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市場調查報告書

全球通訊市場:趨勢與預測 2016-2021年

Global Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022

出版商 Analysys Mason 商品編碼 265540
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 40 slides
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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全球通訊市場:趨勢與預測 2016-2021年 Global Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022
出版日期: 2017年11月08日 內容資訊: 英文 40 slides
簡介

全球通訊業務收益預計將以0.7%的年複合成長率 (CAGR) 成長,在2021年前達到1兆5,400億美元的規模。

本報告提供全球通訊市場相關調查分析,提供您包含全球/主要8個地區170以上的行動·固定KPI (主要業績評估指標) 相關之5年預測,各地區的行動·固定各種服務趨勢·推動因素·預測的前提條件,業者策略概要,地區專題,業者的建議等系統性資訊。

目錄

摘要整理

全球預測·地區比較

  • 地區涵蓋範圍:NGA固定寬頻線路及4G技術預計將獨佔通訊市場
  • 市場背景:收益,預計將促進Telco (通訊業者) 服務的零售支出及服務可用性
  • 收益·ARPU:終端資料支出的增加預計降低行動ARPU的減少速度
  • 行動連線:4G預計將佔行動連線的46%,5G預測將開始
  • 智慧型手機及4G/5G:預計智慧型手機將佔全球終端的69%,北美 (95%)·西歐 (93%) 最高
  • 行動寬頻:主要在平板電腦的普及促進下,連接線路預計全球增加到4億8,000萬
  • 行動ARPU:預計高水準競爭及OTT服務的替代將持續帶給ARPU下滑壓力
  • 資料·收益,世代別:全球行動數據流量預計以年複合成長率40%成長,到2021年前增加到8倍
  • 固定服務:FTTP/B在DVAP (先進亞太地區)·EMAP (新興亞太地區) 佔優勢,預計將推動光纖普及率佔整體固定寬頻線路達到53%
  • 固定寬頻:在NGA·富有魅力的綁定套組可用性促進下,所有地區家庭普及率都將增加、其他

地區預測

  • CEE (中東歐) :傳統的語音·通訊收益減少,造成地區業務收益的減少
  • DVAP (先進亞太地區) :行動終端資料收益的增加,對預測期間內的通訊收益成長而言重要
  • EMAP (新興亞太地區) :轉變到OTT服務·4G技術之趨勢促進了行動終端的利用·通訊零售收益
  • LATAM (南美) :預測期間內行動終端資料區段預計將持續推動整體通訊零售收益的成長
  • MENA:總收益的成長,儘管投資少·經濟力弱,仍受到行動數據需求所推動
  • NA:受到美國行動服務收益減少的影響,在預測期間內預測收益低迷
  • SSA (撒哈拉以南非洲) :通訊零售收益預測將在2021年前達到472億美元,佔行動收益整體88.4%
  • WE (西歐) :4G·NGA技術型資訊服務的收益的增加將抵消部分通訊收益的減少、其他

著者·Analysys Mason

圖表

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目錄

"Operators will face diverse challenges because the regions are so different in terms of levels of network coverage and service adoption, but telecoms service revenue worldwide will increase."

Mobile competition will boost the availability and affordability of mobile services for the mass market worldwide. Increases in data usage and mobile handset revenue will be driven by the growing number of smartphones, wider 4G coverage, OTT services and demand for media streaming. We expect that mobile handset data will account for 36% of total retail telecoms revenue worldwide by 2022.

This report and data annex provide:

  • a 5-year forecast of more than 180 mobile and fixed KPIs, worldwide and for 8 regions
  • an analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service in each region, and a worldwide summary
  • an overview of operator strategies and region-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-region comparison
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

COVERAGE

Geographical coverageMajor KPIs 

Regions modelled

  • Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)
  • Developed Asia-Pacific (DVAP)
  • Emerging Asia-Pacific (EMAP)
  • Latin America (LATAM)
  • Middle East and North Africa (MENA)
  • North America (NA)
  • Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)
  • Western Europe (WE)

Connections
Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone

Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

Revenue
Mobile

  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Julia Martusewicz-Kulinska (Senior Analyst) is a member of the regional markets research team, contributing mainly to the European Core Forecasts, Telecoms Market Matrix and European Country Reports programmes. She has more than 14 years of research and telecoms industry regulations experience. Prior to joining Analysys Mason, she worked for the Polish national regulatory authority as thehead of the Research Division, where she was responsible for telecoms market research, and as the leader of the Telecommunications MarketAnalysis Department, which was accountable for co-operation between the regulatory authority and the Information Society and Media DG of the European Commission.

