英國再生能源(太陽能發電)市場分析(2011∼2020年) 是由出版商AMA Research在2011年11月所出版的。
這份英文市場調查報告書包含77 Pages 價格從美金1150起跳。
2010年英國引進了固定價格收購制度(Feed In Tarrif)，使家庭用的太陽能發電裝置迅速普及。制度實施後的一年間（2010年4月∼2011年3月）安裝了3萬台以上的太陽能發電裝置。安裝台數更加急速增加，預計2011年上半期將超過25000台，同年的7月∼9月期將設置34000台。
本報告提供英國的太陽能發電市場相關分析，住宅建設趨勢和氣候變動問題的對應情形等市場背景，英國國內的市場結構與趨勢，成長促進·阻礙因素，主要的相關企業簡介等等資訊彙整，為您概述為以下內容。
第1章 簡介
第2章 摘要與未來展望
第3章 經濟環境
- GDP
- 通貨膨脹·利息率
- 失業率
- 家庭消費
- 住宅·建築
- 匯率
- 人口簡介
- 結論
第4章 住宅市場
- 英國全境的住宅新建設數
- 各地區的住宅新建設數:公共部門
- 各地區的住宅新建設數:民間部門
- 修理·維修·重建(RMI)
- 自建住宅
- 住宅開工·完工數的總合
- 住宅戶數總數:現狀與2050年為止的預測
第5章 環境變動問題
- 英國的能源供給的現狀與背景
- 再生能源供給來源
- 再生能源策略
- MCS(The Microgeneration Certification Scheme:小規模發電認證方案)
- 政府的優待策略
- 太陽能發電
- 太陽能發電
- PAYS(Pay As You Save:家庭引進太陽能系統的獎勵)
- 「綠色措施」(Green Deal)
第6章 市場概況
第7章 英國市場
- 市場規模
- 市場預測
- 市場各部門
- 成長的障礙
- 推動成長因素和機會
第8章 供給·市場結構
圖表一覽
Abstract
INTRODUCTION and OVERVIEW
AMA Research are pleased to announce the publication of Renewable Energy-Solar
Thermal and Photovoltaics Market Report - UK 2011-2020 Analysis.
Since the introduction of Feed in Tariffs, the UK market for Solar Thermal and
PV systems has expanded rapidly, with 2011 experiencing exponential growth and
resulting in changes to tariff support levels.
The report contains:-
- MARKET OVERVIEW - market size for solar thermal and PV systems,
review of key market influences and analysis of current developments.
- KEY MARKET DRIVERS & BARRIERS TO GROWTH.
- REVIEW OF SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION STRUCTURE.
- FORECASTS FOR MARKET DEVELOPMENTS UP TO 2020 - volumes/product and
sector mix.
Solar thermal and PV systems are a well accepted technology in many European
countries, but overall volume demand is still relatively low in the UK -
though has grown strongly in 2010/11. Leading players are a mix of specialists
in solar systems, or parts of major groups involved in the heating industry.
In the medium term, capacity will need to increase - not only in terms of
production, but also in terms of installation capability to meet demand
projections, though 2010/11 has seen the emergence of many new entrants into
the sector.
Areas of particular interest include:-
- UK market development compared with activity in key European markets.
- Impact of FIT's (Feed in Tariffs) on demand for Solar PV in particular -
exponential growth in 2011
- Other Government incentives to stimulate developments in the renewable
energy sector.
- Overview of market drivers and barriers to growth in UK - key
opportunities and constraints.
- Emergence of new entrants and routes to market in 2010/11
- Residential sector overview - new build, self build, etc.
- Market forecasts up to 2020 - volumes, key sectors, tariff changes etc.
Key areas of coverage in the report include:-
KEY MARKET INFLUENCES
- Housing market structure, UK dwelling stock, housing stock mix by
age (2007/2050).
- Growth in proportion of owner-occupied housing.
- Government Incentives - Low Carbon Buildings Programme (LCBP).
Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) scheme, Feed-In-Tariffs (FIT's), PAYS (Pay As
You Save), Green Deal, Code for Sustainable Homes etc. Changes to FIT's in
2011.
- Provision of financial support - changes in government policy.
CLIMATE CHANGE ISSUES
- Strategies to combat climate change: the EU Renewable Energy
Directive, the UK Renewable Energy Strategy, Code for Sustainable Homes,
Warmer Homes Standard.
