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市場調查報告書

高壓、超高壓變壓器 - 美國市場,裝機率,供應商:分析與預測

High And Extra High Voltage Transformers - The Most Critical U.S. Electrical Infrastructure Component-Risk And Impact Of Solar Storms & Emp Attacks - U.S. Market, Installed Base And Suppliers: 2015-2020 Analysis And Forecasts

出版商 Amadee & Company, Inc. 商品編碼 357707
出版日期 內容資訊 英文
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高壓、超高壓變壓器 - 美國市場,裝機率,供應商:分析與預測 High And Extra High Voltage Transformers - The Most Critical U.S. Electrical Infrastructure Component-Risk And Impact Of Solar Storms & Emp Attacks - U.S. Market, Installed Base And Suppliers: 2015-2020 Analysis And Forecasts
出版日期: 2016年05月11日 內容資訊: 英文
簡介

本報告提供美國的高壓、超高壓變壓器 市場相關調查分析,太陽風、電磁脈衝攻擊的風險和影響相關的系統性資訊。

簡介

  • 報告的目的
  • 調查手法和資訊來源
  • 統計相關註解

重要基礎設施防護

  • 現狀
  • 總統政策指令 (PPD-21)
  • 國家基礎設施防護計劃 (NIPP) 的演進
  • 主要概念
  • 重要基礎設施
  • 風險環境
  • 策略性國家風險評估
  • 政策環境
  • 重要基礎設施部門等

美國的能源部門

  • 美國的能源部門的資產
  • 電力
  • 發電
  • 供電、配電、控制系統
  • 供電線
  • 供電、配電變電站
  • 控制中心
  • 配電線
  • 控制系統等

美國的電力系統

  • 全球最大的整合機器
  • 多樣的生態系統
  • 廣泛的技術差距
  • 電源供給系統組件
  • 可靠性的問題
  • 動態控制
  • 系統保護
  • 系統互相連接等

高壓變壓器

  • 定義
  • 高壓變壓器的終端用戶
  • 平均安裝年數
  • 電力網的高壓變壓器
  • 高壓變壓器的功能
  • 美國的電力系統的電壓管理
  • 高壓變壓器的物理的特性
  • 高壓變壓器的製造
  • 高壓變壓器的成本等

影響力強的低頻率的現象

  • 北美的最重要基礎設施
  • 影響力強的低頻率的現象
  • HILF風險等

太陽風

  • 概要
  • 太陽週期
  • 黑點週期和磁暴等

電磁脈衝攻擊

  • 電磁脈衝
  • 核電磁脈衝
  • 無(非)核武器電磁脈衝等
  • ■美國的高壓、超高壓變壓器 裝機率
  • 綜合裝機率
  • 345 kV
  • 450∼525 kV
  • 765 kV

美國的供電基礎設施的投資趨勢

  • 美國的供電系統所扮演的角色和物理特性
  • 供電投資的成果與預測
  • 供電 vs. 其他的電力公共事業投資等

美國的高壓、超高壓變壓器 市場

  • 市場區隔
  • 美國的電力公司變壓器 生產:各等級、額定功率電壓
  • 美國的電力公司變壓器 生產:各額定功率電壓
  • 美國的電力公司變壓器 進口:各等級、額定功率電壓
  • 美國的電力公司變壓器 進口:各額定功率電壓
  • 美國的電力公司變壓器 出口:各等級、額定功率電壓
  • 美國的電力公司變壓器 出口:各額定功率電壓等

企業簡介

  • ABB Ltd
  • Delta Star, Inc.
  • EFACEC Engenharia, S.A
  • Hyundai Power Transformers USA
  • Mitsubishi Electric Power Products Inc.
  • Pennsylvania Transformer Technology Inc.
  • SPX Corporation
  • Virginia Transformer Corp.

圖表

目錄

The objective of this report is to examine the U.S. market for High and Extra High Voltage Transformers in terms of the risk and impact of Solar Storms and EMP Attacks.

The thesis of this report is that the U.S. is not prepared in the event of a major Solar Storm or EMP attack to quickly restore the electric grid, due to its inability to replace High and Extra High Voltage transformers.

High and Extra High Voltage transformers are the most critical component of the U.S. electrical infrastructure.

There are thousands of High Voltage transformers installed in the United States today, but only a small number of these are very large units rated 345 kV and above.

The market for these transformers is very small and imports accounted for most of U.S. consumption of these products in 2015.

Further increasing the risk, there are only a few Extra High Voltage transformers available as spares.

