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市場調查報告書

全球通訊市場:趨勢與預測 2016-2021年

Global Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2016-2021

出版商 Analysys Mason 商品編碼 265540
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 56 slides
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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全球通訊市場:趨勢與預測 2016-2021年 Global Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2016-2021
出版日期: 2016年12月13日 內容資訊: 英文 56 slides
簡介

全球通訊業務收益預計將以0.7%的年複合成長率 (CAGR) 成長,在2021年前達到1兆5,400億美元的規模。

本報告提供全球通訊市場相關調查分析,提供您包含全球/主要8個地區170以上的行動·固定KPI (主要業績評估指標) 相關之5年預測,各地區的行動·固定各種服務趨勢·推動因素·預測的前提條件,業者策略概要,地區專題,業者的建議等系統性資訊。

目錄

摘要整理

全球預測·地區比較

  • 地區涵蓋範圍:NGA固定寬頻線路及4G技術預計將獨佔通訊市場
  • 市場背景:收益,預計將促進Telco (通訊業者) 服務的零售支出及服務可用性
  • 收益·ARPU:終端資料支出的增加預計降低行動ARPU的減少速度
  • 行動連線:4G預計將佔行動連線的46%,5G預測將開始
  • 智慧型手機及4G/5G:預計智慧型手機將佔全球終端的69%,北美 (95%)·西歐 (93%) 最高
  • 行動寬頻:主要在平板電腦的普及促進下,連接線路預計全球增加到4億8,000萬
  • 行動ARPU:預計高水準競爭及OTT服務的替代將持續帶給ARPU下滑壓力
  • 資料·收益,世代別:全球行動數據流量預計以年複合成長率40%成長,到2021年前增加到8倍
  • 固定服務:FTTP/B在DVAP (先進亞太地區)·EMAP (新興亞太地區) 佔優勢,預計將推動光纖普及率佔整體固定寬頻線路達到53%
  • 固定寬頻:在NGA·富有魅力的綁定套組可用性促進下,所有地區家庭普及率都將增加、其他

地區預測

  • CEE (中東歐) :傳統的語音·通訊收益減少,造成地區業務收益的減少
  • DVAP (先進亞太地區) :行動終端資料收益的增加,對預測期間內的通訊收益成長而言重要
  • EMAP (新興亞太地區) :轉變到OTT服務·4G技術之趨勢促進了行動終端的利用·通訊零售收益
  • LATAM (南美) :預測期間內行動終端資料區段預計將持續推動整體通訊零售收益的成長
  • MENA:總收益的成長,儘管投資少·經濟力弱,仍受到行動數據需求所推動
  • NA:受到美國行動服務收益減少的影響,在預測期間內預測收益低迷
  • SSA (撒哈拉以南非洲) :通訊零售收益預測將在2021年前達到472億美元,佔行動收益整體88.4%
  • WE (西歐) :4G·NGA技術型資訊服務的收益的增加將抵消部分通訊收益的減少、其他

著者·Analysys Mason

圖表

本網頁內容可能與最新版本有所差異。詳細情況請與我們聯繫。

目錄

"Telecoms service revenue will increase worldwide to USD1540 billion in 2021, at a CAGR of 0.7%."

Telecoms retail revenue growth worldwide will be boosted by increasing handset data usage supported by widespread 4G coverage and OTT services. In developed regions, the increasing number of next-generation access (NGA) deployments and network upgrades will boost fixed broadband revenue. Where fixed services are generally less prevalent, revenue growth will be based on the increasing number of subscriptions and on mounting data usage.

This report and data annex provide:

  • a 5-year forecast of more than 170 mobile and fixed KPIs, worldwide and for 8 regions
  • an analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service in each region, and a worldwide summary
  • an overview of operator strategies and region-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-region comparison
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

Coverage

Geographical coverageKey performance indicators
   Regions modelled
  • Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)
  • Developed Asia–Pacific (DVAP)
  • Emerging Asia–Pacific (EMAP)
  • Latin America (LATAM)
  • Middle East and North Africa (MENA)
  • North America (NA)
  • Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)
  • Western Europe (WE)
   Connections
  • Mobile
    • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
    • Prepaid, contract
    • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
    • Smartphone, non-smartphone
  • Fixed
    • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
    • Narrowband voice, VoBB
    • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other
  • Fixed and mobile voice traffic
    • Outgoing minutes, MoU
   Revenue
  • Mobile
    • Service, retail
    • Prepaid, contract
    • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
    • Handset voice, messaging, data
  • Fixed
    • Service, retail
    • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS
    • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other
  • Mobile ARPU
    • SIMs, handset
    • Prepaid, contract
    • Handset voice, data