- Establishment of Renewable Energy Deployment programme. Overview of
Renewable Energy market in UK - alternative options - other microgeneration
technologies.
SOLAR THERMAL AND PV MARKET
- UK Solar Thermal and PV overview - product definitions, overview of
market - by area and number of installations, values 2007-10.
- Flat plate /vacuum tube - share by product - performance, key
drivers etc.
- European market overview - market size for Solar Thermal Collector
Plates and Solar PV by volume 2007 -2010 in key EU markets, share by major
country (comparisons of take-ups, reasons for success in Germany, Austria,
Spain, Italy etc). European and UK growth rates.
- UK Solar Thermal and PV market review - background to recent growth
in demand - market size by unit sales and value 2007-10, performance in 2011,
mix by solar thermal and PV, mix by UK region and reasons for variation.
Review of key market drivers, impact of RHI / Feed in Tariffs, PAYS schemes
etc, competition from other renewables.
- Analysis of UK by sector - residential, industrial/ commercial/ public
sectors - share by sector 2010 - recent trends, future projections,
key drivers in each sector, review of self build market, gas / off-gas areas.
- Barriers to growth - supply chain issues, payback periods,
installation, new build/replacement, performance, consumer awareness, etc.
- Forecasts up to 2020 - alternative views, volume projections for
2010-2020, range of key influencing factors. Forecasts of growth rates vary
considerably dependent on key issues.
SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION STRUCTURE
- Key players - suppliers, manufactures, installers - market
fragmentation.
- UK distribution structure - key routes to market - changes in
supply and distribution.
- New entrants - market opportunities.
SUMMARY OF REPORT CONTENTS
Solar Photovoltaics (PV) is considered to be a market with significant
potential in the UK because there are very few planning issues and, if costs
were reduced, almost 4% of UK electricity could be supplied using this
technology - in addition carbon emissions could be reduced by 3%. However, if
Photovoltaics is to become a commercially viable product, significant
government support and incentives will be required, combined with major cost
reductions to improve investment paybacks. The Feed-in Tariff scheme was
introduced by the Government in 2010 and has had a major positive effect on
the sector during its first 18 months to September 2011.
Our estimates indicate that in 2009 there were annual sales of around 6,000 -
7,000 photovoltaic units and around 24,000 solar thermal units into
residential, commercial and industrial applications. Solar thermal is
dominant, reflecting lower costs and wider usage in domestic properties,
compared with much higher investment costs in PV installations - though the
balance is changing rapidly in 2011.
Feed-In Tariffs (FIT's) became effective from April 2010, as a means of
increasing the market value of both renewable electricity and renewable heat.
As a result of these changes, the marketing efforts by a wide range of
companies have been significant in promoting the benefits of all renewable
technologies, with solar well placed to provide solutions in both residential
and non-residential applications.
At the time of report publication, DECC has announced a virtual 50% reduction
in tariffs to take effect from 12th December 2011. While some reduction has
been anticipated, the scale and speed of the change has caused widespread
concern in the sector that the development of the industry will be
significantly impacted. The changes are subject to discussion with
consultation due to close by December 23rd .
According to Ofgem, in the first twelve months of the Feed-in Tariff scheme
(April 2010- March 2011) more than 30,000 renewable installations were
registered with FIT Licensees. In the fourth quarter of FIT Year 1 alone
(January-March 2011), 11,824 FIT installations were registered, which
represents a 30% increase in the number of installations registered in just
the third quarter. Renewable installations include Hydro, Photovoltaics, Wind,
Micro CHP and Anaerobic Digestion, but by far the largest share of total
installations in 2010/11 was taken by Photovoltaics at around 94%.
Given that the annual sales of PV in 2009 were around 6,500 units, the Feed-in
Tariff scheme has certainly made a significant impact in its first year with
sales increasing rapidly to over 25,000 installations in the first half of
2011 - with provisional estimates of around 34,000 installations in the
July-September 2011 quarter.
In terms of future prospects, the changes to tariff levels have thrown any
market projections into turmoil. A wide range of scenarios have been
highlighted already and our forecasts are assuming a significant reduction in
2012, though medium term growth projections are still high to meet targets in
the UK. Current Government forecasts are to achieve around 800,000
installations by 2020, which would represent a major growth on 2009 levels but
given performance in 2010/11 it is clear the impact of the recent FIT scheme
indicates the potential for strong growth exists in the UK - if the subsidies
are sustained at an 'attractive level' .
