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市場調查報告書

撒哈拉以南非洲的通訊市場:中間預測更新

Sub-Saharan Africa Telecoms Market: Interim Forecast Update 2016-2021

出版商 Analysys Mason 商品編碼 230717
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 23 Slides
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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撒哈拉以南非洲的通訊市場:中間預測更新 Sub-Saharan Africa Telecoms Market: Interim Forecast Update 2016-2021
出版日期: 2017年03月08日 內容資訊: 英文 23 Slides
簡介

撒哈拉以南非洲地區的通訊服務市場預計從2016年的455億美元,到2021年以541億美元的規模成長。

本報告提供撒哈拉以南非洲地區的通訊服務市場調查,地區整體及主要國的各種市場資料的更新,競爭環境、法律制度的變化,宏觀經濟展望的變化,市場新發展等彙整資料。

調查內容

  • 對象地區
    • 撒哈拉以南非洲
  • 個別調查對象國家
    • 喀麥隆
    • 象牙海岸共和國
    • 迦納
    • 肯亞
    • 奈及利亞
    • 盧安達
    • 南非
    • 蘇丹
    • 坦尚尼亞
    • 烏干達
    • 尚比亞
  • 其他調查對象國家
    • 安哥拉
    • 貝南共和國
    • 波札那共和國
    • 布吉納法索
    • 布隆迪
    • 佛得角
    • 中非共和國
    • 查德
    • 葛摩聯盟
    • 剛果共和國
    • 剛果民主共和國
    • 吉布地
    • 赤道幾內亞
    • 厄利垂亞
    • 衣索比亞
    • 加彭
    • 甘比亞
    • 幾內亞
    • 幾內亞比索
    • 賴索托王國
    • 賴比瑞亞
    • 馬達加斯加
    • 馬拉威
    • 馬利共和國
    • 茅利塔尼亞
    • 模里西斯
    • 馬約特
    • 莫三比克
    • 納米比亞
    • 尼日
    • 法屬留尼旺島
    • 盧安達
    • 聖圖美島
    • 塞內加爾
    • 塞席爾
    • 獅子山共和國
    • 索馬利亞
    • 聖赫勒拿
    • 南蘇丹
    • 史瓦濟蘭王國
    • 多哥
  • 連線數
    • 行動
      • 終端、行動寬頻、IoT
      • 預付、契約
      • 2G、3G、4G、5G
      • 智慧型手機、非智慧型手機
    • 固定
      • 語音、寬頻、網路電視、撥接上網
      • 窄頻語音、VoBB
      • DSL、FTTH/B、電纜、BFWA、其他
    • 固定、行動語音流量
      • 發信時間、MoU
  • 收益
    • 行動
      • 服務、零售
      • 預付、契約為基礎的
      • 終端、行動寬頻、IoT
      • 終端語音、通訊、資料
    • 固定
      • 服務、零售
      • 語音、寬頻、網路電視、撥接上網、BNS
      • DSL、FTTH/B、電纜、BFWA、其他等
    • 行動ARPU
      • SIM、終端
      • 預付、契約
      • 終端語音、資料

本網頁內容可能與最新版本有所差異。詳細情況請與我們聯繫。

目錄

"Mobile services will account for 86.2% of the telecoms service revenue in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2021."

Sub-Saharan Africa's (SSA's) telecoms service market will be worth USD54.1 billion in 2021, up from USD45.5 billion in 2016. Retail revenue will account for 92.7% of this (USD50.2 billion), while wholesale revenue will account for the remaining share of telecoms service revenue.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • an interim update of our 5-year forecast (Sub-Saharan Africa telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2016-2021, published in October 2016) of more than 175 mobile and fixed KPIs for SSA as a whole and for 11 key countries
  • an explanation of the significant changes in this edition, compared with our previous forecasts.

Revisions to our previous forecasts occurred mainly for the following reasons:

  • market developments - based on recent market events and latest reported operator and regulator data (2Q 2016)
  • changes to the competitive and regulatory environment
  • changes to the macroeconomic outlook and exchange rates used to derive revenue in constant US dollars
  • changes to historical data because of newly available information.

