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市場調查報告書

中東與北非的通訊市場預測:中間預測更新

The Middle East and North Africa Telecoms Market: 2014 Interim Forecast Update (2013-2018)

出版商 Analysys Mason 商品編碼 234175
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 PPT and PDF (40 slides); Excel
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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中東與北非的通訊市場預測:中間預測更新 The Middle East and North Africa Telecoms Market: 2014 Interim Forecast Update (2013-2018)
出版日期: 2014年03月24日 內容資訊: 英文 PPT and PDF (40 slides); Excel
簡介

終端資訊服務及行動寬頻提供今後5年的收益成長的龐大機會,有利抵銷通訊及語音收益減少。在中東的行動電訊市場中特別是智慧型手機和行動寬頻的利用增加,持續顯示成長的徵兆。固定市場成長,因GCC各國的光纖普及率強大而受到抑制,北非在預測期間中DSL持續支配連線技術。

本報告提供中東與北非的通訊市場相關調查,全部區域及各國市場分析,行動·固定不同服務的連線數·收益的實際成果與預測等彙整資料,為您概述為以下內容。

主要的調查內容

  • 中東•北非(MENA)整體及阿爾及利亞,埃及,以色列,科威特,摩洛哥,卡達,沙烏地阿拉伯及UAE的通訊市場上最新的發展趨勢分析和那些連接•收益的影響分析
  • 舊版的預測變化之過程和理由的說明
  • 詳細的實際成果資料與預測,包含下列:
    • 行動連線數:不同設備類型(智慧型手機,其他終端,行動寬頻及M2M),付款各類型(預付•契約),及技術世代別
    • 固定寬頻連線數:各類型(電纜,DSL,FTTH以及其他)
    • 網路電視連線數•收益

對象地區

  • 阿爾及利亞
  • 埃及
  • 以色列
  • 科威特
  • 摩洛哥
  • 卡達
  • 沙烏地阿拉伯
  • UAE

對象資料

  • 行動服務
    • 市場區隔:預付•契約,商務及住宅
    • 技術世代:2G•3G•4G
    • 服務類型:終端語音,終端通訊,終端內容•資料,行動寬頻及M2M
  • 固定服務
    • 市場區隔:商務及住宅
    • 服務類型:語音 (PSTN/ISDN,VoBB),寬頻(DSL,纜線數據機,住宅用FTTB以及其他的寬頻技術) 、商務網路服務,網路電視

目錄

  • 摘要整理
  • 各地區的概要
  • 各國分析
  • 關於著者•Analysys Mason

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目錄

Handset data services and mobile broadband offer the strongest opportunities for revenue growth in the next 5 years, driven by faster adoption of smartphones across the region than anticipated.Handset data services and mobile broadband offer the strongest opportunities for revenue growth in the next 5 years, driven by faster adoption of smartphones across the region than anticipated.

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The mobile telecoms market in the Middle East continues to show signs of growth, driven by the increased use of smartphones, mobile handset data and mobile broadband. The fixed market will continue to grow, albeit at a slower pace than mobile. GCC countries will lead the region in terms of fibre roll-out, adoption, and service innovation, while DSL will remain the dominant access technology in North Africa.


This report and associated data annex provide:

  • an analysis of the latest developments in the telecoms market and assessment of their impact on connections and revenue in Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Kuwait*, Morocco, Qatar*, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, as well as the Middle East and North Africa region as a whole
  • an explanation of how and why our forecasts have changed since the previous edition, which was published in June 2013
  • detailed historical data and forecasts (for the region as a whole and for individual countries) from 2009 to 2018, including:
    • mobile connections by device type (smartphones, other handsets, mobile broadband and M2M), by payment type (prepaid and contract), and by technology generation
    • fixed broadband connections by type (cable, DSL, FTTH and other)
    • IPTV connections and revenue
  • retail and wholesale revenue split by various mobile services (voice, messaging, handset data, mobile broadband and M2M) and various fixed services (voice, broadband, business network services).