Finally, there are only a small number of U.S companies still producing High and Extra High Voltage transformers. The other suppliers are foreign companies operating U.S. plants.

In other words, the U.S. can no longer supply most of its High and Extra High Voltage transformer needs, and if there was a major Solar Storm or EMP Attack, there are only enough spares to replace a small percent of the installed base.

As a result, in the event of a major Geomagnetic Storm or EMP Attack, the U.S. will not be able to restore its electric grid for months to years.

Key information presented in this report includes analysis of:

  • Critical Infrastructure Protection.
  • U.S. Energy Sector.
  • U.S. Electric Power System.
  • High Voltage Transformers.
  • High-Impact, Low-Frequency Events.
  • Solar Storms.
  • EMP Attacks.
  • U.S. Extra High Voltage Transformer Installed Base.
  • Investment Trends in U.S. Transmission Infrastructure.
  • U.S. High and Extra High Voltage Transformer Market.
  • Profiles of U.S. based producers of High and Extra High Voltage transformers.

Table of Contents

INTRODUCTION

  • Report Objectives
  • Methodology and Sources
  • Statistical Notes

CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE PROTECTION

  • Current Status
  • Presidential Policy Directive 21
  • 2009 NIPP Evolution
  • Key Concepts
  • Critical infrastructure
  • Risk Environment
  • Strategic National Risk Assessment
  • Policy Environment
  • Critical Infrastructure Sectors
  • Executive Order 13636
  • PPD-8
  • Operating Environment
  • Deteriorating Critical Infrastructure Systems
  • Distributed Ownership Issues
  • Partnership Structures
  • Sector and Cross-Sector Councils
  • Sector-Specific Agencies
  • Federal and State Regulatory Agencies
  • Critical Infrastructure Owners and Operators
  • Protective Security Advisors

U.S. ENERGY SECTOR

  • U.S. Energy Sector Assets
  • Electricity
  • Electricity Generation
  • Electricity Transmission, Distribution and Control Systems
  • Transmission Lines
  • Transmission and Distribution Substations
  • Control Centers
  • Distribution Lines
  • Control Systems
  • Smart Grid Technologies
  • North American Electric Power Grid System
  • Electric Generation and Transmission Information

U.S. ELECTRIC POWER SYSTEM

  • World's Largest Integrated Machine
  • Diverse Ecosystem
  • Widespread Technological Differences
  • Power Delivery System Components
  • Reliability Issues
  • Dynamic Control
  • System Protections
  • System Interconnections
  • Increased Operational Complexity
  • Increased Digital Technology
  • Regulatory Activities
  • State Regulatory Commissions
  • Federal Energy Regulatory Commission
  • Normal Disturbances in System Operations
  • Causes of Disruptions
  • Power System Choke Points and Vulnerabilities
  • Points of Vulnerability
  • Ukraine Cyber-attacks and Blackouts

HIGH VOLTAGE TRANSFORMERS

  • Definition
  • High Voltage Transformers End-Users
  • Average Age of Installed Base
  • High Voltage Transformers in the Electric Grid
  • High Voltage Transformer Functions
  • Voltage Management in the U.S. Power System
  • Physical Characteristics of High Voltage Transformers
  • High Voltage Transformer Manufacture
  • High Voltage Transformer Cost
  • Transportation
  • Raw Materials Used in High Voltage Transformers
  • High Voltage Transformers Installed in the United States
  • Critical Nature of High Voltage Transformers
  • Physical Vulnerability of High Voltage Transformers
  • Targeting of High Voltage Transformers
  • Physical Security Measures for High Voltage Transformers
  • Sector Initiatives for High Voltage Transformer Security
  • Coordination and Information Sharing
  • Electricity Subsector Coordinating Council
  • Energy Sector Government Coordinating Council
  • Electricity Sector Information Sharing and Analysis Center
  • Critical Infrastructure Protection Committee
  • DOE's Energy Sector-Specific Plan
  • ESCC's Critical Infrastructure Strategic Roadmap
  • Transformer Equipment Programs
  • DHS Recovery Transformer Program (RecX)
  • EEI Spare Transformer Equipment Program
  • NERC Spare Equipment Database
  • Grid Security Exercises and Simulations
  • GridEx and GridEx II
  • FERC Electrically Significant Locations Study
  • High Voltage Transformer Security Standards
  • IEEE Substation Security Standard
  • NERC Physical Security Guidance
  • FERC Physical Security Best Practices
  • NERC Physical Security Regulations
  • Company-Specific Initiatives
  • Identifying Critical Transformers
  • Confidentiality of Critical Transformer Information

