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市場調查報告書

中東、北非的通訊市場:趨勢、預測 2016-2021年

Middle East and North Africa Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2016-2021

出版商 Analysys Mason 商品編碼 256870
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 72 Slides
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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中東、北非的通訊市場:趨勢、預測 2016-2021年 Middle East and North Africa Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2016-2021
出版日期: 2016年08月03日 內容資訊: 英文 72 Slides
簡介

中東、北非的通訊服務市場,預計從2015年到2021年以1.3%的年複合成長率擴大,達到776億美元的規模。2021年的中東、北非的通訊業務收益的93%預計由行動服務帶來。

本報告提供中東、北非的通訊服務市場相關調查,該地區及主要12個國家的100以上行動/固定KPI的5年預測,各行動、固定服務趨勢,促進要素及預測的前提條件的詳細分析,各國的業者策略的概要,及行動、固定業者的主要的建議等彙整資料。

調查對象

  • 地區
    • 中東、北非
  • 國家
    • 阿爾及利亞
    • 埃及
    • 伊朗
    • 伊拉克
    • 以色列
    • 科威特
    • 摩洛哥
    • 阿曼
    • 卡達
    • 沙烏地阿拉伯
    • 突尼西亞
    • UAE

KPI

  • 連接
  • 行動
    • 終端、行動寬頻、M2M
    • 預付、契約
    • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
    • 智慧型手機、非智慧型手機
  • 固定
    • 語音、寬頻、網路電視、撥接上網
    • 窄頻語音、VoBB
    • DSL、FTTH/B、電纜、BFWA、其他
  • 固定、行動語音流量
    • 發信時間,MoU
  • 收益
  • 行動
    • 服務、零售
    • 預付、契約
    • 終端、行動寬頻、M2M
    • 終端語音、通訊、資料
  • 固定
    • 服務、零售
    • 語音、寬頻、網路電視、撥接上網、BNS
    • DSL、FTTH/B、電纜、BFWA、其他
  • 行動ARPU
    • SIM、終端
    • 預付、契約
    • 終端語音、資料

目錄

摘要整理

地區預測、各國家比較

  • 對象地區
  • 市場背景
  • 收益、ARPU
  • 行動普及率
  • 行動連線
  • 智慧型手機、4G/5G
  • 行動ARPU
  • 固定服務
  • 固定寬頻
  • 主要的促進要素:中東、北非市場

各國的預測

  • 阿爾及利亞
  • 埃及
  • 伊朗
  • 伊拉克
  • 科威特
  • 摩洛哥
  • 阿曼
  • 卡達
  • 沙烏地阿拉伯
  • 突尼西亞
  • UAE

關於著者、Analysys Mason

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目錄

"The telecoms service market in the Middle East and North Africa will grow at a CAGR of 1.3% between 2015 and 2021 to USD77.6 billion."

We forecast that 93% of total telecoms service revenue in 2021 in the Middle East and North Africa will come from mobile services. Smartphone adoption has been strong and LTE is gaining momentum across the region, creating opportunities for operators to monetise the huge consumer appetite for data.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • a 5-year forecast of more than 100 mobile and fixed KPIs for the Middle East and North Africa region and for twelve key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
  • data for Iran, which has been added to the forecast coverage
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, which highlights similarities and differences through a cross-country comparison
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

COVERAGE

Geographical coverageKey performance indicators 

Regions modelled

  • Middle East and North Africa

Connections

Revenue

Countries modelled individually

  • Algeria
  • Egypt
  • Iran*
  • Iraq
  • Israel
  • Kuwait
  • Morocco
  • Oman
  • Qatar
  • Saudi Arabia
  • Tunisia
  • United Arab Emirates (UAE)

Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone

Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTH/B, cable, BFWA, other

Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

Mobile

  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS
  • DSL, FTTH/B, cable, BFWA, other

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data

Countries not modelled individually,
but modelled as part of
the region as a whole

  • Bahrain
  • Jordan
  • Lebanon
  • Libya
  • Palestine
  • Syria
  • Yemen

 

 

*New core country added to the MENA forecast for the first time.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Karim Yaici (Senior Analyst) leads Analysys Mason's The Middle East and Africa regional research programme. His primary areas of specialisation include operators' digital strategies, new telecoms opportunities and challenges, and consumer trends in growth markets. Prior to joining Analysys Mason, Karim was an associate analyst at Ovum, where he authored reports on mobile accessories and mobile applications. Prior to that, he worked as a research engineer in the Institute for Communication Systems and Vodafone. Karim holds an MSc in Information Systems Management from the University of Southampton and a PhD in human-computer interaction from the University of Surrey.