Table of Contents

  • 8. Executive summary
  • 9. Telecoms retail revenue growth worldwide will be sustained by the increasing demand for mobile data and super - fast broadband services
  • 10. Telecoms retail revenue will increase by USD82 billion by 2021 because handset data revenue will offset a decline in voice revenue
  • 11. Revenue worldwide will increase in the mobile and fixed segments driven by infrastructure investments in network roll - out
  • 12. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
  • 13. Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators
  • 14. Global forecasts and regional comparison
  • 15. Geographical coverage: NGA fixed broadband lines and 4G technology will dominate the telecoms market by 2021
  • 16. Market context: Revenue will be driven by retail spending on telco services (which depends on GDP per capita) and service availability
  • 17. Revenue and ARPU: An increase in handset data spending will slow the decline in mobile ARPU
  • 18. Mobile penetration: Demand for, and the fast pace of take - up of, mobile in EMAP and SSA will boost penetration to 105% worldwide by 2021
  • 19. Mobile connections: 4G will account for 46% of mobile connections and 5G will be launched commercially by 2021
  • 20. Smartphones and 4G/5G: Smartphones will account for 69% of handsets worldwide and take - up will be highest in NA (95%) and WE (93%)
  • 21. Mobile broadband: Connections will increase to 480 million worldwide driven mainly by the take - up of connected tablets
  • 22. Mobile ARPU: The high level of competition and substitution by OTT services will continue to put downward pressure on ARPU
  • 23. Data and revenue by generation: Mobile data traffic worldwide will grow nearly eight - fold by 2021, at a CAGR of 40%
  • 24. Fixed services: FTTP/B predominance in DVAP and EMAP will boost worldwide fibre penetration to 53% of total fixed broadband lines in 2021
  • 25. Fixed broadband: Household penetration will increase in all regions driven by the availability of NGA and attractive bundles
  • 26. Regional forecasts
  • 27. CEE: Declines in traditional voice and messaging revenue will drive down service revenue in the region
  • 28. CEE mobile: ARPU will decline in most countries in CEE due to intense price competition but the decline will be slow
  • 29. CEE fixed: Broadband household penetration will increase, driven by the take - up of bundled offers and NGA investments
  • 30. DVAP: Increases in mobile handset data revenue will be crucial to telecoms revenue growth in the forecast period
  • 31. DVAP mobile: 4G/5G technology will be used by 95% of total mobile connections in 2021
  • 32. DVAP fixed: NGA penetration will continue to increase, driving IPTV take - up and slowing down the decline in ASPU Contents Global telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2016 2021
  • 33. EMAP: OTT services and migration to 4G technology will drive mobile handset usage and telecoms retail revenue
  • 34. EMAP mobile: Increasing penetration in the highly competitive prepaid segment will reduce mobile ARPU revenue
  • 35. EMAP fixed: NGA penetration growth will be supported by government initiatives to increase FBB service availability
  • 36. LATAM: Total telecoms retail revenue growth will continue in the forecast period driven by the mobile handset data segment
  • 37. LATAM mobile: 3G will dominate mobile connections until 2021 despite investments in rolling out 4G networks
  • 38. LATAM fixed: Broadband penetration will continue to increase driven mainly by cable and FTTP/B subscription take - up
  • 39. MENA: Total revenue growth will be driven by the demand for mobile data despite lower investments and a weaker economy
  • 40. MENA mobile: Increasing content and OTT service usage due to wide LTE coverage will boost handset data revenue growth
  • 41. MENA fixed: Broadband penetration growth will be driven by investments in DSL and fibre infrastructure
  • 42. NA: Revenue stagnation during the forecast period will be driven by declining mobile service revenue in the USA
  • 43. NA mobile: Connected devices will drive mobile penetration growth and 91% of connections will be 4G in 2021
  • 44. NA fixed: A lack of competition in fixed markets will lead to NA having the highest fixed broadband ASPU worldwide
  • 45. SSA: Telecoms retail revenue will reach USD 47. 2 billion in 2021, with mobile revenue accounting for 88.4% of that total
  • 46. SSA mobile: Penetration will increase, driven by the high level of demand for, and increasing affordability of, services
  • 47. SSA fixed: Fixed services are underdeveloped and will remain relatively unavailable compared to mobile services
  • 48. WE: Telecoms revenue decline will be alleviated by revenue increase from data services based on 4G and NGA technology
  • 49. WE mobile: Increasing 4G penetration of SIMs and OTT service usage will drive handset data ARPU growth
  • 50. WE fixed: The increasing household penetration of NGA lines will slow down the decline in broadband ASPU