HIGH-IMPACT, LOW-FREQUENCY EVENTS

  • North America's Most Critical Infrastructure
  • High-Impact, Low-Frequency Events
  • Understanding HILF Risk
  • Placing HILF Risk in Context
  • Geomagnetic and Electromagnetic Events
  • Geomagnetic Disturbances
  • Electromagnetic Weapons

SOLAR STORMS

  • Overview
  • Solar Cycles
  • Sunspot Cycles and Geomagnetic Storms
  • K-Index
  • Electric Power System Is Most Critical Infrastructure
  • EHV Infrastructure Growth
  • Increased Network Voltage
  • Increased Power System Vulnerability
  • Risk Hyperbole Not Helpful
  • Geo-Magnetic Disturbances Sequence of Events
  • Geo-Magnetically Induced Currents Chain of Events
  • Operations Impact of a Large Geo-Magnetic Disturbance
  • Geo-Magnetic Storms Per Solar Cycle
  • Past Major GMD Impacts
  • Hydro Québec System 1989
  • Sweden and South Africa 2003
  • July 2012
  • May 1921
  • Carrington Event
  • Other Adverse Impacts
  • NERC Activities
  • NERC Actions and Initiatives
  • Spare Transformer Initiatives
  • Electric Power Research Institute Initiatives
  • Space Weather Infrastructure
  • Space Weather Prediction Center
  • Space Weather Forecasting Capabilities and Limitations
  • GIC Monitoring
  • EPRI Sunburst Network
  • Solar Shield
  • NERC GMD Alert Dissemination
  • SWPC Alerts, Warnings, Watches
  • NERC Alert Dissemination
  • U.S. Space Weather Strategy and National Space Weather Action Plan
  • Action Plan Structure
  • Metatech Studies
  • High Voltage Transformer Half-Cycle Saturation
  • Potential Impacts If the 1921 GMD Occurred Today
  • Impacts and System Vulnerabilities
  • IEEE Power & Energy Society Transformers Committee

ELECTROMAGNETIC PULSE ATTACKS

  • Electromagnetic Pulses
  • Nuclear EMP
  • Non-Nuclear EMP
  • HEMP Weapons
  • E1 Pulse
  • E3 Pulse
  • E3 HEMP Environment
  • E3A Blast Wave
  • E3B Heave Effect
  • Low Altitude Bursts
  • Transformers and E3 HEMP Geomagnetically Induced Current
  • Evolving Vulnerability of Electric Power Grids
  • Potential Impacts to EHV Transformers Due to E3 Threats
  • New York Region E3 Event
  • Is the HEMP Threat Fiction
  • HEMP Weapons Proliferation
  • High Power Microwaves
  • Electromagnetic Bombs
  • Flux Compression Generator and Vircator Characteristics
  • E-Bomb Proliferation
  • EMP Weapons Threat Assessment
  • HEMP-Induced Blackout
  • EMP Hardening Techniques
  • Priorities for EMP Hardening
  • Development of EMP-Resistant Manufacturing Standards

U.S. HIGH AND EXTRA HIGH VOLTAGE TRANSFORMERS INSTALLED BASE

  • Extra High Voltage Total Transformers and Total Spares Installed
  • 345 kV Installed Base
  • 450-525 kV Installed Base
  • 765 kV Installed Base

INVESTMENT TRENDS IN U.S. TRANSMISSION INFRASTRUCTURE

  • Role and Physical Characteristics of U.S. Transmission System
  • Historical and Projected Transmission Investments
  • Transmission vs. Other Electric Utility Investments
  • Circuit-Mile Additions
  • Replacing and Upgrading Aging Transmission
  • Renewables Additions to Meet RPS and the CPP Will Drive Transmission Investment
  • Transmission Investments Driven by Coal Retirements
  • Coal Retirements: Key Uncertainties Remain
  • Projected Transmission Investment Opportunities
  • Emerging Non-Incumbent Business Models
  • Recent High Voltage Transmission Projects
  • Outlook

