Cover Image
市場調查報告書

全球通訊市場:趨勢與預測

Global Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2015-2020

出版商 Analysys Mason 商品編碼 265540
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 55 slides
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
價格
Back to Top
全球通訊市場:趨勢與預測 Global Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2015-2020
出版日期: 2015年11月09日 內容資訊: 英文 55 slides
簡介

全球通訊的零售收益,預計主要由於行動終端資料的收益成長,而持續擴大。

本報告提供全球通訊市場相關調查分析、全球/主要8個地區的100個以上的行動、固定的KPI (主要業績評估指標) 相關5年預測、各地區的行動、固定的各種服務的趨勢&推動因素&預測的前提條件、業者策略概要、地區專題、業者的建議等系統性資訊。

目錄

  • 摘要整理
  • 全球通訊服務的收益擴大到1兆6,680億美元,由4G行動服務和下一代的固定寬頻推動
  • 行動終端資料持續促進收益,牽引4G網路可用性的增加
  • 發展途中地區收益成長高,可是北美持續對零售收益貢獻最
  • 行動、固定市場上主要趨勢,推動因素,前提條件
  • 對通訊業者的主要建議
  • 全球預測與地區間共同的比較
  • 地區的涵蓋範圍:在先進亞太地區 (DVAP) 、北美、西歐4G普及率超過70%,家庭寬頻普及率超過85%
  • 市場背景:關於取用服務,北美、西歐、DVAP由每人GDP高,在新興地區由負擔能力與利用可能性所促進
  • 收益和ARPU:行動終端資料和固定寬頻服務,佔業務收益整體44%
  • 行動普及率:新興亞太地區 (EMAP) 、DVAP,撒哈拉以南非洲 (SSA) ,促進全球行動SIM普及率到108%
  • 行動連線:連接中4G的佔有率超越3G的佔有率,由先進地區的廣泛網路推出所牽引
  • 智慧型手機和LTE:連接中LTE的佔有率,在北美92%,DVAP84%,SSA5%較為落後
  • 行動ARPU:成熟地區的競爭加劇,OTT服務和整合配套服務壓低ARPU
  • 固定服務:FTTH/B連接增加到4億2,500萬,固定寬頻連接佔整體44%
  • 固定寬頻:家庭普及率增加到48%,每人GDP的成長與網路部署
  • 各地區的主要推動因素概要
  • 各地區的預測
  • 中歐、東歐 (CEE) :通訊的收益減少
  • CEE的行動:行動的收益下降到240萬美元
  • CEE的固定:寬頻、網路電視的收益以年複合成長率1.9%成長
  • DVAP:零售整體收益年以複合成長率1%成長
  • DVAP的行動:智慧型手機的普及率和4G的可用性增加,終端資料的ARPU到23美元促進
  • DVAP的固定:寬頻、網路電視、商務網路服務的收益增加
  • EMAP:業務收益以年複合成長率3.1%增加
  • EMAP的行動:由於3G、4G普及率增加,行動終端資料的收益以年複合成長率11.8%成長
  • EMAP的固定:固定寬頻、網路電視的收益以年複合成長率7%成長
  • 南美 (LATAM) :行動終端資料、固定寬頻服務的收益擴大到1,400億美元
  • LATAM的行動:加速採用4G服務
  • LATAM的固定:固定寬頻普及率持續增加
  • 中東、北非 (MENA) :零售收益全體穩定成長到850億美元
  • MENA的行動:行動終端資料的收益以年複合成長率8.7%成長
  • MENA的固定:寬頻、網路電視的收益以年複合成長率4.9%成長
  • 北美:通訊服務整體收益年複合成長率為負0.2%,頂峰為2015年∼2016年
  • 北美的行動:4G技術在行動市場上具優勢
  • 北美的固定:光纖寬頻的普及率增加
  • SSA:業務收益的總額達到600億美元
  • SSA的行動:收益與普及率成長
  • SSA的行動:語音、網際網路服務的需求增加
  • 西歐:通訊的收益持續鈍化
  • 西歐的行動:ARPU減少
  • 西歐的固定:服務品質的壓力
  • 關於著者和Analysys Mason
  • 關於作者
  • 關於Analysys Mason

圖表

本網頁內容可能與最新版本有所差異。詳細情況請與我們聯繫。

目錄

"Revenue growth will be driven primarily by increasing mobile service take-up in most emerging markets, and increasing spend on handset data and high-end fixed broadband (fibre, IPTV) services in developed regions."