  • 51. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 52. About the authors
  • 53. About Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), worldwide, 2011 2021
  • Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, worldwide, 2015 2021
  • Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue growth by type and country, worldwide, 2015 2021
  • Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for worldwide
  • Figure 5: Mobile connections by technology generation and NGA?fs share of fixed broadband connections, by region, worldwide, 2021
  • Figure 6: Metrics for the eight regions modelled individually and worldwide, 2015
  • Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, worldwide, 2011 2021
  • Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, worldwide, 2015 2021
  • Figure 9: Connections by type, and growth rates, worldwide, 2015 2021
  • Figure 10: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding IoT), worldwide, 2011 2021
  • Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding IoT), and 3G, 4G and 5G?fs share of connections, worldwide, 2011 2021
  • Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and 4G/5G?fs share of total connections (excluding IoT), worldwide, 2015 and 2021
  • Figure 13: Mobile broadband connections by screen size and technology, worldwide, 2011 2021
  • Figure 14: Mobile ARPU (excluding IoT) by region and worldwide, 2011 2021
  • Figure 15: Mobile service revenue and ARPU by technology, worldwide, 2011 2021
  • Figure 16: Data traffic and revenue per gigabyte, worldwide, 2011 2021
  • Figure 17: Fixed broadband connections by type, and mobile broadband, fixed voice, VoBB and IPTV connections, worldwide, 2011 2021
  • Figure 18: Fixed broadband penetration of households by region, 2011 2021
  • Figure 19: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), CEE, 2011 2021
  • Figure 20: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, CEE, 2015 2021
  • Figure 21: Connections by type, and growth rates, CEE, 2015 2021
  • Figure 22: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, CEE, 2011 2021
  • Figure 23: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, CEE, 2011 2021
  • Figure 24: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, CEE
  • Figure 25: Fixed penetration rates by service type, CEE, 2011 2021
  • Figure 26: Fixed ASPU by service type, CEE, 2011 2021
  • Figure 27: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, CEE
  • Figure 28: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), DVAP, 2011 2021
  • Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, DVAP, 2015 2021 List of figures Global telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2016 2021
  • Figure 30: Connections by type, and growth rates, DVAP, 2015 2021
  • Figure 31: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, DVAP, 2011 2021
  • Figure 32: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, DVAP, 2011 2021
  • Figure 33: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, DVAP
  • Figure 34: Fixed penetration rates by service type, DVAP, 2011 2021
  • Figure 35: Fixed ASPU by service type, DVAP, 2011 2021
  • Figure 36: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, DVAP
  • Figure 37: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), EMAP, 2011 2021
  • Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, EMAP, 2015 2021
  • Figure 39: Connections by type, and growth rates, EMAP, 2015 2021
  • Figure 40: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, EMAP, 2011 2021
  • Figure 41: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, EMAP, 2011 2021
  • Figure 42: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, EMAP
  • Figure 43: Fixed penetration rates by service type, EMAP, 2011 2021
  • Figure 44: Fixed ASPU by service type, EMAP, 2011 2021
  • Figure 45: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, EMAP
  • Figure 46: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), LATAM, 2011 2021
  • Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, LATAM, 2015 2021
  • Figure 48: Connections by type, and growth rates, LATAM, 2015 2021
  • Figure 49: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, LATAM, 2011 2021
  • Figure 50: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, LATAM, 2011 2021
  • Figure 51: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, LATAM
  • Figure 52: Fixed penetration rates by service type, LATAM, 2011 2021
  • Figure 53: Fixed ASPU by service type, LATAM, 2011 2021
  • Figure 54: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, LATAM
  • Figure 55: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), MENA, 2011 2021
  • Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, MENA, 2015 2021
  • Figure 57: Connections by type, and growth rates, MENA, 2015 2021
  • Figure 58: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, MENA, 2011 2021
  • Figure 59: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, MENA, 2011 2021