U.S. HIGH AND EXTRA HIGH VOLTAGE TRANSFORMER MARKET

  • Market Segments
  • U.S. Electric Utility Transformer Production by Class and Voltage Rating
  • U.S. Electric Utility Transformer Production by Power Rating
  • U.S. Electric Utility Transformer Imports by Class and Voltage Rating
  • U.S. Electric Utility Transformer Imports by Power Rating
  • U.S. Electric Utility Transformer Exports by Class and Voltage Rating
  • U.S. Electric Utility Transformer Exports by Power Rating
  • U.S. Electric Utility Transformer Consumption by Class and Voltage Rating
  • U.S. Electric Utility Transformer Consumption by Power Rating
  • U.S. Electric Utility High Voltage Transformer Consumption
  • U.S. Electric Utility Extra High Voltage Transformer Consumption
  • U.S. Now Totally Dependent on Imports of Electric Utility High Voltage and Extra High Voltage Transformers
  • U.S. Electric Utility High Voltage and Extra High Voltage Transformer Market Value ($ Million), Market Volume (Units), Power (MVA), Average Selling Price ($/Unit), Growth Rate: 2015-2020
  • U.S. Electric Utility High Voltage and Extra High Voltage Transformer Market-Transmission vs. Generator Step-Up: 2015-2020
  • Competitive Environment

COMPANY PROFILES

  • ABB Ltd
  • Delta Star, Inc.
  • EFACEC Engenharia, S.A
  • Hyundai Power Transformers USA.
  • Mitsubishi Electric Power Products Inc.
  • Pennsylvania Transformer Technology Inc.
  • SPX Corporation
  • Virginia Transformer Corp.

TABLES

  • 1.) United States Critical Infrastructure Sectors
  • 2.) Sector-Specific Agencies and Critical Infrastructure Sectors
  • 3.) U.S. Energy Sector Segments
  • 4.) Major Industry Players in the U.S. Electric Industry by Class
  • 5.) Transmission Voltage Classes
  • 6.) K Index, G Scale, and Severity of Potential Power System Impacts
  • 7.) EMP Weapons Threat Assessment
  • 8.) Number of Transformers and Spare Transformers by Individual U.S. Utility Holding/Operating Companies Rated at 345 kV and Above (Units) and Market Share (%): 2014
  • 9.) Number of Transformers and Spare Transformers by Substation at Individual U.S. Utility Holding Companies and Their Individual Operating Companies Rated at 345 kV and Above by Voltage Rating (Units): 2014
  • 10.) AEP Transformers and Spare Transformers by Operating Companies and Substation Location Rated at 345 kV and Above by Voltage (Units): 2014
  • 11.) Number of Transformers and Spare Transformers by Individual U.S. Utility Holding Companies Rated at 345 kV (Units) and Market Share (%): 2014
  • 12.) Number of Transformers and Spare Transformers by Individual U.S. Utility Holding Companies Rated at 450-525kV (Units) and Market Share (%): 2014
  • 13.) Number of Transformers and Spare Transformers (Units) by Individual U.S. Utility Holding Companies Rated at 765 kV (Units) and Market Share (%): 2014
  • 14.) Distance of U.S. Transmission Lines by Voltages Over 200 kV (Miles): 2015
  • 15.) U.S. Transmission Investment Driven by Renewables ($ Billion): 2015-2025
  • 16.) Transmission Needs Driven by Coal Retirements ($ Billion): 2015-2025
  • 17.) Non-incumbent Transmission Developers Business Models
  • 18.) High Voltage Transmission Projects by Utility: 2015
  • 19.) U.S. Electric Utility Transformer Production by Class (Low/Medium Voltage, High Voltage, Extra High Voltage) and Voltage Rating ($ Million): 2015
  • 20.) U.S. Electric Utility Transformer Production by Power Rating ($ Million): 2015
  • 21.) U.S. Electric Utility Transformer Imports by Class and Voltage Rating ($ Million): 2015
  • 22.) U.S. Electric Utility Transformer Imports by Power Rating ($ Million): 2015
  • 23.) U.S. Electric Utility Transformer Exports by Class and Voltage Rating ($ Million): 2015
  • 24.) U.S. Electric Utility Transformer Exports by Power Rating ($ Million): 2015
  • 25.) U.S. Electric Utility Transformer Consumption by Class and Voltage Rating ($ Million): 2015
  • 26.) U.S. Electric Utility Transformer Consumption by Power Rating ($ Million): 2015
  • 27.) U.S. Electric Utility High Voltage Transformer Consumption ($ Million): 2015
  • 28.) U.S. Electric Utility Extra High Voltage Transformer Consumption ($ Million): 2015
  • 29.) U.S. Electric Utility High Voltage and Extra High Voltage Transformer Market Value ($ Million), Market Volume (Units), Market Power (MVA), Average Selling Price ($/Unit): 2015
  • 30.) U.S. Electric Utility High Voltage and Extra High Voltage Transformer Market Value ($ Million), Market Volume (Units), Market Power (MVA), Average Selling Price ($/Unit): 2020
  • 31.) U.S. Electric Utility High Voltage and Extra High Voltage Transformer Market Value ($ Million), Market Volume (Units), Market Power (MVA), Average Selling Price ($/Unit) Growth Rate: 2015-2020
  • 32.) U.S. Electric Utility High Voltage and Extra High Voltage Transformer Market ($ Million)-Transmission vs. Step-Up: 2015-2020
  • 33.) U.S. High Voltage and Extra High Voltage Transformer Suppliers Sales ($ Million) and Market Shares (%): 2015