Telecoms retail revenue worldwide will continue to grow during the forecast period, driven primarily by mobile handset data revenue growth. Attractive bundled offers, including converged next-generation access (NGA) and 4G high-end broadband services with unlimited data plans, will contribute to revenue growth in developed regions.

This report and data annex provide:

  • a 5-year forecast of more than 100 mobile and fixed KPIs, worldwide and for 8 regions
  • an analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service in each region, and a worldwide summary
  • an overview of operator strategies and region-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-region comparison
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

COVERAGE

Geographical coverageMajor KPIs 

Regions modelled

  • Central and Eastern Europe
  • Developed Asia-Pacific
  • Emerging Asia-Pacific
  • Latin America
  • Middle East and North Africa
  • North America
  • Sub-Saharan Africa
  • Western Europe

Connections
Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone

Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTH/B, cable, BFWA, other

Revenue
Mobile

  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS
  • DSL, FTTH/B, cable, BFWA, other

 

Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Julia Martusewicz-Kulinska (Senior Analyst) is a member of the regional markets research team, contributing mainly to the European Core Forecasts, Telecoms Market Matrix and European Country Reports programmes. She has more than 14 years of research and telecoms industry regulations experience. Prior to joining Analysys Mason, she worked for the Polish national regulatory authority as the head of the Research Division, where she was responsible for telecoms market research, and as the leader of the Telecommunications Market Analysis Department, which was accountable for co-operation between the regulatory authority and the Information Society and Media DG of the European Commission.

William Hare (Senior Analyst) is the leader of Analysys Mason's Telecoms Market Matrix research programme, which tracks and compares telecoms metrics and market shares for all the major fixed and mobile operators in Europe. He also leads the European Country Reports programme, which provides insightful reports on 30 European telecoms markets. He is a key contributor to our European Core Forecasts and Global Telecoms Forecasts programmes, specialising in business and market modelling and data analysis. William joined Analysys Mason's Research practice in 2010 after 3 years as a consultant in our Consulting practice, working directly with clients in Asia, Africa and Europe. He read mathematics at the University of Cambridge.