Table of Contents

  • 8.Executive summary
  • 9.Mobile handset data and NGA broadband services will drive telecoms retail revenue growth worldwide
  • 10.Telecoms retail revenue will increase worldwide driven by data revenue despite heavy declines in voice
  • 11.Worldwide fixed and mobile revenue will increase, driven mostly by network investments and upgrades
  • 12.Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
  • 13.Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators
  • 14.Global forecasts and regional comparison
  • 15.Geographical coverage: NA and DVAP will lead in 4G/5G penetration, while EMAP will have highest NGA share of FBB connections in 2022
  • 16.Market context: GDP per capita is a key factor in determining service availability and retail spending on telecommunication services worldwide
  • 17.Revenue and ARPU: Fixed broadband ASPU and mobile ARPU decline will slow down due to increasing service take-up and revenue growth
  • 18.Mobile penetration: Mobile penetration will increase to 103% worldwide by 2022 driven mainly by fast service take-up in EMAP and SSA
  • 19.Mobile connections: 4G's share of connections worldwide will increase from 28% in 2016 to 58% in 2022
  • 20.Smartphones and LTE: Smartphone penetration worldwide will increase to 79% by 2022
  • 21.Mobile broadband: Mobile broadband connections will account for 30% of total broadband connections worldwide
  • 22.Mobile ARPU: Data ARPU increase will help to slow down the worldwide ARPU decline trend
  • 23.Data and revenue by generation: Data traffic per connection will increase fivefold during the forecast period
  • 24.Fixed services: FTTP/B will account for more than half of the total fixed broadband connections by 2019
  • 25.Fixed broadband: More than 50% of households worldwide will have fixed broadband access by 2022
  • 26.Regional forecasts
  • 27.CEE: Increasing service revenue in the region will be driven primarily by retail revenue from mobile handset data
  • 28.CEE -mobile: Smartphones' share of handsets will increase in line with 4G penetration, driving growth in mobile data ARPU
  • 29.CEE -fixed: Fixed telecoms operators will focus on NGA network deployment and increasing FBB coverage of households
  • 30.DVAP: Mobile handset data and FBB will continue to drive revenue growth but the growth rate will slow down
  • 31.DVAP -mobile: Smartphones' share of handsets reached 71% in 2016 and will surpass 90% in 2022
  • 32.DVAP -fixed: FTTP/B will continue to be the dominant broadband technology and will lead the growth in the DVAP region
  • 33.EMAP: Mobile data will be a key driver of telecoms retail revenue growth supported by growing FBB take-up
  • 34.EMAP -mobile: Smartphones and 4G connections growth will continue throughout the forecast period
  • 35.EMAP -fixed: NGA networks and multi-play bundles will drive increase in fixed broadband connections
  • 36.LATAM: Data demand will drive revenue growth in LATAM, but at a slowing pace
  • 37.LATAM -mobile: Growth in the number of 4G connections will be quick, but 3G will continue to dominate in the region
  • 38.LATAM -fixed: FBB penetration growth will slow down due to economic conditions
  • 39.MENA: Mobile and fixed data services will drive revenue growth in the region but mobile voice revenue will continue to dominate
  • 40.MENA -mobile: Increasing saturation will led to a slowdown in numbers of new mobile connections
  • 41.MENA -fixed: Broadband penetration will increase in most countries driven by new infrastructure investments
  • 42.NA: Contrasting trends in fixed and mobile markets combinefor a stagnant revenue forecast
  • 43.NA -mobile: User base growth will be slow due to market maturity
  • NA -fixed: Penetration is approaching saturation, but lack of competition and upselling will prevent ARPU decline
  • SSA: Telecoms retail revenue will reach USD43 billion in 2022, and mobile will account for 86% of that total
  • SSA -mobile: Mobile penetration will increase driven by improved coverage and competition, but growth will slow down
  • SSA -fixed: Broadband penetration will increase significantly,albeit from a small base
  • WE: Growing broadband ASPU will limit revenue decline, but strong growth is unlikely
  • WE -mobile: User bases will be stagnant, but additional SIMs bundled in contracts will limit decline
  • WE -fixed: The FTTP/B user base will nearly triple between 2016 and 2022, but VDSL will be the leading access technology
  • About the author and Analysys Mason
  • About the author
  • About Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), worldwide, 2012-2022
  • Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, worldwide, 2016-
  • Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue growth by type and country, worldwide, -2022
  • Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for worldwide
  • Figure 5: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by region, worldwide, 2022
  • Figure 6: Metrics for the 8 regions modelled individually, 2016
  • Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, worldwide, 2012-2022
  • Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, worldwide, 2016-2022
  • Figure 9: Connections by type, and growth rates, worldwide, 2016-2022
  • Figure 10: Active mobile SIM penetration by region (excluding M2M), worldwide, -2022
  • Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G, 4G and 5G's share of connections, worldwide, 2012-2022
  • Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and 4G/5G's share of total connections (excluding M2M), worldwide, 2016 and 2022
  • Figure 13: Mobile broadband connections by screen size and technology, worldwide, 2012-2022
  • Figure 14: Mobile ARPU by country, worldwide, 2012-2022