Table of Contents

  • 11. Executive summary
  • 12. The telecoms service market in MENA will grow to USD77.5 billion in 2021, against the backdrop of a weaker macroeconomic outlook
  • 13. Telecoms retail revenue will increase by USD6.2 billion between 2015 and 2021, driven by mobile handset data and fixed broadband services
  • 14. Fixed or mobile revenue will grow in most countries, but competition, market saturation and lack of investment will have an impact on some
  • 15. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
  • 16. Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators
  • 17. Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
  • 18. Geographical coverage: We model twelve telecoms markets, which will account for 90.7% of telecoms service revenue in MENA in 2021
  • 19. Market context: The twelve modelled countries account for 83.3% of total population and 92.4% of telecoms service revenue in MENA in 2015
  • 20. Revenue and ARPU: Mobile and fixed data services will drive revenue growth in the region, but mobile voice revenue will continue to dominate
  • 21. Mobile penetration: Maturing markets and enforced SIM registration have already led to a slow down in the number of new mobile connections
  • 22. Mobile connections: 44.2% of all connections will be 3G by 2021, while LTE will account for nearly a quarter of mobile SIMs (excluding M2M)
  • 23. Smartphones and 4G/5G: Israel will have the highest smartphone penetration and UAE will lead 4G/5G take-up rates over the next 5 years
  • 24. Mobile ARPU: Growth in data will offset the decline from voice and messaging, thereby lessening the rate of decline of ARPU
  • 25. Fixed services: Broadband market will grow in most countries, driven by upgrades to access technology and greenfield infrastructure deployment
  • 26. Fixed broadband: Household penetration will grow in all markets, driven by market competition and supported by national broadband plans
  • 27. Key drivers at a glance for each Middle East and North Africa market
  • 28. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
  • 29. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
  • 30. Individual country forecasts
  • 31. Algeria: Retail revenue will grow at a CAGR of 0.6% during 2015-2021, driven by demand for mobile and fixed broadband services
  • 32. Algeria - mobile: 3G and the upcoming 4G launch will provide the momentum to drive demand for mobile data services
  • 33. Algeria - fixed: DSL and fixed LTE have great potential for growth, but lack of investment will be a significant obstacle
  • 34. Egypt: Service revenue will grow at a CAGR of 0.9% to 2021, driven by demand for fixed broadband and handset data
  • 35. Egypt - mobile: Service revenue is set to decline at a CAGR of -1.1% over 2016-2021, giving a weakened market outlook
  • 36. Egypt - fixed: Strong growth in broadband connections, while price adjustments and business lines will help slow voice erosion
  • 37. Iran: Lifting of sanctions will improve GDP and encourage investment, while data services will bolster the mobile segment
  • 38. Iran - mobile: Increased access to 3G and 4G services and the prospect of new market entrants will underpin future growth
  • 39. Iran - fixed: Market development will depend on investment in infrastructure, amidst competition from mobile to voice services
  • 40. Iraq: The challenging economic and volatile security situations will take their toll on consumer demand in the short term
  • 41. Iraq - mobile: Political instability and low oil prices will impact the economy, but data offer some potential for revenue growth
  • 42. Iraq - fixed: Poor fixed line infrastructure and persistent civil war will contribute to the under-development of the sector
  • 43. Israel: Competition and price erosion will continue to impact mobile revenue; fixed market liberalisation will spur competition
  • 44. Israel - mobile: Intense competition will result in significant revenue decline, while 3G share will start to fall from 2016
  • 45. Israel - fixed: Speed upgrades and the introduction of fibre in 2016 will spur further growth in broadband market revenue
  • 46. Kuwait: Mobile market dynamism and growth are contrasted with a fixed market that lacks competition and investment
  • 47. Kuwait - mobile: LTE will be central to mobile market competition as operators aim to increase data usage to stabilise ARPU
  • 48. Kuwait - fixed: Planned privatisation of fixed infrastructure and fixed-mobile partnerships could unlock broadband potential
  • 49. Morocco: Voice revenue will decline, but still dominate the market, while mobile handset data will be the fastest-growing sector
  • 50. Morocco - mobile: Strong growth of data revenue will be insufficient to offset rapidly declining voice revenue
  • 51. Morocco - fixed: Fixed voice market will remain largely resilient, while broadband adoption will be driven by business and dual-play
  • 52. Oman: Service revenue growth will maintain its rapid rise, driven by very strong demand for fixed and mobile data
  • 53. Oman - mobile: Very strong data revenue outlook, while a new third entrant could pose a risk of ARPU and market value erosion
  • 54. Oman - fixed: Fixed voice revenue will decline from 2015, while fibre competition increases due to ambitious roll-out plans
  • 55. Qatar: Strong economic and population growth will help telecoms services to generate QAR10 billion in retail revenue by 2021
  • 56. Qatar - mobile: Demand from migrants will sustain growth in connections, while 4G competition will be based on technology
  • 57. Qatar - fixed: Quasi-ubiquity of fibre creates opportunities for upselling of TV services, but these will be limited to Ooredoo
  • 58. Saudi Arabia: Broadband data services will drive retail revenue growth, but competition will reduce short-term market growth
