Abstract
AMA have published the Eighth Edition of the report "Housebuilding Market -
UK 2009" . There has been a major decline in the housing market in 2008 /
early 2009, with housebuilding volumes in severe decline as a result of the
credit crunch and falling consumer confidence. However, mid-2009 is seeing
some tentative signs of recovery and this report reviews current market
developments and provides a balanced overview of activity levels, highlighting
variations in sector and regional performance.
Key areas in the report:
- Review of Housebuilders - analysis of major housebuilders, volumes,
market shares, positioning, key housebuilding indicators, recent corporate
activity, changes in 2008, and forecasts of future trends.
- Detailed Assessment of the Housebuilding
- Market - housing starts & completions, forecast completions up to 2013,
analysis by sector (private/public), mix of houses/apartments, house prices,
house-moving market, urban regeneration, forecasts of future trends.
- Focus on Net Additional Dwellings - major
- growth of conversions / change of use, analysis of confusion in relation
to target of 240,000 new dwellings,
- Future Prospects - outlook for 2009-10. Medium term prospects, barriers
to growth.
Areas of particular interest:
- Focus on major changes in housebuilding - forecasts up to 2013.
- Government housing targets - confusion over targets (new building / net
additional housing) - significant impact of conversions, just how realistic
are Government targets??.
- Growth of affordable housing.
- The shift towards apartments and smaller dwellings.
- Low activity levels in early 2009 - prospects for recovery - timing and
scale of upturn - starts, completions, unsold stock.
- Impact of Sustainable Communities Plan, Affordable Housing Programme and
Code for Sustainable Homes and the growth of MMC and OSM.
Contractors included:
A & J Stephen (Holdings) Ltd , Abbey New Homes, Argent, AWG Property, Balfour
Beatty, Barratt Developments Plc, Bellway Plc, Berkeley Group Plc, Bewley
Homes Plc, Bloor Homes, Bovis Homes Group Plc, Britannia Developments, CALA
Group, Canary Wharf Group, Connolly Homes plc Countryside Properties Plc,
Crest Nicholson Plc, Croudace Group, David Payne Homes Ltd, Durkan Ltd, Elan
Homes, Fairview New Homes, Galliford Try Plc, Gladedale Group, Goldcrest Land
plc Haslam Homes, Hopkins Homes, Inspace Partnerships (Willmott Dixon), Jelson
Homes, Keepmoat Group, Kendrick Homes, Kier Group, Land Securities, Lang
O' Rourke, Lend Lease, MacTaggart & Mickel, McCarthy & Stone Plc, McInerney
Group, MJ Gleeson, Morgan Sindall, Morris Group, Norfolk Homes, Oakdene Homes
Plc, Persimmon Plc, Quintain, Raven Property Group, Redrow Group, Scotia
Homes, Shepherd Homes, Stewart Milne, Strata Homes, Taylor Wimpey Plc, Telford
Homes The Miller Group Ltd, Tulloch Homes, Wain Homes, Weston Homes Plc
Key areas of coverage in the report include:-
HOUSE-BUILDERS
- Overall market size, number of builders, analysis of key changes in recent
years.
- Analysis of market shares of leading housebuilders, comparisons of
changing shares in 2008/09.
- Major review of leading national housebuilders - analysis of key
indicators for UK housebuilding (completions, turnover, pre-tax profits and
average selling price), recent trends, current market position.
- Rationalisation of industry structure, mergers & acquisitions, review of
leading commercial developers in housebuilding, impact of new entrants, future
prospects etc.
- Review of the leading regional and local housebuilders, recent corporate
activity. Analysis covering turnover, pre-tax profit, completions etc.
HOUSE-BUILDING MARKET
- Overview of construction sector, output levels by sector and impact on
housebuilding, future trends.
- Current market conditions, overview of the market during 2008/09.
- Analysis by sector - Private, public, self build - volumes, changing
market mix, factors influencing the market, future trends, value of
housebuilding output by sector.
- New housing starts and completions - trends since 2000, review of market
volatility in recent years, forecasts up to 2013, analysis of completions for
public/ private sectors by region, impact of affordable housing market.
- Focus on growth of flats - rapid growth in volumes, share changes
2000-2008, future prospects (market saturation?)