Table of Contents

  • 8. Executive summary
  • 9. Worldwide telecoms service revenue will increase to USD1668 billion, driven by 4G mobile services and next-generation fixed broadband
  • 10. Mobile handset data will continue to boost revenue, driven by the increasing availability of 4G networks
  • 11. Developing regions will have highest revenue growth, but NA will continue to be largest retail revenue contributor worldwide by 2020
  • 12. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
  • 13. Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators
  • 14. Global forecasts and cross-regional comparison
  • 15. Geographical coverage: 4G penetration will exceed 70% and household broadband penetration will surpass 85% in DVAP, NA and WE by 2020
  • 16. Market context: Service take-up is driven by high GDP per capita in NA, WE and DVAP, and by affordability and accessibility in emerging regions
  • 17. Revenue and ARPU: Mobile handset data and fixed broadband services will account for 44% of total service revenue in 2020
  • 18. Mobile penetration: EMAP, DVAP and SSA will drive mobile SIM penetration worldwide to 108% by 2020, up from 92% in 2014
  • 19. Mobile connections: 4G's share of connections will exceed 3G's share by 2020, driven by extensive network roll-out in developed regions
  • 20. Smartphones and LTE: LTE's share of connections will be the highest in NA (92%) and DVAP (84%), and SSA will lag behind significantly (5%)
  • 21. Mobile ARPU: Intense competition in mature regions, OTT services and converged bundle services will have a downward pressure on ARPU
  • 22. Fixed services: FTTH/B connections will increase to 425 million, accounting for 44% of total fixed broadband connections in 2020
  • 23. Fixed broadband: Household penetration will increase from 39% to 48% because of GDP per capita growth and network roll-out
  • 24. Key drivers at a glance for each region
  • 25. Individual regional forecasts
  • 26. CEE: Telecoms revenue will decline in the forecast period due to competitive pressure on mobile and fixed voice revenue
  • 27. CEE-mobile: Mobile revenue will drop to USD 2.4 million as handset data revenue will not fully offset voice and SMS losses
  • 28. CEE- fixed: Broadband and IPTV revenue will grow at a CAGR of 1.9% as a result of increasing service take-up
  • 29. DVAP: Total retail revenue will grow at a 1% CAGR, driven by mobile handset data usage and the wide availability of fibre
  • 30. DVAP-mobile: Increasing smartphone penetration and high 4G availability will drive handset data ARPU up to USD23 in 2020
  • 31. DVAP- fixed: The increase of broadband, IPTV and business network services revenue will offset fixed voice revenue losses
  • 32. EMAP: Service revenue will increase at a CAGR of 3.1% by 2020 driven by mobile handset data and broadband take-up
  • 33. EMAP-mobile: Increasing 3G and 4G penetration contributes to mobile handset data revenue growth at a CAGR of 11.8%
  • 34. EMAP- fixed: Fixed broadband and IPTV revenue growth at a CAGR of 7% will be driven by increasing service take-up
  • 35. LATAM: Mobile handset data and fixed broadband services will stimulate steady revenue growth to USD140 billion by 2020
  • 36. LATAM-mobile: 4G service take-up will accelerate and boost smartphone penetration and handset revenue growth
  • 37. LATAM- fixed: Fixed broadband penetration will continue to grow, driven by an increase in cable and DSL connections
  • 38. MENA: Total retail revenue will grow at a stable pace to USD85 billion, of which mobile services will account for 69%
  • 39. MENA-mobile: Mobile handset data revenue will grow by USD5.6 billion between 2014 and 2020, a CAGR of 8.7%
  • 40. MENA- fixed: Broadband and IPTV revenue will grow at a 4.9% CAGR to USD11.3 billion, driven by roll-out plans in GCC countries
  • 41. NA: Total telecoms service revenue will decline slowly at a CAGR of -0.2%, after a USD437 billion peak in 2015-2016
  • 42. NA-mobile: 4G technology will dominate mobile market with 92% of 4G SIMs and will drive up handset data revenue
  • 43. NA- fixed: Fibre broadband penetration will grow because the services will outdo cable in terms of quality and speed
  • 44. SSA: Total service revenue will reach USD60 billion in 2020, driven by growth opportunities in mobile handset data
  • 45. SSA-mobile: Revenue and penetration growth will be driven by demand for voice and Internet services
  • 46. SSA-mobile: Revenue and penetration growth will be driven by demand for voice and Internet services
  • 47. WE: Telecoms revenue will continue to decline slowly because of market maturity, price competition and OTT services
  • 48. WE-mobile: ARPU will decline, offset in part by mobile data service revenue and consolidations
  • 49. WE- fixed: Pressure on the quality of service will drive the market competition in fixed broadband
  • 50. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 51. About the authors
  • 52. About Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), worldwide, 2010-2020
  • Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, worldwide, 2014-2020
  • Figure 3: CAGRs for fixed and mobile retail revenue (2014-2020) and market size by total retail revenue (2020), by region, worldwide
  • Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions, worldwide
  • Figure 5: Mobile connections by technology generation and fixed broadband household penetration, by region, worldwide, 2020
  • Figure 6: Metrics for the eight regions modelled individually, 2014
  • Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, worldwide, 2010-2020
  • Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, worldwide, 2014-2020
  • Figure 9: Connections by type, and growth rates, worldwide, 2014-2020
  • Figure 10: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), worldwide, 2010-2020
  • Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G and 4G's share of connections, worldwide, 2010-2020
  • Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), worldwide, 2014 and 2020
  • Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by region and worldwide, 2010-2020
  • Figure 14: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, worldwide, 2010-2020
  • Figure 15: Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, worldwide, 2010-2020
  • Figure 16: Major forecast drivers and impact, by region, worldwide, 2015-2020
  • Figure 17: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), CEE, 2010-2020
  • Figure 18: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, CEE, 2014-2020
  • Figure 19: Connections by type, and growth rates, CEE, 2014-2020
  • Figure 20: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, CEE, 2010-2020
  • Figure 21: Mobile ARPU by type, CEE, 2010-2020
  • Figure 22: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, CEE
  • Figure 23: Fixed penetration rates by service type, CEE, 2010-2020
  • Figure 24: Fixed ASPU by service type, CEE, 2010-2020
  • Figure 25: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, CEE
  • Figure 26: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), DVAP, 2010-2020
  • Figure 27: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, DVAP, 2014-2020
  • Figure 28: Connections by type, and growth rates, DVAP, 2014-2020
  • Figure 29: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, DVAP, 2010-2020
  • Figure 30: Mobile ARPU by type, DVAP, 2010-2020
  • Figure 31: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, DVAP
  • Figure 32: Fixed penetration rates by service type, DVAP, 2010-2020
  • Figure 33: Fixed ASPU by service type, DVAP, 2010-2020
  • Figure 34: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, DVAP
  • Figure 35: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), EMAP, 2010-2020
  • Figure 36: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, EMAP, 2014-2020
  • Figure 37: Connections by type, and growth rates, EMAP, 2014-2020
  • Figure 38: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, EMAP, 2010-2020
  • Figure 39: Mobile ARPU by type, EMAP, 2010-2020
  • Figure 40: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, EMAP
  • Figure 41: Fixed penetration rates by service type, EMAP, 2010-2020
  • Figure 42: Fixed ASPU by service type, EMAP, 2010-2020
  • Figure 43: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, EMAP
  • Figure 44: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), LATAM, 2010-2020
  • Figure 45: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, LATAM, 2014-2020
  • Figure 46: Connections by type, and growth rates, LATAM, 2014-2020
  • Figure 47: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, LATAM, 2010-2020
  • Figure 48: Mobile ARPU by type, LATAM, 2010-20201
  • Figure 49: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, LATAM
  • Figure 50: Fixed penetration rates by service type, LATAM, 2010-2020
  • Figure 51: Fixed ASPU by service type, LATAM, 2010-2020
  • Figure 52: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, LATAM
  • Figure 53: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), MENA, 2010-2020
  • Figure 54: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, MENA, 2014-2020
  • Figure 55: Connections by type, and growth rates, MENA, 2014-2020
  • Figure 56: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, MENA, 2010-2020
  • Figure 57: Mobile ARPU by type, MENA, 2010-2020
  • Figure 58: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, MENA
  • Figure 59: Fixed penetration rates by service type, MENA, 2010-2020
  • Figure 60: Fixed ASPU by service type, MENA, 2010-2020
  • Figure 61: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, MENA
  • Figure 62: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), NA, 2010-2020
  • Figure 63: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, NA, 2014-2020
  • Figure 64: Connections by type, and growth rates, NA, 2014-2020
  • Figure 65: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, NA, 2010-2020
  • Figure 66: Mobile ARPU by type, NA, 2010-2020
  • Figure 67: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, NA
  • Figure 68: Fixed penetration rates by service type, NA, 2010-2020
  • Figure 69: Fixed ASPU by service type, NA, 2010-2020
  • Figure 70: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, NA
  • Figure 71: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), SSA, 2010-2020
  • Figure 72: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, SSA, 2014-2020
  • Figure 73: Connections by type, and growth rates, SSA, 2014-2020
  • Figure 74: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, SSA, 2010-2020
  • Figure 75: Mobile ARPU by type, SSA, 2010-2020
  • Figure 76: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, SSA
  • Figure 77: Fixed penetration rates by service type, SSA, 2010-2020
  • Figure 78: Fixed ASPU by service type, SSA, 2010-2020
  • Figure 79: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, SSA
  • Figure 80: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), WE, 2010-2020
  • Figure 81: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, WE, 2014-2020
  • Figure 82: Connections by type, and growth rates, WE, 2014-2020
  • Figure 83: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, WE, 2010-2020
  • Figure 84: Mobile ARPU by type, WE, 2010-2020
  • Figure 85: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, WE
  • Figure 86: Fixed penetration rates by service type, WE, 2010-2020
  • Figure 87: Fixed ASPU by service type, WE, 2010-2020
  • Figure 88: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, WE
Back to Top