*New core countries added to the MENA forecast for the first time.

Geographical coverage

Data is provided for the MENA region as a whole and the following individual countries:

  • Algeria
  • Egypt
  • Israel
  • Kuwait
  • Morocco
  • Qatar
  • Saudi Arabia
  • UAE.

Data coverage

The data annex includes forecasts for connections as well as total and retail revenue for the fixed and mobile markets and the market overall. All revenue information is provided in the local currency unit (LCU) and US dollars.

The forecasts for connections (and sites, in the case of fixed services) and revenue are split in the following manner.

Mobile services

  • Market segment: prepaid and contract, business and residential
  • Technology generation: 2G, 3G and 4G
  • Service type: handset voice, handset messaging, handset content and data, mobile broadband and M2M
  • The three types of breakdown are performed on both retail and total services revenue, which enables us to include both ARPU and ASPU information.

Fixed services

  • Market segment: business and residential
  • Service type: voice (PSTN/ISDN and VoBB), broadband (DSL, cable modem, residential FTTB and other broadband technologies), business network services, IPTV.
  • The forecasts also include total service revenue for all fixed services, including and excluding wholesale revenue.

Table of Contents

  • 7.Executive summary
  • 8.The telecoms service market in the Middle East and North Africa will grow at a 2.9% CAGR to reach USD96 billion by 2018
  • 9.Mobile data and fixed broadband will be the services with most growth, driven by increasing smartphone penetration and Internet demand
  • 10.We have reduced our 2018 retail revenue forecasts because of a lower outlook for fixed voice, mobile broadband and business network services
  • 11.Regional forecasts and summary of revisions
  • 12.New forecast by service: telecoms service revenue will grow to USD96 billion in MENA in 2018, driven by mobile and fixed data services
  • 13.Forecast revision by service: mobile broadband revenue has been reduced to reflect the shift to smartphones for data access
  • 14.New revenue forecast by country: strong net growth in telecoms retail revenue is expected in most countries, except Egypt, Israel and Kuwait
  • 15.New forecast by country: Israel and the GCC countries will lead the MENA region in terms of smartphone and LTE penetration by 2018
  • 16.Forecast revision by country: we have reduced our CAGR forecasts for retail revenue in all modelled countries except Israel
  • 17.Key trends since our previous forecast: growth in smartphone adoption is exceeding expectations, while mobile broadband is lagging behind
  • 18.Key trends since our previous forecast: M2M growth is revised downwards, and the decline in fixed voice connections accelerates
  • 19.Key trends since our previous forecast: stronger-than-expected FTTx market growth will help offset the decline of fixed voice revenue
  • 20.Individual country forecasts
  • 21.Algeria: 3G will drive demand for mobile data services, and help maintain solid growth in the non-messaging mobile market
  • 22.Algeria: Fixed and mobile voice were more resilient than anticipated; 3G will accelerate fixed-mobile broadband substitution
  • 23.Egypt: Demand for handset data services will stimulate marginal growth, but political unrest is hampering the market
  • 24.Egypt: Political instability has caused big changes since the last forecast, and the shift to handset data usage has accelerated
  • 25.Israel: Competition and price erosion continue to hinder mobile growth, while fixed voice decline will be slower than expected
  • 26.Israel: The outlook has improved slightly since our previous forecast because of operators' efforts to slow down price erosion
  • 27.Kuwait: Mobile and fixed data services will offer greater growth opportunities, while voice and messaging revenue is set to decline
  • 28.Kuwait: Mobile data demand, supported by the recent LTE launch, will help boost revenue, while fixed broadband also shows growth
  • 29.Morocco: Voice continues to dominate the mobile market, although data services will represent a growing share of retail revenue
  • 30.Morocco: We have made changes to the outlook for LTE, handset data, mobile broadband and fixed broadband
  • 31.Qatar: High revenue CAGR for handset data will drive growth in telecoms revenue
  • 32.Qatar: Growth prospects are strong for both fixed and mobile markets, driven by ambitious plans for high-speed broadband