- Market structure - stock of buildings in UK, ownership structure, housing
stock by age of dwelling, average property prices, residential property
transactions, land banks, increasing influence of mixed-use developments on
"brown-field" sites.
- Factors influencing the housing market - the Sustainable Communities Plan
and the Affordable Housing Programme, review of planning system, household
projections, net immigration, etc.
- Overview of factors influencing use of MMC - Product review of OSM / MMC
-, timber, steel frames, concrete - market volumes, mix (private / affordable)
and trends etc
FORECASTS - SHORTER & LONGER TERM PROSPECTS
- Forecasts of completions 2009-2013 - market volatility, short term
prospects for 2009/10 - length and severity of downturn? Long term prospects
for sector - rate of market recovery from downturn.
- Review of key factors influencing prospects - Population growth, age of
housing stock, changing household formations, affordable housing, planning
system, ' Eco towns' etc.
- Impact of downturn, role of Government / affordable housing.
- Net Additional Housing - review of housing targets in England, review of
confusion over new housebuilding and net additional housing (including
conversions and change of use ) - comparison of forecasts against targets -
scale of shortfall?
- Factors influencing timing and scale of recovery - completions, unsold
stock, starts.
Table of Contents
1. INTRODUCTION 7
2. SUMMARY & FUTURE PROSPECTS 8
3. ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT 12
- 3.1 GDP 12
- 3.2 INFLATION & INTEREST RATES 13
- 3.3 UNEMPLOYMENT 14
- 3.4 HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION 14
- 3.5 HOUSING & CONSTRUCTION 15
- 3.6 STERLING 17
- 3.7 POPULATION PROFILE 18
- 3.8 CONCLUSIONS 19
4. THE HOUSING MARKET 20
- 4.1 DEFINITION 20
- 4.2 CONSTRUCTION MARKET OVERVIEW 20
- 4.3 HOUSEBUILDING OVERVIEW 1998-2008 22
- 4.4 HOUSEBUILDING TARGETS AND PERFORMANCE 23
- 4.4.1 Net Additional Dwellings 24
- 4.4.2 Starts 30
- 4.4.3 Completions 33
- 4.4.4 Sales 35
- 4.5 REGIONAL HOUSEBUILDING - PRIVATE SECTOR 37
- 4.4.1 Starts 37
- 4.4.2 Completions 38
- 4.4.3 Sales 39
- 4.5 REGIONAL HOUSEBUILDING - PUBLIC SECTOR 41
- 4.5.1 Starts 41
- 4.5.2 Completions 42
- 4.5.3 Sales 43
- 4.6 MIX 44
- 4.6.1 Mix of Housebuilding Completions 44
- 4.6.2 Overview of Flats Market in UK 45
5. KEY INFLUENCING FACTORS 48
- 5.1 GOVERNMENT REPORT SUMMARIES 48
- 5.2 ECO TOWNS 53
- 5.3 AFFORDABILITY 56
- 5.4 AVERAGE PRICE OF NEW DWELLINGS 58
- 5.4.1 Regional Variations 59
- 5.5 RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY TRANSACTIONS 61
- 5.6 MORTGAGE LENDING 61
- 5.7 HOUSING STOCK 63
- 5.8 LAND 64
- 5.8.1 Prices and Housing Density 64
- 5.8.2 Brownfield 66
- 5.8.3 Land Ownership and Supply 69
- 5.8.4 Households 70
