  • Figure 66: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Singapore (SGD per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 67: Mobile data traffic per connection, Singapore (MB per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 68: Broadband connections by technology, Singapore (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 69: Total telecoms service revenue -current and previous forecasts, Singapore, 2012-2022
  • Figure 70: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, South Korea (KRW trillion), 2012-2022
  • Figure 71: Mobile connections by type, South Korea (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 72: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, South Korea, 2012-2022
  • Figure 73: Fixed connections by type, South Korea (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 74: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, South Korea, 2012-2022
  • Figure 75: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, South Korea (KRW per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 76: Mobile data traffic per connection, South Korea (MB per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 77: Broadband connections by technology, South Korea (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 78: Total telecoms service revenue -current and previous forecasts, South Korea, 2012-2022
  • Figure 79: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Taiwan (TWD billion), 2012-2022
  • Figure 80: Mobile connections by type, Taiwan (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 81: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Taiwan, 2012-2022
  • Figure 82: Fixed connections by type, Taiwan (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 83: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Taiwan, 2012-
  • Figure 84: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Taiwan (TWD per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 85: Mobile data traffic per connection, Taiwan (MB per month), 2012-
  • Figure 86: Broadband connections by technology, Taiwan (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 87: Total telecoms service revenue -current and previous forecasts, Taiwan, 2012-2022
  • Figure 88a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
  • Figure 88b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
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