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市場調查報告書

全球無線網路流量:預測及分析

Wireless Network Traffic Worldwide: Forecasts and Analysis 2014-2019

出版商 Analysys Mason 商品編碼 196804
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 PPT and PDF (41 slides); Excel
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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全球無線網路流量:預測及分析 Wireless Network Traffic Worldwide: Forecasts and Analysis 2014-2019
出版日期: 2014年10月15日 內容資訊: 英文 PPT and PDF (41 slides); Excel
簡介

全球行動數據量增加率預測2014年到2019年將以42.5%的年複合成長率成長,低於2013∼2018年47.1%的預測。

本報告提供全球無線網路流量的相關調查,提供8個地區及主要26個國家無線資料流量的5年預測,資料流量的主要趨勢·促進要素·阻礙要素分析,彙整無線網路的未來容量之啟用和供給其容量的成本評估,私人·公共利用的趨勢及其對行動·Wi-Fi連接利用的影響概要等資料,為您概述為以下內容。

103+41

目錄

執行摘要

市場成長的促進要素·阻礙要素

  • 從供給面來考察行動數據流量的成長率,依然受到很大的限制
  • 需求方面的複雜因素也限制了行動數據流量的成長
  • 行動數據流量的成長基本上受到代替固定行動的高成本限制
  • 美國的行動數據流量成長率超過其他已發展的市場
  • 行動數據成長率的減速在大部分先進亞太地區經濟國家發生、其他

主要的預測結果

  • 個人設備方面熱門的SIM數到2016年前將超過全球人口
  • 行動數據流量的成長預測將依不同地區而不同,概括來說先進市場普遍皆低
  • 智慧型手機將取代其他裝置成為wi-Fi的轉換發射器
  • 終端上平均行動數據利用的成長在已發展市場中預測將降到年度30%
  • 平板電腦以及其他中型螢幕設備持續是行動流量混合的一小部分、其他

市場定義

關於著者· Analysys Mason

圖表

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目錄

Mobile traffic growth will be fundamentally constrained by the high cost of fixed-mobile substitution.

Operators, vendors, policy makers and regulators look to traffic forecasts to help inform future-looking decisions. This report summarises the demand-side drivers and the supply-side constraints that apply to mobile (cellular) data traffic, and examines how fixed and Wi-Fi data usage simultaneously complements and disrupts the mobile broadband ecosystem.


This report presents:

  • 5-year forecasts of wireless data traffic worldwide, in eight regions and 26 selected countries
  • analyses the key trends in, and drivers and inhibitors of, data traffic
  • assesses the enablers of future capacity on wireless networks and the cost of supplying that capacity
  • analyses the trends in private and public usage, and their effect on the use of mobile and Wi-Fi connectivity.

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE

Data is provided for the following regions.

  • North America
  • Western Europe
  • Central and Eastern Europe
  • Developed Asia-Pacific
  • Emerging Asia-Pacific
  • Latin America
  • Middle East and North Africa
  • Sub-Saharan Africa

Data is provided for the following 26 selected countries.

  • Australia
  • Bangladesh
  • Brazil
  • China
  • France
  • Germany
  • Hong Kong
  • India
  • Indonesia
  • Italy
  • Japan
  • Malaysia
  • Mexico
  • Pakistan
  • Poland
  • Russia
  • Saudi Arabia
  • Singapore
  • South Korea
  • Spain
  • Taiwan
  • Thailand
  • Turkey
  • UAE
  • UK
  • USA

DATA COVERAGE

The following major KPIs are included in the data annex that accompanies this report.

Mobile data

Total volume and average usage for:

  • handsets
  • mid-screen devices
  • USB modems and routers
  • M2M and smart wearables.

 

Traffic split by:

  • public and private usage
  • median usage per smartphone
  • downstream and upstream

Wi-Fi data

Total volume and average usage for:

  • handsets
  • mid-screen devices, split by mobile-connected and Wi-Fi-only devices
  • laptops (public Wi-Fi connectivity only).

 

Traffic split by public and private usage.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Rupert Wood (Principal Analyst) is the lead analyst for Analysys Mason's Fixed Networks research programme. His primary areas of specialisation include next-generation networks, long-term industry strategy and forecasting the dynamics of convergence and substitution across fixed and mobile platforms. Rupert regularly contributes to the international press on a wide range of telecoms subjects and has been quoted by The Times, The Economist, Business Week, Telecommunications Online and La Tribune. Rupert has a PhD from the University of Cambridge, where he was a Lecturer before joining Analysys Mason.