- 5.8.5 Housing Stock 72
- 5.8.6 Urban Regeneration 73
- 5.8.7 Household Tenure 75
6. THE HOUSEBUILDERS 77
- 6.1 OVERALL MARKET 77
- 6.2 DEFINITIONS 78
- 6.2.1 National Housebuilders 78
- 6.2.2 Contractors and Housebuilders 78
- 6.2.3 Larger Regional Housebuilders 80
- 6.2.4 Smaller Regional and Local Housebuilders 80
- 6.2.5 Developers 80
- 6.3 HOUSEBUILDERS MARKET SHARE 81
- 6.4 NATIONAL HOUSEBUILDERS 84
- 6.4.1 Company Profiles 84
- 6.4.2 2007/08 Performance Record 98
- 6.5 CONSTRUCTION GROUPS AND HOUSEBUILDERS 99
- 6.5.1 Introduction 99
- 6.5.2 Company Profiles 101
- 6.6 DEVELOPERS 104
- 6.7 REGIONAL & LOCAL HOUSEBUILDERS 105
- 6.7.1 Company Profiles 105
7. CONSTRUCTION ISSUES 109
- 7.1 CODE FOR SUSTAINABLE HOMES 109
- 7.2 MODERN METHODS OF CONSTRUCTION 110
- 7.3 TYPES OF MMC 111
- 7.3.1 OSM Suppliers 116
- 7.3.2 The future of MMC 117
TABLES AND CHARTS
- CHART 1 UK HOUSEBUILDING COMPLETIONS FORECAST 1998 - 2013 9
- CHART 2 INTEREST RATES AND INFLATION (CPI) FROM 1992-2013 13
- CHART 3 PDI & SAVINGS RATIO AT CURRENT PRICES 1992-2013 15
- TABLE 4 EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS 2002-2009 - STERLING TO THE DOLLAR, AND
THE EURO, SPOT RATES 17
- CHART 5 AGE DISTRIBUTION OF THE RESIDENT UK POPULATION 2001 CENSUS (' 000)
18
- CHART 6 NEW ORDERS OBTAINED BY CONTRACTORS BY SECTOR - GT. BRITAIN 2002
-2008 21
- CHART 7 QUARTERLY VALUE OF NEW ORDERS OBTAINED BY CONTRACTORS - 2008/09
(£M) 22
- CHART 8 HOUSING PERFORMANCE - ENGLAND 2006-08 24
- TABLE 9 COMPONENTS OF NET HOUSING SUPPLY, 2006/07 AND 2007/08, ENGLAND 26
- CHART 10 NET ADDITIONAL DWELLINGS TARGETS AND FORECASTS, ENGLAND 2000 -
2016 29
- TABLE 11 UK HOUSING STARTS 2000-2010 BY SECTOR (' 000) 32
- TABLE 12 HOUSE BUILDING COMPLETIONS 1998-2013 - UNITED KINGDOM (' 000
DWELLINGS) 34
- TABLE 13 NAHP OUTPUT FIGURES - 2008-09 35
- CHART 14 STARTS, COMPLETIONS AND SALES OF PRIVATE NEW HOUSING ENGLAND AND
WALES - 2006-2008 36
- TABLE 15 PRIVATE HOUSE BUILDING STARTS 2004-2008 ENGLISH REGIONS BY VOLUME
38
- TABLE 16 PRIVATE HOUSE BUILDING COMPLETIONS 2004-2008 ENGLISH REGIONS BY
VOLUME 39
- TABLE 17 REGIONAL RESIDENTIAL HOUSING SALES, PRIVATE SECTOR 2006-2008 40
- CHART 18 PRIVATE SECTOR - STARTS, COMPLETIONS AND SALES - 2008 41
- TABLE 19 PUBLIC SECTOR* HOUSE BUILDING STARTS 2004-2008 ENGLISH REGIONS BY
VOLUME 42
- TABLE 20 PUBLIC SECTOR* HOUSE BUILDING COMPLETIONS 2004-2008 ENGLISH
REGIONS BY VOLUME 43
- CHART 21 HOUSEBUILDING COMPLETIONS - % MIX BY HOUSES / FLATS GB 2001-2008
45
- TABLE 22 ESTIMATED NUMBER OF FLATS BUILT IN UK - 2003-08 (' 000S) 46
- TABLE 23 PROPOSED ECO-TOWN SITES - LOCATION AND PROJECTED VOLUMES 55
- TABLE 24 IMPACT OF 2016 HOUSING TARGET IN ENGLAND - VOLUME MIX BY REGION
AND MARKET AFFORDABILITY 57
- CHART 25 AVERAGE PRICE OF NEW DWELLINGS UK 1997 - 2008 (£000) 58