In contrast to Solar PV, solar thermal has seen some significant decline in
the majority of European countries in the last 2 years although in the UK
there has been growth in both 2009 (10%) and in 2010 (18%). The government's
aim is that the recent introduction of the Renewable Heat Incentive will help
drive a significant increase in the level of renewable heat and that by 2020,
12% of heating will be generated from renewable sources, saving up to 44
million tonnes of carbon (MtCO2) by 2020. Market growth for solar, therefore,
will be heavily dependent on a combination of installation costs and grants
and subsidies to encourage significant market acceptance, with many industry
participants encouraged by recent interest levels. However, the recent
proposed changes have severely dented market optimism and it is difficult to
assess the full impact, at least in the short term, if the changes are fully
implemented.
Table of Contents
CONTENTS and LIST OF TABLES & CHARTS
1 INTRODUCTION
- 1.1 BACKGROUND
- 1.2 SOURCES OF INFORMATION
2 SUMMARY AND FUTURE PROSPECTS
3 ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
- 3.1 GDP
- 3.2 INFLATION & INTEREST RATES
- 3.3 UNEMPLOYMENT
- 3.4 HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION
- 3.5 HOUSING & CONSTRUCTION
- 3.6 STERLING
- 3.7 POPULATION PROFILE
- 3.8 CONCLUSIONS
4 THE HOUSING MARKET
- 4.1 NEW NATIONAL HOUSEBUILDING
- 4.2 NEW REGIONAL HOUSEBUILDING - PUBLIC SECTOR
- 4.3 NEW REGIONAL HOUSEBUILDING - PRIVATE SECTOR
- 4.4 RMI
- 4.5 SELF BUILD
- 4.6 MIX OF HOUSEBUILDING STARTS AND COMPLETIONS
- 4.7 HOUSING STOCK - CURRENT AND FORECASTS UP TO 2050
5 CLIMATE CHANGE ISSUES
- 5.1 BACKGROUND & CURRENT ENERGY SUPPLIES IN THE UK
- 5.1.1 Renewable Sources of Energy
- 5.1.2 Renewable Energy Strategy
- 5.1.3 The Microgeneration Certification Scheme (MCS)
- 5.2 GOVERNMENT INCENTIVES
- 5.2.1 Solar PV
- 5.2.2 Solar Thermal
- 5.2.3 PAYS
- 5.2.4 Green Deal
6 MARKET OVERVIEW
- 6.1 SOLAR PV
- 6.2 SOLAR THERMAL
7 UK MARKET
- 7.1 MARKET SIZE
- 7.1.1 Solar PV
- 7.1.2 Solar Thermal
- 7.2 MARKET FORECASTS
- 7.2.1 Solar PV
- 7.2.2 Solar Thermal
- 7.3 MARKET SECTORS
- 7.3.1 Residential
- 7.3.2 Commercial, Public and Industrial Sectors.
- 7.4 BARRIERS TO GROWTH
- 7.5 GROWTH DRIVERS / OPPORTUNITIES
8 SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION STRUCTURE
- 8.1 KEY MANUFACTURERS AND SUPPLIERS
- 8.2 KEY DISTRIBUTORS AND INSTALLERS
Tables and Charts
- CHART 1 SOLAR PV INSTALLATIONS APRIL 2010 - SEPTEMBER 2011 - GT. BRITAIN
- CHART 2 INTEREST RATES AND INFLATION (CPI) FROM 1992-2015
- CHART 3 PDI & SAVINGS RATIO AT CURRENT PRICES 1992-2015
- TABLE 4 EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS 2006-2011 - STERLING TO THE DOLLAR, AND
THE EURO, SPOT RATES
- CHART 5 AGE DISTRIBUTION OF THE RESIDENT UK POPULATION MID-2008 ('000)
- TABLE 6 HOUSE BUILDING COMPLETIONS 2000-2010 - UNITED KINGDOM ('000
DWELLINGS)
- TABLE 7 PUBLIC SECTOR* HOUSE BUILDING STARTS 2004-2010 ENGLISH REGIONS BY
