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市場調查報告書

中東、北非的通訊市場:趨勢、預測 2016-2021年

Middle East and North Africa Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022

出版商 Analysys Mason 商品編碼 256870
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 52 Slides
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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中東、北非的通訊市場:趨勢、預測 2016-2021年 Middle East and North Africa Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022
出版日期: 2017年08月21日 內容資訊: 英文 52 Slides
簡介

中東、北非的通訊服務市場,預計從2015年到2021年以1.3%的年複合成長率擴大,達到776億美元的規模。2021年的中東、北非的通訊業務收益的93%預計由行動服務帶來。

本報告提供中東、北非的通訊服務市場相關調查,該地區及主要12個國家的100以上行動/固定KPI的5年預測,各行動、固定服務趨勢,促進要素及預測的前提條件的詳細分析,各國的業者策略的概要,及行動、固定業者的主要的建議等彙整資料。

調查對象

  • 地區
    • 中東、北非
  • 國家
    • 阿爾及利亞
    • 埃及
    • 伊朗
    • 伊拉克
    • 以色列
    • 科威特
    • 摩洛哥
    • 阿曼
    • 卡達
    • 沙烏地阿拉伯
    • 突尼西亞
    • UAE

KPI

  • 連接
  • 行動
    • 終端、行動寬頻、M2M
    • 預付、契約
    • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
    • 智慧型手機、非智慧型手機
  • 固定
    • 語音、寬頻、網路電視、撥接上網
    • 窄頻語音、VoBB
    • DSL、FTTH/B、電纜、BFWA、其他
  • 固定、行動語音流量
    • 發信時間,MoU
  • 收益
  • 行動
    • 服務、零售
    • 預付、契約
    • 終端、行動寬頻、M2M
    • 終端語音、通訊、資料
  • 固定
    • 服務、零售
    • 語音、寬頻、網路電視、撥接上網、BNS
    • DSL、FTTH/B、電纜、BFWA、其他
  • 行動ARPU
    • SIM、終端
    • 預付、契約
    • 終端語音、資料

目錄

摘要整理

地區預測、各國家比較

  • 對象地區
  • 市場背景
  • 收益、ARPU
  • 行動普及率
  • 行動連線
  • 智慧型手機、4G/5G
  • 行動ARPU
  • 固定服務
  • 固定寬頻
  • 主要的促進要素:中東、北非市場

各國的預測

  • 阿爾及利亞
  • 埃及
  • 伊朗
  • 伊拉克
  • 科威特
  • 摩洛哥
  • 阿曼
  • 卡達
  • 沙烏地阿拉伯
  • 突尼西亞
  • UAE

關於著者、Analysys Mason

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目錄

"Telecoms service revenue in the Middle East and North Africa will grow at a modest 0.7% CAGR between 2016 and 2022 to reach USD73 billion."

We forecast that 67.1% of total telecoms service revenue in 2022 in the Middle East and North Africa will come from mobile services. In developing markets, there is room for growth in subscriber numbers, while in more mature markets, operators should focus on value growth and investing in the digital economy.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • a 5-year forecast of more than 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for the Middle East and North Africa region and for twelve key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, which highlights similarities and differences between countries
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

COVERAGE

Geographical coverageKey performance indicators

Region modelled

  • Middle East and North Africa (MENA)

Countries modelled individually

  • Algeria

Connections

Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone

Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

Revenue

Mobile

  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Karim Yaici (Senior Analyst) leads Analysys Mason's The Middle East and Africa regional research programme. His primary areas of specialisation include operators' digital strategies, new telecoms opportunities and challenges, and consumer trends in growth markets. Prior to joining Analysys Mason, Karim was an associate analyst at Ovum, where he authored reports on mobile accessories and mobile applications. Prior to that, he worked as a research engineer in the Institute for Communication Systems and Vodafone. Karim holds an MSc in Information Systems Management from the University of Southampton and a PhD in human-4computer interaction from the University of Surrey.