- TABLE 26 AVERAGE PRICE OF NEW DWELLINGS 2004-2008 BY UK REGIONS (£) 60
- CHART 27 NUMBER OF QUARTERLY RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY TRANSACTIONS - UK
2006-2009 61
- TABLE 28 AVERAGE ADVANCES BY ALL MORTGAGE LENDERS ON NEW DWELLINGS UK
1997-2008 (£' 000) 62
- TABLE 29 STOCK OF DWELLINGS (' 000) IN THE UK 1971-2007 63
- TABLE 30 AVERAGE VALUATIONS OF RESIDENTIAL BUILDING LAND WITH OUTLINE
PLANNING PERMISSION IN ENGLAND 1998 - 2008 (£' 000) 65
- CHART 31 LATENT BROWNFIELD LAND - WITH PLANNING PERMISSION 2001-2007
(HECTARES) 67
- TABLE 32 MAJOR HOUSEBUILDERS - % SCHEMES BUILT ON BROWN-FIELD SITES
2004-2007 68
- CHART 33 OWNERS OF PUBLIC SECTOR LAND SUITABLE FOR RESIDENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT, UK 70
- TABLE 34 HOUSEHOLD ESTIMATES/PROJECTIONS - ENGLAND 2004 - 2029 (' 000S) 71
- CHART 35 MIX OF STOCK OF DWELLINGS BY AGE 2007 - ENGLAND 72
- TABLE 36 HOUSEHOLD TENURE DISTRIBUTION IN THE UK, 1997 TO 2007 76
- TABLE 37 NHBC REGISTERED BUILDERS BY NUMBER OF UNITS STARTED 2004-2008 77
- TABLE 38 COMPANY MARKET SHARES IN HOUSEBUILDING 2008 81
- CHART 39 TOP 3 COMPANIES SHARE OF PRIVATE HOUSEBUILDING MARKET 1997-2008
(%) 83
- TABLE 40 KEY INDICATORS FOR UK HOUSEBUILDING - BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS PLC
(TURNOVER, PROFIT AND UNIT COMPLETIONS) - 2007/08 85
- TABLE 41 KEY INDICATORS FOR UK HOUSEBUILDING - TAYLOR WIMPEY PLC
(TURNOVER, PROFIT AND UNIT COMPLETIONS - 2007/08) 87
- TABLE 42 KEY INDICATORS FOR UK HOUSEBUILDING - PERSIMMON PLC - 2007/08 88
- TABLE 43 KEY INDICATORS UK HOUSEBUILDING - BELLWAY PLC (TURNOVER, PROFIT
AND UNIT COMPLETIONS 2007/08) 89
- TABLE 44 KEY INDICATORS UK HOUSEBUILDING - REDROW GROUP (TURNOVER, PROFIT
AND UNIT COMPLETIONS 2007-08) 90
- TABLE 45 KEY INDICATORS UK HOUSEBUILDING - GLADEDALE GROUP 91
- TABLE 46 KEY INDICATORS UK HOUSEBUILDING - MILLER HOMES (TURNOVER, PROFIT
AND UNIT COMPLETIONS 2007/08) 92
- TABLE 47 KEY INDICATORS UK HOUSEBUILDING - BOVIS HOMES GROUP PLC
(TURNOVER, PROFIT AND UNIT COMPLETIONS 2007/08) 93
- TABLE 48 KEY INDICTORS UK HOUSEBUILDING - BERKELEY GROUP PLC (TURNOVER,
PROFIT AND UNIT COMPLETIONS 2007/08) 94
- TABLE 49 KEY INDICATORS UK HOUSEBUILDING - CREST NICHOLSON PLC - 2007
(TURNOVER, PROFIT AND UNIT COMPLETIONS 2007/08) 95
- TABLE 50 KEY INDICATORS UK HOUSEBUILDING - CALA GROUP PLC (TURNOVER,
PROFIT AND UNIT COMPLETIONS 2000-2007) 96
- TABLE 51 KEY INDICATORS UK HOUSEBUILDING INDUSTRY COMPARISONS 2 YEAR
ANALYSIS 2007/08 (TURNOVER, PROFITS AND UNIT COMPLETIONS) 98
- CHART 52 CODE FOR SUSTAINABLE HOMES - CATEGORIES NECESSARY TO ACHIEVE
CODE POINTS 109
- CHART 53 UK HOUSEBUILDING MARKET - MIX BY SECTOR AND BUILD METHOD - 2008
BY VOLUME 115
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