VOLUME
- TABLE 8 PRIVATE HOUSE BUILDING STARTS 2005-2010 ENGLISH REGIONS BY VOLUME
- CHART 9 DOMESTIC CONSTRUCTION OUTPUT GROWTH (NEW BUILD AND RMI) AND
FORECASTS 2005 TO 2015 - BY VALUE (£ MILLION AT CURRENT PRICES)
- CHART 10 UK SELF-BUILD MARKET - COMPLETIONS BY VOLUME 2005-2015
- CHART 11 HOUSING TYPES - STARTS AND COMPLETIONS - ENGLAND 2006-2010
- CHART 12 HOUSEBUILDING COMPLETIONS - % MIX BY HOUSES / FLATS ENGLAND
2001-2011
- CHART 13 MIX OF STOCK OF DWELLINGS BY AGE 2007 - ENGLAND
- TABLE 14 UK HOUSING STOCK PROFILE - COMPARISONS BY AGE PROFILE 2007 AND
2050 - VOLUME OF DWELLINGS (MILLIONS)
- CHART 15 FUEL INPUT FOR ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY MILLION TONNES OF OIL
EQUIVALENT (TOE) 1989-2009
- CHART 16 POSSIBLE FUTURE ENERGY GENERATION MIX BY FUEL TYPE 2020 (GAS,
NUCLEAR, RENEWABLES, COAL, OTHERS)
- CHART 17 ELECTRICITY GENERATION FROM RENEWABLE SOURCES (%) (WIND,
BIOFUELS, HYDRO, PHOTOVOLTAICS ETC)
- TABLE 18 CODE LEVELS 1-6 BUILD COST PREMIUMS BY BUILDING TYPE AND LEVEL
- TABLE 19 SOLAR PV SYSTEMS - CURRENT AND PROPSED TARIFF LEVELS (SEPTEMBER
2011 AND DECEMBER 2011)
- TABLE 20 SOLAR PV TARIFF LEVELS 2010-2021 (AS AT SEPTEMBER 2011)
- TABLE 21 SOLAR THERMAL - TARIFF RATES
- CHART 22 CUMULATIVE INSTALLED SOLAR PV POWER (MW) IN KEY EUROPEAN
COUNTRIES (INCL. GT. BRITAIN) 2010
- TABLE 23 ANNUAL INSTALLED PV CAPACITY 2007 - 2010 BY KEY EUROPEAN
COUNTRIES (INCL. GT. BRITAIN) - MEGA WATTS
- CHART 24 SOLAR THERMAL - INSTALLED COLLECTOR AREA - SHARE BY TYPE (FLAT
PLATE & VACUUM) - UK 2010 SQ.M2
- CHART 25 INSTALLED CAPACITY OF SOLAR THERMAL COLLECTOR BY AREA - KEY
EUROPEAN MARKETS (INCL. UK) - 2010
- TABLE 26 INSTALLATION & GROWTH RATES OF SOLAR THERMAL COLLECTOR AREA
INSTALLED CAPACITY (M2) - KEY EUROPEAN MARKETS (INCL. UK) - 2008 - 2010
- CHART 27 SOLAR PV INSTALLATIONS APRIL 2010 - SEPTEMBER 2011 - GT. BRITAIN
- CHART 28 SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC INSTALLATIONS INTO RESIDENTIAL HOUSING, -
ESTIMATED SHARE BY COUNTRY 2010
- CHART 29 SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC INSTALLATIONS INTO RESIDENTIAL HOUSING, 2010 -
ESTIMATED SHARE BY ENGLISH REGION
- TABLE 30 HOUSEHOLDS, HOUSING COMPLETIONS AND RESIDENTIAL PV INSTALLATIONS
- BY ENGLISH REGIONS - 2010
- CHART 31 ESTIMATED SOLAR THERMAL INSTALLATIONS 2006-10 - UK
- CHART 32 SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC INSTALLATIONS INTO RESIDENTIAL HOUSING, -
ESTIMATED SHARE BY COUNTRY 2010
- CHART 33 FORECAST OF ANNUAL AND CUMULATIVE SOLAR PV INSTALLATIONS (d" 4KW)
2010 -2020, BY VOLUME, GREAT BRITAIN.
- CHART 34 FORECAST OF ANNUAL AND CUMULATIVE SOLAR THERMAL INSTALLATIONS
2010 -2020, BY VOLUME, GREAT BRITAIN
- CHART 35 HOUSING STOCK NOT CONNECTED TO THE GAS GRID -GT. BRITAIN, 2009
- CHART 36 NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS ON AND OFF THE MAINS GAS NETWORK
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