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市場調查報告書

撒哈拉以南的非洲通訊市場預測:2014-2019年

Sub-Saharan Africa Telecoms Market: Interim Forecast Update 2014-2019

出版商 Analysys Mason 商品編碼 230717
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 23 Slides
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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撒哈拉以南的非洲通訊市場預測:2014-2019年 Sub-Saharan Africa Telecoms Market: Interim Forecast Update 2014-2019
出版日期: 2015年03月12日 內容資訊: 英文 23 Slides
簡介

撒哈拉以南非洲 (SSA) 的通訊業務收益預測將從2013年的450億美元以5.5%的年複合成長率,擴大到2019年達到620億美元的規模。預測行動服務收益將格外大幅成長,年複合成長率預測達到6.3%,但預測期間的固定收益由於許多國家基礎設施不足和競爭的不足,預測幾乎持平。

本報告提供撒哈拉以南非洲的通訊市場相關調查,提供您100件以上的行動·固定KPI之5年預測,來自8個國家的各國資料與分析,基於最新資料的預測修正,及上回預測的變更相關說明,並彙整到2019年前的預測等資料。

目錄

摘要整理

各國預測

  • 象牙海岸共和國:通訊業務收益在行動語音·終端資訊服務推動下,預測2019年之前將達到1兆1,000億非洲金融共同體法郎(XOF)
  • 迦納:由於預計行動語音·訊息收益將比預測更快速下滑,收益預測向下修正
  • 肯亞:由於競爭激烈化行動語音收益將比預測更快速惡化,LTE預測向下修正
  • 奈及利亞:2018年的業務收益沒有變化 - 行動語音成長遲緩拉低了固定寬頻的向上修正
  • 南非:MTR的削減影響行動語音收益預測,此外由於LTE引進頻譜有限而減速
  • 蘇丹:收益預測沒有變更,但不良的宏觀經濟情形威脅行動市場成長
  • 坦尚尼亞:由於行動語音·固定寬頻收益成長率縮小,收益預測向下修正
  • 烏干達:預測沒有變更 - 業務收益在終端資訊服務的推動下,預測2019年之前將達到4兆烏干達先令 (UGX)

著者·Analysys Mason

圖表

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目錄

Sub-Saharan Africa's telecoms market will generate USD62 billion in 2019 and offers strong growth opportunities, mostly in the mobile segment.

The telecoms service market in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) will grow at a 5.5% CAGR to reach USD62 billion in 2019, up from USD45 billion in 2013. Mobile service revenue will be particularly strong and will grow at a 6.3% CAGR, but fixed revenue will be nearly stable during the period because of poor infrastructure and lack of competition in most countries. Mobile data services have more growth potential than voice, driven by a growing demand for Internet services, increasing affordability of devices, and operators' plans to roll out faster networks.


This report provides:

  • an interim update of our 5-year forecast of more than 100 mobile and fixed KPIs for SSA
  • data for, and analysis of, eight individual countries, including Côte d'Ivoire for the first time
  • revised forecasts based on the latest available data, which covers the period to June 2014
  • an explanation of the significant changes in this edition, compared with our previous forecasts that were published in July 2014
  • an extension of the forecast period to 2019.

COVERAGE

Geographical coverageMajor KPIs 

Regions modelled

  • Sub-Saharan Africa

Connections
Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone

Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTH/B, cable, BFWA, other

Revenue
Mobile

  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS
  • DSL, FTTH/B, cable, BFWA, other

 

Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice

Countries not modelled individually, but modelled as part of the region as a whole

  • Angola
  • Benin
  • Botswana
  • Burkina Faso
  • Burundi
  • Cameroon
  • Cape Verde
  • Central African Republic
  • Chad
  • Comoros
  • Congo (Democratic Republic of)
  • Congo (Republic of)
  • Djibouti
  • Equatorial Guinea
  • Eritrea
  • Ethiopia
  • Gabon
  • Gambia
  • Guinea
  • Guinea-Bissau
  • Lesotho
  • Liberia
  • Madagascar
  • Malawi
  • Mali
  • Mauritania
  • Mauritius
  • Mayotte
  • Mozambique
  • Namibia
  • Niger
  • Réunion
  • Rwanda
  • São Tomé and Principe
  • Senegal
  • Seychelles
  • Sierra Leone
  • Somalia
  • Saint Helena
  • Swaziland
  • Togo
  • Zambia and Zimbabwe