COVERAGE

Geographical coverageKey performance indicators

Region modelled

  • Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)

Countries modelled individually

  • Cameroon
  • Côte d'Ivoire
  • Ghana
  • Kenya
  • Nigeria
  • Rwanda
  • South Africa
  • Sudan
  • Tanzania
  • Uganda
  • Zambia

Countries not modelled individually,
but modelled as part of the region as a whole

  • Angola
  • Benin
  • Botswana
  • Burkina Faso
  • Burundi
  • Cape Verde
  • Central African Republic
  • Chad
  • Comoros
  • Congo (Brazzaville)
  • Democratic Republic of Congo
  • Djibouti
  • Equatorial Guinea
  • Eritrea
  • Ethiopia
  • Gabon
  • The Gambia
  • Guinea
  • Guinea-Bissau
  • Lesotho
  • Liberia
  • Madagascar
  • Malawi
  • Mali
  • Mauritania
  • Mauritius
  • Mayotte
  • Mozambique
  • Namibia
  • Niger
  • Réunion
  • Rwanda
  • São Tomé and Principe
  • Senegal
  • Seychelles
  • Sierra Leone
  • Somalia
  • Saint Helena
  • South Sudan
  • Swaziland
  • Togo

Connections

Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone

Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

Revenue

Mobile

  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Karim Yaici (Senior Analyst) leads Analysys Mason's The Middle East and Africa regional research programme. His primary areas of specialisation include operators' digital strategies, new telecoms opportunities and challenges, and consumer trends in growth markets. Prior to joining Analysys Mason, Karim was an associate analyst at Ovum, where he authored reports on mobile accessories and mobile applications. Prior to that, he worked as a research engineer in the Institute for Communication Systems and Vodafone. Karim holds an MSc in Information Systems Management from the University of Southampton and a PhD in human-computer interaction from the University of Surrey.

Julia Martusewicz-Kulinska (Senior Analyst) is a member of the regional markets research team, contributing mainly to the European Core Forecasts, Telecoms Market Matrix and European Country Reports programmes. Prior to joining Analysys Mason, she worked for the Polish national regulatory authority as the head of the Research Division, where she was responsible for telecoms market research, and as the leader of the Telecommunications Market Analysis Department, which was accountable for co-operation between the regulatory authority and the Information Society and Media DG of the European Commission. Julia has also worked as a research analyst with Frost & Sullivan's Information and Communication Technologies Unit, specialising in Communications Services, and as a Competition Analysis Section Head for ictQATAR. Julia holds an MSc in Econometrics from the University of Lodz, as well as diplomas in Digital Telecommunication and European Integration.

Table of Contents

  • 5.Executive summary and regional forecasts
  • 6.Telecoms service revenue in SSA will grow at a 3.5% CAGR during 2016-2021 to USD54.1 billion amidst macroeconomic challenges
  • 7.Smartphones and 4G/5G: South Africa will have the highest 4G and smartphone share of handsets by 2021 -at 26.5% and 61.5%, respectively
  • 8.Fixed services: Broadband will experience strong growth from a small base, with wireless access retaining the largest share through 2021
  • 9.Key regional changes since our previous forecast: Smartphone and handset data will grow quickly; inclusion of new SA fixed broadband data
  • 10.Forecast revision: Mobile and fixed data services will be the main drivers of revenue growth, but mobile voice revenue will continue to dominate
  • 11.Individual country forecasts
  • 12.Ghana: Mobile handset data revenue will grow stronger than last forecasted due to rising 3G/4G coverage and smartphone take-up
  • 13.Kenya: Demand for smartphones and 4G services will be stronger-than-expected; cable will continue to dominate the fixed market
  • 14.Nigeria: Mobile subscriber growth will be more modest than last forecasted; handset data will benefit from recent LTE launches
  • 15.South Africa: Mobile still has growth potential, while fibre is becoming accessible to many households thanks to investment
  • 16.Tanzania: The expansion of LTE networks and rising smartphone take-up will help mobile handset data revenue to grow
  • 17.Uganda: Mobile data revenue will increase faster due to more high-tech demand, but competition will drive overall ARPU down
  • 18.About the author and Analysys Mason
  • 19.About the authors
  • 20.About Analysys Mason
  • 21.Research from Analysys Mason
  • 22.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Sub-Saharan Africa, 2011-2021
  • Figure 2: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and mobile 4G/5G share of total mobile connections (excluding M2M), Sub-Saharan Africa, 2015 and 2021
  • Figure 3: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2011-2021
  • Figure 4: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa
  • Figure 5: Telecoms retail revenue forecast by service type and total service revenue, previous and new forecasts, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2016 and 2021
  • Figure 6: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2015 and 2021
  • Figure 7: Connections by type, and growth rates, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2015 and 2021
  • Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Ghana, 2011-2021
  • Figure 9: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Ghana
  • Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Kenya, 2011-2021
  • Figure 11: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Kenya
  • Figure 12: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Nigeria, 2011-2021
  • Figure 13: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Nigeria
  • Figure 14: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, South Africa, 2011-2021
  • Figure 15: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, South Africa
  • Figure 16: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Tanzania, 2011-2021
  • Figure 17: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Tanzania
  • Figure 18: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Uganda, 2011-2021
  • Figure 19: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Uganda
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