FIGURES

  • 1.) Evolving Threats to U.S. Critical Infrastructure
  • 2.) Sector and Cross-Sector Coordinating Structures
  • 3.) U.S. Protective Security Advisor Locations by Region, State, City and Type
  • 4.) Overview of the U.S. Electric Power System and Control Communications
  • 5.) U.S. Primary Energy Consumption by Source and Sector (Quadrillion Btu): 2014
  • 6.) North America Power Grids
  • 7.) NERC Interconnections
  • 8.) U.S. Electrical Transmission Network Map by Voltage and Substations
  • 9.) U.S. Electric Power Grid Representation: Generation, Transmission, Distribution, Transformers
  • 10.) 345 kV Transformer Installation
  • 11.) Core-Type High Voltage Transformer Showing Major Internal Components
  • 12.) High Voltage Transformer Procurement Process and Estimated Lead Times by Stage
  • 13.) Transport of a High Voltage Transformer
  • 14.) Schnabel Car Transporting a High Voltage Transformer
  • 15.) 400 Years of Sunspot Observations
  • 16.) Sunspot Cycles and the Occurrence and Intensity (Ap index) of Large Geomagnetic Storms
  • 17.) Growth of U.S. High Voltage Transmission Lines (Miles x 1000) vs. Electric Energy Usage (Billion kWh): 1950-2000
  • 18.) U.S. High Voltage Transmission Network by Voltage Level (345kV, 500kV, 765kV) and State
  • 19.) Transmission Line Resistance (Ohms/km) by kV Rating in the U.S.
  • 20.) Coronal Mass Ejections Observed Using Coronagraphs on NASA SOHO and STEREO Spacecraft
  • 21.) Solar Electromagnetic Radiation and Energetic Particles Impact Earth's Magnetosphere and Ionosphere, Causing Space Weather Disturbances
  • 22.) Geo-Magnetic Effects on Electric Power Grids
  • 23.) SWPC information Dissemination
  • 24.) One Hundred Year Geomagnetic Storm G50 Degrees Geomagnetic Disturbance Scenario
  • 25.) Map Showing the At-Risk EHV Transformer Capacity by State for 50 Degree Geomagnetic Latitude Disturbance Scenario
  • 26.) Schematic of Various Phases of HEMP
  • 27.) Schematic of E3B Heave Phenomenology
  • 28.) Transformer MVAR Increase vs. GIC for 500kV Single Phase and 3 Phase, 3 Legged Core Form
  • 29.) Transformer MVAR Increase vs. GIC for 345kV, 500kV and 765kV Transformers
  • 30.) Installed Base Estimates of U.S. 345kV Transformers: Single Phase vs. 3 Phase (%)
  • 31.) Installed Base Estimates of U.S. 500kV transformers: Single Phase vs. 3 Phase (%)
  • 32.) Installed Base Estimates of U.S. 765kV transformers: Single Phase vs. 3 Phase (%)
  • 33.) New York Region: Location of Transformers at Risk for GIC of 200 Amps or Greater Per Phase
  • 34.) NY Region MVA Ratios of At Risk Transformers by Winding Types/Voltages (%)
  • 35.) U.S. Transmission Lines Greater Than 200 kV and Ownership by Type of Entity (%): 2015
  • 36.) U.S Transmission Investment by Investor-Owned Utilities and Stand-Alone Transmission Companies ($ Billion): 2009-2018
  • 37.) U.S. Transmission vs. Other Electric Utility Investment by Type ($ Billion): 2012-2013
  • 38.) Investor-Owned Utility Capital Expenditures by Type ($ Billion): 2014-2017
  • 39.) U.S. Circuit-Mile Additions (Thousand Miles): 1960-2017
  • 40.) Historical and Projected Circuit Miles Replaced/Upgraded and Total Projected Investment by Age ($ Million): 1990-2040
  • 41.) Forecast U.S. Transmission Investment and Variables Per Decade Through 2030 ($ Billion)
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