  • Figure 15: Mobile service revenue and ARPU by technology, worldwide, 2012-2022
  • Figure 16: Data traffic and revenue per megabyte, worldwide, 2012-2022
  • Figure 17: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, worldwide, 2012-2022
  • Figure 18: Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, worldwide, 2012-2022
  • Figure 19: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), CEE, 2012-2022
  • Figure 20: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, CEE, 2016-2022
  • Figure 21: Connections by type, and growth rates, CEE, 2016-2022
  • Figure 22: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, CEE, 2012-2022
  • Figure 23: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, CEE, 2012-2022
  • Figure 24: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, CEE
  • Figure 25: Fixed penetration rates by service type, CEE, 2012-2022
  • Figure 26: Fixed ASPU by service type, CEE, 2012-2022
  • Figure 27: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, CEE
  • Figure 28: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), DVAP, 2012-2022
  • Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, DVAP, 2016-2022
  • Figure 30: Connections by type, and growth rates, DVAP, 2016-2022
  • Figure 31: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, DVAP, 2012-
  • Figure 32: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, DVAP, 2012-2022
  • Figure 33: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, DVAP
  • Figure 34: Fixed penetration rates by service type, DVAP, 2012-2022
  • Figure 35: Fixed ASPU by service type, DVAP, 2012-2022
  • Figure 36: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, DVAP
  • Figure 37: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), EMAP, 2012-2022
  • Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, EMAP, 2016-2022
  • Figure 39: Connections by type, and growth rates, EMAP, 2016-2022
  • Figure 40: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, EMAP, 2012-
  • Figure 41: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, EMAP, 2012-2022
  • Figure 42: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, EMAP
  • Figure 43: Fixed penetration rates by service type, EMAP, 2012-2022
  • Figure 44: Fixed ASPU by service type, EMAP, 2012-2022
  • Figure 45: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, EMAP
  • Figure 46: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), LATAM, 2012-2022
  • Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, LATAM 2016-2022
  • Figure 48: Connections by type, and growth rates, LATAM, 2016-2022
  • Figure 49: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, LATAM, 2012-2022
  • Figure 50: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, LATAM, 2012-2022
  • Figure 51: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, LATAM
  • Figure 52: Fixed penetration rates by service type, LATAM, 2012-2022
  • Figure 53: Fixed ASPU by service type, LATAM, 2012-2022
  • Figure 54: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, LATAM
  • Figure 55: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), MENA, 2012-2022
  • Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, MENA, 2016-2022
  • Figure 57: Connections by type, and growth rates, MENA, 2016-2022
  • Figure 58: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, MENA, 2012-2022
  • Figure 59: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, MENA, 2012-2022
  • Figure 60: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, MENA
  • Figure 61: Fixed penetration rates by service type, MENA, 2012-2022
  • Figure 62: Fixed ASPU by service type, MENA, 2012-2022
  • Figure 63: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, MENA
  • Figure 64: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), NA, 2012-2022
  • Figure 65: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, NA, 2016-2022
  • Figure 66: Connections by type, and growth rates, NA, 2016-2022
  • Figure 67: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, NA, 2012-2022
  • Figure 68: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, NA, 2012-2022
  • Figure 69: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, NA
  • Figure 70: Fixed penetration rates by service type, NA, 2012-2022
  • Figure 71: Fixed ASPU by service type, NA, 2012-2022
  • Figure 72: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, NA
  • Figure 73: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), SSA, 2012-2022
  • Figure 74: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, SSA, 2016-2022
  • Figure 75: Connections by type, and growth rates, SSA, 2016-2022
  • Figure 76: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, SSA, 2012-2022
  • Figure 77: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, SSA, 2012-2022
  • Figure 78: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, SSA
  • Figure 79: Fixed penetration rates by service type, SSA, 2012-2022
  • Figure 80: Fixed ASPU by service type, SSA, 2012-2022
  • Figure 81: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, SSA
  • Figure 82: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), WE, 2012-2022
  • Figure 83: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, WE, 2016-2022
  • Figure 84: Connections by type, and growth rates, WE, 2016-2022
  • Figure 85: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, WE, 2012-2022
  • Figure 86: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, WE, 2012-2022
  • Figure 87: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, WE
  • Figure 88: Fixed penetration rates by service type, WE, 2012-2022
  • Figure 89: Fixed ASPU by service type, WE, 2012-2022
  • Figure 90: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, WE
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