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市場調查報告書

北美的通訊市場:2017年∼2022年的趨勢與預測

North America Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022 based on 3Q 2017 data

出版商 Analysys Mason 商品編碼 254747
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 25 Slides
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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北美的通訊市場:2017年∼2022年的趨勢與預測 North America Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022 based on 3Q 2017 data
出版日期: 2018年01月05日 內容資訊: 英文 25 Slides
簡介

本報告提供北美的通訊市場相關調查分析,提供5年預測,加上趨勢,促進因素,預測的前提條件,業者策略概要,各國專題等系統性資訊。

目錄

  • 摘要整理
  • 由於美國行動市場的下滑,北美地區的電信業務收入將停滯不前
  • 少有擾亂的業者將加速在加拿大的發展
  • 地理覆蓋面:美國占地區收入總額的90%
  • 北美行動和固定市場的主要趨勢,推動因素和假設
  • 給電信業者的重要建議
  • 區域預測和跨國比較
  • 市場環境:兩國經濟預計將保持平穩增長
  • 重要的兼併,收購和市場進入
  • 北美市場關鍵推動因素一覽
  • 市場概述:美國行動市場下滑將阻止總收入增長
  • 行動:用戶群將在整個地區增長,包括預付費和後付費
  • 行動:競爭將拉低美國的ARPU
  • 行動:北美將處於新技術採用的最前沿
  • 固定:寬頻普及率由於飽和,將會緩慢增長
  • 固定:寬頻價格增長幾乎沒有放緩的跡象
  • 固定:區域壟斷/雙寡頭市場結構和銷售速度加快將繼續支持寬頻ASPU增長
  • 商務服務:通訊業者,只是佔企業軟體市場的些許的部分
  • IoT:汽車部門,IoT收益的最大的貢獻者
  • 各國預測
  • 商務服務:電信業者只會佔據一小部分企業軟體市場
  • 物聯網:汽車業務將成為物聯網收入最大的貢獻者
  • 各國預測
  • 加拿大:由於固定和行動市場的用戶基礎和ARPU增長,電信業務收入將增長
  • 加拿大:絕大多數行動連接將在2018年的4Gb上進行
  • 加拿大:缺乏破壞性的業者將會支持收入持續增長
  • 加拿大:預測變更
  • 美國:行動市場的下滑和固定市場的增長將導致電信總收入的小幅下滑
  • 美國:寬頻頻譜使用規定將允許MNO關閉傳統技術,並將重點放在4G和5G上
  • 美國:T-Mobile將繼續推動行動市場的競爭
  • 美國:預測變更
  • 預測手法
  • 關於著者和Analysys Mason

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目錄

"Telecoms revenue in North America will stagnate during the forecast period at around USD400 billion annually due to a decline in the US mobile market."

We expect fixed operators across Canada and the USA to continue upselling faster broadband connections at higher prices, as well as taking advantage of uncompetitive markets. The Canadian mobile market will continue to grow due to the absence of a challenger operator, but service revenue in the USA will decline as T-Mobile maintains its aggressive strategy.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • a 5-year forecast of more than 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for North America (NA) and for the two countries in the region
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for the two countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, which highlights similarities and differences between the two countries
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

COVERAGE:

Geographical coverageKey performance indicators

Region modelled

  • North America (NA)

Countries modelled individually

  • Canada
  • USA

Connections

Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone

Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, 5G, other

Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

Revenue

Mobile

  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, business services
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data