Table of Contents

  • 6. Executive summary
  • 7. Our forecasts indicate that the CAGR of mobile data volume will be 42.5% worldwide for 2014-2019, and 47.1% for 2013-2018
  • 8. Growth rates in mobile data traffic in most countries fell in 2013, but there were significant exceptions
  • 9. What we have changed since our last analysis
  • 10. Drivers and inhibitors
  • 11. Mobile data traffic growth is still highly constrained by supply-side considerations
  • 12. Demand-side complications can also limit the growth of mobile data traffic
  • 13. Mobile data traffic growth is fundamentally constrained by the high cost of fixed-mobile substitution
  • 14. The rate of mobile data traffic growth in the USA exceeded that of other developed markets
  • 15. The slow down in the rate of growth in mobile data has been very marked in the most advanced Asia-Pacific economies
  • 16. Volumes of mobile data traffic continue to grow at a relatively slow rate in Europe
  • 17. What do the leading markets tell us
  • 18. New investment in fixed networks will slow mobile traffic growth in middle-income markets
  • 19. China and India: a comparison of mobile data usage
  • 20. Key forecast results
  • 21. The number of active SIMs in personal devices will outstrip the world's population by 2016
  • 22. Mobile data traffic growth will vary between regions and, in general, will be lower in developed markets
  • 23. Smartphones will displace other devices as hubs for personal Wi-Fi
  • 24. We forecast that growth in average mobile data usage on handsets will settle to 30% per year in developed markets
  • 25. Tablets and other mid-screen devices will continue to be a small part of the mobile traffic mix
  • 26. Tablets and smartphones will constitute nearly half of all fixed data traffic in developed economies by 2019
  • 27. M2M and smart wearable SIMs will account for 2% of mobile data traffic by 2019, but most smart wearables will be tethered
  • 28. By 2019, 13% of SIM-enabled devices will be 4G and these will generate 79% of mobile data traffic
  • 29. The divergence between median and mean usage and the asymmetry of usage are both related to video consumption
  • 30. By 2019, the volume of Wi-Fi traffic generated by handsets and tablets will be over seven times higher than mobile traffic
  • 31. Public Wi-Fi is driven by different strategic aims, but its share of total traffic is usually quite modest
  • 32. Market definition
  • 33. Data sources and methodology
  • 34. Definition of geographical regions [1]
  • 35. Definition of geographical regions [2]
  • 36. About the author and Analysys Mason
  • 37. About the author
  • 38. About Analysys Mason
  • 39. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 40. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Summary of report coverage
  • Figure 2: Mobile data traffic, developed and emerging markets, 2012-2018 (2013 forecast) and 2012-2019 (2014 forecast)
  • Figure 3: Growth in mobile data traffic, by region, 2012-2013
  • Figure 4: Growth in mobile data traffic, by country, 2011, 2012 and 2013
  • Figure 5: Mobile network capacity growth, 2014-2019
  • Figure 6: Hours not spent working or travelling, average mobile data usage per capita, 2013
  • Figure 7: Mobile data traffic, USA, 2H 2009-2H 2012 and 2013
  • Figure 8: Annual rate of growth in mobile data traffic, selected developed markets, Asia-Pacific, 2H 2010-1H 2014
  • Figure 9: Mobile data usage per capita per month, selected developed markets, Asia-Pacific, 2H 2009-1H 2014
  • Figure 10: Annual rate of growth for mobile data traffic, selected countries, Europe, 1H 2010-1H 2014
  • Figure 11: Investment and fixed-mobile convergence
  • Figure 12: Average Internet usage and GDP per capita, by region and Romania, 2013
  • Figure 13: Mobile data usage per 3G/4G SIM per month, China and India, 2012 and 2013
  • Figure 14: Mobile and Wi-Fi metrics, China Mobile, 2012, 2013 and 1H 2014
  • Figure 15: Mobile connections, by type, worldwide, 2011-2019
  • Figure 16: Mobile connections (excluding M2M), by device generation, worldwide, 2011-2019
  • Figure 17: Mobile data traffic growth multiples, by region, 2013-2019
  • Figure 18: Mobile data traffic, by region, 2012-2019
  • Figure 19: Mobile data traffic growth multiples, by device type, 2013-2019
  • Figure 20: Mobile data traffic, by device type, worldwide, 2012-2019
  • Figure 21: Average mobile data usage per 3G/4G handset SIM, selected developed markets, 2013
  • Figure 22: Average mobile data usage per 3G/4G handset SIM by handset technology generation, developed markets, 2012-2019
  • Figure 23: Mid-screen devices' share of mobile data traffic, and mobile networks' share of mid-screen device traffic, developed markets, 2012-2019
  • Figure 24: Smartphone and mid-screen devices' share of fixed data traffic, developed markets, 2011-2019
  • Figure 25: Median data usage per smartphone by network type and smartphone screen size (n = 1588)
  • Figure 26: Mobile data traffic, by M2M and smart wearable SIMs, worldwide, 2014-2019
  • Figure 27: 4G devices' share of mobile data traffic, by region, 2011-2019
  • Figure 28: Mobile data traffic share by device and network generation, USA, 3Q 2013
  • Figure 29: Median 3G/4G handset usage as a proportion of mean usage, worldwide, 2011-2019
  • Figure 30: Mobile data traffic share by type of network connection, worldwide, 2011-2019
  • Figure 31: Wireless data traffic by device type, and proportion generated in a private location, worldwide, 2013-2019
  • Figure 32: Regional breakdown used in this report [1]
  • Figure 33: Regional breakdown used in this report [2]
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