  • Figure 60: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, MENA List of figures Global telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2016 2021
  • Figure 61: Fixed penetration rates by service type, MENA, 2011 2021
  • Figure 62: Fixed ASPU by service type, MENA, 2011 2021
  • Figure 63: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, MENA
  • Figure 64: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), NA, 2011 2021
  • Figure 65: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, NA, 2015 2021
  • Figure 66: Connections by type, and growth rates, NA, 2015 2021
  • Figure 67: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, NA, 2011 2021
  • Figure 68: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, NA, 2011 2021
  • Figure 69: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, NA
  • Figure 70: Fixed penetration rates by service type, NA, 2011 2021
  • Figure 71: Fixed ASPU by service type, NA, 2011 2021
  • Figure 72: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, NA
  • Figure 73: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), SSA, 2011 2021
  • Figure 74: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, SSA, 2015 2021
  • Figure 75: Connections by type, and growth rates, SSA, 2015 2021
  • Figure 76: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, SSA, 2011 2021
  • Figure 77: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, SSA, 2011 2021
  • Figure 78: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, SSA
  • Figure 79: Fixed penetration rates by service type, SSA, 2011 2021
  • Figure 80: Fixed ASPU by service type, SSA, 2011 2021
  • Figure 81: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, SSA
  • Figure 82: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), WE, 2011 2021
  • Figure 83: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, WE, 2015 2021
  • Figure 84: Connections by type, and growth rates, WE, 2015 2021
  • Figure 85: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, WE, 2011 2021
  • Figure 86: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, WE, 2011 2021
  • Figure 87: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, WE
  • Figure 88: Fixed penetration rates by service type, WE, 2011 2021
  • Figure 89: Fixed ASPU by service type, WE, 2011 2021
  • Figure 90: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, WE List of figures Global telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2016 2021
  • Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), worldwide, 2011 2021
  • Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, worldwide, 2015 2021
  • Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue growth by type and country, worldwide, 2015 2021
  • Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for worldwide
  • Figure 5: Mobile connections by technology generation and NGA?fs share of fixed broadband connections, by region, worldwide, 2021
  • Figure 6: Metrics for the eight regions modelled individually and worldwide, 2015
  • Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, worldwide, 2011 2021
  • Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, worldwide, 2015 2021
  • Figure 9: Connections by type, and growth rates, worldwide, 2015 2021
  • Figure 10: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding IoT), worldwide, 2011 2021
  • Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding IoT), and 3G, 4G and 5G?fs share of connections, worldwide, 2011 2021
  • Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and 4G/5G?fs share of total connections (excluding IoT), worldwide, 2015 and 2021
  • Figure 13: Mobile broadband connections by screen size and technology, worldwide, 2011 2021
  • Figure 14: Mobile ARPU (excluding IoT) by region and worldwide, 2011 2021
  • Figure 15: Mobile service revenue and ARPU by technology, worldwide, 2011 2021
  • Figure 16: Data traffic and revenue per gigabyte, worldwide, 2011 2021
  • Figure 17: Fixed broadband connections by type, and mobile broadband, fixed voice, VoBB and IPTV connections, worldwide, 2011 2021
  • Figure 18: Fixed broadband penetration of households by region, 2011 2021
  • Figure 19: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), CEE, 2011 2021
  • Figure 20: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, CEE, 2015 2021
  • Figure 21: Connections by type, and growth rates, CEE, 2015 2021
  • Figure 22: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, CEE, 2011 2021
  • Figure 23: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, CEE, 2011 2021
  • Figure 24: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, CEE
  • Figure 25: Fixed penetration rates by service type, CEE, 2011 2021
  • Figure 26: Fixed ASPU by service type, CEE, 2011 2021
  • Figure 27: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, CEE
  • Figure 28: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), DVAP, 2011 2021
  • Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, DVAP, 2015 2021
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