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Mpho Moyo (Analyst) is an Analyst for our The Middle East and Africa regional research programme, and her work focuses on Sub-Saharan Africa markets. Her primary areas of specialisation include telecoms market developments, mobile money, operator strategies, regulation, policy and pricing analysis. Prior to joining Analysys Mason, Mpho was a researcher at Research ICT Africa, where she co-authored reports on next-generation backbone infrastructure, universal access strategies, telecoms sector performance in South Africa and comparative telecoms reports in 16 African countries. Earlier in her career, she worked as Research Analyst at Frost & Sullivan. Mpho holds a Masters degree in Social Science (International Relations) from the University of Cape Town; an Honours degree in International Relations from the University of Cape Town and a Bachelor of Social Science in Politics, Philosophy and Economics from the University of Cape Town.

Karim Yaici (Senior Analyst) leads Analysys Mason's The Middle East and Africa regional research programme. His primary areas of specialisation include operator strategies, telecoms market developments and consumer trends in growth markets. Prior to joining Analysys Mason, Karim was an associate analyst at Informa Telecoms & Media, where he authored reports on mobile accessories and mobile applications. Prior to that, he worked as a research engineer in the Centre for Communication Systems Research (CCSR) and Vodafone. Karim holds an MSc in Information Systems Management from the University of Southampton and a PhD in human-computer interaction from the University of Surrey.

Table of Contents

  • 5. Executive summary
  • 6. Sub-Saharan Africa's telecoms market offers strong growth opportunities, mostly in mobile - total service revenue will reach USD62 billion by 2019
  • 7. Handset data and mobile voice services will account for 94% of retail revenue growth between 2013 and 2019
  • 8. Smartphones will account for 29% of handsets in the region by 2019 because LTE will be limited to high-value users, except in South Africa
  • 9. Key regional changes since our previous forecast: We have revised down our revenue forecasts because of currency depreciation
  • 10. Forecast revision: Revenue revised down in 2013 and 2018, mainly due to currency fluctuations in South Africa, but growth is almost unchanged
  • 11. Individual country forecasts
  • 12. Côte d'Ivoire: Telecoms service revenue will reach XOF1.1 trillion by 2019, driven by mobile voice and handset data services
  • 13. Ghana: Revenue forecast revised down because mobile voice and messaging revenue will decline faster than expected
  • 14. Kenya: Strong competition is eroding mobile voice revenue faster than expected and we revised down our LTE forecast
  • 15. Nigeria: Service revenue in 2018 is unchanged - slower mobile voice growth offset our upward revision of fixed broadband
  • 16. South Africa: MTR cuts are affecting mobile voice revenue forecasts and LTE adoption is slow because spectrum is limited
  • 17. Sudan: Revenue forecast unchanged, but negative macroeconomic conditions may threaten growth of the mobile market
  • 18. Tanzania: Revenue forecast revised down because we reduced rates of mobile voice and fixed broadband revenue growth
  • 19. Uganda: Our forecast remains unchanged - service revenue will exceed UGX4 trillion by 2019, driven by handset data services
  • 20. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 21. About the authors
  • 22. About the authors
  • 23. About Analysys Mason
  • 24. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 25. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Summary of report coverage
  • Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2009-2019
  • Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013-2019
  • Figure 4: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013 and 2019
  • Figure 5: Summary of major changes compared with our July 2014 forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa
  • Figure 6: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue, previous and new forecasts, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013 and 2018
  • Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013-2018
  • Figure 8: Connections by type, and growth rates, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013-2018
  • Figure 9: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Côte d'Ivoire, 2009-2019
  • Figure 10: Summary of key telecoms market drivers and assumptions, Côte d'Ivoire
  • Figure 11: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Ghana, 2009-2019
  • Figure 12: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Ghana
  • Figure 13: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Kenya, 2009-2019
  • Figure 14: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Kenya
  • Figure 15: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Nigeria, 2009-2019
  • Figure 16: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Nigeria
  • Figure 17: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, South Africa, 2009-2019
  • Figure 18: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, South Africa
  • Figure 19: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Sudan, 2009-2019
  • Figure 20: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Sudan
  • Figure 21: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Tanzania, 2009-2019
  • Figure 22: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Tanzania
  • Figure 23: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Uganda, 2009-2019
  • Figure 24: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Uganda
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