Table of Contents

  • 7.Executive summary
  • 8.The telecoms service market in MENA will grow to USD73 billion in 2022, as competition increases against a backdrop of weaker economic outlook
  • 9.Telecoms retail revenue will increase by USD3.7 billion over 2016-2022, primarily driven by mobile handset data and fixed broadband services
  • 10.In most countries, the fixed market holds greater potential for growth than mobile, where revenue will be either similar to or lower than in 2016
  • 11.Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
  • 12.Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators
  • 13.Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
  • 14.Geographical coverage: We model twelve telecoms markets, which will account for 88% of telecoms service revenue in MENA in 2022
  • 15.Market context: The twelve modelled countries account for 83.3% of total population and 89.3% of telecoms service revenue in MENA in 2016
  • 16.Revenue and ARPU: Mobile and fixed data services will drive revenue growth in the region, but mobile voice revenue will continue to dominate
  • 17.Mobile penetration: Maturing markets and enforced SIM registration policies have led to a slow down in numbers of new mobile connections
  • 18.Mobile connections: 42% of all connections will be 3G by 2022, while LTE will account for nearly 31% of connections (excluding M2M)
  • 19.Smartphones and LTE: The 4G/5G user base in the region will reach 174.4 million in 2022, with growing opportunities for data monetisation
  • 20.Mobile ARPU: Growth in data and migration to postpaid connections will help to reduce the rate of decline of ARPU
  • 21.Data and revenue by generation: 4G connectivity and digital services will help to offset a slowdown in the growth of legacy services revenue
  • 22.Fixed services: Broadband market will grow in most countries, driven by upgrades to access technology and new infrastructure investments
  • 23.Fixed broadband: Household penetration will grow in all markets, driven by market competition and supported by national broadband plans
  • 24.Key drivers at a glance for each Middle East and North Africa market
  • 25.Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
  • 26.Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
  • 27.Individual country forecasts
  • 28.Iran: Lifting of sanctions will encourage investment and entry of MVNOs is expected to increase competition in the mobile market
  • 29.Iran -mobile: Adoption of smartphones and 4G services, combined with MVNO entry in 2017, will underpin future growth
  • 30.Iran -fixed: Investment in fibre and TD-LTE infrastructure will help improve service quality and expand fixed broadband reach
  • 31.Kuwait: The market will start contracting after 2018 as the fixed market will not sufficiently grow to offset mobile revenue decline
  • 32.Kuwait -mobile: Revenue growth will be hampered by market saturation and ARPU erosion, despite strong take-up of data
  • 33.Kuwait -fixed: Unclear timelines for fixed infrastructure privatisation and fibre roll-out will constrain market growth
  • 34.Oman: A third MNO will boost mobile connections, but erode market value -the outlook for fixed broadband is more positive
  • 35.Oman -mobile: Strong data revenue growth against the backdrop of increasingly challenging commercial conditions
  • 36.Oman -fixed: Increased competition will lead to voice revenue decline, while broadband will benefit from ambitious roll-out plans
  • 37.Qatar: Economic diversification and infrastructure projects should drive demand for telecoms services if the current crisis is resolved
  • 38.Qatar -mobile: Market still has potential for growth, provided that the regional blockade does not stretch beyond a few months
  • 39.Qatar -fixed: Well-developed fibre infrastructure will create opportunities for upselling broadband and content-based services
  • 40.Saudi Arabia: Market will be driven by data, but growth will be subdued because of regulatory and competitive challenges
  • 41.Saudi Arabia -mobile: Revenue contracted in 2016, but will remain largely stable over the next 5 years, due to data usage
  • 42.Saudi Arabia -fixed: Unified licensing and the government's plan to expand fibre coverage should help drive demand for broadband
  • 43.UAE: A positive overall outlook for revenue growth, despite increased market competition in the fixed and mobile markets
  • 44.UAE -mobile: Steady growth, driven by a healthy economy and operators' investment in infrastructure and digital initiatives
  • 45.UAE -fixed: Investment in infrastructure and capabilities will help operators capture opportunities beyond broadband connectivity
  • About the author and Analysys Mason
  • Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
  • Research from Analysys Mason
  • Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Middle East and North Africa, 2012-2022
  • Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, Middle East and North Africa, 2016-2022
  • Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue growth by type and country, Middle East and North Africa, 2016-2022
  • Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for Middle East and North Africa
  • Figure 5: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and next-generation access (NGA) share of fixed broadband connections by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2022
  • Figure 6: Metrics for the 12 countries modelled individually in the Middle East and North Africa, 2016
  • Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, Middle East and North Africa, 2012-2022
  • Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Middle East and North Africa, 2016-2022
  • Figure 9: Connections by type, and growth rates, Middle East and North Africa, 2016-2022
  • Figure 10: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Middle East and North Africa, 2012-2022
  • Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G, 4G and 5G share of connections, Middle East and North Africa, 2012-2022
  • Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE share of total connections (excluding M2M), Middle East and North Africa, 2016 and 2022
  • Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2012-2022
  • Figure 14: Mobile service revenue and ARPU by technology, Middle East and North Africa, 2012-2022
  • Figure 15: Data traffic and revenue per megabyte, Middle East and North Africa, 2012-2022
  • Figure 16: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, Middle East and North Africa, 2012-2022
  • Figure 17: Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2012-2022
  • Figure 18: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2016) and future trajectory (2017-2022), by country, Middle East and North Africa
  • Figure 19a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
  • Figure 19b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
  • Figure 20: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Iran, 2012-2022
  • Figure 21: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Iran, 2016-2022
  • Figure 22: Connections by type, and growth rates, Iran, 2016-2022
  • Figure 23: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Iran, 2012-2022
  • Figure 24: Mobile ARPU by type and overall mobile ARPU, Iran, 2012-2022
  • Figure 25: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Iran
  • Figure 26: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Iran, 2012-2022
  • Figure 27: Fixed ASPU by service type, Iran, 2012-2022
  • Figure 28: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Iran
  • Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Kuwait, 2012-2022
  • Figure 30: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Kuwait, 2016-2022
  • Figure 31: Connections by type, and growth rates, Kuwait, 2016-2022
  • Figure 32: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Kuwait, 2012-2022
  • Figure 33: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Kuwait, 2012-2022
  • Figure 34: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Kuwait
  • Figure 35: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Kuwait, 2012-2022
  • Figure 36: Fixed ASPU by service type, Kuwait, 2012-2022
  • Figure 37: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Kuwait
  • Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Oman, 2012-2022
  • Figure 39: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Oman, 2016-2022
  • Figure 40: Connections by type, and growth rates, Oman, 2016-2022
  • Figure 41: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Oman, 2012-
  • Figure 42: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Oman, 2012-2022
  • Figure 43: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Oman
  • Figure 44: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Oman, 2012-2022
  • Figure 45: Fixed ASPU by service type, Oman, 2012-2022
  • Figure 46: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Oman
  • Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Qatar, 2012-2022
  • Figure 48: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Qatar, 2016-2022
  • Figure 49: Connections by type, and growth rates, Qatar, 2016-2022
  • Figure 50: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Qatar, 2012-
  • Figure 51: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Qatar, 2012-2022
  • Figure 52: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Qatar
  • Figure 53: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Qatar 2012-2022
  • Figure 54: Fixed ASPU by service type, Qatar, 2012-2022
  • Figure 55: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Qatar
  • Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Saudi Arabia, 2012-2022
  • Figure 57: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Saudi Arabia, 2016-2022
  • Figure 58: Connections by type, and growth rates, Saudi Arabia, 2016-2022
  • Figure 59: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Saudi Arabia, 2012-2022
  • Figure 60: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Saudi Arabia, 2012-2022
  • Figure 61: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Saudi Arabia
  • Figure 62: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Saudi Arabia, 2012-2022
  • Figure 63: Fixed ASPU by service type, Saudi Arabia, 2012-2022
  • Figure 64: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Saudi Arabia
  • Figure 65: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), UAE, 2012-2022
  • Figure 66: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, UAE, 2016-2022
  • Figure 67: Connections by type, and growth rates, UAE, 2016-2022
  • Figure 68: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, UAE, 2012-2022
  • Figure 69: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, UAE, 2012-2022
  • Figure 70: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, UAE
  • Figure 71: Fixed penetration rates by service type, UAE, 2012-2022
  • Figure 72: Fixed ASPU by service type, UAE, 2012-2022
  • Figure 73: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, UAE
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