  • 33.Saudi Arabia: Retail revenue in MENA's largest telecoms market will grow at a 2.5% CAGR, driven by broadband and data
  • 34.Saudi Arabia: Mobile broadband and smartphone adoption exceeds expectations, while fixed broadband offsets declining voice revenue
  • 35.UAE: Retail revenue will grow at a 3.1% CAGR, led by high growth in mobile handset data, and fixed and mobile broadband
  • 36.UAE: New forecasts reflect accelerated erosion of legacy mobile services and increased adoption of smartphones and fibre
  • 37.About the author and Analysys Mason
  • 38.About the author
  • 39.About Analysys Mason
  • 40.Research from Analysys Mason
  • 41.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Summary of report coverage
  • Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Middle East and North Africa, 2009-2018
  • Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, Middle East and North Africa, 2013-2018
  • Figure 4: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue, previous and new forecasts, Middle East and North Africa, 2013 and 2018
  • Figure 5: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Middle East and North Africa, 2009-2018
  • Figure 6: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Middle East and North Africa, 2013-2018
  • Figure 7: Connections by type, and growth rates, Middle East and North Africa, 2013-2018
  • Figure 8: CAGRs for telecoms retail revenue by service type, previous and new forecasts, Middle East and North Africa, 2013-2018
  • Figure 9: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2013 and 2018
  • Figure 10: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), Middle East and North Africa, 2013 and 2018
  • Figure 11: CAGRs for telecoms retail revenue by country, previous and new forecasts, Middle East and North Africa, 2013-2018
  • Figure 12a-c: Summary of major changes compared with our June 2013 forecast for the Middle East and North Africa
  • Figure 13: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Algeria, 2009-2018
  • Figure 14: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Algeria, 2013-2018
  • Figure 15: Connections by type, and growth rates, Algeria, 2013-2018
  • Figure 16: Summary of major changes compared with our June 2013 forecast for Algeria
  • Figure 17: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Egypt, 2009-2018
  • Figure 18: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Egypt, 2013-2018
  • Figure 19: Connections by type, and growth rates, Egypt, 2013-2018
  • Figure 20: Summary of major changes compared with our June 2013 forecast for Egypt
  • Figure 21: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Israel, 2009-2018
  • Figure 22: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Israel, 2013-2018
  • Figure 23: Connections by type, and growth rates, Israel, 2013-2018
  • Figure 24: Summary of major changes compared with our June 2013 forecast for Israel
  • Figure 25: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Kuwait, 2009-2018
  • Figure 26: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Kuwait, 2013-2018
  • Figure 27: Connections by type, and growth rates, Kuwait, 2013-2018
  • Figure 28: Summary of major drivers for our market forecast for Kuwait
  • Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Morocco, 2009-2018
  • Figure 30: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Morocco, 2013-2018
  • Figure 31: Connections by type, and growth rates, Morocco, 2013-2018
  • Figure 32: Summary of major changes compared with our June 2013 forecast for Morocco
  • Figure 33: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Qatar, 2009-2018
  • Figure 34: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Qatar, 2013-2018
  • Figure 35: Connections by type, and growth rates, Qatar, 2013-2018
  • Figure 36: Summary of major drivers for our market forecast for Qatar
  • Figure 37: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Saudi Arabia, 2009-2018
  • Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Saudi Arabia, 2013-2018
  • Figure 39: Connections by type, and growth rates, Saudi Arabia, 2013-2018
  • Figure 40: Summary of major changes compared with our June 2013 forecast for Saudi Arabia
  • Figure 41: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, UAE, 2009-2018
  • Figure 42: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, UAE, 2013-2018
  • Figure 43: Connections by type, and growth rates, UAE, 2013-2018
  • Figure 44: Summary of major changes compared with our June 2013 forecast for the UAE
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