Table of Contents

  • 7. Executive summary
  • 8. Telecoms revenue in North America will be stagnant due to a declining US mobile market
  • 9. The lack of a disrupting operator will support faster growth in Canada
  • 10. Geographical coverage: The USA accounts for 90% of the regional revenue total
  • 11. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets in North America
  • 12. Key recommendations for telecoms operators
  • 13. Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
  • 14. Market context: Both countries' economies are expected to grow at a steady rate
  • 15. Key mergers, acquisitions, and market entries
  • 16. Key drivers at a glance for each North America market
  • 17. Market overview: A declining US mobile market will prevent total revenue growth
  • 18. Mobile: User base will grow across the region, both in prepaid and postpaid segments
  • 19. Mobile: Competition will drive down ARPU in the USA, but not in Canada
  • 20. Mobile: North America will be at the forefront of new technology adoption
  • 21. Fixed: Broadband penetration will grow slowly due to saturation
  • 22. Fixed: Broadband price growth shows few signs of slowing down
  • 23. Fixed: Regional monopolistic/duopolistic market structure and upselling to faster speeds will continue to support broadband ASPU growth
  • 24. Business services: Telecoms operators will only capture a small proportion of the enterprise software market
  • 25. IoT: The automotive segment will be the largest single contributor to IoT revenue
  • 26. Individual country forecasts
  • 27. Canada: Telecoms revenue will grow thanks to user base and ARPU growth in both fixed and mobile markets
  • 28. Canada: The overwhelming majority of mobile connections will be on 4G b 2018
  • 29. Canada: A lack of disruptive operators will support continued revenue growth
  • 30. Canada: Forecast changes
  • 31. USA: A declining mobile market and a growing fixed market will combine for a slight decline in total telecoms revenue
  • 32. USA: Lenient spectrum usage regulation will allow MNOs to shut down legacy technology and focus on 4G and 5G instead
  • 33. USA: T-Mobile will continue to drive competition in the mobile market
  • 34. USA: Forecast changes
  • 35. Methodology
  • 36. Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
  • 37. Examples of forecast input drivers
  • 38. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
  • 39. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
  • 40. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 41. About the author
  • 42. Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
  • 43. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 44. Consulting from Analysy Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1. Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue, North America, 2012-2022
  • Figure 2. Telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP growth by country, North America, 2016-2022
  • Figure 3. 4G/5G share of mobile connections and next-generation access share of fixed broadband connections by country, North America, 2016-2022
  • Figure 4. Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for North America
  • Figure 5. Metrics for the two countries modelled individually in North America, 2016
  • Figure 6. Recent and upcoming market structure changes in North America
  • Figure 7. Major forecast drivers: current situation (2016) and future trajectory (2017-2022), by country, North America
  • Figure 8. Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, North America (USD billion), 2012-2022
  • Figure 9. Mobile connections by type, North America (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 10. Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, North America, 2012-2022
  • Figure 11. Fixed connections by type, North America (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 12. Mobile connections by generation, North America (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 13. Mobile ARPI by type, North America (USD per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 14. Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), North America, 2012-2022
  • Figure 15. Mobile data traffic per connection, North America (MB month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 16. Mobile penetration by country, North America, 2012-2022
  • Figure 17. Mobile ARPI by country, North America, 2012-2022
  • Figure 18. Broadband connections by technology, North America (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 19. Fixed retail revenue by service, North America (USD billion), 2012-2022
  • Figure 20. NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, North America, 2012-2022
  • Figure 21. Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, North America (MB per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 22. Fixed broadband household penetration by country, North America, 2012-2022
  • Figure 23. Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, North America, 2012-2022
  • Figure 24. Total market revenue from business services, North America, 2012-2022
  • Figure 25. Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, North America, 2013-2022
  • Figure 26. Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Canada (CAD billion), 2012-2022
  • Figure 27. Mobile connections by type, Canada (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 28. Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Canada, 2012-2022
  • Figure 29. Fixed connections by type, Canada (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 30. 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Canada, 2012-2022
  • Figure 31. Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Canada (CAD per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 32. Mobile data traffic per connection, Canada (MB per moth), 2012-2022
  • Figure 33. Broadband d connections by technology, Canada (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 34. Total telecoms service revenue - current and previous forecasts, Canada, 2012-2022
  • Figure 35. Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, USA (USD billion), 2012-2022
  • Figure 36. Mobile connections by type, USA (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 37. Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, USA, 2012-2022
  • Figure 38. Fixed connections by type, USA (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 39. 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, USA, 2012-2022
  • Figure 40. Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, USA (USD per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 41. Mobile data traffic per connection, USA (MB per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 42. Broadband connections by technology, USA (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 43. Total telecoms service revenue - current and previous forecasts, USA 2012-2022
  • Figure 44 a. Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
  • Figure 44 b. Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (Current and future) ad impact of high scores
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