  • 59. Saudi Arabia - mobile: MVNOs will drive subscriber growth in the short term, while data will capture half of retail revenue by 2021
  • 60. Saudi Arabia - fixed: Voice market recovered in 2015 thanks to the business segment while broadband outlook appears strong
  • 61. Tunisia: Infrastructure investments and competition will help stimulate growth amidst political and economic challenges
  • 62. Tunisia - mobile: Steady growth of subscribers from Lycamobile launch, while demand for data will be key to revenue growth
  • 63. Tunisia - fixed: The broadband market will grow slowly due to competition from mobile, while the telephony market will contract
  • 64. UAE: Economic diversification and population growth will help increase telecoms retail revenue to AED42.9 billion by 2021
  • 65. UAE - mobile: Increasing contributions from postpaid and data users should help to drive revenue growth and slow ARPU erosion
  • 66. UAE - fixed: Infrastructure sharing will stimulate competition and encourage operators to invest in the sector to maintain growth
  • 67. About the author and Analysys Mason
  • 68. About the author
  • 69. Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
  • 70. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 71. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Middle East and North Africa, 2011-2021
  • Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, Middle East and North Africa, 2015-2021
  • Figure 3: CAGRs for fixed and mobile retail revenue (2015-2021) and total retail revenue (2021) by country, Middle East and North Africa
  • Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for the Middle East and North Africa
  • Figure 5: Mobile connections by technology generation and NGA penetration of fixed broadband connections by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2021
  • Figure 6: Metrics for the twelve countries modelled individually in the Middle East and North Africa, 2015
  • Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, Middle East and North Africa, 2011-2021
  • Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Middle East and North Africa, 2015-2021
  • Figure 9: Connections by type, and growth rates, Middle East and North Africa, 2015-2021
  • Figure 10: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Middle East and North Africa, 2011-2021
  • Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G, 4G and 5G's share of connections, Middle East and North Africa, 2011-2021
  • Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and 4G/5G share of total connections (excluding M2M), Middle East and North Africa, 2015 and 2021
  • Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2011-2021
  • Figure 14: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, Middle East and North Africa, 2011-2021
  • Figure 15: Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2011-2021
  • Figure 16: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2015) and future trajectory (2016-2021) by country, Middle East and North Africa
  • Figure 17: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
  • Figure 18: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Algeria, 2011-2021
  • Figure 19: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Algeria, 2015-2021
  • Figure 20: Connections by type, and growth rates, Algeria, 2015-2021
  • Figure 21: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Algeria, 2011-2021
  • Figure 22: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Algeria, 2011-2021
  • Figure 23: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Algeria
  • Figure 24: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Algeria, 2011-2021
  • Figure 25: Fixed ASPU by service type, Algeria, 2011-2021
  • Figure 26: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Algeria
  • Figure 27: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Egypt, 2011-2021
  • Figure 28: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Egypt, 2015-2021
  • Figure 29: Connections by type, and growth rates, Egypt, 2015-2021
  • Figure 30: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Egypt, 2011-2021
  • Figure 31: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Egypt, 2011-2021
  • Figure 32: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Egypt
  • Figure 33: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Egypt, 2011-2021
  • Figure 34: Fixed ASPU by service type, Egypt, 2011-2021
  • Figure 35: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Egypt
  • Figure 36: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Iran, 2011-2021
  • Figure 37: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Iran, 2015-2021
  • Figure 38: Connections by type, and growth rates, Iran, 2015-2021
  • Figure 39: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Iran, 2011-2021
  • Figure 40: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Iran, 2011-2021
  • Figure 41: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Iran
  • Figure 42: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Iran, 2011-2021
  • Figure 43: Fixed ASPU by service type, Iran, 2011-2021
  • Figure 44: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Iran
  • Figure 45: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Iraq, 2011-2021
  • Figure 46: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Iraq, 2015-2021
  • Figure 47: Connections by type, and growth rates, Iraq, 2015-2021
  • Figure 48: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Iraq, 2011-2021
  • Figure 49: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Iraq, 2011-2021
  • Figure 50: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Iraq
  • Figure 51: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Iraq, 2011-2021
  • Figure 52: Fixed ASPU by service type, Iraq, 2011-2021
