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市場調查報告書

北美的通訊市場:趨勢與預測 2017 - 2022年

North America Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022

出版商 Analysys Mason 商品編碼 254747
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 38 Slides
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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北美的通訊市場:趨勢與預測 2017 - 2022年 North America Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022
出版日期: 2017年09月15日 內容資訊: 英文 38 Slides
簡介

本報告提供北美通訊市場相關調查分析,提供北美整體及主要2個國家180個以上的行動·固定KPI之5年預測,彙整行動·固定服務的各類型及主要各國的趨勢,促進要素及預測前提條件的詳細分析,業者策略的概要,及行動·固定業者的主要影響和建議等相關資料

目錄

摘要整理

不同地區的預測·各國家比較

  • 地理覆蓋:在技術先進的地區,美國占電信總收入的91%
  • 市場背景:經濟展望在兩國中相對看好
  • 收入和ARPU:由於固定寬頻增長,彌補了行動市場的下滑,總收入將停滯不前
  • 行動普及:由於市場成熟,用戶群增長速度將會很慢
  • 行動連接:我們預計該地區的網絡關閉 - 由於傳統用例,2G將比3G持續更久
  • 智能手機和LTE:智能手機在北美幾乎被普遍採用
  • 行動ARPU:缺乏挑戰業者的加拿大,防止了ARPU的大幅減少
  • 資料·收益,世代別:美國的業者針對網絡中立法規廢止的推進準備
  • 固定服務:北美持續轉換為NGA,以及開始朝固定無線5G發展
  • 固定寬頻:北美中普及率達飽和,但缺乏競爭而防止了收益下滑
  • 各北美市場主要促進要素
  • 主要的促進要素:調查手法
  • 世界各國預測
  • 加拿大:移動市場成長繼續有增無減,但將來由於飽和將會放緩
  • 加拿大行動:缺乏挑戰者的行動運營商將會阻止收入下滑,但增長將會放緩
  • 加拿大固定:速度升級的銷售成功意味著持續的收入增長
  • 美國:行動市場下滑主要被固定寬頻收入的增長所抵消
  • 美國-手機:由T-Mobile推動的競爭將繼續推高ARPU
  • 美國-固定:NGA投資和競爭不足將持續推動寬頻ASPU
  • 關於作者Analysys Mason

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目錄

"Revenue in the North American telecoms market will stop growing due to a decline in the US mobile market."

Telecoms revenue in North America (NA) will be stable between 2017 and 2022. Competition in the US mobile market and the lack of competition in the US fixed market will combine to create a flat revenue trend throughout the forecast period. The Canadian telecoms market will grow overall, but due to its relative size, will not make up for the decline in US mobile revenue. This report examines key trends and drivers and provides telecoms market forecasts for the North American region and the two individual countries.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • a 5-year forecast of more than 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for NA and for the two countries in the region
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for the two countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, which highlights similarities and differences between the two countries
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

COVERAGE:

Geographical coverageKey performance indicators

Region modelled

  • North America (NA)

Countries modelled individually

  • Canada
  • USA

Connections

Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone

Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, 5G, other

Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

Revenue

Mobile

  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, business services
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Roman Orvisky (Analyst) is a member of the regional markets research team in London, contributing to the Telecoms Market Matrix, European Core Forecasts, European Country Reports and Global Telecoms Forecasts programmes. Prior to joining Analysys Mason in November 2014, he worked in the Transaction Services department of the Royal Bank of Scotland in a customer experience internship role. During his studies, Roman focused on consumer behaviour in an online context, and has experience in churn modelling in the telecoms sector, social network analysis and browsing data analysis. Roman holds a Bachelor's degree in business from Durham University, and an MSc in marketing research from the Tilburg University School of Economics and Management.