  • Figure 53: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Iraq
  • Figure 54: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Israel, 2011-2021
  • Figure 55: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Israel, 2015-2021
  • Figure 56: Connections by type, and growth rates, Israel, 2015-2021
  • Figure 57: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Israel, 2011-2021
  • Figure 58: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Israel, 2011-2021
  • Figure 59: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Israel
  • Figure 60: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Israel, 2011-2021
  • Figure 61: Fixed ASPU by service type, Israel, 2011-2021
  • Figure 62: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Israel
  • Figure 63: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Kuwait, 2011-2021
  • Figure 64: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Kuwait, 2015-2021
  • Figure 65: Connections by type, and growth rates, Kuwait, 2015-2021
  • Figure 66: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Kuwait, 2011-2021
  • Figure 67: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Kuwait, 2011-2021
  • Figure 68: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Kuwait
  • Figure 69: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Kuwait, 2011-2021
  • Figure 70: Fixed ASPU by service type, Kuwait, 2011-2021
  • Figure 71: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Kuwait
  • Figure 72: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Morocco, 2011-2021
  • Figure 73: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Morocco, 2015-2021
  • Figure 74: Connections by type, and growth rates, Morocco, 2015-2021
  • Figure 75: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Morocco, 2011-2021
  • Figure 76: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Morocco, 2011-2021
  • Figure 77: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Morocco
  • Figure 78: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Morocco, 2011-2021
  • Figure 79: Fixed ASPU by service type, Morocco, 2011-2021
  • Figure 80: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Morocco
  • Figure 81: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Oman, 2011-2021
  • Figure 82: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Oman, 2015-2021
  • Figure 83: Connections by type, and growth rates, Oman, 2015-2021
  • Figure 84: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Oman, 2011-2021
  • Figure 85: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Oman, 2011-2021
  • Figure 86: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Oman
  • Figure 87: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Oman, 2011-2021
  • Figure 88: Fixed ASPU by service type, Oman, 2011-2021
  • Figure 89: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Oman
  • Figure 90: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Qatar, 2011-2021
  • Figure 91: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Qatar, 2015-2021
  • Figure 92: Connections by type, and growth rates, Qatar, 2015-2021
  • Figure 93: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Qatar, 2011-2021
  • Figure 94: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Qatar, 2011-2021
  • Figure 95: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Qatar
  • Figure 96: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Qatar, 2011-2021
  • Figure 97: Fixed ASPU by service type, Qatar, 2011-2021
  • Figure 98: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Qatar
  • Figure 99: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Saudi Arabia, 2011-2021
  • Figure 100: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Saudi Arabia, 2015-2021
  • Figure 101: Connections by type, and growth rates, Saudi Arabia, 2015-2021
  • Figure 102: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Saudi Arabia 2011-2021
  • Figure 103: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Saudi Arabia, 2011-2021
  • Figure 104: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Saudi Arabia
  • Figure 105: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Saudi Arabia, 2011-2021
  • Figure 106: Fixed ASPU by service type, Saudi Arabia, 2011-2021
  • Figure 107: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Saudi Arabia
  • Figure 108: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Tunisia, 2011-2021
  • Figure 109: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Tunisia, 2015-2021
  • Figure 110: Connections by type, and growth rates, Tunisia, 2015-2021
  • Figure 111: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Tunisia, 2011-2021
  • Figure 112: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Tunisia, 2011-2021
  • Figure 113: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Tunisia
  • Figure 114: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Tunisia, 2011-2021
  • Figure 115: Fixed ASPU by service type, Tunisia, 2011-2021
  • Figure 116: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Tunisia
  • Figure 117: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), UAE, 2011-2021
  • Figure 118: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, UAE, 2015-2021
  • Figure 119: Connections by type, and growth rates, UAE, 2015-2021
  • Figure 120: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, UAE, 2011-2021
  • Figure 121: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, UAE, 2011-2021
  • Figure 122: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, UAE
  • Figure 123: Fixed penetration rates by service type, UAE, 2011-2021
  • Figure 124: Fixed ASPU by service type, UAE, 2011-2021
  • Figure 125: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, UAE
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