Table of Contents

  • 6. Executive summary
  • 7. Contrasting trends in fixed and mobile markets in North America combine for a stagnant revenue forecast
  • 8. Lack of competition in fixed broadband will continue to drive up prices in North America
  • 9. Revenue in the North American telecoms market will stop growing due to a decline in the US mobile market
  • 10. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets in North America
  • 11. Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators
  • 12. Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
  • 13. Geographical coverage: In a technologically advanced region, the USA accounts for 91% of total telecoms revenue
  • 14. Market context: The economic outlook is relatively positive for both countries
  • 15. Revenue and ARPU: Total revenue will be stagnant as a declining mobile market will be compensated for by growth in fixed broadband
  • 16. Mobile penetration: User base growth will be slow due to market maturity
  • 17. Mobile connections: We expect network shutdown across the region - 2G will last longer than 3G because of legacy use cases
  • 18. Smartphones and LTE: Smartphones have been almost universally adopted in North America
  • 19. Mobile ARPU: The lack of a challenger operator will prevent significant ARPU decline in Canada
  • 20. Data and revenue by generation: US operators are gearing up for the abandonment of net neutrality regulations
  • 21. Fixed services: Migration to NGA will continue in North America, and fixed-wireless 5G will come into play
  • 22. Fixed broadband: Penetration is approaching saturation in North America, but lack of competition and upselling will prevent revenue decline
  • 23. Key drivers at a glance for each of the North American markets
  • 24. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
  • 25. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
  • 26. Individual country forecasts
  • 27. Canada: Mobile market growth continues unabated, but will slow down in the future due to saturation
  • 28. Canada -mobile: The lack of a challenger mobile operator will prevent revenue decline, but growth will slow down
  • 29. Canada -fixed: Successful upselling of speed upgrades means continued revenue growth
  • 30. USA: A declining mobile market will be mostly offset by growth in fixed broadband revenue
  • 31. USA -mobile: Competition driven by T-Mobile's initiatives will continue to drive down ARPU
  • 32. USA -fixed: NGA investments and lack of competition will continue to drive up broadband ASPU
  • 33. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 34. About the authors
  • 35. About Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), North America, 2012-2022
  • Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, North America, 2016-
  • Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue growth by type and country, North America, -2022
  • Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for North America
  • Figure 5: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, North America, 2022
  • Figure 6: Metrics for the 2 countries modelled individually in North America,
  • Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, North America, 2012-2022
  • Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, North America, 2016-2022
  • Figure 9: Connections by type, and growth rates, North America, 2016-2022
  • Figure 10: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), North America, 2012-2022
  • Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G, 4G and 5G's share of connections, North America, 2012-2022
  • Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and 4G/5G's share of total connections (excluding M2M), North America, 2016 and 2022
  • Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by country, North America, 2012-2022
  • Figure 14: Mobile service revenue and ARPU by technology, North America, 2012-2022
  • Figure 15: Data traffic and revenue per megabyte, North America, 2012-2022
  • Figure 16: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, North America, 2012-2022
  • Figure 17: Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, North America, 2012-2022
  • Figure 18: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2016) and future trajectory (2017-2022), by country, North America
  • Figure 19a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
  • Figure 19b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
  • Figure 20: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Canada, 2012-2022
  • Figure 21: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Canada, 2016-2022
  • Figure 22: Connections by type, and growth rates, Canada, 2016-2022
  • Figure 23: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Canada, 2012-2022
  • Figure 24: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Canada, 2012-2022
  • Figure 25: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Canada
  • Figure 26: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Canada, 2012-2022
  • Figure 27: Fixed ASPU by service type, Canada, 2012-2022
  • Figure 28: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Canada
  • Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), USA, 2012-2022
  • Figure 30: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, USA, 2016-2022
  • Figure 31: Connections by type, and growth rates, USA, 2016-2022
  • Figure 32: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, USA, 2012-2022
  • Figure 33: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, USA, 2012-2022
  • Figure 34: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, USA
  • Figure 35: Fixed penetration rates by service type, USA, 2012-2022
  • Figure 36: Fixed ASPU by service type, USA, 2012-2022
  • Figure 37: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, USA
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